Thursday, June 13, 2013

Another Bakken Feel Good Story -- USA Today -- CBR

At the link, a great photo of the CBR terminal near Tioga, ND. 

USA Today is reporting:
Last October, Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, the biggest U.S. pipeline operator, announced plans to build a 740-mile pipeline from the oil fields of West Texas to a refining hub outside Los Angeles. Dubbed the Freedom Pipeline, the $2 billion project would deliver 277,000 barrels a day of cheap Texas crude to West Coast refineries that had long relied on expensive oil shipped from Alaska’s North Slope or even foreign markets. All Kinder Morgan needed was to get regulatory approval and long-term contracts with large California refiners, including Valero Energy and Tesoro.
In April, Kinder Morgan began negotiating agreements with refiners, who normally commit to buy predetermined amounts of oil for as long as 10 years. On May 31, however, Kinder Morgan announced it was canceling the project after Valero and Tesoro said they weren’t interested in buying the pipe’s oil on a long-term basis. They’d found a better way to get their hands on domestic crude: railroads.

The P Bibler And Bibler Federal Wells

The graphic (see this post):

The Bibler, Bibler Federal, and P Bibler wells:

  • 33676, 1,585, Whiting, Bibler Federal 41-5-6H, [I have been told that Whiting does not let wells go to DUC status; this may suggest a change with regard to Whiting; on the other hand it is producing; perhaps Whiting does not let a DUC go very long before completing it?], t6/18; cum 135K 12/18;
  • 33673, 2,472, Whiting, Bibler Federal 41-5-6TFHU, Stockyard Creek, t5/18; cum 111K 12/18;
  • 33672, 2,743, Whiting, Bibler 41-5-1HU, Stockyard Creek, t5/18; cum 167K 12/18;
  • 31688, 1,418, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-29-3H3, Epping, t8/16; cum 204K 12/18;
  • 31687, 2,002, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-29-3H, Epping, t8/16; cum 236K 12/18;
  • 31686, 1,957, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-8-14H, Epping, t8/16; cum 260K 12/18;
  • 31685, 1,714, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-8-14H3, Epping, t8/16; cum 168K 12/18;
  • 31684, PNC, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-29-2H, Epping,
  • 31683, loc, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-29-2H3, Epping,
  • 31682, loc, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-8-15H3, Epping,
  • 31681, PNC, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-3-5-8-15H, Epping,
  • 30948, 680, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-15W-31-30-3H3, Epping, t9/15; cum 142K 12/18; no halo effect;
  • 30947, 1,928, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-15W-31-30-3H3, Epping, t10/15; cum 195K 12/18;
  • 30946, 1,902, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-15W-31-7-14H, Stockyard Creek, t9/15 cum 163K 12/18;
  • 29698, 1,608, Whiting/KOG, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-7-16H3, Stockyard Creek, t9/15; cum 192K 12/18;
  • 29697, 2,581, Whiting/KOG, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-7-16H, 4 sections, Stockyard Creek, t9/15; cum 227K 12/18;
  • 29696, 2,645, Whiting/KOG, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-7-16H3A, 4 sections, Stockyard Creek, t9/15; cum 198K 12/18;
  • 29695, 2,312, Whiting/KOG, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-8-13H, Stockyard Creek, t9/15; cum 276K 12/18;
  • 29694, 2,413, Whiting/KOG, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-30-2H, Epping, 30 stages, 7.2 million lbs; t7/16; cum 223K 12/18;
  • 29693, 2,471, Whiting, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-30-1H, Epping, 39 stages, 10 million lbs, t7/16; cum 310K 12/18;
  • 29692, 2,273, Whiting, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-30-1H3, Epping, Three Forks, 30 stages, 7 million lbs, t7/16; cum 205K 12/18;
  • 29691, PNC, Whiting/KOG, P Bibler 155-99-16-31-30-1H3A,
  • 23390, 1,521, Whiting/KOG, P Bibler 155-99-15-31-7-15H3, Stockyard Creek, t1/13; cum245K 12/18; no halo effect;
  • 23389, 1,630, Whiting/KOG, P Bibler 155-99-15-31-7-16H, Stockyard Creek, t1/13; cum 272K 12/18;
  • 23113, 1,896, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-1-5-8-15H, Stockyard Creek, t5/13; cum 319K 12/18; appears to have a jump in production after being off-line about two months;
  • 23112, 1,991, Whiting, P Bibler 154-99-1-5-8-16H3, Stockyard Creek, t5/13; cum 251K 12/18; appears to have a jump in production after being off-line about two months;
  • 23111, 1,657, Whiting/KOG, P Bibler 154-99-1-5-29-2H, Epping, t5/13; cum 307K 12/18;
  • 23110, 1,984, Whiting/KOG, P Bibler 154-99-1-5-29-1H3, Epping, t5/13; cum 241K 12/18;
  • 22661, 1,769, Whiting/KOG, Polar Bibler 155-99-15-31-30-2H3, Epping, t1/13; cum 218K 12/18;
  • 22660, 1,554, Whiting/KOG, P Bibler 155-99-15-31-30-2H, Epping, t1/13; cum 307K 12/18;
  • 14814, PNC, Ocean Operating, Bibler 6-31, Stockyard Creek, a Madison well,
  • 8082, dry, Texas Gas, Springbrook-Bibler 1-5, Wildcat, a Red River well

The Waterton Wells -- Keene Oil Field, The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Note: of all the fields, to the best of my knowledge, Keene oil field is the only field in the Williston Basin in which all "Bakken" wells through February 12, 2019 have the "Bakken/Three Forks" designation as the "pool" on the scout ticket. I have not found that designation elsewhere. 

Updates

Permits issued in 2015
31792, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-96-13A-24-7H,

Permits issued in 2014
28465, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt,
28463, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt,
28462, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt,
28461, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt,
28414, 2,204, BR, Shenandoah 44-36MBH ULW, 4 sections, t3/15; cum 101K 6/15;
28413, 2,544, BR, Shenandoah 44-36TFH, t3/15; cum 69K 6/15;
28289, 1,643, BR, Shenandoah 34-36MBH, t2/15; cum 103K 6/15;
28288, 1,844, BR, Shenandoah 24-36TFH, t4/15; cum 53K 6/15;
28287, 2,285, BR, Shenandoah 24-36MBH, t1/15; cum 115K 6/15;
28074, 1,643, BR, Shenandoah 14-36MBH ULW, 4 sections, t1/15; cum 106K 6/15;
28073, IA, BR, Shenandoah 14-36TFH,

