Tuesday, February 26, 2013

ObamaNation 2013


July 8, 2013: More Americans are "on food stamps" than those who have full-time jobs in the private sector in the US. 

July 8, 2013: quick! who is the #1 employer in the US? Wal-Mart. Now, is #2? Kelly Services: a temporary staffing agency

July 4, 2013: the post-mortems start coming in -- the president spent way too much political capital backing the wrong horse. Politico is reporting:
President Barack Obama insisted Monday that he isn’t taking sides in the standoff between Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi and millions of protesters who’ve taken to the streets to protest his policies.
But that’s not likely to be enough for many in those angry crowds, who seem firmly convinced that the White House has bolstered the Muslim Brotherhood leader, even as ordinary Egyptians — and some in his own Cabinet — have grown increasingly dissatisfied with his rule.
Isn't taking sides? President O'Bama threw Mr Morsi under the bus on July 3. See next story.
July 3, 2013: the administration wasted no time in throwing Egyptian president Morsi under the bus; the Obama administration had been big supporters of this Islamist; the second Egyptian revolution within a year reminds us of the Benghazi debacle.

June 1, 2013:  a reader sent me this via e-mail (no link):
A reader sent this in to the Tallahassee newspaper Zing section: 
"Named my tea party organization Liberal American Progressives Defending Oppressive Government, or LAPDOG.  Got my application for tax-exempt status through the IRS like greased lightning."
May 12, 2013: I don't think there are many things worse in this country than directing the IRS to audit your enemies. It will be interesting to see how far this scandal goes, and if any heads roll

May 12, 2013: how bad is it going to get? I remember at the time of the first inauguration, or the nomination, I forget when, but I do recall very clearly Michelle telling Barack "not to mess it up." Well, this is where we stand on mother's day going into the second term:
  • Правда: seems to be the exactly the right analogy: it turns out that the IRS was targeting not just right-wing, conservative parties, but also schools that were teaching the constitution
  • the mainstream media starting to call Art Carney a "liar" but not actually using the word
  • the mainstream media is turning on Obama on the Benghazi story (see The Atlantic)  
  • his fellow Democrats are starting to see that implementation of ObamaCare later this year will be a "train wreck"; at least one Senator (Montana's Baucus) will not run for re-election because of the debacle about to occur
  • it turns out that Washington missed warnings on the Boston Marathon bomber (though it probably would have made no difference; this administration does not have a good record on returning "bad guys" to their home country when violating their visa status 
  • the GOP is holding up Obama nominations; all the above will give the GOP more resolve
April 18, 2013: Within 24 - 48 hours of the Boston Marathon bombing, a decision was made to "deport" a Saudi national who was of interest early in the investigation. The FBI said they had a suspect, and then said they didn't. One wonders if the FBI had identified a Saudi national as the suspect, and then got a call from the White House to back off. It will be very disturbing if no one is ever held accountable for this terrorist event. It's very likely that the White House made a calculated decision that the loss of three lives in Boston will blow over in a few weeks when no one is held accountable. 

March 19, 2013: Seven US Marines die in a training accident in Nevada, and the President tweets a "White House snack." Absolutely no sensitivity to the military. White House tours, by the way, have been canceled, due to 2% budget crunch. 

March 1, 2013, later: at the press conference, the president says the sequester is "just plain dumb." Wait until we get to the debt ceiling later in the month. And speaking of "just plain dumb," the president's weekend golf outing with Tiger Woods = 341 furloughed government workers. Senator Jeff Sessions calls the president's "response to the sequestration "the most cynical behavior I have seen during my time in Washington." My question: why are furloughed workers given a three-day weekend; the furlough should be on Tuesday or Wednesday if furloughed one day/week. Those are usually the "quiet days." And government workers like to be in the office Monday to order from the internet, especially after Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year, after which all the specials are advertised. [March 3, 2013: this sequester that is "just plain dumb." Remember, it was the president who proposed it and now the White House admits it.]

March 1, 2013: looks like the market likes what it sees. The market is up after the news: the president will go through with the sequester order, at least based on his rambling press conference. Did anyone understand his answer to the first question? I left before the second question was asked.  At least I know it was the "other side's" entire fault. Something about the "other side" not giving the president a "dime" in revenue.

First face-to-face meeting between President Obama and GOP Congressional leaders -- on the day the sequester order to be signed. The face-to-face meeting is scheduled to last seven minutes: three minutes to file in; one minute photo-op; and, then, three minutes to file out. February 28, 2013. Everybody knows. 

Everybody Knows, Leonard Cohen

Additional columnists and reporters are coming forward: they've been threatened by the White House to quit writing "negative" stories about the Obama administration. Nixon bunker mentality? Madness? Imploding? February 28, 2013

Democrats complain that a "debt clock" is on display on Capitol Hill, as reported by The Daily Caller, so it is "not displayed" when the Democrats are talking. February 26, 2013.


ABC edits Michelle's comment, February 26, 2013
The uncut, original transcript:
“She was standing out in a park with her friends in a neighborhood blocks away from where my kids…grew up, where our house is. She had just taken a chemistry test. And she was caught in the line of fire because some kids had some automatic weapons they didn’t need,” she said. “I just don’t want to keep disappointing our kids in this country. I want them to know that we put them first.”
The phrases in bold were cut to save time, according to ABC News.

The edited, aired version:
“She was standing out in a park with her friends in a neighborhood blocks away from where my kids grow – grew – up, where our house is. And she was caught in the line of fire - I just don’t want to keep disappointing our kids in this country. I want them to know that we put them first.”
And so it goes.

As reported at The Washington Examiner.

For Investors Only: Enbridge (ENB) Drops After-Hours; About Same Time WSJ Posts An Article Featuring Canadian Ambassador Speaking on Merits of Keystone; Says It Should Be Approved This Spring


February 27, 2013: with regard to "huge" after-hours drop in ENB yesterday; never mind. ENB is up slightly from yesterday's close. The after-hours drop appears to have been a one-off, but we will see how the rest of the day goes.

Original Post
The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
Canadian officials have been ramping up their public lobbying in support of U.S. approval of TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline expansion. The Obama administration is expected to make a ruling in coming months
Amid that campaign, Gary Doer, Canada’s ambassador to Washington, told Canada Real Time that he has a question for the American people: “Do you want your oil from Hugo Chavez or do you want it from Canada?” 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read at this site.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Wednesday Including Another OXY USA Well; QEP Looks To Have a Huge Well

20750, 53, OXY USA, Katie Heiser 1-12-1H-142-95, Murphy Creek, t8/12; cum 2K 12/12;
21868, 957, Zavanna, Barker 24-13 1H, Boxcar Butte, t12/12; cum 36K 12/12;
22029, 1,961, QEP, MHA 4-32-29H-150-91, Heart Butte, t11/12; cum 30K 12/12;
23466, 226, American Eagle, Silas 3-2N-163-101, Colgan, t12/12; cum 10K 12/12;
23598, DRY, Whiting, Kittelson 32-27R, wildcat, a Deadwood well; northeast of Beach, in the southwest corner of the state; probably a Red River well;


20750, conf, OXY USA, Katie Heiser 1-12-1H-142-95, Murphy Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 21868, conf, Zavanna, Barker 24-13 1H, Boxcar Butte:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

22029, conf, QEP, MHA 4-32-29H-150-91, Heart Butte:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 23466, conf, American Eagle, Silas 3-2N-163-101, Colgan

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Midwest Motor Express Expands In Rapid City, SD

The Rapid City Journal is reporting:
Midwest Motor Express has announced plans to build a new $2.3 million service center/terminal at 3720 Seger Drive, off Interstate 90 Exit 61.
The new facility will have a larger footprint than the company’s current location at 540 Deadwood Ave. and, with four additional freight doors, also offer more flexibility.
It will also mark the first time in Midwest’s 30-year Rapid City history that the North Dakota-based freight company will own its building here.
The company:
Midwest Motor Express is considered a “less-than-truckload carrier.” It provides shipping services for individual pallets and smaller shipments. Founded in 1918, the company has 30 service centers in 16 states.

Well Completions of Interest in Montana

The Fairfield Sun-Times is reporting:

In Petroleum County, Central Montana Resources, LLC turned in a completion report for the Snowmane 6. The well, which taps into the Heath Formation, has a total depth of 4,244 feet. The well reported an IP of 125 barrels of water per day (no typo -- I can't access original source to confirm).

In Richland County, Whiting Oil and Gas Corporation reported the completion of three Bakken Formation wells. 

  • The Double Bar M 24-32H: an IP of 375 bopd; 233 mcfpd.
  • The Kittleson Federal 34-23-1H: an IP of 564 bopd, 128 mcfpd. 
  • The Kittleson Federal 24-24-1H: an IP of 558 bopd, 45 mcfpd.
Continental Resources Inc. reported the completion of the Helen 3-19H in Richland County: IP was 642 bopd, 342 mcfpd. The well targets the Bakken Formation.

In Sheridan County, Marathon Oil Company filed a completion report for the Dave Clark 21-13H; the Three Forks Formation well reported an IP of 159 bopd, 74 mcfpd.

Amarillo Snowfall: Nearly Breaks the 1893 Mark; 19.1 Inches

NewsChannel10 is reporting:
She says the city's snowfall was the second-most in a 24-hour period, just behind the 19.3 inches that fell March 25, 1934. The storm that moved across the Texas Panhandle also was the third all-time snow event. The most snow in one event was 20.6 inches that fell March 25 and 26, 1934.
Scotten says Amarillo normally receives 17.8 inches of snow for the winter.
19.1 inches vs 19.3 inches. If this were the NFL, someone would throw the red flag, and want a re-measure.

The US has had a cold, snowy winter.  Southern Los Angeles to Denver to Amarillo and Kansas City to Boston.

Only Three (3) New Permits Today But Several Producing Wells Now Completed

Active rigs: 182 (steady)

Three (3) new permits --
Operators: OXY USA (2), Zenergy
Fields: Crooked Creek (Dunn), Glass Bluff(McKenzie)
Comments: well, that was easy.
Wells coming off confidential list were reported earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Producing wells that are now completed:
  • 21518, 710, CLR, Lawrence 5-13H, North Tioga, t1/13; cum --
  • 23567, 356, Whiting, McNamara 42-26XH, Sanish, t1/13; cum --
  • 23060, 763, Hess, LK-M Elisabeth 147-97-1522H-4, Little Knife, t2/13; cum --
  • 23319, 1,271, BEXP, Porter 35-26 1TFH, Alexander, t1/13; cum --
  • 22619, 781, CLR, Sorenson 2-21AH, Alkali Creek, 4-section spacing; t2/13; cum --
  • 22971, 1,103, Whiting, Rodney Olson Federal 42-8-2TFH, t1/13; cum --
  • 22620, 946, CLR, Thronson 2-28AH, Alkali Creek, t2/13; cum --
  • 22618, 907, CLR, Thronson 1-28AH, Alkali Creek, t2/13; cum --
  • 23048, 606, CLR, Chicago 3-26H, Banks, t1/13; cum --
  • 21980, 569, CLR, Florida 1-11H, Camp, t1/13; cum --
The two Thronson wells are on the same 4-well pad as the Sorenson well.  The fourth well on that pad (#22617, another Sorenson well, is on DRL status). The four wells are long laterals on 4-section spacing.

Check Out These BNSF Figures -- As Provided By KFYR

KFYR is reporting:
"We knew that the Bakken was big. But like many people, we didn`t know exactly how big. But we ramped up very quickly and in accordance with what the customers were telling us and what the experts were telling us about how big the reserves were," said John Miller with BNSF.

BNSF started exporting crude oil from western North Dakota in 2008. It started carrying 1.3 million barrels a day. Within four years, its export volume jumped to 100 million barrels a day.

"We`re real pleased with the growth in crude oil by rail on BNSF. And we`re still excited about the growth for the future," Miller said.

2012 was a big year for rail in North Dakota. Exports increased by 36 percent. And the reason rail is having so much success is because trains can reach coastal refineries that will pay more for oil.
For newbies: North Dakota produces about 750,000 bbls of oil per day. 

Something tells me the story will be corrected. A "screenshot" has been taken, just in case.

How Big Is The Canadian Oil Sands -- Motley Fool

Link here to Motley Fool:

Data points:

Production estimates (one London firm) for the Canadian oil sands:
  • 1.7 million bopd in 2013
  • 4.2 million bopd in 2025
The Kesystone XL would accommodate about 800,000 bopd. Many, many story lines there.

Stock recommendations (for investors):
Tyler recommends Suncor Energy, the largest oil sands producer in Canada, and goes on to pitch ConocoPhillips, which has gone all-in with the Canadian oil sands. ConocoPhillips will spend a large portion of its 2013 capex there through joint ventures with Total.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read at this site.

For Investors Only: Overview of Oasis, Year-End, 2012 -- Steve Zachritz -- Z Man

Link here to SeekingAlpha.com.

At the link:
Oasis Petroleum reported better than expected EIBTDA on pre-announced 4Q12 production. This is our pre-call note.

While 4Q12 production was pre-announced Oasis Petroleum exceeded consensus expectations for revenue and EBITDA and EBITDA per BOE hit $64.49 /BOE in the quarter, a new high. Strong cost control and contribution from the company's well completion segment offset sequentially lower oil prices (WTI averaged ~ $88 per barrel in the quarter, the lowest quarterly average of 2012). Moreover, given management's propensity for shying away from dilution, OAS recorded another new high in terms of production per share (see table at the bottom of this piece). While the name has risen from a 20 month sleepy period described in our last piece it continues to trade near its lows on an enterprise value to production basis (see graphs below).
And then this:
We often refer to Oasis as the "easiest to own name among the Bakken players". Costs continue to trickle lower and we expect 2013 to be a year of "beat and raise" as the quarters roll by. We continue to own the name as a top 5 ZLT position. On a forward TEV/EBITDA basis, the name trades at 5.8x 2013 estimated EBITDA and 4.4x 2014's number, which given the growth, the oiliness, and the resulting strong margins we find to continue to be appealing and augers for a move over the next 12 months above the $50 mark. 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here. 

RBN Energy: Back to the Future


Later, 10;04 am: just after posting the original post, Bernanke delivered "the Fed" speech. Very upbeat remarks for the market but this talking point: consumers are being hammered by high price of gasoline. Cue up Connie Francis.   

Original Post

I keep coming back to Canadian oil sands, $60; Bakken, $75 - $100; WTI, $100; Brent/OPEC: $120.

I think of the recent Oil Drum article: the Precautionary Principle.

And finally, this article: imports from Saudi Arabia increased in 2012.

Those three data points/articles came to mind when I saw the RBN Energy post today: bridge over troubled waters.
The Deepwater Horizon explosion in April 2010 effectively halted new drilling in the offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Between April 2010 and June 2012 production fell by 400 Mb/d.
At the same time the shale revolution led to increases in US production – up 790 Mb/d during 2012 – the largest annual increase on record. In the last quarter of 2012 GOM oil production began to recover and is forecast to increase to 1.5 MMb/d by the end of 2014. Today we look at the impact Macondo had on GOM crude production.
The April 20 2010 BP Macondo disaster had a momentous impact on the Gulf Coast regional crude oil production. The Federal government ordered a six-month moratorium on new deepwater drilling in US offshore waters (deepwater is considered to be greater than 500 feet deep). The moratorium also required existing permitted wells to stop drilling. The moratorium was lifted in October 2010 but it wasn’t until February 28, 2011 (314 days after Macondo) that the Interior Department approved the first new deep water drilling permit for an oil company.
[An aside: I remember blogging about the permitorium, the moratorium, and then the slow-rolling, receiving a lot of comments that I was wrong. RBN Energy summarizes that period very succinctly. Nice to see.]

Had there been no shale revolution during the events in the Gulf, things could be a lot worse. But the thing that jumps out at me, when drilling in the Gulf was shut down, there was no Plan B. The shale revolution was not a Plan B; it was simply fortuitous.
US crude oil production topped 6 MMb/d by the end of 2012 up by 790 Mb/d during the year - the largest increase in annual output on record. Most of that increase was in the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian basins. Prior to the shale revolution increases in US crude production between 2007 and 2010 came from offshore GOM fields.
The Macondo accident in April 2010 halted GOM crude production growth and it is only just beginning to recover. The recovery proves that deepwater drilling risks are still considered worth taking by producers. GOM offshore production may not be headline news like shale oil but it still represents 20 percent of US production and that number looks set to increase in the next two years.
By the way, that's an interesting data point: the GOM represents 20 percent of US production; the Bakken represents about 12 percent. 


Note to self: 76