Sunday, April 28, 2013

Random Look At Two 9-Well Hess Pads in Robinson Lake; Potentially 18-Well Pads

 This started out as a 6-well pad, but three more wells have been added.

This started out as a 6-well pad, but three more wells have been added.

The original 6-well pad (the original post), 2560-acre spacing; this is the only 2560-acre spacing unit in the Robinson Lake. I assume there will eventually be overlapping 2560-acre spacing units in the rest of the Robinson Lake. Also, note how long ago the original Cvancara wells were put in -- back in late 2011, and they already had 2560-acre spacing units. The original wells are about 1.5 years old and already exceed 100,000 bbls total production:

  • 19899, 603, Hess, EN-Fretheim A-155-93-3334H-3, Robinson Lake, t4/12; cum 82K 2/13;
  • 19900, 1,037, Hess, EN-Cvancara A-155-93-3231H-3, Robinson Lake, t12/11; cum 129K 2/13;
  • 19901, 668, Hess, EN-Fretheim A-155-93-3334H-2, Robinson Lake, t11/11; cum 112K 2/13;
  • 19902, 1,132, Hess, EN-Cvancara A-155-93-3231H-2, Robinson Lake, t11/11; cum 151K 2/13;
  • 19903, 795, Hess, EN-Fretheim A-155-93-3334H-1, Robinson Lake, t11/11; cum 133K 2/13;
  • 19905, 1,341, Hess, EN-Cvancara A-155-93-3231H-1, Robinson Lake, t10/11; cum 199K 2/13;
Now, add three more:
  • 24868, drl, Hess, EN-Fretheim A 155-93-3334H-9, Robinson Lake,
  • 24869, 868, Hess, EN-Fretheim A 155-93-3334H-8, Robinson Lake, t8/13; cum 84K 6/14;
  • 24870, 662, Hess, EN-Fretheim A 155-93-3334H-7, Robinson Lake, t8/13; cum 74K 6/14;
Also, note: for the Fretheim wells, the shorthand is Fretheim-1; Fretheim-2; Fretheim-3; Fretheim-7; Fretheim-8; and, Fretheim-9; suggesting that #4, #5, and #6 are yet to be filled in (and they were; see below). Doing the same for the Cvancara wells, and one quickly has an 18-well pad. Lynn Helms, Director/NDIC, recently mentioned that we will be seeing 18-well pads very, very soon.

25788, 762, Hess, EN-Cvancara A-155-93-3334H-6, Robinson Lake, t4/14; cum 35K 6/14;
25787, 758, Hess, EN-Cvancara A-155-93-3334H-5, Robinson Lake, t4/14; cum 36K 6/14;
25786, 1,121, Hess, EN-Cvancara A-155-93-3334H-4, Robinson Lake, t4/14; cum 51K 6/14;
28576, conf, Hess, EN-Fretheim A-155-93-3334H-4, Robinson Lake,
28575, conf, Hess, EN-Fretheim A-155-93-3334H-5, Robinson Lake,
28574, conf, Hess, EN-Fretheim A-155-93-3334H-6, Robinson Lake, 


Likewise, this started out as a 6-well pad in Robinson Lake, but three more wells have been added. First, the original 6 wells:
  • 19074, 629, Hess, EN-Frandson-154-93-2116H-1; RL, Bkn, t12/10; cum 107K2/13;
  • 19075, 225, Hess, EN-Frandson-154-93-2116H-2; RL, Bkn, s8/10; t5/11; cum 91K2/13;
  • 19076, 1,325, Hess, EN-Frandson-154-93-2116H-3; RL, Bkn, s8/10; t8/11; cum 215K 2/13;
  • 19077, 717, Hess, EN-Trinity-154-93-2833H-1; RL, Bkn, s7/10; t2/11; cum 141K 2/13;
  • 19078, 941, Hess, EN-Trinity-154-93-2833H-2; RL, Bkn, s8/10; t7/11; cum 150K 2/13;
  • 19079, 1,125, Hess, EN-Trinity-154-93-2833H-3; RL, Bkn, s8/10; t8/11; cum 197K 2/13;
Now, these three wells have been added:
  • 25203, conf, Hess, EN-Trinity-154-93-2833H-4, Robinson Lake,
  • 25204, conf, Hess, EN-Trinity-154-93-2833H-5, Robinson Lake,
  • 25205, conf, Hess, EN-Trinity-154-93-2833H-6, Robinson Lake,
Unlike the first 9-well pad discussed above, which was on 2560-acre spacing, this 9-well pad is on1280-acre spacing.

Fisker Owners Unloading Cars At Huge Loss -- Well, At Least Trying To Unload Them

The LA Times is reporting:
In a week in which beleaguered Fisker Automotive failed to make a $10-million loan payment, owners are looking to unload their cars. In some cases, they are seeing some very low offers.
There were 48 listings for the high-end, hybrid electric Fisker Karma Eco-Chic and Eco-Sport cars on the Yahoo! auto sales pages.
That might not seem like a lot, but the new- and used-car research company Edmunds said there were only 947 new registrations of Fisker automobiles between January 2012 and February of this year.
Fisker Automotive hasn't sold a new car in nearly a year. On Wednesday, its executives were grilled on Capitol Hill on whether the company had used political influence to finance a fatally flawed business plan.
Fisker had been scheduled to start to pay down about $192 million it had borrowed under the Energy Department's Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program. It also laid off most of its workers this month.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Over The Weekend and Monday; Fidelity Will Have A Huge Well; Liberty Resources Has A Big Well; OXY Has Another OXY Well; G3 Operating With A Huge Well; Whiting With A Huge Madison Well

Initial production numbers for wells coming off the confidential list last Thursday and Friday have been posted.

Coming off the list over the weekend, and Monday:

Monday, April 29, 2013:
  • 23222, drl, Fidelity, Pavel 14-23H, Zenith,
  • 23224, 2,473, KOG, Moccasin Creek 4-3-23-4H, Moccasin Creek, t2/13; cum 17K 2/13;
  • 23231, 116, Baytex, Joyce 4-9-160-98H 1BP, Skabo, t12/12; cum 5K 2/13;
  • 23479, 1,310, Fidelity, Sundts 23-14-15H, Stanley, 4-sec spacing, t10/12; cum 69K 3/13;
  • 23639, 1,482, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HB, Spotted Horn, t3/13; cum --
  • 24040, drl, SM Energy, Broderson 2-27H, Siverston,
Sunday, April 28, 2013:
  • 20880, 814, G3 Operating, Fort Berthold 148-94-36D-25-2H, McGregory Buttes, t2/13; cum 5K 2/13;
  • 23201, 1,029, Liberty Resources, Lassey 152-103-27-34-1H, Glass Bluff, t11/12; cum 59K 2/13;
Saturday, April 27, 2013:
  • 21921, 97, Legacy, Legacy Etal Berge 5-7H, Red Rock, Spearfish, t12/12; cum 9K 2/13;
  • 23129, drl, Hess, SC-Norman 154-98-3130H-3, Truax, no production data,
  • 23247, 401, Whiting, BSMU 1806, Big Stick, Madison, t1/13; cum 16K 2/13;
  • 23424, 157, OXY USA, Sivak 1-29-28H-143-98, Hungry Man Butte, t10/12; cum 6K 2/13;
  • 23550, 965, G3 Operating, Fort Berthold 152-94-14C-11-2H, Antelope, t1/13; cum 32K 2/13;
  • 23597, 867, G3 Operating, Berg 1-30-31H, Good Luck, t2/13; cum 7K 2/13;
  • 23794, drl, KOG, Smokey 3-30-18-2H3, Pembroke,
  • 24041, drl, SM Energy, Broderson 2X-27HA, Siverston
NOTE: Whiting's BSMU well below. Madison wells do not have the decline rate for which the Bakken is famous. Ergo: this is a very, very good well.


23224, see above, KOG, Moccasin Creek 4-3-23-4H, Moccasin Creek, on a gas pipeline:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

23231, see above, Baytex, Joyce 4-9-160-98H 1BP, Skabo, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 23479, see above, Fidelity, Sundts 23-14-15H, Stanley:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

23201, see above, Liberty Resources, Lassey 152-103-27-34-1H, Glass Bluff:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 23247, see above, Whiting, BSMU 1806, Big Stick: 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

23424, see above, OXY USA, Sivak 1-29-28H-143-98, Hungry Man Butte,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

23550, see below, G3 Operating, Fort Berthold 152-94-14C-11-2H, Antelope:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

A little sax:

He's a Rebel, The Crystals

The back story:

Interview, Darlene Love

The Darlene Love interview; poor quality, but very, very good, but too short:

Lost Opportunity: Just Some Random Rambling

I wish I had thought of this earlier; it's too late now and probably not worth the effort anyway.

I wish I had taken a screenshot of the NDIC GIS map the first of every month from the very beginning. With 200 rigs in a small area of western North Dakota, it's pretty much just a solid glob of green on the NDIC map, due to the density of the rigs.

However, starting a few months ago, I started to see more and more rigs moving from the center to the periphery. Tonight it is quite remarkable. The number of rigs has remained constant for quite some time but now we are starting to see them "spread out": to the north / northwest (Divide County); one rig to the far northeast; but most notable, a number of rigs moving south towards Dickinson and farther southwest.

For example. there are six rigs between Dickinson and Belfield, and another seven rigs north of these (south and southwest of Killdeer).

The seven rigs south and south west of Killdeer:
22761, drl, OXY USA, Crosby Creek 1-19-18H-144-98, a 2-well pad, Little Knife,
24718, drl, OXY USA, James Cross 1-5-8H-143-98, Little Knife,
22918, drl, OXY USA, Matthew Schmidt 3-35-2H-144-97, a 2-well pad, Cabernet,
25256, drl, MRO, Michael Charchenko 24-21H, Murphy Creek, 
22896, drl, OXY USA, William Kubischta 3-14-11H-143-96, a 4-well pad, Fayette,
22926, drl, OXY USA, Brew 3-13-12H-143-96, a 4-well pad, Murphy Creek,
24926, conf (ros), OXY USA, Eleanor Twist 2-4-10H-143-95, Murphy Creek,

A Big "Thank You" To Carpe Diem For The "Hat Tip"

The story is here. Scroll to the bottom of the post.

Mark Perry references the impact of a single well. It's already "crazy" and it's gonna get crazier: we're getting use to four-well pads in the Bakken. We are starting to see more 5-well and 6-well pads.

It's hard to believe, but we may start seeing more 10-well pads, or two 5-well pads next to each other. Some already exist, but relatively few. The wells at $10 million apiece will push a single 5-well pad or a 10-well pad to $50 million to $100 million. To help put that in perspective, KOG's 2013 CAPEX is $775 million, 75 net wells, according to their most recent corporate presentation.

But I think when we go to 10-well pads we will start to see mini-oil-pad-complexes (MOPC). For ten to twelve months these pads will be mini-industrial sites where sand and ceramics are staged over time. There will be a water pumping station or reservoir. Scores of tanks for commingling will be on site. Small natural gas processing plants will be built to provide power for ten pumps. McDonald's restaurants will move in on-site. Okay, kidding about that last one. But it wouldn't be surprising to see temporary living quarters on-site. 

This Winter Just Doesn't Quit: 9 of Minnesota's Top 10 Walleye Fishing Lakes Might Be Frozen Over Opening Day

The (Minneapolis) StarTribune is reporting:
Henry Drewes, DNR regional fisheries manager in Bemidji, said 26 to 36 inches of ice covers Lake of the Woods, Upper Red, Leech and Cass lakes, which are in his region. What are the chances ice will be gone by May 11?
“I think it’s highly unlikely,’’ he said. “There’s still a foot of frozen slush and snow on top of that ice. It would take extraordinary circumstances for those basins to be ice-free by May 11.’’
The same situation exists on Winnibigoshish, Rainy, Kabetogama, Vermilion and Mille Lacs. And lakes in the northeast, though not in the top 10, also could be covered with ice on the opener.
Rick McKeever of Young’s Bay Resort at the Northwest Angle of Lake of the Woods said there’s not much hope the ice will be gone there in just two weeks.
“There’s 3 solid feet of ice out there yet,’’ he said Friday.
Last year, the resort had its boats in the water by early April. “We were golfing in March,’’ McKeever said. 

This Is Refreshing ... A Little More Science, And A Little Less Political Correctness

From Pittsburg, the AP is reporting:
The Environmental Protection Agency has dramatically lowered its estimate of how much of a potent heat-trapping gas leaks during natural gas production, in a shift with major implications for a debate that has divided environmentalists: Does the recent boom in fracking help or hurt the fight against climate change?
Oil and gas drilling companies had pushed for the change, but there have been differing scientific estimates of the amount of methane that leaks from wells, pipelines and other facilities during production and delivery. Methane is the main component of natural gas.
The new EPA data is "kind of an earthquake" in the debate over drilling, said Michael Shellenberger, the president of the Breakthrough Institute, an environmental group based in Oakland, CA
"This is great news for anybody concerned about the climate and strong proof that existing technologies can be deployed to reduce methane leaks."
The scope of the EPA's revision was vast. In a mid-April report on greenhouse emissions, the agency now says that tighter pollution controls instituted by the industry resulted in an average annual decrease of 41.6 million metric tons of methane emissions from 1990 through 2010, or more than 850 million metric tons overall. That's about a 20 percent reduction from previous estimates. The agency converts the methane emissions into their equivalent in carbon dioxide, following standard scientific practice. 
So, we'll see where this goes next. I'm surprised the study was funded. I'm even more surprised the results were published. And published in the mainstream media. Albeit on a Sunday when no one is paying attention.

Kearl Oil Sands -- Canada

Bloomberg is reporting that Exxon Mobil is beginning production at Kearl Oil Sands:
Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s largest company by market value, began production at its Kearl oil sands project in Alberta, which is projected to produce 4.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the next 40 years. 
The project will produce 110,000 barrels per day later this year and that’s expected to double by late 2015, the company said in a statement. The Kearl site is 46 miles (75 km) northeast of Fort McMurray, Alberta, and is operated by Imperial Oil Ltd., which is 70 percent owned by Exxon Mobil. 
Data points:
  • C$13 billion
  • will ship oil to Imperial / XOM refineries to offset low crude oil prices
  • Imperial is looking at rail to ship this oil due to pipeline constraints in western Canada
Coincidentally, in an article published at The Oil Drum the same day as the above story, it was noted that the Kearl Oil Sands is not affected by the Keystone XL: 
Canada is expected to reach a production total of 4 mbd by the end of the year, with the largest impact coming from the Kearl Oil Sands production anticipated to bring 110 kbd to market in the third quarter. (This is not dependent on the Keystone pipeline.) 
The (Calgary) Globe and Mail also has a nice article on the Kearls Oil Sands:
Even Imperial reported lower earnings in this first quarter compared to 2012, in part because of discounted prices for its Cold Lake bitumen. Imperial’s earnings in the first quarter of 2013 were $798-million, down 21 per cent or $217-million from the first quarter of 2012. The company said the lower earnings “were primarily attributable to the impacts of lower liquids realizations of $270-million, higher refinery and Syncrude maintenance effects of $165-million and higher Kearl production readiness expenditures.”
One analyst said the Kearl mining project will be a less important factor in pricing and the differential than the opening of Enbridge’s Flanagan South expansion, which is slated to come on stream in 2014. The pipeline link will help to get heavy oil to markets on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

So, how are the pipeline opponents doing? They seem to be winning the verbal debate. The key words in that preceding sentence: "seem" and "verbal."

The Calgary Herald is reporting
“Psst. Big Oil. We’re winning …”
Psst, NIMBY environmentalists: yes, sort of, but no, not really.
The above quote was tweeted by Vancouver green activist Tzeporah Berman this week after B.C. NDP Leader Adrian Dix said he will oppose expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, and follows a series of recent “wins” for foes of new oil pipelines in North America.
From lengthy delays in reviews for Keystone XL and Northern Gateway to the negative publicity over crude oil pipeline ruptures from Alberta to Arkansas, the opposition appears to be winning the battle for media headlines this spring.
Gloating, however, might be premature.
Berman isn’t simply some yahoo on Twitter. She has legitimate credentials as a former co-director of the climate unit at Greenpeace International and a founder of ForestEthics, but she is overstating the impact of pipeline protests.
Actually she is a yahoo. These NIMBY activists are one-trick ponies. 

Two trends:
a) Big Oil is winning
b) more rail in the short- to medium-term
There are two arenas: a) the political arena; b) the investing arena

Political arena:
I don't care who wins on the pipeline story: activists or realists. I have no control over it and it will be what it will be (Kennedy: worry about the things one can change; don't worry about the things one can't change, or something to that effect)
Investing arena:
  • it looks like manufacturers are going to be busy making rail tank cars for quite some time
  • companies with rights of way already in place have a nice head start
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