Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Investment Trends, The Bakken, 1Q13, Part V -- Filloon

Part V. This is how another excellent analysis begins:
Past articles in this series show where the Bakken is headed in 2013 and beyond. 
Operators have done a great job, as they have developed pad drilling, zipper fracs, and pressure pumping techniques that not only have improved EURs, but also reduced costs. Companies have turned ideas into reality, and this is only the beginning. 
Operators are getting more proficient, as the first quarter was spent drilling and not completing wells
This is building an inventory, and now that the weather is nice we should see a large number of pad completions turned to sales in the third quarter. 
Most operators are using two mile thirty stage laterals with large amounts of sand and ceramic tails. Better results are being seen from companies using more water and proppant. As the source rock is better stimulated, it will take more of both to fill in the fractures and keep crude flowing to the well bore. In my [previous] article, I covered EOG Resources (EOG). Its comment about Bakken rate of return could prove to be a turning point for this play. EOG is seeing returns in its Bakken wells that rival the Eagle Ford. These are triple digit returns, and more importantly show us that EOG's technologies and not geography are the reason for its outperformance.

From earlier posts, Parts I - IV of this series. Part IV.
Well costs continue to head lower. Most operators are reporting well costs decreasing 20% to 30% year-over-year. The unusually late winter in North Dakota forced some to put off completion work until the second quarter and just focus on getting wells drilled.
This is much more convenient now that pads production looks to increase exponentially over 2012. Companies like Kodiak put its mobile rigs to work punching holes. Since there was little to no completion crews to worry about, Kodiak didn't have to worry about time frames and how that would affect fraccing. Once the drilling is completed, the completion crew will zipper frac the wells. This can decrease times by a third. This coupled with lower oil service costs across the board, increase rates of return to levels that are much more economic.
Drilling in the first quarter threw analyst projections off as costs were higher as more drilling work got done, but very few wells were put to sales. I am expecting some very big top and bottom line numbers in the third quarter of this year.
An incredible amount of information in this post, again, as usual.

From an earlier post:

Part I and Part II were linked here.

Part III:
The first quarter has turned out to be much better than expected in the Bakken. Most operators spent time drilling from pads, which was a good thing as the winter lasted longer with more snow than originally expected. Pad drilling requires that all the wells be drilled before completion work begins. Batch drilling saves time and money.
Zipper fracs allow multiple wells to be fracced at the same time, which also lowers costs. The larger percentage of drilling vs. completion work means less production began in the first quarter. This did lower revenues, but more importantly, is the beginning of a new dynamic in the Bakken and at other basins in the United States.
Completing multiple wells with in a short time frame means production will be very high at those times. This means some quarters will have high revenues and EPS while others could be very low. This lumpy production will provide buying opportunities in the first and second quarters of the year. In parts one and two of this series, I discussed how the Bakken operators continue to benefit. Part 3 also touches on these points, but more importantly, starts with Oasis, which blew the doors off estimates.
Cost of wells is well below $10 million. 

Huge amount of information regarding Oasis.

With regard to COP:
Now the Eagle Ford, Permian, and Bakken have higher margins than the average of all of Conoco's production combined. This shows the economics of shale liquids are very good. Conoco's WTI/Bakken differentials are minus $5, and the Eagle Ford is plus $5. Even with well cost improvements in the Bakken, the Eagle Ford continues to be a better overall play.
Costs for OXY USA wells has come down significantly:
Occidental is realizing improved well costs throughout all of its U.S. acreage. From 2012 to 2013, the Williston Basin has seen a 32% decrease. This was the best percentage of all U.S. plays for Occidental. Its drilling program is now planned months in advance. This not only decreases costs associated with downtime, but it has been able to decrease the number of hours needed to complete the wells. It has decreased the number of strings of casing. It has switched its cemented liners for slotted liners. Occidental is optimizing water usage, by using flow back-end or produced water on completions. Stimulation contracted costs are also headed lower. Four months ago, Occidental Bakken well costs averaged $10 million. Today the average is $8.2 million with a goal of $7.5 million. In 2013, it will run 6 to 7 rigs.

