Thursday, March 7, 2013

ObamaCare Hurting Jobs, Sales

CNBC is reporting:
The Affordable Care Act is cited five times in the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book. One of those citations notes that the law will likely drive up demand for health care services. The other four describe the health care reform as hurting employment and sales.

The notion that Obamacare, as the law is popularly known, would be a jobs killer was widely denied by its supporters. A report from the Annenberg Public Policy Center accused Republican critics of misrepresenting facts when the bill would hurt employment. It cited "non-partisan experts" who said the law would have little or no effect on employment.
When the Congressional Budget Office examined the law's impact on jobs, it saw only mildly negative employment effects arising from early retirement and allowing the poor to work fewer hours to meet their needs. The CBO didn't think that employers would slow down hiring because of the law.
But that's exactly what appears to be happening
And so it goes. 

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Friday; KOG With Two Huge Wells

20825, 50, Petro-Hunt, Williams and Larson Trust 157-100-8D-5-1H, Marmon, 25 stages; 2.8 million lbs sand; 26 days spud to TD; 9 days spud to KOP; t12/12; cum 8K 1/13;
22162, 1,749, KOG, Skunk Creek 16-2-3-13H, South Fork, t1212; cum 37K 1/13;
22289, 1,444, MRO, Joanne Quale USA 21-30TFH, Reunion Bay, t12/12; cum 30K 1/13;
22661, 1,769, KOG, Polar Bibler 155-99-15-31-30-2H3, Epping, t1/13; cum 9K 1/13;
23299, 515, Hess, SC-TR Slette 153-98-1819H-2, Truax, t12/12; cum 24K 1/13;


22162, see above, KOG, Skunk Creek 16-2-3-13H, South Fork, already on a gas line:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

22289, see above, MRO, Joanne Quale USA 21-30TFH, Reunion Bay, on a gas line:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Heel-to-Toe & Toe-to-Heel

I talked about heel-to-toe/toe-to-heel horizontals a long time ago.

Hess has two active wells running south-to-north in Hawkeye oil field, and today has permits to run wells right next to them but in the opposite direction, north-to-south. It will be interesting to see how close they put these new horizontals to the old horizontals. Based on surface locations, the separation appears to be about 600 to 800 feet (don't quote me on that; just a quick calculation).

The earlier, south-to-north horizontals:
  • 16694, 348, Hess, HA-Mogen-152-95-0805H-1, middle Bakken 12/07; cum 310K 12/16; 300K sand
  • 20738, 1,496, Hess, HA-Mogen-152-95-0805H-1, Three Forks, t12/11; cum 579K 12/16; 38 stages; 3.8 mill lbs; s/c
The permits issued today, running north-to-south:
  • 25144, 892, Hess, HA-Mogen-152-95-0508H-4, Hawkeye, t12/13; cum 166K 12/16;
  • 25145, 1,053, Hess, HA-Mogen-152-95-0508H-5, Hawkeye, t12/13; cum 263K 12/16;
  • 25146, 764, Hess, HA-Mogen-152-95-0508H-6, Hawkeye, t1/14; cum 152K 12/16;

Eighty Percent of NYC High School Students Cannot Read Adequately to Start Community Colllege

CBS News is reporting:
The number of kids behind the 8-ball is the highest in years, CBS 2′s Marcia Kramer reported Thursday.

Officials told CBS 2′s Kramer that nearly 80 percent of those who graduate from city high schools arrived at City University’s community college system without having mastered the skills to do college-level work.
In sheer numbers it means that nearly 11,000 kids who got diplomas from city high schools needed remedial courses to re-learn the basics.
To meet the needs of the students, City University has launched a special program called CUNY Start. It provides low-cost immersion classes. Sherry Mason teaches a writing class.
“They get lost sometimes in the classrom and in CUNY Start we give them a lot more one-on-one attention, small grouip [sic] work. It helps them achieve more in a short amount of time and so they’re able to get on with their credit classes,” Mason said.
I am not sure what a "New York grouip" is.