Permits issued in 2013
27154, 1,603, BR, Arches 34-35TFH, t7/14; cum 139K 6/15;
27153, 2,404, BR, Arches 34-35MBH, t7/14; cum 201K 6/15;
27148, 1,920, BR, Old Arches 14-35MBH ULW, 4 sections, t8/14; cum 104K 6/15;
27147, 1,440, BR, Arches 14-35TFH, t8/14; cum 77K 6/15;
27120, 1,603, BR, Arches 24-35TFH, t8/14; cum 181K 6/15;
27119, 2,324, BR, Arches 24-35MBH, t8/14; cum 163K 6/15;
25892, 1,728, BR, Blue Ridge 41-30MBH ULW, 4 sections, t6/14; cum 153K 6/15;
25891, 2,805, BR, Blue Ridge 44-31MBH, t1/14; cum 187K 6/15;
25890, 2,887, BR, Blue Ridge 44-31TFH, t1/14; cum 171K 6/15;
25888, 2,970, BR, Blue Ridge 24-31TFH, t1/14; cum 144K 6/15;
25887, 2,834, BR, Blue Ridge 23-31MBH, t1/14; cum 195K 6/15;
25886, 2,886, BR, Blue Ridge 34-31TFH, t1/14; cum 205K 6/15;
25286, 2,809, BR, Everhorse 41-3MBH, t8/13; cum 335K 6/15;
25237, 2,966, BR, Everglades 31-3TFH, t91/13; cum 248K 6/15;
25236, 2,954, BR, Everglades 2103MBH, t9/13; cum 171K 6/15;
25235, 2,285, BR, Evergldes 21-3TFH, t8/13; cum 221K 6/15;
25234, 2,879, BR, Everglades 41-3TFH, t8/13; cum 215K 6/15;
25233, 1,836, BR, Everglades 31-3MBH, t8/13; cum 204K 6/15;

Permits issued in 2012
24343, 2,880, BR, Waterton 34-32TFH, t5/13; cum 192K 6/15;
24342, 2,823, BR, Waterton 34-32MBH, t5/13; cum 229K 6/15;
24341, 2,803, BR, Waterton 44-32TFH, t5/13; cum 286K 6/15;
23838, 2,334, BR, Waterton21-29TFH, t5/13; cum 156K 6/15;
23837, 2,444, BR, Waterton 11-29MBH, t4/13; cm 174K 6/15;
23836, 2,984, BR, Waterton 11-29TFH, t4/13; cum 174K 6/15;
23570, 2,602, Newfield, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-23-14-10H, t2/13; cum 217K 6/15;
 
Permits issued in 2011
21592, 2,771, Newfield, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-23-14-3H, t2/13; cum 243K 6/15;
21591, 2,688, Newfield, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-23-14-2H, t2/13; cum 255K 6/15;
20823, 2,880, BR, Arches 44-35TFH, t6/12; cum 304K 6/15;
20621, 3,591, BR, Blue Ridge 14-31TFH, t5/12; cum285K 6/15;
20560, 2,124, BR, Everglades 11-3TFH, t8/12; cum 267K 6/15;
20559, 1,675, BR, Shenandoah

Original Post
 
Keene oil field is in the "heart of the Bakken," the northeast corner of McKenzie, just south of the phenomenal Charlson oil field and a few miles due north of the Grail. The Keene oil field is an old Williston Basin oil field, very irregularly shaped, and only 17 sections big (if I counted correctly).

These are the Waterton wells in Keene oil field:
  • 24343, 2,880, BR, Waterton 34-32TFH, Keene, Three Forks, t5/13; cum 275K 6/18;
  • 24342, 2,823, BR, Waterton 34-32MBH, Keene, middle Bakken; t5/13; cum 334K 6/18;
  • 24341, 2,803, BR, Waterton 44-32TFH, Keene, t5/13; cum 421K 6/18;
  • 23838, 2,334, BR, Waterton 21-29TFH, Keene, t5/13; cum 235K 6/18;
  • 23837, 2,444, BR, Waterton 11-29MBH, Keene, t4/13; cum 247K 6/18;
  • 23836, 2,984, BR, Waterton 11-29TFH, t4/13; cum 275K 6/18;
  • 17970, 987, BR, Waterton 34-32H, Keene, t4/09; cum 237K 6/18;
I track the Blue Ridge wells in the Keeen oil field here.

Train Wreck And Remembering Amtrak -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Politcal In Nature And Reminiscing -- Please Ignore If You Came Here For The Bakken

Updates

Later, 11:14 pm: This is another example of crazy coincidences. Earlier I posted a story of an $82,000 parking spot in San Francisco -- see below. That was a few hours ago. Now, while watching the late evening news, there was a story about two back-to-back parking spots on Commonwealth Avenue in the Back Bay of Boston went, through auction, for $560,000. The record for a single parking spot in Boston is $300,000.

Two rambling notes. First, I have no idea what possesses me to post some non-Bakken posts. But I am always surprised how timely some of them happen to be.

Second, a more personal note. Back in 1973, I spent some time visiting a close friend who lived on Commonwealth Avenue, Boston. I was on my way home from a summer hitchhiking in Europe. I had hitchhiked from Williston to NYC earlier that summer on my way to Europe (Icelandic Airlines), but I would take Amtrak home from Boston to North Dakota. (Yes, Amtrak began operations in 1971.)

Original Post

This is not good news.

The LA Times is reporting:
Kaiser Permanente has offered some of the highest rates in the California health exchanges next year. It denies that it is doing so to avoid treating many of the sickest newly insured patients. 
The lede:
In California's new state-run health insurance market, Kaiser Permanente will cost you.
The healthcare giant has the highest rates in Southern California and some other areas of the state, surpassing rivals such as Anthem Blue Cross and other smaller competitors.
The relatively high premiums from such a strong supporter of the federal healthcare law surprised industry analysts, and it has sparked considerable debate about the company's motives.
Some experts say Kaiser intentionally bid high to avoid drawing too many customers next year who are sick or who have been uninsured for years and may be costlier to treat. Others suspect Kaiser was worried that lower premiums would bring an influx of newly insured patients that could overwhelm its in-house roster of doctors and hospitals.
Cue up Connie Francis.

Read the story closely.

My hunch is that others will re-assess their bids. One does not want to become the low-cost premium  provider of healthcare in California.

Wow. Train wreck.

*****************************

But everything is relative. A San Francisco parking spot was sold for $82,000.
What’s eight feet wide and 12 feet deep and sells for $82,000?
As it turns out, a parking spot near San Francisco’s AT&T Park.
The enclosed parking spot in a condo building in the South Park neighborhood is creating buzz in a town where the housing market is so hot most things fail to startle.
But San Francisco Chronicle columnist C.W. Nevius reports Thursday the parking deal might be part of a new trend.
The spot was sold last week by Sean Sullivan, an agent with Climb Real Estate who had some experience: He sold another one in the same building for $95,000 during San Francisco’s last boom.
What a great country. Rental units are subject to rent control, but apparently not rental spaces. 

Six (6) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; MRO Has A Nice Well; Wells Coming Off Confidential List Friday -- Several Nice Wells

Active rigs: 184 (down)

Six (6) new permits --
  • Operators: Whiting (5), G3 Operating
  • Fields: Camel Hump (Golden Valley), Marmon (Williams), Pleasant Hill (McKenzie), Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list have been posted; see sidebar at the right.

One permit cancelled:
  • 23239, PNC, Whiting, Prairie Rose 34-11PH, Heart River,
Two producing wells completed:
  • 23586, 539, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Farthing 31-30-158N-100W, Church
  • 24083, 1,344, MRO, Kevin Schmidt 44-32H, Murphy Creek,
Wells coming off the confidential list Friday:
  • 22570, drl, Hunt Oil, Antelope 1-36-25H, no data,
  • 22576, 524, OXY USA, Federal Steffan 1-7-6H-142-96, Manning, t12/12; cum 18K 4/13;
  • 22590, 621, OXY USA, Lamey 2-30-31H-143-96, Fayette, t11/12; cum 49K 4/13;
  • 22826, drl, G3 Operating, Helstad 157-99-2A-11-1H, Lone Tree Lake,
  • 23080, 1,020, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-18B-2H, Charlson, t3/13; cum 21K 4/13;
  • 23223, drl, G3 Operating, Fort Berthold 148-94-22A-27-2H, McGregory Buttes,
  • 23453, 1,479, WPX Energy, Dancing Bull 16-21HD, Van Hook, t4/13; cum 25K 4/13;
  • 23916, 605, Samson Resources, Almos Farms 0112-2TFH, Ambrose, t4/13; cum 11K 4/13;
  • 24329, drl, Cambridge Production, Larson 1, wildcat, no data,
  • 24399, drl, QEP, MHA 3-04-33H-150-92, Heart Butte, no data,
24493, see below, CLR, Stedman 3-24H3, Hebron,

 ****************************

22576, see above, OXY USA, Federal Steffan 1-7-6H-142-96, Manning:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-201327171012
3-201336291458
2-20132521503
1-20134100955
12-201247871772

 22590, see above, OXY USA, Lamey 2-30-31H-143-96, Fayette:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-2013121084679
3-201347100
2-201331810
1-201372010
12-2012135190

22826, see above, G3 Operating, Helstad 157-99-2A-11-1H, Lone Tree Lake:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-2013119340
3-201384940

23080, see above, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-18B-2H, Charlson:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-2013119500
3-201388000

23223, see above, G3 Operating, Fort Berthold 148-94-22A-27-2H, McGregory Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-2013141950
3-2013175810

23453, see above, WPX Energy, Dancing Bull 16-21HD, Van Hook:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20132407014113
3-20132290

23916, see above, Samson Resources, Almos Farms 0112-2TFH, Ambrose:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-201375930
3-201323830

 24493, see above, CLR, Stedman 3-24H3, Hebron:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20132791372
3-20133328366

Williston Wire Highlights

Headlines only, no links. It is easy to subscribe to the Williston Wire.

ND's Maah Daah Hey Trail is one of the nation's top ten bicycle trails.

Tioga Freedom Fest, July 4 - 7, 2013.

Blast, Rockin' Ribfest, July 6, 2013, in Williston.

North Dakota needs more rental providers for outdoor adventurer tourists.

USAF Reserve aerial mosquito spraying on federal and non-federal land in western North Dakota.

Grand Forks native wins Miss ND

Best story of the day: Williston Economic Development "hires" volunteer; 15 y/o Max Jundt, from Minneapolis; says he loves the fast pace of Williston; "McDonald's says it all."

Are They Nuts Or Are They On To Something? A Note To The Granddaughters

A Note To The Granddaughters

When I first read this story, I thought "they" were nuts.

The "they" being Steven Spielberg and George Lucas.

The Hollywood Reporter is reporting:
Steven Spielberg on Wednesday predicted an "implosion" in the film industry is inevitable, whereby a half dozen or so $250 million movies flop at the box office and alter the industry forever. What comes next -- or even before then -- will be price variances at movie theaters, where "you're gonna have to pay $25 for the next Iron Man, you're probably only going to have to pay $7 to see Lincoln." He also said that Lincoln came "this close" to being an HBO movie instead of a theatrical release.
George Lucas agreed that massive changes are afoot, including film exhibition morphing somewhat into a Broadway play model, whereby fewer movies are released, they stay in theaters for a year and ticket prices are much higher. His prediction prompted Spielberg to recall that his 1982 film E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial stayed in theaters for a year and four months.
I don't go to movies any more. I stopped going some years ago. I last recall going to movies when we lived on the north side of San Antonio (Texas) near a multiplex. When we moved nearer downtown to San Antonio, I quit going. I don't miss the movie-going experience at all any more. My wife is a huge movie-goer and gets really upset when I refuse to go with her; she ends up going with a friend. Just for her, I did see Lincoln at the theater, but that was the only movie in five (?) years.

The other day I did buy Tarantino's new movie, out on DVD. At my new apartment in Dallas area I do not yet have cable television and I don't miss it a bit. I am really enjoying classics, old movies, and new movies on the computer. Before the year is out, I told my wife I plan to put some serious money into some large Apple monitors (yes, plural) just for DVDs and streaming.

Earlier this week I watched the Apple WWDC life, streaming, on my little laptop, and it was awesome. It was as clear and as reliable as television (by the way, Apple's streaming was only available on the Safari browser I believe (I could be wrong on that, but I was unable to access the streaming WWDC keynote speech on Firefox, my preferred browser).

I can generally watch NASCAR on the computer browser when I can't find a sports bar.

But I digress. Wow, I have digressed.

Back to Spielberg. I would love to do a poll on his prediction (that movies like Iron Man will play in theaters for a year-and-a-half, like Broadway shows, and will be priced at $25 or more, like Broadway shows. But the likelihood of this happening won't be here for at least a decade, and thus sort of makes a poll pointless.

When I first read the story, as noted above, I thought "they" were nuts. But while watching CNBC waiting to pick up the granddaughters, I caught a teaser that CNBC was going to report this story "after the break." I didn't see CNBC's report but it got me to thinking.

It's counter-intuitive, but I think Spielberg is on to something. I think he's correct. It's very counter-intuitive. Two clues: a) it's "back to the future; and, b) think Hugh Hefner.

(And with Hugh Hefner, it has nothing to do with what first came to your mind. Nothing. At. All.)

Interesting How Oil Has Held Up This Week -- All Due To The Strength Of The Dollar

Updates

June 15, 2013: this is so cool. The point of the original post was to point out I was confused on what President O'Bama's policy with regard to the Syrian Civil War. It turns out I'm not the only one confused. Senator John McCain (RINO-AZ) was so confused he had to retract his initial statement suggesting the US was to supply the rebels with ammunition.  

Original Post

On another note, the White House has acknowledged that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons in Syria. According to the president, such use would be "crossing a red line."  In response, the President has issued a statement which will take several days to translate, and even longer to understand. These are the specific repercussions Syria has to face for having used chemical weapons;
Following on the credible evidence that the regime has used chemical weapons against the Syrian people, the President has augmented the provision of non-lethal assistance to the civilian opposition, and also authorized the expansion of our assistance to the Supreme Military Council (SMC), and we will be consulting with Congress on these matters in the coming weeks.
Lost in translation:
  • non-lethal assistance: food?
  • expansion of our assistance to the Supreme Military Council: more presidential statements?
  • consulting with Congress: slow-rolling the rebels?
Oh, by the way: the Syrian rebels, whom the Obama administration is now assisting, pledge allegiance to Al-Qaeda. 

Enquiring Minds Want To Know -- Random Notes From Another Planet -- Page 5



September 29, 2013: EOG announces 34 wells on a drilling unit, and TR&E were last seen discussing the issue of flaring natural gas. LOL.

September 24, 2013: now that the Bakken Shale Discussion Group is effectively shut down (archives are not even accessible), I'm getting a lot of personal e-mail requesting data that the group used to provide. Because I don't have internet at home, I may not get to the e-mail for a few hours. But I reply to all non-spam e-mail.

September 20, 2013: I see an enquiring mind is wondering why "his" permit east of Minot was cancelled. LOL. And so it goes. Huge thanks to another reader.

September 16, 2013: I see TR&E are still talking about flared natural gas. Huge thanks to another reader.

September 14, 2013: I am told that the biggest story this week over at the TR&E discussion group is pondering the question: "hey, where did everyone go?" 

September 9, 2013: it looks like the Bakken Shale Discussion Group is shutting down.

September 8, 2013: Due to some emotional misinformation some enquiring minds are under the impression that the Three Forks formation is thicker than the middle Bakken. That may be true in some areas, but is certainly not true in all areas. In fact, in some areas, the Three Forks thins out pretty remarkably. Interestingly, in the Whiting presentation for August, 2013, Whiting clearly shows the Three Forks as thinner than the middle Bakken. Take a look at slide 10. The middle Bakken is clearly thicker than the Three Forks in much (all?) of the graphic. On another note, it is interesting to note that Whiting notes four zones in the middle Bakken, Zones A, B, C, and D.

September 8, 2013: wow, another Indian has left. First, Craig Cooper called it quits (see link below, September 6, "friendly). Now, another individual has has his full of "North Dakota friendliness": Bob Finley calls it quits. Sad face.  The triumvirate (T-R-E) is driving everyone away. Just as well. Nonsense.

September 6, 2013: heaven help this poor enquiring mind, asking the simple question why the rig has been moved off "his" pad. I assume the drillers reached total depth, and now they are waiting for the frack team to come in. Wonders never cease. 

September 6, 2013: so much for "discussion" for enquiring minds. Wow. Another individual cut off at the knees for talking about the Bakken. This puts the "friendly" in North Dakota. LOL.

September 4, 2013: enquiring minds provide a great example of a well that will be shut in or permanently abandoned if it is not allowed to flare gas. It is producing almost no oil, no natural gas, and it is so remote that it is not a bit economical to put in a natural gas gathering pipeline. I assume the flaring is almost minuscule. At the link, see the comment made this date at 9:20 a.m. The well itself has been on-line since 2008 and has produced less than 50,000 bbls of oil. The well serves a purpose for Statoil otherwise they would have abandoned it already. Currently, the well is producing 300 bbls of oil /month. At $100 at the wellhead --> $30,000/month. It is producing 0.3 MMCFT/month of natural gas; at $5.00 at the well head, this is $1.50 at the wellhead. My math might be off, but I doubt it. If enquiring minds are worried about wasting natural gas, it would help to use better examples.  

September 1, 2013: an enquiring mind wants to know if a well is sited in a section adjacent to where he has mineral rights, will he participate in royalties? No.

August 31, 2013: finally, an adult steps in with regard to the silly discussion regarding flaring. He is correct: Lynn Helms and the NDIC can stop the flaring immediately. The NDIC only has to do two things: a) deny all waivers/requests for extensions to flare; and, b) deny any more multi-well pad drilling where service lines are not in place. With regard to investors and fracking: I am an investor and I am skittish, and so are many other investors with whom I correspond. The activists will do what they can to shut down the Bakken. Right or wrong, that is the perception of some of us who invest in the Bakken through equities. That is also true for developers based on personal correspondence. There was no explanation why "service lines" are not being put in by the operators which suggests a lack of understanding by the adult with regard to the economics of drilling, or a lack of understanding on my part. I'm willing to learn. Certainly the operators are not be discouraged from putting in these service lines by the commission. By the way, I do not find the monthly "Director's Cuts" political in any sense of the word. Ninety-four percent of the information is simply statistical and factual. The other six percent is narrative and provides insight to how the commission is interpreting the information. I am surprised the NDIC is so transparent; no other state provides such expansive information and comment, and I have spent a fair amount of time looking for data from other states. Ohio releases statistical information once a year, I thought I read somewhere. I'm sure I will be corrected. I would think folks would be happy to see how the commissioner interprets the data. However, even if the six percent narrative is political, or if the entire document is political, I am surprised someone would be aghast. I am unaware of almost anything not being seen politically these days. I think baseball scores involving the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox have become political.  But the writer's concern does provide some insight into the ban on any political discussion at that site. By the way, I am 100% in favor of that ban. If the ban were not in effect, ninety-four percent of the comments would be political in nature. 

August 26, 2013: elsewhere they seem to be unable to answer a very simple question If flaring is a waste, then "they" simply have to shut down any well that is flaring gas; it's very simple. In fact, in a few months this should all take care of itself when the Feds implement new fracking rules which will ultimately result in less drilling and less flaring. This is not rocket science.

August 22, 2013: elsewhere an enquiring mind is asking about "non-consent insurance." The individual brings up an issue that I anticipated a year ago; I don't remember if I blogged about it. I anticipated that pad drilling would become a significant issue for small royalty owners to participate in drilling a well. This well needs to be shut down -- it is simply flaring (and wasting) too much natural gas. [Update: the replies, once again, speak volumes about how much folks know about the process, and the incredible laboratory the Bakken has been for the nation's energy revolution. They also don't understand the economics of an oil well; if it costs $10 million to put in a natural gas pipeline and the natural gas will ultimately pay back $1 million, it doesn't make sense to put in the pipeline, now does it? With their kind of thinking, might as well shut down the well. And for them, the following video:

Rosemarie, Andy Kaufman

August 18, 2013: elsewhere it appears all the questions have been answered; there have been no more new posts since August 11, 2013, one of the longest stretches in which no one has posted anything.

August 7, 2013: an enquiring mind has highlighted a perfect example of a well that would be shut down if the operator was forced to run a pipeline all the way to the well; so little natural gas is being produced it would not be economical; in fact, so little crude oil is being produced about the only thing this well appears to be good for is holding the lease by production. And this is a perfect example of why I moderate comments. I hate to embarrass folks.

August 7, 2013: this should be interesting to follow -- an enquiring mind asks --
Does anyone know how I can keep track of this well, especially the number 180989? Well #180989 Hayes 11X-18 in McKenzie Co. ND with the legal description Sec 12  Twn 153N Range 98W.
Looking at the GIS map server, I see no permitted location in this section (12-153-98).  In addition, according to the GIS map server, there is only one "Hayes" well and that is the Hayes 1-6H. Finally, well file numbers issued by the NDIC do not exceed five digits, currently running in the 25000 range. Well #180989 simply does not exist -- at least in my database.

August 6, 2013: an enquiring mind wants to know what Hess is requesting when asking to produce oil at an unrestricted rate and flare gas produced in association with the production. This is a standard boilerplate request. The NDIC requires that flaring end by six- to twelve-months after a well begins production (I forget the exact rules). But at some point, flaring at a specific well has to end; if not, the operator is penalized. Operators can ask for a waiver and they routinely do so when, for economic reasons, they continue to flare natural gas. The NDIC, from my limited experience, seems to take a reasonable view when adjudicating these requests. The Baskin oil field is relatively undeveloped and the natural gas gathering and processing infrastructure is either not in place or inadequate in size to "handle" the natural gas that is a by-product of the Bakken oil play.

August 2, 2013: this should be an interesting thread to follow. A question is being asked about "overlapping units" and the GIS map server.  The individual actually brings up a couple of points.

Disregard the comment "some operators request one over the other." Overlapping spacing units has nothing to do with "preference" by "operator" -- per se.

However, the other question is much more interesting: how can one tell where the overlapping spacing units are by using the GIS map server?

This is the best I can do. Go to the GIS map server. Zoom in so that you are looking at these fields: Twin Valley in the far northwest; Antelope in the far east/northeast; Reunion Bay in the far east/southeast; and, Elidah in the far southwest. At the legend on the right side, put a check mark in the square box opposite "2560 Acre"; a dot in the circle opposite "2560 Acre"; and, a check in the square box opposite "1280 Acre."   You will see a portion of the GIS map server with lots of teal (greenish-blue) and a bit of purple. The teal is 1280-acre spacing; the purple is 2560-acre spacing.

The spacing units are lined with a white border (generally - almost always -- along section lines). The teal and the purple spacing units are "standard" spacing units. Now, lean back in your chair a bit, and look for "**1280** and/or **2560** on the GIS map server. Those represent "overlapping spacing units. The number (either a **1280** or a **2560** is placed at the "bottom" of the overlapping spacing unit.

So as an example: in Blue Buttes, 151N-95W, just along the south section line of sections 9 and 10, you will see **2560**. That means that sections 4,3, 9, and 10, is an overlapping spacing unit.

Disregard the numbers preceded by a "c" in this discussion. Numbers with a preceding "c" means that these spacing units are still being considered by an active case (hearing docket case). 

July 27, 2013: a penny for your thoughts.

July 18, 2013: a thread on EOG's water injection in the Bakken

July 15, 2013: speaking of enquiring minds, the other day someone mentioned he never understood "cross wells." I posted an explanation of cross wells back in 2010. The search engine for the blog is incredible.

July 15, 2013: an enquiring mind is wondering why #17389, EN-Cvancara, is on "IA" (inactive status). The well is a good well, not yet on a pump. It was taken off-line for a few days in April, 2013, but is now back on-line and producing. It may have been brought off-line to put on a pump. But the fact that production did not increase in May, my hunch is that a pump was not put on. More likely is the fact that two wells on/near the drilling pad of #17389 were fracked on/about April, 2013, most like necessitating taking #17389 off-line. No one has yet provided the enquiring mind a response, but one of two things will likely occur: a) no response ever; or, b) cut and paste of what has been posted. [Update, July 16, 2013: the well is back on active status. End of mystery, if there ever was one.]

July 10, 2013: for those folks interested in partnering with an oil company drilling an oil well in lieu of leasing their minerals, this thread, starting about July 9, is helpful, if not interesting. Or is that interesting, if not helpful. Whatever. But this individual elected to participate in a well that was estimated to cost about $10 million before drilling began, and apparently has ballooned to $16 million. (Investing in Hollywood movies has a very similar history well known to those who produce movies.) A three-percent interest in a $10 million well would cost you $300,000 up front; ballooning to $16 million would cost you an additional $180,000.

July 8, 2013: I've linked this thread before, but Craig has it exactly right in is post of July 8, 2013. I was hoping someone would articulate it as well as he did. I tried but knew I couldn't, so didn't. Craig will now be jumped on and skewered by others instead of a serious (intelligent) discussion.

June 30, 2013: here we go again.

June 27, 2013: an enquiring mind seeks information on lease rates for several locations, and wonders about future prospects. The individual notes that two of the locations do not have any any active wells. Unless I am misreading the NDIC GIS map server, in fact, all locations have horizontal laterals, and thus the leases are held by production.  This area is right in the heart of the Bakken and there will be at least a dozen wells in each spacing unit before it's all over, and possibly many, many more.

June 22, 2013: an enquiring mind is asking how to figure decimal interest on division orders complicated by a pre-existing 4.5% royalty deed clause. It's a very, very good question; I had a devil of a time figuring it out. A reader sent in an easy explanation. 

June 21, 2013: an enquiring mind is curious to see what an additional wellhead is worth to the operator. There is currently one wellhead on "his" pad and has been offered $5,000 for a second wellhead. Imagine a pad with 14 wells --> $70,000 plus, of course, royalties from the additional wells if the surface owner still retains some of the minerals. Staggering.

June 19, 2013: Z-Man's Energy Brain posted a nice link to a Samson Resources presentation in this thread. Z-Man's comment: Samson is drilling a vertical program, east of where we normally think of Bakken//TFS, skip to slide 26 at the presentation.

The presentation: http://www.samsonoilandgas.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1671-14783634/IPAAOGISPresentationNewYork

June 15, 2013: an enquiring mind is wondering about an "entry referring to non-cash charges for 'impairment' to its proven and unproven properties." That's a great question. A definition can be found here.  My hunch: Magnum Hunter lowered the value of some of its property. For example, Magnum Hunter could have been carrying $5,000/acre for some of its acreage, but now realizes it may be worth closer to $3,000/acre.

It's Starting To Make Sense: Why We're Not Seeing Much Activity In The Spearfish, The Tyler, The Madison, The Red River

These remarks from the Director, NDIC, Lynn Helms, explains why we are not seeing a lot of activity in the Spearfish, Tyler, Madison, or Red River formations right now. But, drilling these formations will come in due time. One can almost predict how this will play out.

Geologic column:
Geology has been very, very good to the state of  North Dakota. The state has the entire sedimentary column from the Pre-Cambrian, all the way up to the Cretaceous Age and into the Tertiary Age. Essentially the whole column is still there. This is very unique. It does not exist in Pennsylvania; it does not exist in Colorado; it does not exist in California.
It really is interesting, isn't it? Not only does North Dakota have the entire sedimentary column, and not only is that not duplicated elsewhere (perhaps Texas?), the Bakken oil play is almost entirely within the borders of the state of North Dakota. I've not been impressed with results just to the west (Montana) or just to the north (Canada along the border; and, of course, "nothing" (yet) to speak of to the south (South Dakota). 

America's Oil Boom: It's Bigger Than You Think -- CNBC

Video when it becomes available.

The Geologic Column In North Dakota Above The Bakken

January 30, 2013
Energy Generation Conference
Lynn Helms, Director, NDIC
YouTube source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NcrEdX348qQ; (no longer available, unfortunately)

Paraphrasing, some direct quotes. See linked video tube for source.

Disclaimer: there will be errors in my notes below. I post these for my benefit for a couple of reasons. They are not meant for the general public. The general public should listen to and view the YouTube video, not read my notes.

Geologic column:
Geology has been very, very good to the state of  North Dakota. The state has the entire sedimentary column from the Pre-Cambrian, all the way up to the Cretaceous Age and into the Tertiary Age. Essentially the whole column is still there. This is very unique. It does not exist in Pennsylvania; it does not exist in Colorado; it does not exist in California.
Diamond exploration in North Dakota also mentioned. Red River area. Think Fargo.

At/Near The Surface

One of the most exciting opportunities: clay deposits in southwest North Dakota and natural gas in the Bakken --> proppants.

Proppant: on average 2 million lbs of sand and 2 million lbs of ceramics for each well. Sand comes from Minnesota and Wisconsin; ceramics comes from China.

Next: coal. ND has an 800-year supply of lignite. But coal production in ND decreasing; a concern. ND is the first state to complete its coal inventory. It represents only about 5 to 10% of our total coal deposits. Coal gasification discussed.

Geothermal energy: installations spiked in 2010/2011, but then dropped in 2012 because natural gas was so inexpensive.

Uranium: thorium reactors discussed. ND uranium deposits include thorium and molybdenum.

A little bit deeper into the column

Natural Gas: Pierre, Niobrara, Carlile, and Greenhorn formations.

Shallow methane deposits.

Methane in drinking water? A baseline has been established; the study was completed four years ago. An anecdote regarding 5% methane in drinking well water north of Fargo on the far east side of the state. Naturally occurring methane (this does not come from fracking).

Some really exciting biogenic deposits of methane in the Red River. Not economic to produce it now.

Waster water going into the Dakota Group formations. Only one spot where the Dakota Group comes to the surface: north of Grand Forks. Permitting 10 wells/month for salt water disposal into the Dakota Group. We will need about 1,600 (3/township) disposal wells in the Bakken.  $2 - $3 million to drill a well; payback in one year; last 50 to 60 years. Do the math. Huge economic driver in the Bakken. Will be placed about every ten minutes apart.

EOR. Will finalize CO2 storage rules this year, and then go to the EPA for primacy. Companies already waiting and ready to go. North Dakota could be a national sink for CO2. One thousand years worth of CO2 storage space.

Spearfish formation: currently on the back burner; still active; but quiet. Canadians are happy with the results, but not the well costs; the Bakken is pricing them out. Mostly exploratory now, but sitting back, waiting, expecting to be fully active in 3 - 5 years, at hundreds of wells/year. One small area in Bottineau County will have 2,400 wells; 24 wells/square mile. Biggest concern: providing electricity to all these wells.

Tyler formation: a bit farther out in the future. One company cored the Tyler in 2012. The "next big thing" after the Bakken/Three Forks. Estimating one billion bbls recoverable. So, if Spearfish is 3 - 5 years and the Tyler is later, think about 5 - 7 years from now for the big breakthrough.

Mission Canyon: historically the biggest; looking for a "renaissance;"maybe fracking the Mission Canyon will be in the offing. Hard to say.

Then, at 19:45: he moves into the Bakken.

One comment for the cocktail hour tonight: not one dry hole in 2012. Eight-five percent of the wells returned a 10% or greater return for investors. There is no better investment.

On a similar note:

The most famous pitch in history

This is a bit fuzzy; for a nice, clear, video, click here

Train Wreck: Wal-Mart Hiring Temporary Workers -- Any Idea Why? A New Poll

Updates

Later, 3:48 pm: on a day that the market surges, up 204 points, Microsoft is one of the losers, dropping more than half a percent. The announcement that MSFT is moving stores into Best Buy is seen as a lose-lose: a) Best Buy is not where folks are buying their electronics; and, b) this is an admission by MSFT that it cannot compete head-on with Apple. When folks can compare the Apple iPad or miniPad side-by-side with the Surface, there is no comparison, especially when priced about the same. It is down right (fill-in-the-blank) when seeing Apple stores across from Microsoft stores in malls. Apple stores are filled; Microsoft stores are empty. In addition, Apple stores are not found in many malls; only in upscale malls. Best Buy is not upscale.

It's also possible this is still a residual effect from the worldwide developers' conference hosted by Apple earlier this week. One can argue whether Apple can still innovate, but Microsoft announced the return of the "Start" button on the upgrade to its new operating system, while Apple announced hundreds of "innovations" to its new operating system.

Disclaimer: I apologize to all my non-Apple friends out there. I am Apple Fanboy #3. I am more passionate about Apple than I am about the Bakken. So, don't take me seriously. I'm just part of the cult. I do not invest in AAPL, never have, and never will. I have not read the Steve Jobs biography but I do have a copy (a gift from my wife), and plan to read it this summer.

