Monday, May 20, 2013

Again, A Lot Of Folks Could Use Our Help

Link to Salvation Army.

Live streaming here is just incredibly sad.

KFOR-TV meteorologist Mike Morgan called this “the worst tornado damage in the history of the world.”  Could be 24 elementary children died at the school where folks thought they would be safe.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Tuesday; EOG With Another Huge Wayzetta Well; 3/7 Wells To DRL Status;

  • 22316, 938, Zenergy, Ledahl 28-33H, Rosebud, t2/13; cum 21K 3/12;
  • 22704, 926, EOG, Wayzetta 149-1509H, Parshall, t1/13; cum 40K 3/13; 53 stages; 11 million lbs sand;  spacing - ICO;  spacing is interesting to note; the lateral was supposed to reach section 9 based on name of well, sited in section 15, going through section 10, and ending in 9. The operator requested 1920-acre (3-section spacing). The file report says the lateral reached the north east corner of section 9, but the GIS map server shows only through section 10 for now. (For newbies: this is interesting, because Parshall oil field was originally all 640-acre spacing by EOG.) TD: 20,422 feet.
  • 23421, 1,011, EOG, Garden Coulee 1-1410H, Painted Woods, 49 stages; 10 million lbs sand; 960-acre spacing (along Montana state line where sections narrow significantly); t12/12; cum 54K 3/13;
  • 23429, 643, CLR, Missoula 5-21H, Camp, 30 stages; 2.7 million lbs ceramic/sand, t3/13; cum 1K 3/13;
  • 24044, drl, SM Energy, Didrick 4-27HA, Siverston, no production data,
  • 24104, drl, XTO Energy, Stenberg 14-10SWH, North Tobacco Garden, no production data,
  • 24384, drl, XTO Energy, CArter 14X-12H, Grinnell,

22316, see above, Zenergy, Ledahl 28-33H, Rosebud:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

22704, see above, EOG, Wayzetta 149-1509H, Parshall:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

23421, see above, EOG, Garden Coulee 1-1410H, Painted Woods:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Video Search: Timeline From Pad Preparation To First Royalties

A reader is looking for a video timeline of the oil patch process, from pad preparation to first royalties.

I've done a quick search, unable to find anything.

If anyone can locate that video, please let us know.

Thank you.


Timeline from applying for permit to first royalty. See comment below. I moved that information up here for easier searching. I also provided a link to this timeline at "FAQ" -- question #28.

An overall average would go something like this:
  • "Permit to drill" to building of drill pad: 1 to 3 months. 
  • build the site: 2 - 2 weeks
  • rig arrives on site: 1 - 2 months later
  • time to reach total depth: 1 month for each well on site
  • wait for fracking after last well is drilled: 4 - 6 weeks
  • each well to be fracked: 5 - 10 days
  • production begins
  • first royalty check: 100 - 150 days after production begins
  • first royalty check delays due to title issues
Total: assume up to a year. Anything shorter than that -- wonderful.

On multi-well pads, it is my understanding that they won't frack the wells until the last well is drilled. I also see "boiler-plate" requests to delay drilling 90 days early in the process.

News All Afternoon Has Been On The Horrific Tornado Ripping Through Oklahoma City Area -- Visit Salvation Army Web Page To Help

Link to Salvation Army.

Live streaming here is just incredibly sad.

KFOR-TV meteorologist Mike Morgan called this “the worst tornado damage in the history of the world.”  Could be 24 elementary children died at the school where folks thought they would be safe.

Seven (7) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

Active rigs: 190 (steady)

Seven (7) new permits --
  • Operators: QEP (3), BR (2), Zenergy, Oasis
  • Fields: Cow Creek (Williams), Charlson (McKenzie), Helis Grail (McKenzie), Foreman Butte (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

What An Incredible Day! BBC Reports That Global Warming Stopped Back in 1998! 1998 -- That Was 15 Years Ago. I Can't Make This Stuff Up


July 15, 2013: but what happens if the earth begins to cool?

May 21, 2013: Germans agree - warming has stopped -- "baffled German government concedes! Global warming has stopped."
“In the years leading up to the year 2000, the temperature curve rose very sharply. But since then it isn’t rising so, in fact it’s not rising at all, the curve. The average temperature has stagnated at a very high level – we sort of have a plateau, and that during a time when CO2 emissions have risen considerably.”
The "green movement" now refers to this as a short-term fluctuation.

Later, 7:11 pm: a reader questioned my interpretation that global warming "stopped" in 1998. The BBC"Since 1998, there has been an unexplained "standstill" in the heating of the Earth's atmosphere." See link below. I can't speak for other areas of the country, but in Texas, "standstill" and "stopped" are synonyms. At this website, it's even more dramatic: "dead stop."

Original Post

Instead of several individual posts, many links: "this is my world."

1. From SeekingAlpha: double up on these companies as Bakken estimates double. I have not read the article. I really don't care about the specifics. Long term followers know the potential. I post it for the archives.

2. From The Daily Ticker, gold and silver as inflation fears fail to live up to hype. That's the headline. Who cares? There's a bigger story.

3. I can't find it now, but there was an article over the weekend suggesting that the oil companies have not participated in the bull market so far this year. If I find it, I will link it.

4. When does 2 + 3 = 4? When one reads data point #2 and #3 above, one comes to #4. Where do gold and silver traders move when they tire of metals? Yup, that's right. Oil.

5. BBC is reporting: Climate slowdown means extreme rates of warming 'not as likely.' I can't make this stuff up. [I honestly don't know what "climate slowdown" means. I never considered the climate speeding up or slowing down. The headline writer just couldn't bring herself to write: global warming ended 15 years ago.]
Scientists say the recent downturn in the rate of global warming will lead to lower temperature rises in the short-term
Since 1998, there has been an unexplained "standstill" in the heating of the Earth's atmosphere. Writing in Nature Geoscience, the researchers say this will reduce predicted warming in the coming decades. But long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly. 
"The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before. --  Dr Alexander Otto University of Oxford.
The slowdown in the expected rate of global warming has been studied for several years now. Earlier this year, the UK Met Office lowered their five-year temperature forecast.
But global warming advocates still insist that global temperatures will increase by, oh, maybe, possibly, perhaps, as much as, say two, okay, maybe one degree. But that's Celsius. And one degree Celsius is almost two degrees Fahrenheit. So, if we measure global temperature in Fahrenheit degrees, the global temperature will rise almost twice as fast as if we measured global temperature in Celsius degrees. But certainly this is great news: "The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before."

6. By the way, did you catch the BIG story line in paragraph #5 above? The scientists tell us that global warming stopped in 1998. But they don't tell us when global warming will start up again. That's because they don't know. I'm not even sure they all agree that global warming will even start up again. They don't know why it stopped, so why would they know it's going to start again? What if Ms Intelligent Designer who recently visited Stellar Central #2561-F (that would be the sector responsible for this corner of the universe) simply turned down the thermostat and plans to leave it there?

7. Do the majors need $120 oil to make money? Nope. From Motley Fool:
At the same time, there are a number of companies with operations that can be profitable without $120 oil. ExxonMobil posted average 2012 per-barrel production costs of $13.02 for total per-barrel oil equivalent, $23.81 for bitumen and $47.45 for synthetic oil. These low production costs and the integration of ExxonMobil's upstream and downstream operations allows it to provide a strong return on investment (ROI) of 32.9%.
8. Yahoo!In-Play: I don't invest in NOV, never have, never will, but this sounds like good news for some, a doubling of the dividend:
Natl Oilwell Varco Board of Directors has approved an increase in the regular quarterly cash dividend to $0.26 per share of common stock from $0.13 per share of common stock : Co announced that its Board of Directors has approved an increase in the regular quarterly cash dividend to $0.26 per share of common stock from $0.13 per share of common stock, payable on June 28, 2013 to each stockholder of record on June 14, 2013. The Company has increased its quarterly cash dividend every year since the Company started paying cash dividends. 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you read here.

Iwo Jima

Readers send me a fair amount of material but very little about specific information from the Bakken. Information in the oil patch is very, very confidential, and held very, very close to the chest. To the best of my knowledge, I never publish confidential information either.

I seldom post links sent to me that don't have anything to do with the oil patch, global warming, or politics, but every once in awhile I get something that just seems too important or too interesting not to post.

Don just sent me one such link: the story and photographs surrounding one of the most famous photographs ever taken, that of the flag raising at Iwo Jim during WWII.

It's an incredible story and one worth reading (and reading again, if you think you already know the story).

Looking at the photograph again, I wondered why this particular photo is "so perfect." And then it struck me (and it was not mentioned in the article, as far I know -- I read it quickly).  This is why the photograph of the flag raising at Iwo Jima is "so perfect." In addition to absolutely everything else, this is the most important element: no faces are seen. They are anonymous. They represent every serviceman and servicewoman serving in the US military in WWII.

Had even one face, even if just a profile had been photographed, the picture would not have been as powerful.

Much as the tomb of the unknown soldier, of whose identity we do not know, the photograph alone does not allow us to identify those who raised the flag at that island. It is impossible for me to comprehend this one statistic:
It was the costliest battle in Marine Corps history. Its toll of 6,821 Americans dead, 5,931 of them Marines, accounted for nearly one-third of all Marine Corps losses in all of World War II.
The island is 8 square miles in size. According to the NDIC GIS map server, the city of Williston is four miles north-to-south and four miles east-to-west: 16 square miles. 