Nine (9) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

Active rigs: 186 (steady)

Nine (9) new permits -- 
  • Operators: Hess (3), Enerplus (2), KOG (2), OXY USA, Whiting
  • Fields: Crooked Creek (Dunn), Pleasant Hill (McKenzie), Mondak (McKenzie), Moccasin Creek (Dunn), Hawkeye (Hess)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Producing wells completed:
  • 21752, 656, Enerplus,Beluga 148-93-06B-05-3H, t2/13; cum --
  • 21981, 377, CLR, Alpha 1-14H, t1/13; cum --
  • 22684, 689, Hess, EN-Jeffrey A-155-94-2734H-2 , t2/13; cum--
Permit canceled:
  • 24898, PNC, BR, Badlands 11-15TFH, McKenzie

Class-Action Suits -- Random Post; Banks With An Incredible Amount of Money -- Random Post

This is entirely random, a post about class-action suits, but could be important down the line.

Forbes is reporting:
The Supreme Court heard a case last week that could add new limitations on class actions, potentially adding to a trend that has gained momentum within the judicial body in recent years.
This is why it is important:
The oral argument came on the heels of the Court’s recent decisions curbing class actions.  In a 2011 decision, AT&T v. Concepcion, the Court allowed companies to evade class actions by directing their contractual partners into individual arbitration proceedings.
The ruling had an immediate impact.  More than 75 class actions were stopped or significantly hampered within its first year, according to Public Citizen, a consumer advocacy organization.  Plus, companies like Microsoft updated their agreements with consumers in response to the decision.  Concepcion will likely weigh heavily on the Court’s thinking in the American Express case.
Besides the Concepcion case, the Court also ruled in favor of Wal-Mart in 2011, bringing to an end what was the largest employee class action in the nation’s history.  Both rulings have supplemented Congressional attempts to curb class actions during the past two decades.
Meanwhile, CNBC is reporting:
"In the first quarter of 2013, the banking industry will make more money than in any quarter in the history of American banking," he said. "You have so much excess capital in the banking industry at the present time that you have to go back to 1938 to find a year in which the percentage of capital to assets was as high as it is now."

Never Fails to Surprise: US Oil Imports Surge 12 Percent; Keystone????


March 8, 2013: The original post: oil imports surged 12.3 percent in January, 2013. The most current data at EIA's website is through December, 2012, so we have to wait a few days until we see the new EIA numbers.  A 12.3 percent increase in January, 2013 (over December, 2012), would bring us to 334,564,000 bbls/month (10.792 million bbls/day) which would bring us back to levels seen last July/August, 2012. The delta between December and January should be about 36,000 bbls.

Saudi Arabia: 45,000 bbls in July, 2012; 32,000 bbls in December, 2012 (huge drop, by the way); the delta is 13,000 bbls -- about a third of the 36K delta for US imports. So, unless imports jumped to "absurd" levels from Saudi Arabia, the 24,000 additional bbls had to have come from somewhere else. Where? Imports from Canada are already hitting new highs, almost 100,000 bbls.

Bottom line: I just can't get there (334 million bbls/month imported) vs the 298 million bbls imported back in December. It will be interesting to see the January, 2013, import data provided by the EIA.

Original Post

The data never fails to surprise me. The themes for the past few weeks have been: a) increasing domestic oil production (state, not federal); and, b) a bad US economy. And, then today we learn that:
The U.S. trade deficit widened in January, reflecting a big jump in oil imports and a drop in exports.
Imports rose 1.8 percent to $228.9 billion as oil imports surged 12.3 percent. 
With a bad US economy, a recession in the EU, and increasing oil production would anyone have thought US oil imports would have increased? Indeed, they didn't just increase. They surged. That's the AP word, not mine: surged.

Had the Keystone been approved some years ago, it would now be bringing Canadian oil into the US; instead our imports of oil continue to surge; I assume this includes Canadian oil, but the pipelines should be at capacity meaning the surge, all things being equal, is coming from our allies: Venezuela and other OPEC countries.

I see the price of oil is trending up.

So, how are the markets doing?
  • CVX: flat, down slightly; profit taking after hitting all-time high yesterday
  • COP: flat, up slightly
  • XOM: flat, down slightly; production issues this next year
  • CLR: up a bit
  • OAS: up over one percent
  • TPLM: up about a one percent
  • PSX: down about a percent
  • ENB: flat
  • EOG: flat, up slightly
  • T: flat
So, that gives me an idea of how things are going in early trading.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site; do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here. 

