Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Chess - Putin Vs The Ukraine, EU -- Natural Gas -- July 23, 2014

I'm not sure I have this right, but in a nutshell this sounds like what is going on between Russia and the Ukraine with regard to natural gas.

Because the Ukraine is in arrears with regard to payments for natural gas to Gazprom (Russia), Russia instituted a "prepayment" plan in which the Ukraine needs to pay for their natural gas before they receive it.

Natural gas normally flows west from Russia through the Ukraine to Europe. Europe receives 30% of its natural gas from Russia. Obviously, as the natural gas passes through the Ukraine, that country receives its allotment. However, plans for Europe to help the Ukraine pay for their natural gas failed, and the Ukraine remains in arrears. If unable to pre-pay, the Ukraine will not get natural gas from Russia.

Apparently the EU "is reversing" the flow of natural gas from Europe back to the Ukraine.

Which brings us up to today.

The Ukraine is reporting that natural gas flows from Europe have decreased. Reuters is reporting:
Ukrainian Energy Minister Yuri Prodan said on Wednesday reverse gas flows from the European Union to Ukraine had fallen because of threats by Russian gas producer Gazprom.
Ukraine first saw the decrease two weeks ago.
He said reverse supplies stood at 7 million cubic metres daily on Wednesday versus a possible 18 million.
Related stories:
  • RT, July 1, 2014 -- Putin argues there is "no reverse natural gas flow"; rather, "Ukraine has concocted a plan with its western partners by paying for gas European customers do not receive."
  • Reuters, also today (July 23, 2014, with an added data point): On April 28 Bratislava and Ukraine signed a deal allowing the EU to send a limited amount of gas to Ukraine. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said combined reverse flows from Slovakia, Hungary and Poland could reach up to around 16-17 bcm annually. 
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Apple

I did not know this, or if I did, I forgot: Tim Cook worked for IBM for 12 years before coming to Apple.  The Apple-IBM partnership may just be the "sleeper" story of the year.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you may have read here. I have never owned shares in AAPL or traded in AAPL shares. However, I am Apple's #3 fanboy. Grew up with them; love them.

Reason #14,888 Why I Love To Blog: Trivia -- Oasis Wells Named After Major League Baseball Players

Perhaps I was the last to notice this but I haven't seen any articles on this. Oasis appears to be naming a series of wells after major league baseball players, many of which were left-handed players (or that may simply be coincidental). Here are some of the names of major league baseball players for whom Oasis appears to have named wells (some of the names are common and may simply be coincidental):
  • Mangum
  • Musial -- left-handed
  • Sheffield
  • Gonzalez
  • Bench
  • Ripken, Jr
  • Carter
  • Wolf
  • Evans
  • Snider
  • Palmeiro
  • Matthews
  • Sosa
  • Maris -- batted left, threw right
  • Mantle
  • Robinson
  • Banks
  • Williams
  • Kingman
  • Aaron
  • Ruth
  • Bonds
  • Schmidt
  • McGwire
  • Killebrew
  • Mays
  • Jackson
  • Thomas
  • Hodges
  • Ott
  • Winfield
  • Griffey, Jr
  • McGriff
  • Gehrig -- left-handed
  • Kuykendall
  • Karst
  • Buxbaum
  • Andrews
  • Link
  • White
  • Patsy (possibly)
  • Slagle
  • Snuffy
  • Kiner
  • Payette (a stretch; Harmon Killebrew was born in Payette, Idaho)
  • Kline
  • Flynn
  • A. Johnson
  • Shields
  • Johnny Schmitz -- left-handed
  • Lefty

XTO Reports A "High-IP" Well; Oasis Reports Two Gushers; Other Great Wells; Six (6) New Permits -- July 23, 2014; GM Profits Falls 85%, Huge Earnings Miss

Active Rigs, Thursday, July 24, 2014


7/24/201407/24/201207/24/201107/24/201007/24/2008
Active Rigs19220818113877

 RNB Energy

Our estimate based on the April 2014 run rate of 95 percent indicates that Houston area refineries will have roughly 21 crude storage days of capacity available to them in 2016. If those same refineries operate at 89 percent capacity – the monthly average level from January 2010 to April 2014, then refinery throughput in Houston would be 2.4 MMb/d and storage days would increase to 22.5 (assuming 54 MMBbl of storage). From our earlier analysis recall that days storage for the Gulf Coast region as a whole were 32 i.e. about 10 days higher on average than for the Houston area.
Flying Back Into Tel Aviv

Well, that didn't last long. FAA says it is now okay for American commercial aircraft to fly into Tel Aviv. I guess SecState John Kerry was being used to test the system when he flew in under the ban. And survived.

