Saturday, March 16, 2013

Rush Limbaugh Nailed It

Sent to me by a reader. I have not listened to Rush in years.

Attributed to Rush Limbaugh, undated:
I think the vast differences in compensation between victims of the September 11 casualty and those who die serving our country in uniform are profound.

No one is really talking about it either, because you just don't criticize anything having to do with September 11.

Well, I can't let the numbers pass by because it says something really disturbing about the entitlement mentality of this country. If you lost a family member in the September 11 attack, you're going to get an average of $1,185,000. The range is a minimum guarantee of $250,000, all the way up to $4.7 million.

If you are a surviving family member of an American soldier killed in action, the first check you get is a $6,000 direct death benefit, half of which is taxable. Next, you get $1,750 for burial costs. If you are the surviving spouse, you get $833 a month until you remarry. And there's a payment of $211 per month for each child under 18. When the child hits 18, those payments come to a screeching halt.

Keep in mind that some of the people who are getting an average of $1.185 million up to $4.7 million are complaining that it's not enough.

Their deaths were tragic, but for most, they were simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. Soldiers put themselves in harms way FOR ALL OF US, and they and their families know the dangers. (Actually, soldiers are put in harms way by politicians and commanding officers.)
We also learned over the weekend that some of the victims from the Oklahoma City bombing have started an organization asking for the same deal that the September 11 families are getting. In addition to that, some of the families of those bombed in the embassies are now asking for compensation as well. You see where this is going, don't you?

Folks, this is part and parcel of over 50 years of entitlement politics in this country. It's just really sad. Every time a pay raise comes up for the military, they usually receive next to nothing of a raise. Now the green machine is in combat in the Middle East while their families have to survive on food stamps and live in low-rent housing. Make sense?

However, our own US Congress voted themselves a raise. Many of you don't know that they only have to be in Congress one time to receive a pension that is more than $15,000 per month. And most are now equal to being millionaires plus. They do not receive Social Security on retirement because they didn't have to pay into the system. If some of the military people stay in for 20 years and get out as an E-7, they may receive a pension of $1,000 per month, and the very people who placed them in harm's way receives a pension of $15,000 per month.

I would like to see our elected officials pick up a weapon and join ranks before they start cutting out benefits and lowering pay for our sons and daughters who are now fighting.

Average Oil Production Per North Dakota Well Per Day


December 26, 2014: data for production may be updated periodically.

Original Post

When I first started blogging about the Bakken, I posted the average oil production per North Dakota well per day. With the news that North Dakota production has plateaued at around 740,000 bopd, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at that data again.

Oil was discovered in North Dakota in 1951, so few wells early on would skew results. Therefore, I started with 1961.

Here is the average oil production per ND well per day in bbls)

January, 1961: 44 bopd per North Dakota well; 1,469 producing wells
January, 1971: 40 bopd; 1,462 producing wells
January, 1981: 54 bopd; 2,290 producing wells
January, 1991: 30 bopd; 3,393 producing wells
January, 2000, the year the Bakken boom began in Montana: 29 bopd; 3,089 active wells
January, 2005: 29 bopd; 3,154 producing wells
January, 2006: 30 bopd; 3,264 producing wells
January, 2007, the year the Bakken boom began in North Dakota: 33 bopd; 3,449 active wells
January, 2008: 38 bopd; 3,662 producing wells
January, 2009: 48 bopd; 3,951 producing wells
January, 2010: 54 bopd: 4,394 producing wells
January, 2011: 68 bopd; 5,067 producing wells
January, 2012: 86 bopd; 6,347 producing wells
December, 2012: 96 bopd: 8,004 producing wells
January, 2013: 91 bopd; 8,075 producing wells
January, 2014: 96 bopd, 9,752 producing wells (slump in oil price began October, 2014)

33 bopd/well in 2007 when the boom started in North Dakota. 96 bopd/well recently. Almost tripled in six years. 

