Wednesday, February 12, 2014

From The Williston Wire; Global Warming To Hit The Northeast With What Could Be The Biggest Storm Of The Season

The District Engineer, U.S. Army Engineer District, Omaha, Nebraska is evaluating a Department of the Army permit application from the North Dakota Department of Transportation for a new 4-lane permanent Williston NW Bypass of US Highway 2 /US Highway 85.

Progress is being made for Sidney to have three new 12-plex housing buildings under the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program. The Sunset Village housing project is co-sponsored by the Richland County Housing Authority and Mountain Plains Equity Group of Billings.
Paul Groshart, executive director for Richland Housing, visited with Richland County commissioners about the project Wednesday morning. Housing Tax Credits will cover $4.3 million of the project's costs.

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Global Warming To Hit The Northeast This Week

Brutal winter intensifies.

Philadelphia snowfall breaks 130-year-old record

Nor'easter could be the biggest storm of the season, snow has started falling:
The mid-Atlantic region is bracing for what could be the biggest snow storm to hit the area in four years.
As much as a foot of snow is expected to fall between Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon with higher accumulations north and west of the District.
“This could be the biggest storm of the season,” Channel 9 meteorologist Topper Shutt says.
Snow started falling around 7 p.m. for much of the region.
New York City could get 14 inches (snow day? snow week?):
As much as 14 inches of snow could hit New York City and the surrounding area tonight, as the storm that has gridlocked the Southeast is coming north.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Tom Kines said the snow will begin to fall around midnight and last through most of Thursday. The latest National Weather Service forecast map shows that the city will likely get anywhere between 10 and 14 inches, depending on whether the precipitation changes over to rain during the day.
Amtrak suspending some routes.
Amtrak is suspending some trains as a winter storm threatens the South and the Northeast.
Amtrak says the suspensions Wednesday are meant to reduce the exposure of passengers, crews and equipment to extreme weather.
The suspensions include trains between New York and several destinations in the South and the auto train between Washington's northern Virginia suburbs and Orlando, Fla. Amtrak says other services, including the Northeast Corridor, are scheduled to operate.

WPX, Marathon Each Report A Nice Well; Nine (9) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

There was a big drop in active rigs today; I think it got down to 186 at one time. At close of business:


2/12/201402/12/201302/12/201202/12/201102/12/2010
Active Rigs18918320316592

Nine (9) new permits --
  • Operators: Hess (4), Oasis (2), XTO, Slawson, Whiting,
  • Fields: Alkali Creek (Mountrail), Gros Ventre (Burke), Charlson (McKenzie), Big Bend (Mountrail) Sanish (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list were reported earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Five (5) permits canceled, including four QEP Energy Johnson permits for lot 4, 4-149-95.

Wells coming off confidential list Thursday:
  • 24995, 93, Oasis, Remington 5992 12-26H, Cottonwood, t11/13; cum 5K 12/13,
  • 25415, drl, XTO, Rolfsrud State 14X-36E, Sand Creek, no production data,
  • 25500, 1,543, KOG, Smokey 3-17-20-14H3A, Pembroke, t1/14; cum --
  • 25520, A, Oasis, Bonita 5992 42-22H, Cottonwood, producing,
  • 25629, 935, WPX, State of ND 10-3HW, Van Hook, t11/13; cum 33K 12/13;
  • 25667, 212, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-7-6H-1, Alexandria, t11/13; cum 11K 12/13;
  • 25687, 1,381, Oasis, Barman 5693 43-12T, Alger, t10/13; cum 32K 12/13;
  • 26018, drl, MRO, Young 24-23TFH, Chimney Butte, no production data, 
  • 26085, 1,862, MRO, Scott Quale USA 21-29TFH, Reunion Bay, t12/13; cum 26K 12/13;
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25629, see above, WPX, State of ND 10-3HW, Van Hook:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2013135256744
11-2013143659683
10-201345882228


26085, see above, MRO, Scott Quale USA 21-29TFH, Reunion Bay:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2013252462354

North Dakota Math -- "That Is Quite A Big Increase" -- Six Times Projected Less Than One Year Ago

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
Revenues streaming into North Dakota’s general fund are beating forecasts by $150 million so far during the current two-year budget cycle that began July 1, but not all categories of tax collections saw an increase last month, the director of the state’s budget office told lawmakers Wednesday.
The state started the current two-year budget cycle on July 1 with a general fund balance of $1.65 billion. After expenditures, the general fund is projected to end the biennium with a balance of $491 million – more than six times the $80 million forecasted at the end of the legislative session last May.
“So it is quite a big increase,” Office of Management and Budget Director Pam Sharp told the Legislature’s interim Government Finance Committee.
In addition, the special funds (rounded):
  • Budget Stabilization Fund: $585 million
  • Legacy Fund: $1.8 billion
  • Foundation Aid Stabilization Fund: $410 million 
  • Property Tax Relief Fund: $570 million
  • Strategic Investment and Improvements Fund: $1 billion

Modern Math

Link here.

The first paragraph:
Shares of Amazon are getting smacked again early today after the company was downgraded from "Buy" to "Neutral "with a $375 price target. UBS analyst Eric Sheridan said a survey of Amazon customers indicated that only 24% would renew their Amazon Prime memberships if the company raised the annual price to $119 from the current $79. During its most recent conference call Amazon executives hinted that they were considering hiking the price of Prime membership anywhere from 20 to 40%.
Last paragraph:
[The analyst says he owns] Amazon shares and added to the position after the company missed earnings. $350 is support. There are at least 99 things that worry me about the position but the idea that customers wouldn’t be willing to pay an additional $20 for 2-day shipping, free streaming service and at least half a dozen other benefits related to being Prime members simply isn’t one of them.
That was not the question (survey). The question (survey) was for an annual price increase to $119 from the current price of $79.

$119 - $79 = $40.

My hunch is that a lot of folks won't even renew at $79.

Hess BB-Budahn Wells

Updates

July 27, 2019: production data updated.

February 28, 2015: random update of 27505

The BB-Budahn Wells
  • 28161, 1,772, Hess, BB-Budahn A-LS-150-95-0403H-1, Blue Buttes, 4 sections, t12/14; cum 364K 5/19; taken off-line 1/17; back on line shortly after that; 
  • 27505, 1,628, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-6, Blue Buttes, t12/14; cum 351K 5/19;
  • 27504, 1,314, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-7, Blue Buttes, t12/14; cum 241K 5/19;
  • 27503, 1,675, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-8, Blue Buttes, t12/14; cum 294K 5/19;
  • 27502, 1,740, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-9, Blue Buttes, t12/14; cum 270K 5/19;
  • 27501, 1,674, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-10, Blue Buttes, t12/14; cum 301K 5/19;
  • 24410, 56 (no typo), Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-5, Blue Buttes, t7/13, cum 197K 5/19; there must have been a problem with the frack; data not provided because "data incomplete"
  • 24409, 1,339, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-4, Blue Buttes, t6/13;cum 350K 5/19;
  • 24408, 1,335, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0506H-4, Blue Buttes, t3/14; cum 322K 5/19;
  • 24407, 1,415, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0506H-5, Blue Buttes, t3/14; cum 352K 5/19;
  • 23457, 1,196, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-2, Blue Buttes, t6/13; cum 299K 5/19;
  • 23456, 1,476, Hess, BB-Budahn-150-95-0506H-2, Blue Buttes, t3/14; cum 357K 5/19;
  • 23455, 1,291, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-3, Blue Buttes, t6/13; cum 337K 5/19;
  • 23454, 1,422, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0506H-3, Blue Buttes, t5/13; cum 307K 5/19;
  • 19737, 1,341, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-1, Blue Buttes, t1/12; cum 460K 5/19; bump in production from halo effect;
  • 16603, 391, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0506H-1, Blue Buttes, t8/07; cum 248K 12/18; off line as of 2/19; remains off line 5/19;



Other old wells in section 5-150-95:
  • 1738, PA/294, Texaco, Blue Buttes-Madison Unit L-105, t1/59; cum 450K 6/74; a vertical well;
  • 1918, PA/187, Hess, Blue Buttes-Madison Unit-405, t8/58; cum 1.28 million bbls 4/07 (produced almost 50 years), a vertical well;
  • 2428, PA/311, Hess, Blue Buttes-Madison Unit L-305, t9/59; cum 1.32 million bbls 4/84 (produced almost 25 years), a vertical well;
  • 2516, PA/228, Hess, Blue Buttes-Madison Unit J-305, t12/59; cum 294K 9/75 (produced about 15 years), a vertical well;
  • 2518,  PA/257, Hess, Blue Buttes-Madison Unit K-405, t4/60; cum 312K 5/77 (produced about 17 years), a vertical well;
  • 7810, IA/AB/603, Hess, C. M. Loomer 11, a Silurian well, t9/80; cum 1.4 million bbls 4/13, a vertical well;
  • 8229, PA/449, Hess, C. M. Loomer 13, a Silurian well, t6/82; cum 809K 1/17; a vertical well; also producing a non-economic amount from the Duperow early on;

For Investors Only -- February 12, 2014 -- Only Two Days Until Valentine's Day

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you may have read here.

Oil continues to trade up: up almost 1%, nearing $101.

Trading at new highs: BHI, CAH, CMCSA, ERF, MDU, UNP, and XLNX.

Montana Update: Three Bakken Completions

The Fairfield Sun Times is reporting two Bakken completions in Richland Count (west of McKenzie County) and one Bakken completion in Roosevelt County (west of Williams County).

Richland County:
  • Continental Resources Inc., Prevost-Mondalin HSU, TD =  20,300 feet; IP, 426 bopd. 
  • Whiting Oil and Gas Corporation, Sundheim 21-3-1H, with two laterals (TD = 13,704 feet and 17,005 feet). No IP provided.
Roosevelt County:
  • Oasis, Crocket 2958 42-21 1H; TD = 20,694 feet, IP of 554 bopd. 

For Investors Only -- Deere Beats By 28 Cents -- Wednesday -- February 12, 2014

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site; do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Huge: Deere beats by $0.28, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus; reaffirms FY14 EPS guidance, revs guidance: Reports Q1 (Jan) earnings of $1.81 per share, $0.28 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.53; net sales of equipment operations rose 2.3% year/year to $6.95 bln vs the $6.76 bln consensus.

Ten companies announced increased dividends or distributions including Xilinx with a pretty healthy increase from 25 cents to 29 cents. Whiting USA Trust I reduced its distribution from ~59 cents to ~56 cents.

Owens Corning beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides Fy14; iniates $0.16 quarterly dividend: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.44 per share, $0.16 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.28; revenues rose 10.3% year/year to $1.28 bln vs the $1.21 bln consensus.

MDU Resources to purchase Powder River Basin Production assets; expected to be accretive to 2014 earnings per share: Co announced that its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Fidelity Exploration & Production Company, agreed to purchase working interests and leasehold positions in oil and natural gas production assets in the southern Powder River Basin of Wyoming from undisclosed private sellers. The purchase also includes working interests in a number of producing wells and an ongoing two rig development drilling program targeting the heart of the prolific Frontier play. 

Tuesday -- Oil Hovering At $100; Some Expect It To Go Higher

Active rigs:


2/12/201402/12/201302/12/201202/12/201102/12/2010
Active Rigs19518320316592

RBN Energy: Jones Act, Gulf Coast
In the first episode in this series we described the regulations of the Jones Act that restricts marine transport between US inland and coastal ports to US Flag vessels. In episode two we began a deep dive look at the Jones Act self-propelled tanker fleet and its ownership covering Crowley Maritime, Seabulk Tankers and the recent Kinder Morgan acquisition American Petroleum Tankers. In Episode Three we rounded out coverage of the Jones Act tanker fleet owners with a look at Overseas Shipping Group and the ExxonMobil, BP and Conoco Alaska fleets. This time we turn our attention to the large Ocean going articulated tank barge (ATB) fleet that also operates in the coastwise trade.
The Wall Street Journal

What can new pilots make? Near minimum wage

Some small businesses see little relief in delayed Obamacare.

Oil hovers at $100.
Prices for the benchmark U.S. oil contract have risen more than 9% since early January. The gains were fueled by the opening of a new pipeline connecting America's biggest oil-storage hub with the main refining zone on the Gulf Coast. In Tuesday's trading, March futures ended 12 cents lower at $99.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Futures settled on Monday above $100 a barrel for the first time since December.
The rally is the latest example of how the boom in North American oil output is no guarantee of abundant—or cheap—U.S. crude.
The increasing number of barrels that are making it to Gulf Coast refiners are being processed into fuels and exported to other countries. Meanwhile, a cold winter is helping to drive up consumption of distillates, a category of fuel that includes heating oil, at home. "The recent rise is a healthy sign of some of the bottlenecks loosening up," said John Brynjolfsson, chief investment officer of hedge fund Armored Wolf LLC, which manages about $1 billion.
Mr. Brynjolfsson is wagering that U.S. oil futures on Nymex will increase, outperforming Brent, a benchmark for European crude that many investors use as a gauge of global oil prices.

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I hope this story gets wide coverage, especially down south: don't come to North Dakota without plan, a job, and a place to live.

The Dickinson Press brings us up to speed on the challenges of coming to western North Dakota looking for a job without a plan. It isn't easy.

I'm not going to quote the article: there is nothing new being reported. Just another reminder, North Dakota is not a place to be, especially in the winter, if one has no job, no place to live, and no plan.