Original Post

Reuters is reporting, in an "exclusive":
Wal-Mart Stores Inc has in recent months been only hiring temporary workers at many of its U.S. stores, the first time the world's largest retailer has done so outside of the holiday shopping season.
A Reuters survey of 52 stores run by the largest U.S. private employer in the past month, including one in every U.S. state, showed that 27 were hiring only temps, 20 were hiring a combination of regular full, part-time and temp jobs, and five were not hiring at all.
The survey was based on interviews with managers, sales staff and human resource department employees at the stores.
The new hiring policy is to ensure "we are staffed appropriately," when the stores are busiest and is not a cost-cutting move, said company spokesman David Tovar.
Temporary workers, he said, are paid the same starting pay as other workers.
Using temporary workers enables the company to have adequate staff on busy weeknights and weekends without having to hire additional full-time staff.
The headline is a bit misleading. First of all, it does not seem to be a company-wide policy. Only 27 of 52 stores canvassed were actually limiting new hires to temporary workers. Ninety percent of Wal-Mart employees are full-time. The number of temporary employees generally represents about 1% of their overall workforce; they are now represent about 10%.

Could Wal-Mart be preparing itself for the train wreck? Or is Wal-Mart simply responding to customers needs to improve customer service?

Time for a new poll.

But first, the results of the current poll in which we asked:  Will the US grant any more LNG export licenses in 2013?
  • Yes: 65%
  • No: 35%
Now, the new poll. In light of the Reuters story about Wal-Mart hiring more temporary workers to staff evenings, weekends, and holidays, is that credible. Is Wal-Mart hiring more temporary workers to improve customer service, to prepare for the Train Wreck, or both?

**********************

Microsoft seems to have trouble finding its home. I don't know how many malls in which I've been in where Apple has a store and  either there is no Microsoft store, or there was one that had closed. Now I see, June 13, 2013, Microsoft has announced they will have a Microsoft store in 600 Best Buy stores across the nation.

They need each other.

Microsoft hardware, the Surface, has been a bust, and worse, Windows 8.0 was a bust. Microsoft was forced to upgrade to Windows 8.1 which included one new feature: a return to the "Start" button. I cannot make this stuff up.

On the other hand, Best Buy is the "last one standing" and this big box is also likely to downsize before it's all over.  I don't know where the argument "go private or die" for Best Buy stands any more. But I doubt it's good news.

As noted above: Best Buy is a good fit for Microsoft.

For The Archives: Why The US Shale Boom Could End Sooner Than Later -- Forbes

Forbes is reporting:
“If OPEC hopes to maintain any semblance of its cartel pricing power now would be the time for its members to boost their oil output, drive prices down, bankrupt marginal American producers and regain market share for the long-term,” says Ed Hirs, a lecturer in energy economics at the University of Houston, and a member of the Yale Graduates In Energy study group.
A long time the MDW presented that as the basis for a poll. That possibility rated very low, if I recall correctly the results of that poll. 

I, too, have never understood the business model in the Bakken:
So how much oil you need to produce in order to cover $4.5 billion, and how much additional cash you’ll have to deploy in drilling costs to get that oil? Here’s some back-of-envelope calculations: First, dilling a well costs about $8.5 million. Each Bakken well will produce a cumulative 500,000 barrels or so over 10 years — about 450,000 after deducting royalty payments to landowners. That works out to drilling costs of roughly $19 per barrel.
Then there’s roughly $5 a bbl in taxes and $3 a bbl for pipelines and infrastructure and a couple bucks for seismic and other overhead, for total costs of about $29 per barrel. Assuming that Statoil can sell its oil for about $75 a barrel (after transportation costs and accounting for differentials to WTI), that leaves about $46 per barrel after all those costs to go towards that $4.5 billion.
All told that works out to roughly 100 million barrels Statoil needs to produce just to break even. And to get those 100 million barrels Statoil will have had to lay out an additional $2.9 billion or so in drilling expenditures. Add it all up and Statoil will have had to lay out about $7.4 billion over five years before they produce enough oil to start making a profit in the Bakken.
My hunch: there are a few data points we are not considering. 

TPLM's Blowout Quarter -- Mike Filloon

Seeking Alpha is reporting:
As it turns out, Triangle's accounting issue was a non-factor for its most recent quarter. Buying Triangle on the pullback has been profitable, and the stock still has room to run. I recommended adding shares at $5.26/share. Since April 16th, the stock is up almost $1.50/share. Triangle blew out the quarter with revenues of $34.3 million versus analyst estimates of $31.13 million. A year ago, Triangle had only $5.17 in sales.
EPS came in at 10 cents/share versus analyst estimates of 7 cents. A year ago it lost 7 cents/share. January of 2013 earnings were a different story as Triangle reported a 20 cent loss versus the Street's 0 cents. For more information on this go to my last article, but I will give an overview of why the stock pulled back as much as it did. Triangle has a pressure pumping business called Rockpile. 
Disclaimer: This is not an investment site; do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you might have read here.  

Costs Of Drilling In The Bakken -- Motley Fool

I don't think there's a lot new in this Motley Fool article for regular readers of the blog, but it's a nice summary of what Bakken operators are spending to complete a well in the Bakken:
Similarly, Newfield Exploration said that it's currently drilling and completing wells in the range of about $8 million-$8.5 million, even recently completing a best-in-class well for $7.4 million. That's a massive improvement over the company's average first-quarter gross completed well cost, which came in at $9.8 million. 
Most of the other Bakken operators are also mentioned, including KOG:
And last but not least is Kodiak Oil & Gas, a company whose operations are almost exclusively focused in the Williston Basin. Though Kodiak pays more per well than the aforementioned firms since its wells tend to be much deeper, it too managed to bring well costs down to the $9.7 million-$10.2 million range, a roughly 15%-20% reduction from year-ago levels.

Initial Claims At Lowest Number Since Early May -- Is That, Like, Three Weeks Ago? Since Early May; As Bad As The Early Days Of The 2007 - 2009 Recession; Number Receiving Benefits Increased After Many Weeks Of Falling

"Job watch" numbers have lost all credibility (see earlier posts) but for what they are worth, here they are:
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 334,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
That was the smallest number of first-time applications since early May and near levels last seen the early days of the 2007-09 recession.
And, of course, next week these numbers, by then long forgotten, will be revised.

Lost in translation:
" Moreover, it has been difficult to discern any increase in layoffs due to Washington's embrace of harsher fiscal austerity this year."  Translation: the sequester had no effect on layoffs despite administration doing all it could to make the sequester as painful as possible.
After weeks of falling:
The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid rose 2,000 to 2.97 million in the week ended June 1.
That bit of trivia was buried at the end of the article. 

What do analysts think about the job market? They thought first time claims would decrease by 1,000. Very pessimistic that group. As noted above, the decline was 12X that number. 12 times.

And finally,
The four-week moving average for new claims, which irons out week-to-week volatility, dropped 7,250 to 345,250.
That four-week moving average has changed little in the past two years.

***********************
A Note To The Granddaughters

It was a beautiful day in the Boston area yesterday.  Before they leave Massachusetts for ever and ever, for Texas, the granddaughters have a number of "to-do" items. One of them was to visit Walden Pond one more time. The younger daughter stayed home to work on her "Happy Father's Day" artwork.

The older one and I went to Walden Pond; it's a 20-minute drive by automobile. Because it was an early release day from school, we got there early and spent a couple of hours walking around the pond.

What a great day. She is incredibly observant. The highlight of her nature observations was seeing a crayfish. From wiki:
Crayfish – also called crawfish or crawdads – are freshwater crustaceans resembling small lobsters, to which they are related. They breathe through feather-like gills and are found in bodies of water that do not freeze to the bottom. They are mostly found in brooks and streams where there is fresh water running, and which have shelter against predators. Most crayfish cannot tolerate polluted water. Crayfish feed on living and dead animals and plants.
I did not know that crayfish were that sensitive to polluted water. It was notable that Walden Pond is incredibly clear: one can see the bottom of the pond several feet out before it gets incredibly deep.

The pond is huge, for a pond, but incredibly small for a named body of water that is so small. It would only take about 40 minutes to walk around the entire pond, and at any point, one can easily see the other side. It appears swimmers enjoy the challenge of swimming across this body of water, some with wet suits; some without. It had at least four coves, all named: Thoreau's Cove, of course; Long Cove, Little Cove, and maybe, Fort Cove (I forget the name of that one).

For being so near Boston, I am impressed that the pond is so accessible, and even more impressed there seem to be so few rules. Allowed: picnics; sunbathing on the fine sandy beach; swimming without a lifeguard presence; boating (no engines, obviously); fishing; wading; open till dark. Free. $5 parking fee.

We walked up to Henry D. Thoreau's homesite where our granddaughter placed a small stone along with all the others that had been placed there over the years. No graffiti but there were short excerpts from Thoreau's books or something similar written on small stones with indelible ink (think "Sharpies").

As noted above, the highlight of the day was seeing the crayfish, which we caught in a small ziplock bag, filmed, and then placed back in the water. The 10-year-old marine biologist told me it was probably a female crayfish because it was brown; she told me male crayfish were bright red. She referred to the crayfish we caught as a "she" throughout our visit.

I took out the map we had of Walden Pond. Arianna immediately noted that it was a contour map; it has contour lines on it, but the intervals were not marked in feet. We actually estimated that the intervals were 10 feet based on the small hill we stood on above the pond. Later, we checked the legend, and there it was: the contour intervals were 10 feet. We were impressed with ourselves. Arianna listed the reasons why reading a map was still important even though we now had GPS devices.

We looked the waves on the pond, and I mentioned waves and atoms. She then mentioned "particles" and we used the opportunity to discuss the debate about atomic particles and their wave-particle properties. After years of reading about quantum mechanics, I finally understood what physicists were saying when they talked of the "collapse" of the wave function. Arianna told me that when the ripple of the wave finally fades away, a particle is left. Okay. Pretty good. Like the small stone we skipped on the pond.

Sitting down to enjoy a small picnic, she became quite upset when she noted ants crawling on her tennis shoes. I wondered how she could become a marine biologist if ants bothered her. She reminded me that there are no ants in the ocean. Okay. She says ants bother her more than spiders, and spiders bother her a lot. Sharks do not bother her.

It's sad to think we will probably never see Walden Pond again.

Arianna's Crayfish

Global Warming Has "Paused" For Fifteen (15) Years; Emissions Have Soared

The Energy Tribune is reporting:
Now that the warming, or more accurately, the lack of it has reached 15 years the talk of a pause in global warming is beginning to gain traction.
Rich Lowery, editor of the National Review wrote “Over the past 15 years air temperatures at the earth’s surface have been flat while greenhouse gas emissions have continued to soar. The world added roughly 100 billions tons of carbon (dioxide) to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2012. That’s about a quarter of all CO2 put there by humans since 1750, yet no more warming."
Memo to self: send the President a campaign check for a gazillion dollars stapled to this story.

Statoil Comes Up Dry

Bloomberg is reporting:
Statoil ASA, Norway’s largest oil company, said it sees limited potential for raised estimates in the lower levels of its giant Johan Sverdrup discovery after drilling a dry well.
A sidetrack well failed to find oil at the Cliffhanger South area as well as in a secondary target in the “granitic basement,” the Stavanger-based company said today in a statement on its website.
“The core samples from this section contained oil shows, but were confirmed to be non-producible,” Statoil said. “The findings reduce the possibility for upside potential in the basement section in the Johan Sverdrup area.” 
Oh, well. 

Thursday Morning News And Links; RBN Energy Talks About Risk Of A CBR Bust

Active rigs: 188 (up one from yesterday; had been ad 187 for quite some time; range is expected to be between 190 and 210 later this summer)

Wells coming off the confidential list have been posted.

RBN Energy: last train to Bakkenville?
Narrowing price differentials between inland crudes tied to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and coastal crudes tied to Brent are resulting in a move away from rail shipments and back towards pipelines by producers in North Dakota. The switch away from rail is already having an impact on the lease rates for rail tank cars. Which could call into question the huge backlog of orders for new tank cars. Today we ponder the possibility of a bust in crude-by-rail shipments.
A significant move away from crude-by-rail transportation back onto pipelines – and we believe that there are signs that it is already happening – will likely have some unpleasant consequences for the rail industry and crude shippers using rail. Those with long memories in the rail business have been conscious throughout the recent boom in crude-by-rail of the bust in the ethanol-by-rail tank car market in 2008. That bust followed a boom in ethanol-by-rail movements after Energy Policy Act regulations in 2005 mandated increased ethanol blending into gasoline and diesel.
Since ethanol cannot be carried by pipeline after it has been blended with gasoline (because it attracts water), it is shipped by rail to final blending terminals. The sudden demand for ethanol led to a boom in rail tank car lease rates and a boom in tank car manufacture. When ethanol demand leveled off as US consumers used less gasoline in the recession, the ethanol-by-rail boom turned to bust in 2008 and lease rates for tank cars fell through the floor. [See also, Reuters, June 14, 2013: surge in CBR slows down as WTI/Brent narrows.]
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Say 50 million barrels were liquidated over the second half of the year, which would simply bring U.S. inventories down to around their five-year average. That would amount to almost 274,000 barrels a day. To put that in perspective, it equates to about a third of the IEA's expectation for global oil-demand growth this year. 
The past few weeks have seen yields rise globally as bond investors raise their expectations of the Fed taking its foot off the gas. Oil investors won't be immune. 
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