The "Shale Revolution" Could Derail Chinese Growth

CNBC reporting:
With oil production at a twenty year high and predictions of a manufacturing renaissance for the U.S. economy, one of the world's largest investment banks has detailed how the "shale revolution" will negatively affect emerging markets such as China.
Hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," has helped lead a revolution in gas and oil production in the United States. The new technology is unlocking oil and shale gas resources, spurring economic activity and giving industry a competitive edge with less expensive gas and electricity prices.
These developments could lead to the industrialization of the U.S. economy and could deliver sustainable growth, Morgan Stanley said in a research note on Wednesday.
With the help of cheap energy, manufacturing will pick up and move down the ladder to capturing the production of less "sophisticated" goods (computers, fabricated metals and automobiles) currently manufactured in emerging nations. As a result, the United States will likely compete with emerging markets for market share rather than being a consumer, Morgan Stanley said.
I still remember all those stories from a few years ago that the Bakken was unimportant. 

Most important in the linked article: what is not said. This is one of very few articles that does not describe fracking as a controversial technology about which we know little.

Thursday Links, Comments and Commentary; Jobless Claims

WSJ Links

Section D (Personal Journal):
Section C (Money & Investing):
  • Companies rushing to raise capital; with the surge in the prices of their shares what a great opportunity to raise cash; and such low interest rates as far out as "my" eyes can see; no links; easy to find;
Section B (Marketplace):
Section A:
  • With Hugo's death comes grief for his socialist allies; no link; stories everywhere; a reader sent this link to DallasNews with their analysis of Hugo's death;
  • Push for broader gun checks stall; Democrats lack support of key GOP senator for extending background scrutiny to all firearm sales; Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma; no link; story easy to find
  • Immigrants buoy the housing market; the dots are starting to connect; give them driver's licenses and they will buoy the automobile market; 

Unemployment Week Ended Initial Claims; 4-Week Avg. Continued Claims; rate (pct)
03/02/13 340,000 348,750 N/A N/A
02/23/13 347,000-r 355,750-r 3,094,000 2.4
02/16/13 366,000 361,750 3,091,000-r 2.4
02/09/13 342,000 352,750 3,165,000 2.5
02/02/13 368,000 351,000 3,137,000 2.4
01/26/13 371,000 352,750 3,244,000 2.5
01/19/13 330,000 351,750 3,216,000 2.5
01/12/13 335,000 360,000 3,175,000 2.5

Reuters is reporting:
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting a pick-up in the labor market recovery.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 340,000, declining for a second straight week, the Labor Department said on Thursday.
The prior week's claims figure was revised to show 3,000 more applications received than previously reported.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected first-time applications to rise to 355,000.

Random Follow-Up On That Zavanna Well That Blew Out Last August

A big "thank you" to a reader in Denmark sending me this data; reminding me of some great Zavanna wells in Long Creek oil field, neither are on a pump yet, according to the NDIC site (which lags real-time).

Link here to original post on the mishap.
  • 20085, 825, Zavanna, Nelson 3-10H, Long Creek, t8/12; cum 101K 1/13; F; 35 stages, 3.8 million lbs; sand and ceramic;
Note the horrendous Bakken decline:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

In that same Long Creek field, another Zavanna well:
  • 19981, 1,003, Zavanna, Gust 2-11 1H, Long Creek, t3/12; cum 192K 1/13; 35 stages, 3.6 million lbs; sand, ceramic; F; again, note the horrendous Bakken decline rate.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Thursday; RBN Energy And Another Reason Why Bakken Oil Not Likely To End Up As Keystone Diluent

RBN Energy: why Bakken oil won't be mixed with Keystone bitumen.

21747, 685, Zenergy, Hanson 34-27H, Dublin, t12/12; cum 14K 1/13;
22312, 452, Petro-Hunt, Fort Berthold 148-94-28A-33-1H, McGregory Buttes, t11/12; cum 37K 1/13;
22538, 447, Hess, BW-Kenny 149-101-0904H-1, Sather Lake, t12/12; cum 16K 1/13;
22794, 1,298, BEXP, Scha 33-34 2TFH, Alger, t1/13; cum 10K 1/13;
22987, 718, CLR, Doe 34-23NH, Murphy Creek, t1/12; cum 24K 1/13;
23292, drl, CLR, Topeka 2-12H, Brooklyn, no production data

22312, conf, Petro-Hunt, Fort Berthold 148-94-28A-33-1H, McGregory Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

22538, conf, Hess, BW-Kenny 149-101-0904H-1, Sather Lake:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

22794, conf,BEXP, Scha 33-34 2TFH, Alger:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

22987, conf, CLR, Doe 34-23NH, Murphy Creek,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold