Friday, September 20, 2013

Am I Missing Something? And The First Nominee For The 2013 Geico Rock Award Is ...

The Dickinson Press is reporting: "Forty years later, we are still as dependent — if not more so — on foreign oil." -- Harvey Brock, opinion, the publisher of The Dickinson Press.

Regular readers might want to send Mr Brock this link at Carpe Diem: five charts that help put "Saudi America's" shale revolution into perspective. And that's just crude oil. Natural gas is an even more remarkable story. [Update: one might also look at the data and graph at item #4 in a more recent CarpeDiem post: For the last three weeks in a row, US crude oil production exceeded oil imports (see chart below). The last time that happened was in February 1995, more than 18 years ago. As US oil production continues to accelerate, the market for oil imports will continue to shrink.]

Wow. The first nominee for the 2013 the Geico Rock Award....

Geico Rock Commercial

So Much For Monterey Shale -- Reader

NBCBayArea is reporting:
For the first time, California state law will directly oversee the controversial practice of fracking. Friday, Governor Jerry Brown signed the bill into law.
The law will regulate and track the practice of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, for oil in California.
This follows NBC Bay Area’s investigation that first aired 19 months ago that uncovered widespread and unregulated fracking in California.
The bill from Sen. Fran Pavley, D-Calabasas, requires drillers to disclose the chemicals used and acquire permits before they use hydraulic fracturing. That process involves injecting water, sand and chemicals into deep rock formations to release oil or natural gas.
Drilling companies have been exploring whether fracking could help them access oil in California's Monterey Shale.
Pavley's bill passed the Legislature last week amid concerns from some conservation groups over last-minute changes affecting environmental reviews.
So, we'll see.

Be that as it may, regular readers know that both COP and CVX have been moving their employees to Houston over the past year (posted earlier at the MDW). The companies obviously knew this was coming down, and will now focus on the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and the Permian.

California can wait. 

Not Good: California Unemployment Edges Up For Second Month In A Row

I find it interesting that the news was posted late Friday afternoon, after news cycle for the week was over. The story at the Los Angeles Times was posted at 4:59 pm Friday.
California's employers created 29,100 net jobs in August, but the unemployment rate edged up for the second month in a row, climbing to 8.9% from 8.7% the month before, the state's Employment Development Department reported Friday.
The jobless rate has climbed nearly half a percentage point since June even as employers have added nearly 57,000 jobs to their payrolls during that time.
Friday's data painted a tepid picture of the Golden State's economy, which has hit a soft patch during the summer months, economists said. The labor force has declined by 65,000 people since June.
"The labor market appears to be going sideways," said Robert Kleinhenz, chief economist at Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. "We see a month of improvement and maybe a month of retrenchment, and that's a discouraging story to report."
Wait until O'BamaCare kicks in. Then folks will have real discouraging stories to report. We should start seeing those stories October 15, 2013. There are reasons employers are not hiring: most important -- a) keep overall number of employees below 50 is approaching that threshhold; b) shift full-time to part-time wherever possible.

Earlier This Year, NDIC Director Predicted Some Huge IPs In The Bakken This Summer ...

.... these were the results of the producing wells that were completed and reported today:
  • 24645, 3,107, Oasis, Pingora 5200 41-20B, Camp, t8/123; cum --
  • 23630, 1,975, Statoil, Reiten 23-14 2H, Painted Woods, t8/13; cum -- 
  • 23991, 4,071, Statoil, Johnston 7-6 2TFH, Banks, t8/13; cum --
  • 24585, 318, Hunt, Bear Butte 1-6-7H, Little Tank, t9/23; cum --
  • 25386, 1,142, Whiting, Liebl 31-3H, Alger, t8/13; cum --
  • 23669, 2,660, KOG, Koala 8-5-6-5H, Poe, t8/13/ cum --
  • 23668, 2,432, KOG, Koala 8-5-6-4H3, Poe, t9/13; cum --
  • 23670, 1,043, KOG, Koala 8050605H3, Poe, t8/13; cum --
  • 23382, 2,710, HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-1B-12-3H, McGregory Buttes, t5/13; cum --
  • 23555, 2,018, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-94-14D-11-3H, Antelope, t6/13; cum -- 
The numbers speak for themselves. Sweet.

Of course, the NDIC director was talking about 30-, 60-, and 90-day production but these 24-hour production numbers are pretty incredible.

Busy, Busy Friday For NDIC: Twenty (20) New Permits; Eleven (11) Producing Wells Completed And Reported: Halcon With Two Huge Wells; KOG With Three Huge Wells; Statoil With Two Nice Wells; Oasis With A Huge Well

Active rigs: 185 (trending up after hitting recent post-boom low of 177)

Twenty (20) new permits --
  • Operators: CLR (6), QEP (4), Whiting (4), Newfield (3), Sinclair, OXY USA, Hunt
  • Fields: Helis Grail (McKenzie), Poe (McKenzie), Sather Lake (McKenzie), Juniper (McKenzie), Westberg (McKenzie), Sanish (Mountrail), Willmen (Dunn), Ellsworth (McKenzie)
  • Comments: QEP has one other well in this section where there will be for new wells; that well has produced more than 280,000 bbls of crude oil since May 28, 2012. That was a Three Forks well, 29 stages; 3.5 million lbs proppant;
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Eleven (11) producing wells completed:
  • 24645, 3,107, Oasis, Pingora 5200 41-20B, Camp, t8/123; cum --
  • 23630, 1,975, Statoil, Reiten 23-14 2H, Painted Woods, t8/13; cum -- 
  • 23991, 4,071, Statoil, Johnston 7-6 2TFH, Banks, t8/13; cum --
  • 24585, 318, Hunt, Bear Butte 1-6-7H, Little Tank, t9/23; cum --
  • 25386, 1,142, Whiting, Liebl 31-3H, Alger, t8/13; cum --
  • 23669, 2,660, KOG, Koala 8-5-6-5H, Poe, t8/13/ cum --
  • 23668, 2,432, KOG, Koala 8-5-6-4H3, Poe, t9/13; cum --
  • 23670, 1,043, KOG, Koala 8050605H3, Poe, t8/13; cum --
  • 23382, 2,710, HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-1B-12-3H, McGregory Buttes, t5/13; cum --
  • 23555, 2,018, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-94-14D-11-3H, Antelope, t6/13; cum --

Second Tractor & Equipment Co Facility Opens In Williston -- Heart Of The Bakken

The Williston Wire is reporting:
Tractor & Equipment Co. has announced the opening of a new 42,100 square foot facility in Williston. T&E's second Williston facility is now the official headquarters for 3 customer support areas: 1) Equipment rental, 2) Agricultural sales, parts, and service, and 3) Caterpillar® generator/engine sales.  The new "Williston North" facility features 12 service repair bays dedicated to T&E rental fleet repair/maintenance and the service of customers' Agricultural equipment.

Cold And Rainy In Dallas Area But Long Line At Local Apple Store: iPhone 5c And 5S -- September 20, 2013

Updates

Later, 7:22 pm: Bloomberg is reporting potential blow-out numbers for opening day launch of new Apple iPhones 5C and 5S.
Apple Inc attracted long lines of shoppers today for the global debut of its latest iPhones, the company’s biggest product introduction this year.

In New York, customers lined up around the block to get into Apple’s flagship Fifth Avenue store, while in Munich about 2,000 gathered to buy the new iPhone 5s and 5c, and in London the waiting crowd stretched about a mile. Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook and other executives visited customers at stores in Palo Alto, California, near the company’s campus.
A spokeswoman for Apple said demand for the new iPhones was “incredible” and that they were sold out or in limited supply at some stores.
Is it just me or can anyone name another company that consistently launches high-end products for which consumers stand in line several hours to buy on launch day? And products are generally sold out by the end of the day? The only thing that comes close is when one's NBA basketball team wins the championship and Sports Authority opens late to sell winning team merchandise, like baseball caps for $25 -- which hardly compares to $600 smart phones. Just saying. I think it's an incredible phenomenon.

Original Post

Photo taken at South Lake, Texas, Apple Store, northwest of Dallas.


Phones went on sale today.

Yahoo! is reporting that the new Apple iPhone sales are "golden."
Score one for Apple fans! In a burst of enthusiasm that seemed unthinkable just weeks ago, customers are lining up at Apple stores worldwide in hopes of being among the first to buy the latest iterations of the iPhone. Despite initial skepticism to the new 5C and 5S iPhones, the hands-on reviews have been glowing and the consumer frenzy is on.
No one doubted Apple's ability to build a great high-end product. The question was whether the iPhone 5S's faster processing speed, improved camera and thumb-print security would be enough to create another buying frenzy.
The answer is a qualified yes. I stopped to speak with the folks camped out in front of the Apple store in New York's Grand Central Terminal this morning. The overwhelming consensus is that the most exciting feature of the 5S isn't the internal technical specifications, but the color of the case.
And no one is even talking about iTunes Radio and iBeacon. The latter will be a game changer.

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A Note To The Granddaughters

Phil Jackson's seventh book, c. 2013, is out.

The list of his previous books:
  • Journey to the Ring
  • The Last Season 
  • More Than a Game
  • Sacred Hoops 
  • Maverick
  • Take It All!
And now: Eleven Rings: The Soul of Success 

It's cool to see Williston High School mentioned and a photograph of Phil Jackson in a Coyote uniform. I believe he was a senior in high school, winning the state basketball tournament, when I was wrestling at 95 pounds as a freshman.

The book is a re-cap of his eleven championships, with a fair amount of his philosophy. It is a good read, but I enjoyed Sacred Hoops so much more. I like to think that is also his favorite.

His co-author, or his publisher, writes on the jacket:
"Phil Jackson is arguably the greatest coah in the history of the NBA. His reputation was established as head coach of the Chicago Bulls from 1989 to 1998; during his tenure, Chicago won six NBA titles. His next team, the Los Angeles Lakers, won five NBA titles form 2000 to 2010. He holds the record for the most championships in NBA history as a player and a head coach. He also has the highest winning percentage of any NBA coach (.704). Jackson was a player on the 1970 and 1973 NBA champion New York Knicks. In 2007 Jackson was inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame."

Around The Horn -- Market Open

Active rigs: up to 182. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

No surprises below; pretty much in line with the overall market. 

Oil is really holding its own.  Despite some pullback, still above $105. For Bakken operators, the sweet spot is probably between $95 and $100 but will trend up.

KOG down about a percent.

Oasis, flat.

HK down a cent, in line with the overall energy sector. I used to follow KOG as the bellwether for the Bakken (I personally don't own any KOG), but now, for the short term, HK is a better Bakken indicator in my mind.

CVX, COP, XOM: all up slightly; COP is trading at a new high.

EOG is up, but not yet at its new high.

CHK: up again, short of its recent high.

SD: up, barely.

AMZG: no trades yet/or flat.

TPLM: still holding its new high. Up a few pennies. Very, very strong.

UNP up about half a percent.

I don't follow BNSF (BRK) much any more; BRK follows the market in general.

ENB, EEP: one up; one down; trading range.

EPD: down slightly.

SRE down slightly.

TransCanada: surprising; up another half-a-percent.

CLR: pulls back; barely over $101.

WLL: down slightly; pulls back slightly from recent high.

The Tangsrud Wells

CLR's Tangsrud wells. Fourteen CLR Tangsrud wells in one 1280-spacing unit as of original post, September 20, 2013.

Up in Hayland oil field, far northwest corner of North Dakota, southeast corner of Divide County.
  • 24967, 197, CLR, Tangsrud 9-1H, Hayland, middle Bakken, no frack data; t10/13; cum 68K 7/17; 
  • 24966, 52, CLR, Tangsrud 10-1H2, Hayland, t3/15; 47K 7/17;
  • 24965, 537, CLR, Tangsrud 5-1H, Hayland, t4/14; cum 63K 7/17; 2
  • 24964, 390, CLR, Tangsrud 6-1H2, Hayland, t10/13; cum 46K 7/17; 
  • 24936, 360, CLR, Tangsrud 8-1H1, Hayland, t10/13; cum 69K 7/17;
  • 24935, 216, CLR, Tangsrud 7-1H3, Hayland, t10/13; cum 40K 7/17;
  • 24934, 76, CLR, Tangsrud 4-1H3, Hayland, "the Tangsrud is an attempt in the area to establish oil production from the 3rd bench of the Three Forks (within the lower half of the formation; identified by the North Dakota Geological Survey as "Member 2")." Later, "No oil shows were noted at the shaker while drilling the Tangsrud horizontal. Total gas reading were low (50- 60 units (100 units = 1% methane in air). No sample shows were noted while drilling the Tangsrud lateral....some very porosity was noted in the dolomite."; t1/14; cum 38K 7/17;
  • 24931, 514, CLR, Tangsrud 14-1H, Hayland, t10/13; cum 50K 7/17;
  • 24930, 545, CLR, Tangsrud 13-1H2, Hayland, t2/14; cum 51K 7/17;
  • 24929, 995, CLR, Tangsrud 12-1H3, Hayland,on a 6-well Eco-Pad; TF 3; vertical depth and curve were drilled; then drilling paused for the drilling of #24928, #24966, and #24967; gas units very, very low (25 to 29) in TF3; even the geologist commented that "overall the well had very poor gas shows while drilling." He continued, "The daily footage was phenomenal and averaged around 2,400 feet per day; drilling was maintained almost entirely within the target zone. The proximity throughout the well to the target zone should make for a productive fracking operation; t2/14; cum 44K 7/17;
  • 24928, 344, CLR, Tangsrud 11-1H1, Hayland, t2/14; cum 50K 7/17;
  • 24924, 168, CLR, Tangsrud 3-1H2, Hayland, t1/14; cum 59K 7/17;
  • 19107, 488, CLR, Tangsrud 2-1H, Dolphin, t11/10; cum 115K 7/17; 24 stages; 2.8 million lbs sand/ceramic; middle Bakken;
  • 17649, 922, CLR, Tangsrud 1-1H, Dolphin, t7/09; cum 141K 7/17;
  • 10210, 16/33, Bakken/Madison; 16/33; Condor Petroleum, Tangsrud 12-1, t12/03; t10/83; cum 24K 7/17; cum 134K 7/13; the Madison last produced in 2006; the Bakken remains barely active; a vertical well; no directional, no horizontal


Two Weeks And Counting ...

T.R.A.I.N.W.R.E.C.K.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
Less than two weeks before the launch of insurance marketplaces created by the federal health overhaul, the government's software can't reliably determine how much people need to pay for coverage, according to insurance executives and people familiar with the program.
Government officials and insurers were scrambling to iron out the pricing quirks quickly, according to the people, to avoid alienating the initial wave of consumers.
A failure by consumers to sign up online in the hotly anticipated early days of the "exchanges" is worrisome to insurers, which are counting on enrollees for growth, and to the Obama administration, which made the exchanges a centerpiece of its sweeping health-care legislation.
If not resolved by the Oct. 1 launch date, the problems could affect consumers in 36 states where the federal government is running all or part of the exchanges. About 32 million uninsured people live in those states, but only a fraction of them are expected to sign up in the next year.
The remaining 14 states are running separate marketplaces with their own software. One of those states, Oregon, has already announced that it would delay some features to fix software bugs, though consumers will be able to enroll offline.
It will be interesting to see the premiums Oregon will charge for individual health care insurance. Something tells me Oregon won't be putting "affordable" into the Affordable Care Act.

It appears millions of part-time workers are going to lose their health care insurance after October

Retirees are being cost-shifted from their company plans to these non-existent on-line exchanges.

By November 1, 2013, regardless of what Congress does with regard to funding O'BamaCare, the trainwreck will be the number one story across America. Absolutely amazing how this has spun out of control. Think about it. The government has trouble compiling weekly jobless reports and now millions of Americans are going to be going on-line all on the same day to enroll. Servers will shut down. On-line exchanges won't be up. It will be a trainwreck. This prediction/description originated with one of bill's co-sponsors and lead writers. Wow.

Friday Morning News, Views, And Links; iPhones Sold Out -- Within 28 Minutes

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Thirteen companies announced increased dividends today, including Microsoft and McDonald's. The gap between investors and non-investors widens. 

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Bloomberg is reporting: Apple's New IPhone Poised for Record Debut as Sales Begin.
Apple Inc attracted long lines of shoppers at its retail stores today for the global debut of its latest iPhones, in the company’s biggest move this year to stoke new growth.
In Munich about 2,000 people lined up and at the Louvre in Paris about 300 people waited ahead of the 8 a.m. opening. At Tokyo’s Ginza area store there were about 800 people, including some dressed as Batman and Apple co-founder Steve Jobs in a face mask, jeans and black turtleneck. A Beijing store attracted a crowd of only about 50 because buyers had to register online for an appointment to collect their devices.
From MacRumors:
Within four hours after Apple began taking orders for the iPhone 5s, Apple Store shipping estimates for new orders of the device slipped to 7-10 days in the U.S. and Canada, following a similar pattern to shipping estimates in other countries where the 5s went on sale earlier today. The original shipping estimate for all 5s models was 1-3 days.

Some 28 minutes after they went on sale, all gold iPhone 5s models saw their shipping estimates slip to October. 
Pandora fans flocking to Apple's iTunes Radio, and with that one headline, Pandora is history.
Pandora Media  is one of the hottest stocks of the year, about to triple in price, as listeners and advertisers have flocked to its online radio service. This week, the stock shot up further to an all-time high, as strong investor demand let Pandora increase a secondary stock offering by 30%.
But the positive momentum is at risk as Apple this week launched a copycat service, called, to hundreds of millions of iTunes users.
Early anecdotal signs indicate that iTunes Radio may be cutting into Pandora’s reported base of 72 million monthly active listeners.

**************************

I could be wrong but the gang-related thirteen deaths last night in Chicago might even be a front page story in the Chicago Times. I didn't see the story at Debbie Downer but I went through the on-line edition quickly. If the Chicago gunfight was an argument over fracking it would have made front page news in the newspaper. Hey, on another note, the top story in Dickinson appears to be: "Famous Dave's eyeing Dickinson."

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It is funny how things worked out. Now the "global warmer" believers are the "new" flat earth society. Whatever. Fewer people than ever "believe" that the earth is getting warmer. The Express is reporting:
The report comes as climate change scientists working on a landmark UN report on climate change are struggling to explain why global warming appears to have slowed down in the past 15 years even though greenhouse gas emissions keep rising. 
Dr. Roy Spencer, a former NASA scientist and author of Climate Confusion, argues in his influential blog the UN report shows scientists are being forced to "recognise reality."

He said: "We are now at the point in the age of global warming hysteria where the IPCC global warming theory has crashed into the hard reality of observations." 
So, we are left with these leading the "global warming" charge: Barack O'Bama, Algore, and Nancy Pelosi.  Scientists are being forced to recognize reality. Yup.

We saw this same phenomenon back in the late 1800's with the rise of Romanticism, a Luddite reaction to the Industrial Revolution. Nonetheless, the Romantic Period provided some of the best art and literature ever and got me interested in fine art and reading literature. It will be interesting to see how social scientists and historians describe the lost decades (2000 - 2020) one hundred years from now.
**************************
 
An enlightened reader sends me this: whatever happened to global warming?
While the UNIPCC, government bureaucracies, climate experts – that oxymoron againsuckered Guardianista-style journalists and various shades of ‘green-behind-the-ears’ would-be planet-savers are currently attempting to spin the latest IPCC admissions, front and center is the stone cold fact that global warming isn’t happening and hasn’t happened for nearly 17 years. Yet green elites continue to cling to the notion of a ‘warming trend.'
What warming trend? According to various reports the upcoming IPCC assessment in its ‘summary for policymakers’ is forced to admit that all four previous reports had over-estimated the rate of decadal warming since 1951. Most significant, however, is the admission that computer modelled forecasts failed to factor in the “natural variability” of the climate. And that’s precisely the main rolling criticism made by climate sceptics for the past two decades.
Wow, global warming. What a scam. 

Real Estate Trust To Add 324 Luxury Apartments Across Two Projects, Minot, Grand Forks

Related posts:
From recent press release:
Investors Real Estate Trust has commenced construction on Phase I of the Cardinal Point Apartments project in Grand Forks, North Dakota, and Phase I of the Chateau II Apartments in Minot, North Dakota. Once completed, the two projects will add 324 luxury apartment units to IRET's North Dakota apartment portfolio.
The 252 unit Cardinal Point Apartments will provide the Greater Grand Forks area with multiple studio, one, two, and three bedroom floor plans, and an abundant amenity package.
The 72 unit Chateau II Apartments are a rebuild/remodel of the east wing of IRET's currently owned Chateau Apartments that were damaged by the 2011 flood and subsequent fire. The building is increasing in size from 32 units to 72 units, and will be connected to the existing Chateau I via a skywalk.

Friday Morning News, Views, And Links

Active rigs: 182

RBN Energy: another in the series on shale gas production economics; downloadable spreadsheet;

The WSJ

Wow, this is shocking. Walt Mossberg will leave the WSJ at the end of the year.

Same firm vetted Snowden, Navy Yard shooting suspect, and 30,000 others. This is a story?

Mars rover cannot fine methane in the air, dealing a blow to hopes that life might be found on Mars; I suppose without methane, no evidence of Martial warming either.

Dueling banjos. First, it was Putin's op-ed. Now Senator McCain weighs in.

The NYT

Top story, above the fold, with photograph: oil thieves in Nigeria. Great photograph of Nigeria's crude oil takeaway method.

The Boston Globe

Politics, sports, and excessive spending at Westfield State. Nothing about fracking or the Bakken on the front page.

Los Angeles Times

Top story: looming federal government shutdown.

Third story down: thirteen human beings shot in Chicago, including a 3-year-old; basketball-court shooting was apparently gang-related. Ya think?

Supreme Court will decide whether corporations can claim a religious exemption to the healthcare's contraceptive mandate. Question: just how expensive are birth control pills compared to the alternative? My hunch: separation of church and state will trump.


Water colour by May Garcia