That Was Easy. Dow Turns Green. Berkshire Hits A New High.

Production Numbers For The Marathon Don Well

Elsewhere an enquiring mind is asking for production numbers for the Marathon Don well.

That data was provided earlier this morning.

It's a very, very nice well.
  • 23563, 1,398, Marathon, Don 34-31TFH, Big Bend, t2/13; cum 31K 3/13:
NDIC File No: 23563     API No: 33-061-02222-00-00     CTB No: 123563
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 2/22/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SWSE 31-151-92     Footages: 478 FSL 2158 FEL     Latitude: 47.848806     Longitude: -102.501478
Current Well Name: DON 34-31TFH
Elevation(s): 2053 KB   2028 GR   2083 GL     Total Depth: 20545     Field: BIG BEND
Spud Date(s):  11/18/2012
Casing String(s): 9.625" 1989'   7" 10945'  
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10945-20545     Comp: 2/22/2013     Status: F     Date: 2/24/2013     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 31054     Cum MCF Gas: 15774     Cum Water: 7605
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 2/24/2013     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1398     IP MCF: 1347     IP Water: 1717
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

TrainWreck: Rembrance Of Things Past -- Instant Karma

Citing Proust's Remembrance of Things Past is a stretch, and only a few will probably get the connection. It has to do with the development of the 401(c) retirement plan.

Probably an even better analogy is the old joke about the boy who finds his bedroom full of horse manure, and begins digging furiously: "With all this horse manure, there has to be a horse here somewhere."

It appears some smart folks have been scouring the ObamaCare law and have discovered that they can meet the requirements by providing minimum of healthcare coverage. When you read the details, it all makes sense. [Page A1, WSJ.]

[By the way, when a federal bill is several pages thick, the opportunity to find loopholes and errors is huge.]

East Coast healthcare policy geeks were always excited with preventive health care, so it makes sense. By providing mostly preventive health care coverage (and NO hospital coverage), employers can meet the requirements of the law AND not go broke in the process.

There will be a lot of legal wrangling and employers will nibble away at the benefits, probably pushing the envelope to the point where plans will be be decided by courts. The problem, of course, is that it will take years for these cases to be settled in court. In the meantime, employers will provide minimum healthcare coverage and meet the requirements.


Chameleon ...

Karma Chameleon, Culture Club

CBR Is Here To Stay: Pipeline And Shale Are Not Compatible Unless There Is The Rail Option

For those of you who haven't read the sixteenth and last in the 2013 series on crude-by-rail provided by RBN Energy, you need to do so. Absolutely fascinating. Some takeaways:

  • pipelines: billions of dollars
  • CBR terminals: millions of dollars
Investment return:
  • 20% on a $50 million investment
  • payback in 5 years
  • scalable
  • flexible
  • activist environmentalists apparently are rail buffs, apparently they love Burlington Northern, Canadian Pacific, and Union Pacific (these are the big winners)
From concept to design to permitting to operation:
  • measured in months, not years (let's see, are we in our 8th year with regard to the Keystone XL?)
  • exception: years in California due to permitting process
Most interesting: rail is particularly suitable to shale production = production volatility
  • initial production huge; tapers off quickly (hard on pipelines; perfect for scalable CBR)
  • pad drilling: huge initial production (can't get pipelines in fast enough for all the new pads)
  • new rigs more effective; increased production volatility; again, CBR better than pipelines
  • as sweet spots targeted, production volatility increases
RBN summary:
So the pipeline model and the shale crude model are not compatible unless you have a third transport option to take up the slack. That is where rail came into play. Originally as a band-aid to ship production until pipelines were built. Now that the rail network is set up however, the band-aid becomes part of the solution and no longer just a work around.
MDW summary:
  • not one downside to CBR for shale oil production
  • scalable, flexible
  • no losers
  • activist environmentalists love rail
  • once natural gas proves cost effective for locomotives, one more advantage
  • best thing that ever happened: Keystone XL killed
 Yup, CBR is here to stay:

Rock and Roll Is Here To Stay, Danny & The Juniors


This has nothing to do with the Bakken. It is political in nature. Ignore it. It will disappear shortly but will be linked at "The Journal."

It has been noted that not one Obama scandal was "broken" by mainstream media. The internet and conservative talk radio/television reported the stories first.  And my hunch is that the administration will "win" simply because the mainstream media will fail to report it -- just as the Afghanistan war has become the forgotten war. June 6, 2013.

The "S" in scandal is starting to look like the "S" in sleaze, especially with the news of May 30, 2013.