Production would include wells that are producing but not yet completed. It will be interesting to see if during the transition to multi-pad drilling we might not see a trend, albeit temporary, in the number of producing wells continuing to increase, and average daily production per well decreasing. Bakken wells produce some oil before they are completed/fracked.

The development of the Spearfish formation has lagged during the Bakken boom. But now, it seems that Legacy and Surge are getting their drilling programs in place and will significantly increase Spearfish drilling. These wells have much lower production than the Bakken. If the number of Spearfish wells is high enough to affect the data, the Spearfish wells should pull the daily average production down per well. Of course, overall production will go up.

The source for the data is the NDIC website. At this link, click on "Historical Monthly Oil Production Statistics."

Saturday Morning Links (Continued)

Active rigs: 185

WSJ Links

Section D (Off Duty):

Section C (Review): 
  • The new unmarried moms; we've reduced teen pregnancy, but no childbearing outside wedlock is exploding among 20-somethings; "carriage before marriage";
  • A king's overreaching, traced in black glass; obsidian; King Sargon
  • Book review, Farther and Wilder, Blake Bailey, biography of Charles Jackson;
  • Book review, The New Mind of the South, Tracy Thompson, "Southerners are the most fervently, often obtusely, patriotic of Americans;
  • Book review, Finding Florida, T. D. Allman, "A fearful fraud," Henry James called the place in 1904, 'a ton of dreary jungle and swamp and misery of flat forest monotony to an an ounce or two of little coast perching place -- a few feet wide between the jungle and the sea." Florida. [I happened to see this book later the same day I saw the review: the chapters devoted to Disney World are worth the price of the book. I finally understand Epcot Center, why it had such promotion, and then never seemed to live up to its promise.]
  • Book review, Kentucky Bourbon Whiskey, Michael R. Veach.
Secton B (Business & Finance):
Section A
  • Op-ed: three years after the spill, BP gets bullish;
  • Op-ed: new Medicaid's roach motel; the GOP flippers can check in, but it's unlikely they can check out; 
  • Sports: why golf and politics don't mix; a piece of trivia I missed; not enough money in the budget for White House tours; plenty of money available for presidential golfing trips; I can't make this stuff up. The placement of this article is pretty compelling. On the previous page, there is an op-ed about the "humbleness" of the new pope. So, one can cut out this page of the WSJ and post it on the refrigerator, with either the "pope story" or the "golf/white house tour story" facing. 
Miscellaneous links
Bill Maher probably won't be moving to France. He surprised Rachel by saying he's about had it with folks saying the rich don't pay enough in taxes. Says he may leave California. Paraphrased, of course.

Detroit's emergency financial manager caught up in "nanny tax." Four liens for tens of thousands of dollars against his million dollar home for "There was apparently an oversight related to a childcare provider unemployment insurance payment," Wurfel wrote in an e-mail. "Immediately upon learning of the potential issue just today, he took action at once to look into and resolve with the state of Maryland." Joins the list of the rich and famous which includes Tim Geithner and Zoe.  I can't make this stuff up. Apologists: as long as he makes good on what he owes, no harm, no foul.

Law of large numbers: Financial Times is reporting:
Chinese doctors have performed more than 330m abortions since the government implemented a controversial family planning policy 40 years ago, according to official data from the health ministry.
Meanwhile, for the US:
In the US, where the population is 315m or about one-quarter the size of China’s, an estimated 50m abortions have been performed since the landmark Roe vs Wade Supreme Court decision legalised abortion in 1973.
Multiply the 50 million by 4 to get 200 million. That is significantly less than 330 million but both numbers are pretty much in the same ballpark, "the 200 - 400 million abortion/ 40 years / 1 billion people" ball park.
All numbers are estimates. It is not mandatory to report abortions in the US.

Abraxas Update for 2013

The linked article belows references a "Lillibridge East pad," but does not specify which wells; most likely permits #23622 - 23625, a 4-well pad. The NDIC website lists these Lillibridge wells:
  • 6849, 135, Abraxas, Lillibridge 3, Pershing, a Madison well, t3/79; cum 267K 1/3; still active after 33 years;
  • 7886, 271/PA, Graham Royalty, Lillibridge 1, Johnson Corner, a Red River well; t1/81; cum 51K 9/91;
  • 8065, PNC, Flying J, L. Lillibridge 4, Pershing
  • 9461, Dry, Amoco, Lillibridge Amoco A 1, Wildcat, a Red River well; 
  • 10525, 22/PNA/SWD, Abraxas, Lillibridge 4, Pershing, a Madison, t2/84; cum 28K 4/97;
  • 16571, 476, BR, Lillibridge 11-23H, Blue Buttes, 2-sec; t11/07; cum 169K 1/13;
  • 23622, conf, Abraxas, Lillibridge 20-17-1H, Pershing;
  • 23623, conf, Abraxas, Lillibridge 20-17-2H, Pershing;
  • 23624, conf, Abraxas, Lillibridge 20-17-3H, Pershing;
  • 23625, conf, Abraxas, Lillibridge 20-17-4H, Pershing;
  • 23645, conf, BR, Lillibridge 24-22MBH 2NH, Johnson Corner
  • 23647, conf, BR, Lillibridge 24-22TFH-3NH, Johnson Corner
Rigzone is reporting:
Operations in the Williston Basin, Bakken: Drilling continues on the Company's Lillibridge East pad with intermediate casing set on the 1H, 2H, 3H and 4H. The Company recently drilled and cased the lateral on the 4H with a 50 foot flare encountered while drilling. The rig is now preparing to spud the lateral of the 3H, which will be followed by the 2H and 1H. Abraxas owns a working interest of approximately 34 percent in the Lillibridge East PAD. As previously announced, the Ravin 2H and Ravin 3H were recently completed with the Ravin 2H performing in line and the Ravin 3H outperforming the Company's type curve. Abraxas owns a 49 percent working interest in both the Ravin 2H and 3H.
With regard to assets in the Bakken:
Abraxas recently sold ... scattered royalty interests in North Dakota and Montana at the March 2013 Oil and Gas Clearinghouse Auction ....
And more:
Furthermore, we continue to make progress in our efforts to refocus our portfolio and delever our balance sheet, with the non-op Bakken sale process starting in earnest as well as the recent sale of several non-core properties in Oklahoma, Louisiana and scattered royalty interests in North Dakota and Montana. 

Week 11: March 10, 2013 -- March 16, 2013

Bakken is selling at a premium to WTI at Clearbrook

Bakken operations
COP update; three top wells in ND based on IP rate; other data
North Dakota oil production declines slightly in January due to weather
Heckmann will be changing its name to Nuverra Environmental Solutions
Hess has another gusher in the Truax oil field
Several nice wells being reported
More nice wells being reported, including a Spearfish well
"Array" fracking comment

Crude by rail
New Town site to be expanded; $50 million expansion
Incredible Reuters video of the Bakken Oil Express CBR terminal west of Dickinson

Economic development
Watford City in the "eye of the storm"
New eye clinic in Williston
Williston, Dickinson, Minot: fastest growing micropolitan areas in the US; Williston #1, second year
Bakken success extending to Minnesota and Chicago
Home Depot coming to Minot; all commercial acreage in new Crosby subdivision spoke for
School districts see huge increase in student population

New Bakken formation
Whiting: the Lower Bakken Silt; fracking above and below

LNG Corridors
The Chinese

Media attention
Photos of the Bakken

Saturday Morning Links -- Just Getting Started


March 18, 2013: the story below about Chicago workers moving to the Bakken for jobs; the story had a by-line from Williston; it was linked at Drudge Report today (Monday, March 18, 2013). 

Original Post

I am so busy this a.m. .... so much to post ... and so little time this morning.... of course, I'll eventually get to it, even if I have to work late into tonight, but I like to get things up as fast as possible.

So, fewer comments right now, and just some great links.

First, one reader sent in these three stories. They are really, really exciting; nice stories:
Dakota Plains Holdings of Wayzata and a partner are spending $50 million to build looped tracks to rapidly load trains. Think of the great video posted yesterday: the Reuters video: the Bakken Oil Express west of Dickinson.

North Dakota fracking lures Chicagoans. This site requires one to sign in, but not a paid subscription, as far as I can tell. But it's a bit of a pain. I just saw the headline before I got the annoying sign-in request. I will come back to it later (if I remember).

Minnesota businesses are booming along with the Bakken boom.

A huge "thank you" to the reader for sending these links.


Other Links

I don't invest in Rosetta, nor do I follow Rosetta, but every once in awhile I run across the company, especially when checking in on Montana oil and gas industry. So this story caught my eye: Rosetta buying Comstock's properties in the Permian. For $768 million:
The acquisition covers about 53,300 net acres. The Reeves County assets include about 40,200 net acres and 74 producing wells. Total current net production is about 3,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day, of which more than 73% is oil. Rosetta said it projects significant growth potential in the area and the company will be the operator of the majority of the Reeves County assets.
The Gaines County assets cover about 13,100 net acres, with multiple exploratory opportunities for the area, Rosetta said.
Quick, back-of-the-envelope: $768 million / 53,300 acres = $14,400/acre which includes current production: 3,300 boe @$50/boe = $60 million/year. 

Energy boom in west Texas, Great Plains fueling economy, the lede (as usual, starts with the Bakken):
The boom in Bakken and Permian Basin oil and gas activity helped fuel population growth in North Dakota and Texas from 2011 to 2012, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Thursday.
Midland, Texas ranked as the fastest-growing metro area from July 1, 2011 to July 1, 2012, with population growth of 4.6 percent. Neighboring Odessa, Texas, ranked fifth, with Casper and Cheyenne, Wyo., and Bismarck, N.D. ranked among the top 20 fastest-growing metropolitan areas.
"After a long period of out-migration, some parts of the Great Plains – from just south to the Canadian border all the way down to West Texas –are experiencing rapid population growth," said Thomas Mesenbourg, the Census Bureau's senior adviser and acting director, in a statement. "There are probably many factors fueling this growth on the prairie, but no doubt the energy boom is playing a role. For instance, the Permian Basin, located primarily in West Texas, and North Dakota accounted for almost half of the total U.S. growth in firms that mine or extract oil and gas, during a recent one-year period."
I used to refer to this strip from western North Dakota to west Texas as the "US energy corridor"; the "energy backbone of the US"; the "US renaissance corridor" or variations thereof. 

The story also goes on:
In micropolitan areas, which contain an urban cluster of between 10,000 and 49,999 people, Williston, N.D. topped the list of fastest-growing cities with 9.3 percent. Dickinson, N.D. ranked third among fastest-growing micropolitan areas with 6.5 percent. (So, who was 2nd? If it was in the article, I missed it.)
I'm not sure why this has not been updated:
In 2011, North Dakota was the fourth largest crude oil producing U.S. state, accounting for more than 7 percent of U.S. oil production, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). A 35 percent increase in production from 2010 to 2011 was primarily driven by horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing in the Bakken formation.
EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to keep growing rapidly over the next two years, growing from an average 6.5 million barrels per day in 2012 to an average 7.3 million bpd in 2013 and 7.9 million bpd in 2014. Drilling in tight oil plays in the onshore Williston, western Gulf of Mexico and Permian Basins, is expected to account for the bulk of that forecasted production growth, EIA reported in its March 12 Short-Term Energy Outlook.
North Dakota is now #2 among the states in crude oil production, accounting for about 12% of all US crude oil production.