Doomsday Chronicles

The economic recovery has saved a lot of cities. It's been a long time since I've added a new city or updated an existing city over at Doomsday: US Cities. Atlantic City, NJ, makes the list.

The Market
 
I was absolutely amazed how the market reacted to one of the best quarters ever reported by AAPL -- meh! Frankly, I was astounded. I wrote:
Apple had one of its best quarters yet, and it hardly made news, with earnings soundly beating expectations.  
After being out and about this afternoon, I came home and checked the news. What a pleasant surprise:
Stocks ended mostly higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 closing at a record on Apple's bullish results.
AAPL closed at a new record high, closing in on $100/share. It may take some time, but eventually the market gets these things right.

So, what's on tap for tomorrow? Earnings for:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.
 
The Daily Activity Report From North Dakota Oil Patch

Wells coming off confidential list Thursday:
  • 25688, 1,750, Oasis, Mangum 5493 44-7 T3, Robinson Lake, t1/14; cum 79K 5/14;
  • 26129, 2,525, Oasis, Lefty 5200 14-30 3B, Camp, t4/14; cum 27K 5/14;
  • 26275, 673, Fidelity, Carissa 27034H, Stanley, t2/14; cum 24K 5/14;
  • 26276, 799, Fidelity, CJ 27-34H, Stanley, t1/14; cum 39K 5/14;
  • 26277, 474, Oasis, Edwin 5601 44-24T, Tyrone, t3/14; cum 14K 5/14;
  • 26503, 635, Oasis, Hendricks 5602 43-36 3B, Tyrone, t5/14; cum --
  • 27203, 2,067, XTO, McCoy 44X-36D, Siverston, t6/14; cum --
  • 27298, 238, CLR, Brodal 1-36H, Noonan, t4/14; cum 8K 5/14;
  • 27493, 336, Slawson, Tempest 3-14H, Big Bend, t3/14; cum 12K 5/14;
************************************************

25688, see above, Oasis, Mangum 5493 44-7 T3, Robinson Lake:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2014178170
4-2014143510
3-2014208960
2-2014180960
1-201466330

26129, see above, Oasis, Lefty 5200 14-30 3B, Camp:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20141134110391
4-20141541311552

Active rigs:



7/23/201407/23/201207/23/201107/23/201007/23/2008
Active Rigs19420918213874

Six (6) new permits --
  • Operators: Newfield (2), Petro-Hunt (2), Whiting, Legacy
    Fields: Siverston (Dunn), Little Knife (Dunn), Sanish (Mountrail), North Souris (Bottineau)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Bad news: Bakken production to be stifled if new railcar rules go into effect -- RBN Energy (in an earlier post). Today, the Obama administration announced the bad news. Bloomberg reports

Good news: in two years there will be a gazillion miles of new Bakken pipeline.

The Wall Street Journal 

Finally, international pressure on Hamas to stop firing rockets.

IRS: hey, maybe we found some Lois Lerner back-up tapes that weren't destroyed after all.

ObamaCare plaintiffs: one plaintiff has argued he was hurt by the Affordable Care Act even though he could have paid as little as $20 a year for coverage. I guess he had his own definition of "affordable."

Malaysian Airlines flew directly over some of the hottest fighting in eastern Ukraine. What were they thinking? 

US extends ban on carriers flying into Tel Aviv for another 24 hours.

President Obama has sent additional military advisers to Iraq.

GM plans six more recalls. I honestly can't recall if these are the recalls I just posted in an earlier posting; I am losing track of all the recalls by this one "company."

Los Angeles Times

Top story all about Gaza, Israel.  

Algerian airliner falls off radar scope; 116 on-board.

FAA lifts restrictions on flying into Tel Aviv.

Government Motors Has Broken The Code: Bring Customers Into The Dealer By Issuing Recalls -- July 23, 2014

In an earlier report which I did not link (because I was too busy at the time, no doubt) mentioned that GM dealers were seeing increased sales and increased interest in GM products when customers walked into their dealerships. Well, duh.

A quick way to get these folks into the dealership: issue recalls. The AP is reporting:
General Motors issued six more recalls on Wednesday, bringing its annual total to 60 recalls covering almost 30 million vehicles.

The latest recalls cover almost 718,000 cars and trucks. The largest is for faulty seats in just over 414,000 cars and small SUVs. Other problems include incomplete welds on seat brackets, turn signal failures, power steering failures, loose suspension bolts and faulty roof rack bolts.
GM is conducting a company-wide safety review as it tries to correct a dysfunctional corporate culture in which safety was a low priority. [And increase sales, one might add.]
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Speaking of Spin, Which We Weren't

Is this not incredible spin? The president's poll numbers are down to 42% approval -- pretty dismal for the first African-American president who had so much going for himself when he assumed office.

But CNN thinks those numbers are "okay" -- considering:
.... it looks like Obama has not experienced a similar drop in the summer of 2014, in part because his numbers already took that hit last year, and have stabilized since then.
The writer must be a Scandinavian. Our most commonly-used phrase is "it could be worse." LOL.

If the truth were told, I don't think many people even care any more what his poll numbers are any more. Hello! He's not running for a third term. Like all lame-duck presidents, his "value" is now in fund-raising and selecting the site for his presidential library.

I wonder if 85% of the US population can even name the current president? That's one "jay-walk" Mr Leno was afraid to take.

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No Spin

According to Breitbart:
According to the Detroit News, anti-capitalism "everyman" filmmaker Michael Moore owns 9 homes. On top of a $2 million, 10,000 square foot lakefront mansion in Torch Lake, Michigan, there is a Manhattan condo that was once 3 condos, and 7 other properties. 
I don't quite see it the same way Brietbart sees it; this does not seem particularly excessive for a multi-millionaire. If he were pro-capitalism he would be much richer and might be able to afford many more McMansions, some the size of the Algore mansion, which I'm told is 10,000 square feet, but energy efficient. The help staff is instructed to reduce-reuse-recycle.

War On Coal, US, Australia, And Common Sense -- July 23, 2014

Earlier I posted:
I doubt many folks will read the RBN Energy blog today: Burning natural gas this summer -- bluntly put: Texas will consume its own stored supplies to meet in-State needs first – depriving other States of a helping hand if need be. So low storage levels in Texas will likely have more impact out of State than in. Buried in that long post:
By October 2013, Texas’s stored gas had rebounded to 730 Bcf (only 2% less than its fall-of-2012 peak) but by March of this year in-state storage levels had plummeted to 418 Bcf, 26% lower than a year earlier and the lowest in the state since February 2004
Texas, with the most natural gas storage in the United States (in the world?), reported 26% lower storage of natural gas than a year early and the lowest in the state since February 2004. 
I don't think the word "coal" was mentioned it the RBN Energy post, but one can't explain away that dismal figure simply due to "the weather" (the polar vortex). Clearly there is something else going on. Yes, it's not that difficult to figure out: the war on coal is succeeding here in the US, and all that promised solar/wind energy simply cannot keep up.
Again, seldom reported: utilities need to add one-half MW of fossil fuel capacity for every one MW of solar/wind energy brought on-line for those periods (like all night) when the sun is not shining, and the wind is blowing too fast or too slow. 
The big story is not that natural gas stores are depleted; the big story is "why."
Don just sent me an interesting Motley Fool story that touches on this. Motley Fool is reporting:
The Australian Broadcast Corporation, Australia's public broadcaster, reports that electricity providers in that country are actually switching back to coal as the international price of natural gas is making coal a more cost-effective fuel to generate electricity
ABC also reports that Australian domestic gas prices may triple by 2021 as domestic producers elect to export gas to higher value international markets. 
Meanwhile, here in the states:
U.S. natural gas currently sits at about $4.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) as reported by the EIA, with futures even lower as reported by Bloomberg.
However, the international price of natural gas, as reported by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is much higher than the U.S. price.
Natural gas in Asia and South America can be as much as three times the U.S. price, likely prompting U.S. domestic producers to develop export markets in pursuit of higher prices.
In addition, even in the U.S., the converted energy cost of coal is significantly lower than natural gas, as reported by FERC, potentially pushing the U.S. electricity generators back to coal. [Presidents come and go. Common sense tends to remain common.]
Motley Fool then goes into "clean coal" projects and carbon capture/CO2 EOR which have already been reported on the blog. Both projects are in ... drum roll ... drum roll ... Texas and one of the projects is being underwritten by the Obama administration. The other project is a joint project with Japan's JX Nippon.

******************************
North Dakota Crude Oil Production and Exponential Production

From Calculus: Single Variable, Deborah Huges-Hallett (Harvard University) and Andrew W. Gleason (Harvard University), c. 1998, p. 14:
Whenever we have a constant growth factor, we have exponential growth
Month-over-month, the oil production in North Dakota increases by about 2 percent. Rarely, the month-to-month growth declines (from early winter to late winter, for example), and often the rate is significantly more than 2 percent month-over-month. But I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that over time, the month-over-month increase in North Dakota oil production has been exponential.

So far this year:

Month bopd % change
Dec-13 923227
Jan-14 935126 1.29%
Feb-14 952055 1.81%
Mar-14 977178 2.64%
Apr-14 1001149 2.45%
May-14 1039635 3.84%



Production change by month for all of 2012 and 2013 can be found here. The numbers may be very, very slightly "off" due to fact that the monthly production numbers are revised following the initial report. I don't always have the most current data, but it's very, very close. Close enough for retired government employees.

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A Note for the Granddaughters

One of my favorite pastimes with our granddaughters is to work with math with them, which we try to do every day. We probably succeed four days out of seven, which is not bad. We have not less than three different "series" of math texts and/or workbooks for the summer. She says she loves geometry so we have a separate book on geometry. We started going through the book, working the problems, but due to the short time left before they leave for a few weeks, I have been going through the book, not doing the problems, but just going over the concepts. Her memory is such that I am convinced that when she starts getting into geometry sometime in the next three years in middle school, she will say, "oh, yes, I remember that." Much of math is the fear of the unknown, I think.

On the other hand, her dad has the Singapore Math Series for her which she must do as prescribed, not skipping any problems or any pages: the textbook, the workbook, and the intensive practice book.

I was surprised how quickly the word problems became exceedingly more difficult after starting out with quite easy problems. She has not had algebra yet, but we have gradually been introducing the concept. When I saw the following problem, I could only solve it using algebra:
The total cost of 5 CDs and 3 video tapes was $169.20. The total cost of a CD and a video tape was $43.80. If I bought 3 CDs and 5 video tapes and paid with two $100 bills, how much change would I receive. 
Obviously, once one figures out the cost of a single CD or a single video tape, the rest is just "busy work."

Our older granddaughter, studied the problem for awhile, and then came up with a way to solve the problem without using algebra, and I am convinced that was exactly what Singapore Math expected. The series had not yet introduced algebra but yet there was a fairly simple, albeit somewhat tedious, way to solve the problem without using algebra.

I was pretty impressed with her reasoning. 

Weekly Petroleum Report -- EIA -- July 23, 2014

For week ending July 18, 2014.

Some data points:
  • crude oil inputs averaged 28,000 bopd less than previous week
  • refineries operating at 94% capacity -- high capacity
  • gasoline production increased by 9 million bbls per day (nice)
  • crude oil imports down 20,000 bopd
  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 4 million bbls last week
  • total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million bbls last week
Unremarkable.

Unremarkable except that the Obama administration says US refineries are processing a record amount of crude oil. Bakken.com is reporting:
The Energy Information Administration has reported that U.S. refineries have been processing record amounts of oil. Within the past two weeks refinery inputs have exceeded the previous record from the summer of 2005.
Refineries located in the Midwest and Gulf Coast have helped push the increase in production. This is due to the increased access to lower-cost crude oil, improved refining capacities, the growth of domestic demand as well as an increased demand for exports.
In the past Gulf Coast refineries had processed the majority of the Midwest’s gasoline, but because of changes to pipeline infrastructure, the type of product being shipped and the direction of its flow, more incentive has been created for refineries in the Midwest to expand gasoline production.
Gasoline demand graphs here. A bit of "demand destruction"?

*************************************
Free-Market Capitalism: Fold, Fold, Fold

This little origami kiosk is generating $11 in sales/hour.



Random Update On An Incredible Halcon Well, McGregory Buttes -- July 23, 2014

Over at "Things To Follow Up On," here's the update on an incredible Halcon well:

#20879 has two laterals, drilled at separate times. They have different names: -1H and -2H but yet carry the same permit number, #20879.
  • 20879, 2,709/A/IA, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-1A-12-2H, McGregory Buttes, t1/14; cum 486K 10/18; back off-line 9/18;
From the well file back in early 2013:
Frac Notes: Plug & Perf - 30 stages planned. At Stage 2, a 2,000 psi drop was observed, previous well operator, Petro-Hunt, directed contractor HES to repair sand conveyor belt, no ball seated at Stage 3. Job was shutdown by P-H anticipating a casing or tool string failure. Well to be TA'd by current operator until final cost of casing repair is determined. In March and April 2013, well flowed naturally for 4 and 13 days, respectively, and is no longer flowing. 
From the well file while drilling the lateral: gas levels at this point in the lateral were already quite [high], often averaging over 3,000 units and sometimes exceeding 9,000 units.... but was probably due to "bad" gas detector. Later, gas readings were down to 600 units with burst flares of 10 - 15 feet.


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20143125227252991039915775328012278
BAKKEN4-20143025081249701286122524184203894
BAKKEN3-20143136784368171465032178319610
BAKKEN2-20142848122478822140939899366563047
BAKKEN1-2014132532624891219161627663449841
BAKKEN12-20130000000
BAKKEN11-20130000000
BAKKEN10-20131042150700
BAKKEN9-20130000000
BAKKEN8-20130000000
BAKKEN7-20130000000
BAKKEN6-20130000000
BAKKEN5-20130000000
BAKKEN4-201313372733061250286802777
BAKKEN3-20134966966896794079

For Investors Only -- July 23, 2014; Today's Investment Buzz: CVX; Could The US Have Prevented The Malaysian Airlines Shoot-Down? Probably

Trading at new highs today: AAPL, BK, BAX, CVX, COP, ENB (at almost $50), EPD (at almost $80), HAL, HES (over $100), KOG, MRO (over $40), NOV, Newfield, PAA, REX, UNP, WLL.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Apple had one of its best quarters yet, and it hardly made news, with earnings soundly beating expectations.  I don't invest in or trade AAPL shares, never have, never will. Simply missed that one twenty years ago.

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Today's Investment Buzz

Zacks is reporting:
One stock that might be an intriguing choice for investors right now is Chevron Corporation (CVX).
This is because this security in the Oil-International Integrated space is seeing solid earnings estimate revision activity, and is in great company from a Zacks Industry Rank perspective.
This is important because, often times, a rising tide will lift all boats in an industry, as there can be broad trends taking place in a segment that are boosting securities across the board.
This is arguably taking place in the Oil-International Integrated space as it currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 34 out of more than 250 industries, suggesting it is well-positioned from this perspective, especially when compared to other segments out there.
Meanwhile, Chevron is actually looking pretty good on its own too. The firm has seen solid earnings estimate revision activity over the past month, suggesting analysts are becoming a bit more bullish on the firm’s prospects in both the short and long term. In fact, over the past 60 days, current quarter estimates have risen from $2.71 per share to $2.73 per share, while current year estimates have risen from $10.74 per share to $10.77 per share.
The company currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which is also a favorable signal.
Chevron reports August 1, 2014.


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Sanctions? What Sanctions?

Britain is still authorizing the export of arms and military equipment to Russia despite the government's call for tough sanctions over Moscow's arming of separatist rebels in Ukraine, a group of lawmakers said in a report Wednesday.
I assume the Russian separatists need to replace the ground-to-air missiles they've been said to be firing. 

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Could Lightning Strike Twice?

Motley Fool is reporting:
That being said, what's attractive about Sempra Energy isn't so much its elephant size but its gazelle-like speed with which its growing earnings. Its current plan should generate 9%-11% compound annual earnings growth through the end of the decade. That's about double what the average utility will do over that same timeframe. However, despite the speedy growth profile, Sempra Energy's risk profile is similar to its utility peers as it's focused on assets that generate stable, predictable earnings and cash flow. It only invests in projects that are supported by long-term, fixed-price contracts with credit-worthy counterparties.
The other reason Sempra Energy is attractive is because it's focusing a good portion of that growth on renewables. Currently the company has 1,082 megawatts of wind generation along with 300 megawatts of solar capacity in operation at its U.S. Gas & Power subsidiary, as the following map shows.
Hopefully not: SRE pays an attractive yield which will only increase over time. BRK pays no dividend and never will.

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Big Story For The Day

I doubt many folks will read the RBN Energy blog today: Burning natural gas this summer -- bluntly put: Texas will consume its own stored supplies to meet in-State needs first – depriving other States of a helping hand if need be. So low storage levels in Texas will likely have more impact out of State than in. Buried in that long post:
By October 2013, Texas’s stored gas had rebounded to 730 Bcf (only 2% less than its fall-of-2012 peak) but by March of this year in-state storage levels had plummeted to 418 Bcf, 26% lower than a year earlier and the lowest in the state since February 2004
Texas, with the most natural gas storage in the United States (in the world?), reported 26% lower storage of natural gas than a year early and the lowest in the state since February 2004. 

I don't think the word "coal" was mentioned it the RBN Energy post, but one can't explain away that dismal figure simply due to "the weather" (the polar vortex). Clearly there is something else going on. Yes, it's not that difficult to figure out: the war on coal is succeeding here in the US, and all that promised solar/wind energy simply cannot keep up. Again, seldom reported: utilities need to add one-half MW of fossil fuel capacity for every one MW of solar/wind energy brought on-line for those periods (like all night) when the sun is not shining, and the wind is blowing too fast or too slow. 

The big story is not that natural gas stores are depleted; the big story is "why."

****************************
Connecting The Dots

It's nice to see some reporters asking the right question. In this case, the question is this: why has President Obama been so quiet on the Malaysian Airlines shootdown? The Daily Beast is connecting the dots:
As the United States and NATO last month began to publicly acknowledge the sophisticated Russian anti-aircraft systems moving into rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine, the government in Kiev asked for gear that might be used to counter those weapons.
According to a former senior U.S. defense official who has worked closely with Ukraine’s military and a former head of state who has consulted with the government there, Kiev last month requested the radar jamming and detection equipment necessary to evade and counter the anti-aircraft systems Moscow was providing the country’s separatists.
Those anti-aircraft systems were almost certainly used to shoot down MH17, the Malaysian air passenger jet shot out of the sky last Thursday. U.S. officials have pointed the finger at Russia for providing that equipment, though no final assessment has been made of culpability for the incident.
Philip Karber, a former strategy adviser to Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger, has conducted detailed assessments of the country’s military since the crisis began this year.
Karber returned from the Ukrainian front earlier this month. He told The Daily Beast, “I was told in June by the Ukrainians that one of their top five priorities that they had conveyed to the United States and NATO that month was to get help in electronic warfare,” which gives a military the ability to detect, spoof and jam the radars of enemy anti-aircraft missile batteries.
Apparently "no-drama" Obama feared escalation of the war. Or he was out golfing and never saw the memo. 

The interesting story here is not that the actual content of the article, but that it has not been on CNN or Fox News ... yet.

