Sunday, March 23, 2014

Rockin' And Rollin' -- 198 Active Rigs Drilling In North Dakota

Active rigs:



3/23/201403/23/201303/23/201203/23/201103/23/2010
Active Rigs198187206171100


Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, Monday:

Monday, March 24, 2014
  • 24490, drl, CLR, Durham 4-2H, North Tobacco Garden, no production data,
  • 24517, drl, Hess, LK-Summerfield-147-96-15H-4, Bear Creek, no production data,
  • 26256, 48, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-24-13H-1, Alexandria, t11/13; cum 11K 1/14;
  • 26313, drl, XTO, Kanyer Federal 11X-15F, Grinnell, no production data,
Sunday, March 23, 2014
  • 24421, 562, QEP, MHA 5-32-31H-150-90, Deep Water Creek Bay, t1/14; cum 3K 1/14;
  • 25353, 872, Oasis, Link 13-24HTF, Foreman Butte, t11/13; cum 14K 1/14;
  • 26032, drl, KOG, P Earl Rennerfeldt 154-99-1-3-27-2H3, Epping, no production data,
  • 26069, drl, BR, Big Jon 11-2MBH-ULW, Camel Butte, no production data, 
  • 26464, drl, MRO, Kimball 14-35TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
Saturday, March 22, 2014
  • 24921, drl, Slawson, Jeriyote 6-5-32TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 25979, drl, XTO, Inga Federal 41X-29D, Haystack Butte, no production data,
  • 26016, 2,084, MRO, Schaefer 34-23TFH, Chimney Butte, t2/14; cum --
  • 26031, drl, KOG, P Earl Rennerfeldt 154-99-1-3-10-15H3, Stockyard Creek, no production data, 
  • 26136, drl, SM Energy, Elery 1-13H, Poe, no production data,
  • 26312, drl, XTO, Kanyer Federal 11X-15B, Grinnell, no production data, 
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A Note to the Granddaughters

I look forward to the day when the granddaughters are old enough to enjoy their summers independently, either with summer jobs or traveling. Both are equally important. I am reminded of that while reading Sylvia Nasar's Grand Pursuit: The Story of Economic Genius. On page 364,
The son of blue-collar Hungarian Jewish immigrants who settled in Brooklyn in the 1890s, Milton Friedman was born just before World War I. He grew up over his parents' store on Main Street in Rahway, a gritty New Jersy factory townon the railway line between New York and Philadelphia.
In the summer of 1971, I spent the summer working in Union County, Westfield, to be more specific, a bedroom community-suburb for New York City commuters. I was living and with three midwesterners. One of the three was working in Rahway. That was the first and only time Rahway was a "part of my life." But having been there for a summer, it helps bring to life Sylvia's book on an otherwise very dry subject. I now have a better knowledge of Milton Friedman, just knowing that little bit of trivia.

Rewriting Science -- Or At Least The Science I Was Taught



I thought I was taught that in the earth's water cycle, terrestrial rainfall eventually found itself in rivers which ran to the oceans. But I guess that's not necessarily true; apparently a lot of that river water ends up as ...  river water.

Reuters is reporting:
Heavy rains from the Amazon to Australia have curbed sea level rise so far this century by shifting water from the oceans to land, according to a study that rejects theories that the slowdown is tied to a pause in global warming.
Sea level rise has been one of the clearest signs of climate change - water expands as it warms and parts of Greenland and Antarctica are thawing, along with glaciers from the Himalayas to the Alps.
But in a puzzle to climate scientists, the rate slowed to 2.4 millimeters (0.09 inch) a year from 2003 to 2011 from 3.4 mm from 1994-2002, heartening skeptics who doubt that deep cuts are needed in mankind's rising greenhouse gas emissions.
Writing in the journal Nature Climate Change on Sunday, experts said the rate from 2003-2011 would have been 3.3 mm a year when excluding natural shifts led by an unusually high number of La Nina weather events that cool the surface of the Pacific Ocean and cause more rain over land.
"There is no slowing in the rate of sea level rise" after accounting for the natural variations, lead author Anny Cazenave of the Laboratory for Studies in Geophysics and Spatial Oceanography in Toulouse, France, told Reuters.
A couple of notes: that part about Antarctica thawing is more than just a bit debatable. Everything I've read for quite some time suggests Antarctica is actually growing.
But this is what I find astonishing, how the scientists spin the facts. The warmists/scientists agree that the rate of the rise in sea levels has slowed to 2.4 millimeters (0.09 inches a year from 3.4 millimeters per year. The spin: if one accounts for all that river water that hasn't made it to the oceans, the oceans have still been rising at the same rate. Talk about ... circular reasoning? Obfuscation? Lying? Lost in translation (from the French)?

The instrumentation must be incredibly sensitive: sea level rising 0.09 inches a year. In ten years, 0.9-inch rise. As I've said before, I put a Popsicle stick in the beach a few years ago with millimeter-markings and I didn't notice anything different. Maybe I was measuring the wrong ocean.

Regardless, this says all I need to know why Americans have grown tired of global warming hyperbole. The National Geographic probably did the most to discredit the movement with its photo-shopped depiction of the Statue of Liberty underwater, an insult to its readers.

Random Update On New Transmission Line From Northeastern South Dakota To Southeastern North Dakota; Jointly Ownd MDU/Otter Tail Transmission Line

For background: Otter Tail Power Company operates three coal-burning power plants which, together, produce about 65% of Otter Tail's electricity:
  • Big Stone Plant, Milbank, SD
  • Coyote Station, Beulah, ND
  • Hoot Lake Plant, Fergus Falls, MN
The Bismarck Tribune reports an update on the proposed 150-mile electric transmission line from Big Stone Plant to near Ellendale, ND, where it would connect up with a new substation there. The line would be jointly owned by MDU and Otter Tail.

Picture Day -- A Note To The Granddaughters -- Nothing About The Bakken

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A Note To The Granddaughters
Beechwood

I'm in a great mood; I'm taken myself off my meds this week. [Don't tell my psychotherapist.]

There are two main reasons I'm in a great mood: a) I have found all the statements and documentation necessary to complete my taxes; and, b) I have a "flat surface" on which to work.

Our apartment is 651 square feet (I had to look it up again) and that doesn't leave a lot of room for one-time events like preparing one's taxes. I must have thought about it for two weeks: I didn't want to start my taxes until I had a big, clean, flat surface on which to work. I finally came up with a solution. The breakthrough came after a series of discussions with my younger granddaughter, age 8 this summer. She is incredibly clever. I told her the challenge: to figure out how/where to place a big, clean, flat surface that would be part of the living room but would not be seen by my wife and would take up no room when not being used. Olivia said: why don't you put a huge piece of flat wood on the end table and move the end table in front of you?

Brilliant. The Hobby Lobby beechwood drawing board -- huge -- for under $25 -- still in plastic wrap -- fits the bill perfectly.

The second thing I needed was a scanner dedicated to my laptop that was also "relatively" portable and could be hidden away when not in use (the heavy duty scanner is located next to the heavy duty Mac in the bedroom). For $35 in cash, I got an HP scanner; it's pretty slow, but this is for the occasional document while working on taxes. I don't care how slow it is. [The more I use it, the faster it gets.] The Target representative wanted to sell me a warranty for the scanner -- no matter what went wrong, it would be replaced for free; a two-year warranty. I did not even ask the cost. If the all-in-one scanner-printer fails at the end of this tax season, I will simply get a new one. The ink cartridges (at $25) cost almost as much as the printer anyway.

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Still-Life

Yes, May, I'm eating well while you are in California.

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Culture

Another reason I'm in a great mood is because I have just read the "Review" section" of this weekend edition of The Wall Street Journal; the print edition. I like to read the "Review" holding real paper, and not on-line.

There's a great article, "The Power of 'Thick' Data," on page 3: businesses need to know how a product or service fits into the emotional lives of their customers. The writers provide three examples including the Lego success story and the Samsung television story. I won't repeat them here; go to the link for a fascinating story.

The story is important because it validates what I've been saying since the 1990s. Apple, Inc is not in the computer, technology, or software business. I used to say Apple was in the "fashion" business -- like Gucci -- but I was wrong. I was too narrow. After reading "The Power of 'Thick' Data" I realized Apple was in the "culture" business. Apple is selling culture: how we access data, how we listen to music, how we view movies, how we integrate data into our mobile lives. Apple sells culture: it sees products in pretty much two colors now: white and black. For awhile, Apple saw the world in rainbow colors (remember the clamshell computers and the iBeans?) but now it's pretty much one's choice between a white iPad or a black iPad. A white iPhone or a black iPhone. It sees print in crisp contemporary calligraphy. Very little cursive.

In the background I am listening to the "new" CD I just bought this morning, in cash, at Target, for, I think, $9.99: probably the most iconic album cover of the 20th century.

Abbey Road, The Beatles

I get chills up my back, up the nape of my neck writing that -- "the most iconic album cover of the 20th century." (No, not a tingle down my leg like Chris Matthews, LOL.) For years I wondered why Apple/the Beatles didn't re-market the entire library. Finally, they did. I said some time ago that there are some folks that will stream music or steal music, but there is a large population of music lovers that will buy the disc all over again if it's re-packaged. Wow, did they ever do a great job.

I remember when I first saw the album cover; I couldn't wait to get the album. And now, some forty years later, I'm buying it all over again. Something new this time: I don't have to get up and turn the album over. Side A slides seamlessly into Side B.

I find it incredible that the music seems every bit as good as when it first came out; maybe better. It does not sound old. In fact, compared to some of Paul McCartney's stuff that came out after this album, it leads me to believe that George Harrison and John Lennon were the real geniuses of the Beatles, and it was Ringo whose head was on the straightest. LOL.

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Checkers

By the way, as long as I'm in a good mood I might as well include a photo of the flat surface our younger granddaughter thought of to solve my problem. Here we are playing checkers. We played two games; she won both. I played well, but not aggressively. She was allowed an occasional "do-over," though she says I was also allowed "do-overs." I did not play to lose; I did not play to let her win. I played to make it an "even" game. Helping arrange things for her to get the first king pretty much lets the game play out very nicely.

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Make-Believe

In the washer-dryer "closet," my wife keeps a huge Rubbermaid tub of recyclable stuff (cardboard boxes, plastic containers) and things we find lying around that should be thrown away. If it's clean, we throw it in the tub and the granddaughters go through it two or three times a week looking for projects. For whatever reason, the younger one thought of making a WWI-like tank/cannon. The older one thought of a cannon -- like the really short cannon they used in the US Civil War or Revolutionary War. I asked my wife where she, Arianna, would have gotten this idea. It turns out that two years ago the granddaughters saw these short cannon (and sat on them) while visiting the walled Quebec City. The project took about 5 minutes to make, an hour of entertainment while they attacked me, and endless memories. I don't know if it will show up in the photograph: Arianna placed a "firing cap and fuse" and said, when it was completed, all she needed was a match. LOL. The empty tissue boxes were the shells and, yes, that's what they threw at me. Many little boys play with toy guns; our granddaughters have simply moved to a larger version.

WWI tank/cannon; Revolutionary War style cannon.

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Face Painting

And finally, getting back to culture. At the Science and History Museum in Ft Worth there is a crafts room of sorts for children to use. One of the stations is face-painting done by the children. Olivia thought I would look better with a moustache. The lack of a black "crayon" did not stop her. Although the crayon did not work all that well, I have to admit the moustache "does something" for me, and I think blue might be the right color. It goes well with my blue western shirts and brings out what "blue" I still have in my eyes. The highlight of my day might have been visiting the Cowgirl Museum which is right next door to the Science and History Museum after having my face painted. If 80-year-old women think they look good with purple hair, I suppose a blue moustache on a slightly younger man is not without merit.

 One man's answer to women with purple hair.

Sunday -- March 23, 2014

With regard to the Bakken, Sunday mornings are generally a bit slow, so I depend on items folks have sent in over the past few days that I have not had a chance to get to until now.

Don sends a link to an EIA link showing the monthly electric power generated by source from 2004 to January 2014. This is a nice link to keep. There must be a hundred story lines in that table. Even without a graph one can pretty much tell what is going on, but the graph makes it even easier. That particular link takes one to the average cost of fossil fuels per BTU, but you can grab any number of graphs. This one is for the cost of natural gas -- dramatic to say the least. Natural gas is about $5 / million BTUs.  The cost of coal hasn't changed much over the years: about $2.40 / milllion BTUs.

Interestingly enough, one cannot find a corresponding graph for the cost of renewable energy (wind, solar) -- I think it's impossible to sort that out with all the tax credits involved. But my hunch is that solar/wind is in the $20 / million BTUs (this is an old source, but I doubt a lot has changed in a relative manner); one only has to watch how utility bills have increased as use of wind/solar has increased (remember: cost of natural gas dropped from $12.50 / million BTUs in 2008 to under $5.00 last year and has been pretty stable since 2009. Has your utility bill dropped similarly, from $12.50 to $4.90 over the past five years? I doubt it. Natural gas dropped from $12.50 to $4.50; coal stayed flat; and your utility bill increased significantly, I bet.

Anyway, enough of this. A lot of stories at that EIA link.

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This link will eventually be a stand-alone post. It's an incredible link. This link takes you to a 80-page scientific paper that discusses almost everything you could possibly want to know about fracking and the risk to the water table. Don't let the length of the article scare you off. References start on page 68, so that accounts for 12 pages, and there are a lot of graphics. My suggestion: go directly to the conclusions - the twelve points begin on page 67 and are written so that even a journalist can understand it. (I'm not sure if politicians or CNBC talking heads could understand the conclusions.)

This article explains why anti-fracking activist environmentalists (AFAE) are now shifting their attention from water table risks (because there are "none") and to earthquakes.

This link was sent by Dennis who sends  me a lot of great links. Thank you.


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The Los Angeles Times has a number of interesting stories today: possible wreckage from Malaysian airlines sighted; President Obama's trip to Europe to attend a G-7 meeting (the G-8 includes Russia); and, legalization of marijuana is finding new allies in conservatives.

The best story is "where are all the positive stories about Obamacare?" It's a great article: it demonstrates clearly that this reporter doesn't understand how insurance works, and/or if he/she did, chose to ignore reporting one very inconvenient truth. This article explains why a) individual premiums for health care are going to surge (again), this autumn); and ObamaCare will remain unworkable as it stands now. Again, these genies are out of the bottle and can't be put back in: a) no annual cap on medical expenses; and, b) no pre-existing conditions.

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I hope some regional newspaper does a full-color multi-page spread of the new recreation center in Williston. We get a bit of news on this game-changing facility from The Dickinson Press:
The $76 million facility, known as the Williston Area Recreation Center, (ARC) opens Friday on the campus of Williston State College. The 236,000-square-foot center has a water park, indoor turf field, golf simulator and other features expected to make it a regional attraction.
Parks and Recreation Director Darin Krueger said his full-time staff has grown from 13 at the end of 2012 to more than 40 today to keep up with the department’s growth and the new facility.
The ARC also has a large indoor playground, tennis courts, pitching simulator, 200-meter track that can host indoor meets, a hangout area for teens and rooms that can be rented for birthday parties and weddings.
The one data point that really reflects how big this facility is: 40 full-time staff members. 

At one time sales receipts in Williston totaled around $400 million quarterly. Assuming 1% of $400 million is $4 million, then $80 million/$4 million = 20 quarters, or five years to pay this off. That $400 million was back in 2011.

More recently, in the third quarter of 2013, taxable sales in Williston approached $1 billion (Williams County exceeded $1 billion). Again, assuming 1% of $1 billion = $10 million, then $80 million / $10 million = 8 quarters, or two years to pay for this facility.

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors and my assumptions may be way off. 

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Worth a look.