Bakken Is Now $6/Bbl Cheaper Than WTI -- Due To "Over-Supply" In The Bakken; Widest Discount So Far This Year

Bloomberg is reporting:
Bakken crude weakened to the lowest level this year against U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate with the number of wells and the amount of production in the North Dakota shale formation at record highs.
Wells drilled in the Bakken grew to 562 from 556 in the first quarter, according to data from Bloomberg Industries. Monthly production also set a record in March, increasing 0.5 percent to 718,791 barrels a day, the state Industrial Commission said May 15.
“What you’re really starting to see is the advent of pad drilling,” said Christian O’Neill, an energy analyst in New York with Bloomberg Industries. “The companies have more time within these plays, they’re getting more and more efficient and their recovery rates are also steadily rising.”
Bakken fell $1 a barrel to $6 below WTI at 2:05 p.m. New York time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the lowest level since Nov. 16.
One 30-second data point: 550 wells/quarter = 2,200 wells/annum.

It should be noted that:
  • the first quarter is the most difficult quarter to drill/complete a well due to weather
  • a lot of drilled wells are waiting to be fracked
It should be noted that, a lot of wells are waiting to be fracked due to
  • winter weather
  • pad drilling (they often won't frack until the last well on a pad reaches total depth)
For these reasons, Mike Filloon recently commented:
Drilling in the first quarter threw analyst projections off as costs were higher as more drilling work got done, but very few wells were put to sales. I am expecting some very big top and bottom line numbers in the third quarter of this year. This will see the bulk of pad drilling production, and this will be very difficult to model given the large number of completed wells. Differentials could be the biggest story.

OPEC Disbands Its Production Quota Monitoring Committee; Peak Oil? What Peak Oil -- Iraq On Track To More Than Double Its Production By 2020 (To More Than 6 Million BOPD)

Rigzone is reporting that OPEC will disband its committee that monitors production compliance. That in itself is news, but in addition, there are some very interesting statistics that seem about as accurate as any statistics that pertain to OPEC:
By 2020, Iraq's oil output is on track to more than double to 6.1 million barrels a day, according to data from the International Energy Agency. At the same time, demand for OPEC's oil is expected to diminish as production from the U.S. and Canada increases by a fifth to 11.9 million barrels a day by 2018, compared with this year, the IEA said.

From just over 30 million barrels a day last year, demand for OPEC crude is expected to fall to 29.2 million barrels a day by 2015, the IEA said. But OPEC's production capacity will rise from 35 million barrels a day last year to 36.4 million barrels a day by 2015, it said.

The implication of this is, in order to prevent an oversupply, OPEC will have to withhold an additional 2.3 million barrels a day of oil from the market by 2015.

That's because the spare capacity OPEC withheld from the market totaled 4.9 million barrels a day in 2012, and will rise to 7.2 million barrels a day by 2015, the IEA said.
The unofficial OPEC production quota is 30 million bopd. Again, according to the linked article:
The decision to axe the committee comes at a time when OPEC member countries no longer have individual production quotas. Instead, since December 2011, OPEC has had a collective production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day, although the group's output has consistently remained above that level. 

Highlights of CVX's 2013 Annual Stockholder Meeting

Rigzone is reporting:
Watson discussed Chevron's strong 2012 financial and operational performance, with earnings exceeding $26 billion and return on capital employed (ROCE) approaching 19 percent. In 2012, the company marked its 25th consecutive year of annual dividend payment increases, which included last year's annual dividend increase of 13.6 percent. Chevron announced another quarterly dividend increase of 11.1 percent in April 2013. Watson also said that for the fourth consecutive year, Chevron led its peers in five-year total stockholder return.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on something you read here or think you read here. 

Two New Fields In The Williston Basin, North Dakota: Alexandria And Sioux Trail Oil Fields

There appear to be two relatively new fields in the Williston Basin, North Dakota. They are in Divide County, northeast of Grenora, and each is about one township in size:
  • Alexandria: T161N-R100W (south of West Ambrose oil field)
  • Sioux Trail: T160N-R101W (east of Fertile Valley oil field)
There are a few producing wells in each of those two fields, and the fields are in the NDIC well search database.

However, neither field is identified on the GIS map server.

There are four well files in Sioux Trail: Hunt (2) and North Plains Energy (2).

There are six well files in Alexandria: Hunt (4) and SM Energy (2).

Interestingly, there are two townships in the immediate area, just to the west of Alexandria:
T161N-R101W and T161N-R102W are not yet designated as a field.

North Dakota Taxable Sales And Purchases Sets Record; "Billion" With A "B"

The Bismarck Tribune added this story to the earlier story (see below); numbers rounded:

Bismarck’s taxable sales and purchase were up 12 percent to $1.7 billion for 2012. Mandan’s were up 18 percent to $230 million.
Williston’s 2012 taxable sales and purchase surpassed Fargo’s by more than $600 million, Fong said: “That’s pretty remarkable.”
Minot is on the heels of catching Bismarck with $1.5 billion collected. Bismarck City Administrator Bill Wocken said the city is “pleased with the activity” in Bismarck, which was growing pre-oil boom and has continued since at an even higher rate.
The Dickinson Press is reporting:
North Dakota’s taxable sales and purchases climbed more than $5 billion, or 28.7 percent, from 2011 to 2012, according to an annual report released Wednesday.
The report, issued by the state tax department, found that during the fourth quarter of 2012 — October, November and December — North Dakota’s taxable sales and purchases were $6.74 billion, up 9.7 percent from $6.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011. The 2012 calendar year saw more than $25.29 billion, a 28.7 percent jump from $19.6 billion in 2011.
The four major population cities — Bismarck, Fargo, Grand Forks and Minot — reported growth for 2012 ranging from 9 percent in Fargo, a total of $2.64 billion, to 18.3 percent in Minot, $1.6 billion. These four cities alone reported taxable sales and purchases of $7.29 billion, an increase of $771 million over 2011, the report said.  
Unless I missed it, Williston was not mentioned in The Dickinson Press story, but Williston was mentioned in The Bismarck Tribune story:
The biggest growth is coming from western North Dakota's oil-producing region. Taxable sales and purchases in Williams County totaled $4.6 billion for the year, up more than 43 percent, data show.
The city of Williston, where the official population count is pegged at 26,697, had more taxable sales and purchases during the year than Fargo, North Dakota's biggest city with a population of more than 107,000. Williston, in the heart of the state's oil patch, recorded $3.51 billion in taxable sales and purchases during 2012, compared with Fargo's $2.6 billion.
  • Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks, and Minot combined: $7.3 billion
  • Williston: $3.5 billion

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Thursday; XTO, KOG With Some Huge Wells

  • 19755, 149, Whiting, Anderson Butte Federal 11-17TFH, North Elkhorn Ranch, t1/13; cum 8K 3/13;
  • 22086, 2,052, KOG, P. Thomas 153-98-5-3-2-1H3, Truax, t4/13; cum --
  • 23834, 3,458, XTO, Lundin 44X-11H, Siverston, t4/13; cum --
  • 23840, 2,079, XTO, Leiseth 24X-22F, North Tobacco Garden, t4/13; cum --
  • 24135, drl, Hess, LK-Little Chase Creek 147-97-2116H-2, Little Knife,
  • 24284, drl, CLR, Hawkinson 9-22H3, Oakdale,
  • 24502, 559, Petro-Hunt, State 150-104-3A-10-1H, Nelson Bridge, t2/13; cum 13K 4/13;

Random Update On Costs Of Mining Western Canadian Oil Sands Bitumen -- Costs Have Increased By As Much As 13% This Past Year -- And Keystone XL Not Yet Approved

Oil & Gas Journal is reporting:
The estimated cost of producing bitumen in Canada has increased by 6.3-13.2% in the past year, depending on the production method ....
Supply costs at the plant gate, CERI says in an annual report, are C$30.32/bbl for primary recovery, $47.57/bbl for steam-assisted gravity drainage, C$99.02/bbl for integrated mining and upgrading, and $68.30/bbl for mining alone.
Compared with CERI’s estimates last year, the costs are up 6.3% for SAGD, 10.9% for integrated mining, and 13.2% for stand-alone mining.
Meanwhile, costs are dropping in the Bakken to drill a well. 

Eleven (11) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA -- Fifteen (15) Producing Wells Completed -- XTO With Two Very Nice Wells

Active rigs: 183 (trending down, quickly)

Eleven (11) new permits --
  • Operators: OXY USA (4), EOG (2), North Plains (2), Legacy (2), Fidelity
  • Fields: Red Rock (Bottineau), Parshall (Mountrail), Sioux Trail (Divide), Cabernet (Dunn), Murphy Creek (Dunn), Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments: Nice to see OXY USA activity
Wells coming off confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Lots of activity today.

Fifteen (15) producing wells completed:
  • 23081, 1,293, Whiting, Sondrol 11-3H, Bully, t4/13; cum --
  • 23823, 920, Hess, EN-State D 154-93-2635H-2, Robinson Lake, t5/13; cum --
  • 23129, 943, Hess, SC-Norman 154-98-3130H-3, Truax, t5/13; cum --
  • 23571, 1,290, Hess, AN-Bohmbach 153-94-2734H-3, Antelope, t5/13; cum --
  • 24184, 1,726, Whiting, Sondrol 11-3-2H, Bully, t4/13; cum --
  • 23082, 438, Whiting, Sondrol 11-3TFH, Bully, t4/13; cum --
  • 20503, 560, XTO, Wood 21X-25B, Truax, t4/13; cum --
  • 20250, 1,944, XTO, Wayne 34X-34F, West Capa, t3/13; cum 9K 3/13;
  • 23469, 3,146, XTO, Lawlar 41-15SEH, North Tobacco Garden, t4/13; cum --
  • 22366, 1,336, Hess, HA-Swenson 152-95-1819H-3, Hawkeye, t5/13; cum --
  • 23370, 597, CLR, Atlanta 3-6H, Baker, 4-section spacing, t4/13; cum --
  • 05579, 33, Enduro, Engebretson 8-9, Little Deep Creek, a Madison well; t5/75; cum 53K 3/13;
  • 22635, 1,114, Hess, HA-Swenson-152-95-1819H-5, Hawkeye, t5/13; cum --
  • 23833, 2,653, XTO, Lundin 44X-11C, Siverston, t4/13; cum --
  • 23815, 134, Corinthian, Corinthian Backman 4-35 1H, North Souris, a Spearfish well; t5/13; cum -  
Surge Energy cancelled eight (8) permits in Bottineau County (three Haram wells, and five Scandia wells). See discussion here; this probably has to do with Surge selling its North Dakota operations and nothing to do with potential of this area.

Random Tweet On Oil Demand Forecast; Brent Price Estimate Lowered

Merrill Lynch cuts oil demand growth forecast for 2013 by 150,000 bopd; lowers Brent estimate for 2H13 by $8/bbl to $103/bbl.

US Has Abandoned Plans To Import Natural Gas

Platts is reporting:
If you’ve followed the LNG export fight just a little, you’ve probably heard that, thanks to the shale gas revolution, the US has abandoned its plans to import gas from foreign markets and is now looking to aggressively export it. Ample domestic gas supplies and low prices have pushed the US gas industry to seek foreign markets. The problem is that many of the most attractive markets, such as Japan and much of the European Union, do not have free trade agreements with the US. Shipping LNG to non-FTA countries, by law, requires special approval from DOE. So far, DOE has approved just two of the 20 applications to ship to non-FTA markets.
I wonder if Snopes or Jane Nielson will ever update their sites regarding the Bakken. 

Just How Bad Is It?

The questions are: Is attorney general above the law? Did he commit perjury? Will the president throw him under the bus? -- May 29, 2013.

The third question is the easiest to answer. 

I track the Obama scandal bucket here.

Just How Bad Was It?

It was the 2nd coldest March on record for the British Isles. The Motley Fool is reporting:
Imagine your energy bill increasing by 50% in one day. Pretty scary, eh?
Back in March, this is exactly what happened... in England. In a single day, natural gas prices spiked by 50% there, all because of a failed water pump. As much as this could be considered a fluke accident, there were several factors that led to this single, minute event causing the worlds eighth largest natural gas market to its knees. Let's take a look at what happened, how the U.S. can prevent this from happening at home, and what it will mean for U.S. gas companies. 
March of 2013 was the second coldest March ever recorded in the U.K. The unusually cold weather that late in the season led to higher than normal gas consumption. With so much in use and a rather fixed supply, U.K. gas supplies were dwindling. On March 22, a water pump failed and halted deliveries from the UK-Belguim Interconnector, a pipe that delivered about 40 million cubic meters of gas to Great Britain. The shutdown of this gas pipe was simply the straw that broke the camel's back. Gas supplies were so short that storage was down to less than two days' worth of supply, which ultimately led gas prices to surge 50% within hours of trading on the London exchanges.
Of interest, I posted this yesterday (how prescient, smile):

Peak Oil: some interesting data points from an article at The Oil Drum:

  • how close did the British come to running out of natural gas this past winter: 6 hours (see comments at the linked article)

More Drilling Forecast For Bowman County; Red River Formation; DNR EOR EIEIO

KFYR is reporting:
The oil activity will be moving farther south in the coming years. Lynn Helms with the Department of Mineral Resources says he expects more oil drilling in Bowman County in the Red River formation.
With regard to environmental concerns:
"Denbury Resources likely will be drilling several hundred wells in Bowman County. And I think we need to keep that fact in mind. As we move forward with this, as to how we want to approach drilling in Bowman County," Helms said.

For Investors Only: KOG, STO, CLR On SeekingAlpha

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you read here.

Another SA article on the darling of Wall Street.

News Story For The Week: Hyatt House Minot Opens -- Outstanding -- North Dakota's First Hyatt-Branded Hotel --

From the press release:

Hyatt Hotels Corporation and Interstate Hotels & Resorts today announce the opening of HYATT house Minot, North Dakota’s first Hyatt-branded hotel.
On top of Minot’s North Hill, HYATT house Minot overlooks the Magic City and offers the conveniences of hotel living with the comforts of home. Located near the Bakken Formation, three miles away from Minot State University, two miles from Minot International Airport and nearby to local shopping, HYATT house Minot is a refreshing choice for business and leisure travelers alike.
“We are proud to open the very first Hyatt-branded hotel in North Dakota, right in the heart of the Magic City,” said David Wick, general manager, HYATT house Minot. “We look forward to welcoming guests with the authentic hospitality for which Hyatt and HYATT house are known.”

Wednesday Morning News And Links

WSJ Links

Section D (Personal Journal):
Section C (Money & Investing):
Section B (Marketplace):
Section A:
  • Wyoming makes power play. Developers want Wyoming to be California's energy supplier.
  • A few states want more executions: Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas. I hope I never have a dog in this fight. Smile. Incidentally, talking through the debate over the possibility for a death sentence for that young woman who killed her boyfriend, I've come to the conclusion that the death penalty in this particular case is not appropriate. The arguments, in this case, for the death penalty don't stand up.

Europe Burning US Wood To Go Green -- I Can't Make This Stuff Up -- The Headline Story Of The Year -- A New Tag: Idiocy

The Wall Street Journal is reporting.

Clear-cutting forests in North Carolina to provide wood for Europe to burn. Am I missing something here?
WINDSOR, N.C.—Loggers here are clear-cutting a wetland forest with decades-old trees.
Behind the move: an environmental push.
The push isn't in North Carolina but in Europe, where governments are trying to reduce fossil-fuel use and carbon-dioxide emissions. Under pressure, some of the Continent's coal-burning power plants are switching to wood.
But Europe doesn't have enough forests to chop for fuel, and in those it does have, many restrictions apply. So Europe's power plants are devouring wood from the U.S., where forests are bigger and restrictions fewer.
This dynamic is bringing jobs to some American communities hard hit by mill closures. It is also upsetting conservationists, who say cutting forests for power is hardly an environmental plus.
I used to joke that Europe would soon be burning trees; I was joking. Not a joke.

I finally found something worse than wind turbines: burning decades-old forests for fuel. When there's a glut of coal. And global warming quit 17 years ago. But I have no dog in this fight. Paraphrasing Ronald Reagan, when you've seen one forest, you've seen them all, and if this is what environmentalists want -- clear-cutting decades-old forests in North Carolina -- well, good for them. Confirms the idiocy.

And more from the article:
If Europe's goal is to reduce carbon emissions, "it doesn't make any sense to cut down the trees that are sequestering carbon," said Debbie Hammel, a resource specialist at the Natural Resources Defense Council.
Well, duh.

Activist environmentalists: slept through their biology classes, or never got past 8th grade. Idiots.

US Diesel Exports Heading To The Mediterranean On Demand

Another data point.

Just the other day there was an interesting story about increased US gasoline exports.

Now, today, Platts is reporting:US-produced diesel seen heading to Mediterranean on demand boost.
Ultra low sulfur diesel produced in American refineries will soon make its way to the Mediterranean basin to offset lower production in the region and higher demand from farmers and drivers, traders said Tuesday.

A total of 1.2 million mt of gasoil and diesel has been fixed by traders between the US and Europe for June, they said.

While the diesel was initially expected to make its way to the UK, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub, France or Germany -- the traditional import locations for the fuel in Europe -- traders said some of it may go the Mediterranean instead.

Countries in the West Mediterranean, such as Portugal, Spain, the south of France or even Italy, are seen as more likely outlets than Turkey, for which shipping will be more expensive.

Bakken Producers Are Switching From Rail Back To Pipelines -- RBN Energy


May 30, 2013: RBN Energy provides a correction to their story below:
Yesterday in our blog titled “To the Pipelines, Robin” we examined Genscape data that showed lower volumes moving via out of the Bakken and higher volumes moving via pipe.  One of the terminals in the data table was Inergy’s Colt terminal, which showed a decline this month versus last.  We got an email from our good friends at Inergy saying that in fact April volumes at Colt were in excess of the reported volumes and more importantly their May actual volumes increased 12% versus April.  Genscape uses remote cameras to record the goings and comings of rail cars at these terminals.  It turns out that there was a camera malfunction for a week, so the table should have reflected that fact.  We apologize for the error.
Original Post

Active rigs: 186 (steady)

RBN Energy: due to narrowing spread, Bakken shippers returning to pipelines.
Genscape is a provider of all kinds of energy information.  One of their products provides data that shows dynamically what is happening on the ground in North Dakota. The table below shows the volume of crude loaded onto trains in North Dakota at 12 terminals that Genscape monitor remotely around the clock. The Genscape table provides a daily tally of loading data at each terminal as well as monthly averages. The final column in the table shows that loadings at these terminals are mostly down during May versus April (purple oval on the table).
Three rail loading terminals at Fryburg (Bakkenlink), Epping (Inergy COLT) and Van Hook (Plains) are loading 30 percent less so far in May 2013 than they did in April. The Musket terminal at Dore is loading 25 percent less and the Global terminal at Stampede 24 percent less. Although the volume shipped at some terminals such as EOG Stanley, Hess Tioga and Lario Dickinson  are basically flat, the general trend would appear to be significant.
Several story lines at the linked article.

A Note To The Granddaughters

My red-eye from Dallas to Boston went well, arriving at Logan oh-dark-thirty; on the Silver Line and then the Red Line to Harvard Square where I am back at Starbucks before heading to the house.  This will probably be the last time I ever see Boston, and so I need to make every moment count. And Starbucks at Harvard Square is a good place to start.

While at the Desert Museum I picked up a copy of John Steinbeck's Sea of Cortez. I have no idea why a book on marine biology would be found at a desert museum but there it was. I'm glad it was. It's really quite a good read. I don't recall reading John Steinbeck in high school, but I most assuredly did -- East of Eden or Grapes of Wrath, but I certainly don't recall his writing style. It is remarkably enjoyable. The humor of Mark Twain with a bit more subtlety, less sarcasm, and less verbosity. At least that's my take. It's a short book and I read about half of it on the overnight flight. It's another book one could finish in one setting, but one wants it to last longer.

So, I will finish it over the next couple of days.

Boston is overcast, cool, misty to drizzling. Dallas, when I left, was dark, warm, and dry. Maybe slightly humid. I'm going to miss Boston a lot, but I'm probably not going to miss the weather. Dallas seems to be a nice balance between San Antonio (very hot, humid) and Boston.

After an absence of some time, walking through Harvard Square I sense the presence of the first love of my life. She passed away a few years ago; she taught me the ways of Boston.

It will be good to see the granddaughters again.


Timely article in today's WSJ: jet lag --- easier to adjust when traveling west to east. Probably true, but a two-hour time change, Dallas to Boston, won't be a problem.

In the military, six-hour time changes were not uncommon. I can't remember what we thought then, which was was easier to adjust. I never considered it an issue. If you're drinking from a fire hose, there's not much time to check the clock.