Wednesday, June 11, 2014

For Investors Only; Are Oil "Shorts" At Risk Of Getting Squeezed? Al QaedaTaking Mosul Did Not Help

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

I see the market is down 100 points in early trading.

I see AAPL is up slightly. AAPL "shorts" must really be getting squeezed. I see Apple announced it is going to hire 1,000 marketers. Sort of like Musketeers, I suppose.

I do not invest in AAPL; never have, never will. I missed that one.

By the way, on various boards there is a lot of chatter on the Beats deal. That is now an old story; we will simply have to watch how it plays out. But this morning, while standing in the airport security line (I was with my wife; I'm not flying anywhere), I noticed countless advertisements for Apple: huge white headphones with a bright, colorful "b" on the speakers. At one time it was all about the white ear buds; now it's the white / colorful "b" headphones. I still think it was a brilliant move on Apple's part.

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The market is down a bit but oil (both Brent and WTI) are up a bit. This divergence speaks volumes about both the market and the "state" of oil.

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The market is down a bit, and oil is up a bit. SLB is up nicely, considering. This one I did not miss. SLB was one of the first companies I invested in. I think my first "personal" investments were Burlington Northern (BNI) and SLB although there were others, and I could be wrong on this. I know I'm correct on BNI -- although the ticker symbol may have been different when I first started investing in 1984. I don't remember. COP, interestingly, is also up. I first got into COP via Phillips. I bot Phillips Oil before the merger; I bought it back in the late 1980's, I suppose, based on a two-page article in Forbes. It was selling for $9/share at the time. Since then COP, and then the spin-off, COP and PSX. And then PSXP, I guess. Just reminiscing. Nothing else.

Generally when the market falls a 100 points or more, it is a broad decline, everything going down. But SLB and COP are both up, at least slightly. I probably won't check any more today, unless the market takes a sudden reversal.

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Late morning trading: oil continues it's relentless move toward $105. Over at 24/7 Wall Street:
The short interest data from the May 30 settlement date is out, and we are witnessing some big changes in the bets against big oil companies. Even with some drops in the short interest, what remains in play is that there is an elevated short interest trend still in place in the sector. Crude oil was closer to $100 in mid-May, but now crude oil is challenging $105.
Chevron Corp. saw its short interest rise by more than 8% to 18,546,277 shares at the end of May, versus 17,102,864 shares in mid-May. This was still extremely elevated for 2014, as that short interest is up about 30% this year.
ConocoPhillips saw its short interest rise by 5% to 22,875,838 shares short at the end of May, up from what was already a 2.6% gain in the short interest to 21,794,576 shares in mid-May. This was the highest short interest reading of 2014.
Exxon Mobil Corp. witnessed a 4.1% decline in shares short to 48.2 million at the end of May, versus 50.272 million shares in mid-May. This had seen a 5% decline in its short interest in the prior report. Still, the six days to cover remains high and the short interest remains elevated compared to 2013.
Occidental Petroleum Corp. is often forgotten about among the major oil companies, even though it has a market cap of nearly $80 billion. Occidental’s short interest had already fallen by 6% in mid-May, but the decline at the end of May was down to 8,036,426 shares — a drop of 20% from the mid-May short interest of 10,040,263 shares. Its short interest still remains elevated in 2014 versus 2013.
I personally did not find this data particularly noteworthy but it may be of interest as we track my thoughts about the current state of affairs in the global energy

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