Wednesday, July 23, 2014; Open Borders/Open Arms Update; SecState Breaks Ban -- Flies Into Tel Aviv

Active rigs:


7/23/201407/23/201207/23/201107/23/201007/23/2008
Active Rigs19520918213874

RBN Energy: Burning natural gas this summer -- bluntly put: Texas will consume its own stored supplies to meet in-State needs first – depriving other States of a helping hand if need be. So low storage levels in Texas will likely have more impact out of State than in.
There is still a lot of summer left in Texas. Some say summer in the Lone Star state runs from Cinco de Mayo through the middle of the high school football season, which sounds about right. But so far at least, a combination of moderate electricity demand and relatively high natural gas prices has resulted in a decidedly non-stellar gas power burn. That is good news for those eager to see the state’s—and the nation’s—gas storage levels rebound from unusually low levels after the hard, cold winter of 2013-14.
In this episode of our region-by-region series on gas power burn vs. gas storage rebuilding, we look at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas region, where gas-fired generation is king.
In Part 1 of Should I Store or Should I Burn, we recounted how the polar vortices in January and February (and colder-than-normal weather in December 2013) resulted in record draw-downs in stored natural gas. By late March, gas storage levels in the Lower 48 states had declined to 822 Bcf—the lowest in 11 years.
In Part 2 we looked at the gas power burn/gas storage rebuilding interaction in New England, which was hit more than any other region this past winter by gas pipeline constraints.
And in Part 3 we considered the PJM region and New York, which of course are benefiting from surging gas production in the dry Marcellus and, more recently, the wet Marcellus and Utica as well.
This time we consider Texas. The Lone Star State remains the nation’s largest natural gas producer, averaging 20.2 Bcf/d in 2013; 3.9 Bcf/d, on average, was consumed by electric power producers in the state last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The polar vortex this past winter resulted in larger-than-normal withdrawals from national and Texas gas storage facilities
Texas has more than a dozen salt cavern-based gas storage sites (more than any other state), as well as nearly 20 depleted gas fields now being used for gas storage. Taken together, they offer maximum storage capacity of 830 Bcf (246 Bcf in the salt caverns and 585 Bcf in the depleted fields).
In March 2013 (that is, after the winter of 2012-13) stored gas levels in Texas bottomed out at 567 Bcf (off from 745 Bcf in November 2012).
By October 2013, Texas’s stored gas had rebounded to 730 Bcf (only 2% less than its fall-of-2012 peak) but by March of this year in-state storage levels had plummeted to 418 Bcf, 26% lower than a year earlier and the lowest in the state since February 2004.
That is a deep hole to fill, particularly in a state that consumes more natural gas than any other to produce electricity. (It is worth noting that with Marcellus-sourced gas dominating Northeast gas markets, the inter-regional significance of Texas gas storage is less than it once was.) 
ObamaCare: banning federal health exchanges in ObamaCare was not an oversight, or a technical glitch. It was the only way the bill was going to get passed. The question is whether there is enough "wiggle room" for Supreme Court Chief Justice to reverse the decision if it holds in the appeals court.

So much for the FAA ban on flying into Tel Aviv. SecState John Kerry flew into the airport overnight. Of course, he's an un-ribboned war hero and probably used to taking risks.
The Wall Street Journal

US officials lay out case against Russians.

Courts issue conflicting rulings on health-law subsidies. Hospital, insurers say subsidies rulings further confuse the issue. Some governors face fallout over health law ruling. Fictitious applicants get health-insurance tax credits. Really?

US bars flights to Israeli airport.

Here we go: gasoline costs lift inflation gauge.

US existing-home sales hit highest level since October.

OPEN ARMS: cities offer shelter to migrant minors.

Support in Israel for Gaza operation remains strong, despite soldiers' deaths.

Mideast splits choke Kerry's peace effort. 

For Apple, iPhone roars, iPad whimpers.

Ignition woes ran deep at GM. Government Motors knew more than a decade ago that loose ignition switches went well beyond the Chevrolet Cobalt and related small cars, redesigning switches in at least three high-volume car families.
Oh, now I get it: see YouTube video on how the ignition system works -- note at the very beginning: there is nothing else dangling from the ignition key. Just that one key. That's the most important thing in this 4-minute video. Just the ignition key; nothing else should be in/near the ignition switch, and certainly nothing dangling from the ignition key. Ok, now I get it:


Obama administration plans stricter oil train safety standards -- to be announced Wednesday.

Comcast's profit rises 15%. Wow.