Some famous quotes. We've come a long way:
  • I cannot tell a lie. I chopped down that cherry tree.
  • I am not a crook.
  • I did not have sexual relations with that woman.
  • I'm the decider.
  • I am not Dick Cheney. 

The Obama Scandal Bucket

Swamped in controversies, President Obama and his slow-footed team are essentially telling the American public, “We’re not crooked. We’re just incompetent.
The IRS targeting conservatives, the Justice Department snooping at The Associated Press, the State Department injecting politics into Benghazi, the military covering up sexual assaults, and the Department of Veterans Affairs leaving heroes in health care limbo – each of these so-called scandals share two traits.
1. Lying. 2. Disconnected from the American public.
Actually: the administration is both crooked and incompetent.

Obama taps German chancellor's mobile phone, October 23, 2013.

FBI and NSA in cahoots. Covering for each other. And covering for President O'Bama.  Admit as much after a hot mic caught FBI and NSA spokesmen ready to celebrate a beer after a friendly Congressional hearing. June 19, 2013.

NSA admits that it did listen in on telephone conversations without warrants; it appears they also read e-mail without warrants. -- June 16, 2013

The president has directed that mosques in American are off limits to NSA spying, June 13, 2013.
James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, admits to lying under oath when testifying before Congress.
James Clapper has now admitted he gave the "least untruthful" [untruthful = lie] answer to a direct question in March about the extent of surveillance on US citizens.

The Commander-in-Chief Scandal

POTUS movements are compulsively logged; we know precisely where he was the night he slept through the 3:00 a.m. call. -- Won't say where he was on night of Benghazi debacle.
Key figures starting to admit mistakes

The First Amendment Scandal

Targeted Fox News reporter. Turns out Holder authorized the snooping. President Obama furious: has directed that Holder investigate Holder. -- May 23, 2013
The national security threat the White House wanted to stop? Fast and Furious in 2011. It looks like "Fast and Furious" was Obama's Watergate.
Attorney General Holder went "judge-shopping" to get subpoena. Holder starting to feel remorseful.  -- May 28, 2013
The questions are: Is attorney general above the law? Did he commit perjury? Will the president throw him under the bus? -- May 29, 2013

The 5th Amendment: List Of Those "Taking The Fifth"

The 16th Amendment Scandal

The "S" in IRS: scandal.
You really think the IRS scandal is being investigated? LOL. The FBI director doesn't even know who is leading that investigation. -- June 13, 2013
Obama's counsel was told of IRS weeks ago. -- WSJ
Big government loses control. -- WSJ, op-ed.
Former IRScandal commissioner: "I know nothing."
The stonewalling begins: a top IRScandal official "takes the fifth amendment."
The internal investigation was completed 6 months before the election. Everybody knew.
Lois "learn as I go along" Lerner takes the fifth amendment, "because I didn't do anything wrong."
Special prosecutor: inevitable. Lois "learn as I go along" Lerner replaced one day later; heads starting to roll; thrown under the bus.
Washington launches four separate investigations into the IRS. None will result in anything, but nice political theater.
Of all cabinet members, the IRS commissioner (not even a cabinet member), visited the White House the most.  -- May 30, 2013

HH$ Collusion

The "S" in Sebelius: Scandal
Seeking funding from a non-profit organization that she regulates
Enroll America is intended to serve as the private sector flagship for a massive public outreach campaign intended to get millions of uninsured Americans to sign up for subsidized insurance coverage through new online marketplaces, or exchanges, that will begin open enrollment on October 1.
The regulators now become the lobbyists. Sibelius now admits she lobbied the companies she was regulating, to support ObamaCare. -- NY Times, June 4, 2013.

Political EnemieScandal List

Gibson Guitar raid.

Presidential Lying

For years, denied spying on Americans. Now, he admits it was a "critical tool." NSA spying on Americans.

Hillary's Department of Sexual Assaults

CBS News is reporting ... a new scandal. June 10, 2013. I don't know about you, but I'm starting to get tired of this administration. 

Monday Morning News

A lone winner hits Powerball -- Florida supermarket -- $600 million or thereabouts.

Active rigs:189 (steady, at high end)

Wells coming off confidential list have been posted.

RBN Energy: the last of 16 articles on CBR. Exceptional article. I may do stand-alone post on this last article, if I remember, have time. CBR is here to stay; may, in fact, get bigger; may be preferred over pipelines; better return for investors. In fact, other than the fact pipelines make more sense (it would seem), rail, in fact, may be the better route to go. It's quite an interesting story. The activist environmentalists probably did more for the industry than they expected. It's a very interesting, and a very positive story. I see no losers in this story. I do see some big winners.

CBR: see this post, also, from yesterday -- 2012: the year of the rail car.

WSJ Links

Section R (Journal Report)
Section C (Money & Investing):
Section B (Marketplace):

Section A: