Sunday, February 24, 2013

The Keystone: Alberta Premier Has a "Plan B" -- If The US Won't Approve It ... Well, There's Always Alaska

The Calgary Herald is reporting:
Alberta Premier Redford called the Keystone XL, which will extend from Alberta to heavy oil refineries in Houston and Port Arthur, Texas, a “very important” priority for Alberta. She said, however, that if U.S. President Barack Obama does not approve it, Alberta would seek other export opportunities, including going through Alaska.
Now I'm really confused. I knew US students were said to be weak on geography, but ... Canadian premiers? I'll bet Sarah "I Can See Russia From My House" Palin* is pulling out her copy of Rand McNally to see where Alaska is located.

I missed this the first time reading the article; "anon 1" picked up on it. Thank you. It made my day.


North to Alaska, Johnny Horton

*By the way, the "I can see Russia from my house" statement has a very, very interesting back story, too.

North Dakota Strong Even Without Oil -- Officials

The Bismarck Tribune is reporting:

Some data points:
  • For North Dakota, 2011: $6.5 billion in taxable sales and purchases
  • Manufacturing went from $500 million (2010) to $1 billion one year later (2011)
  • Agriculture: a $35 billion industry in North Dakota; technology responsible for growth in ag

  • For past several quarters, 
    • Williston has surpassed Fargo in total taxable sales and purchases
    • Minot is catching up with Bismarck in taxable sales and purchases

  • Oil produces 20% of state revenue

New Poll: Which Operator Has The "Big" Well Northwest of Watford City?

Time for a new poll, but first the results of the current poll (it is now closed):

With less than 35 laps to go, how many felt that Danica would finish the  race?
  • Yes, would finish: 42%
  • No, would not finish: 58%
Now, for the new poll.

Back on February 19, 2013, we learned that there may be a very, very exciting well about ready to report; it could be the second biggest well in North Dakota history.

The well is still confidential so most of us don't know which well that NDIC is watching with huge interest, but they say the well is northwest of Watford City. I listed the possible wells northwest of Watford City, but could not come to a real conclusion / guess which well it might be. Even guessing which operator was involved was impossible (at least for me).

So, time for a poll. Which operator do you think has the "big" well northwest of Watford City? Newfield, Slawson, or SM Energy? Other?

If you have "inside" information, or are privy to "confidential" information, you should not vote and should not comment. The well is still confidential according to the NDIC.


Thank goodness for the Daytona 500 earlier today, but I'm already having withdrawal:

Sunday Night NFL Theme, Faith Hill

What a great country.

Beating A Dead Horse?

Or maybe, better said, beating a dead pipeline.

On/about February 17, I posited the question, and then the suggestion that the singular reason for the soaring gasoline prices was the policy decision to kill Keystone XL 1.0 a year ago.

I posted a poll. About 30% agreed. I was surprised that many actually agreed. I expected closer to 99% to disagree.

Then earlier today, Don sent me a Bloomberg video where the question was raised.

Now, I see that The Oil Drum has said practically the very same thing: actions have consequences. Some excerpts:
With the occasional collapse of the odd wind turbine, and the difficulty in seeing how solar power can help in the blizzards and snow storms I have gone through in the last week, there is some concern over the size of the contribution that these technologies can make into the energy mix of the next decade.

In those circumstances, a wise application of the Precautionary Principle to future energy supplies in both Europe and the United States might suggest that sufficient legacy power systems be left in place to ensure that neither community is left short of energy in the years ahead. This is to guard against the proposed replacements being either inadequate or insufficient to meet the future need. [Comment: the writer might note that the math does not work for solar or wind, even under best of circumstances. Period. Dot. Folks need to quit being ambivalent about this fact.]

And yet, unfortunately, this is not likely to occur. As with many arguments and tools used in political debate, once a position or an argument has been adopted it is extremely rare for it to be renounced. The consequences of current decision making rarely come back to haunt those politicians who make them since they often occur past the current elective term and are thus of less interest to those who are more focused on the next election.

Yet longer-term events do eventually arrive, and time having passed, the day of reckoning is becoming visible. It is likely that the Bakken will peak before the end of the current Administration. Ofgem has already raised concerns over an over-reliance on imported natural gas into the UK, and warned of possible shortages by the end of 2015, and urged a diversification of supply types.

As President, [Obama] appointed Dr. Stephen Chu to head the Department of Energy, an individual who has said “Coal is my worst nightmare.” And to follow on his statement as a candidate, the President appointed Lisa Jackson to the EPA who issued a finding that greenhouse gases constitute a threat to public health and welfare, with a series of actions to reduce carbon pollution. In such a political climate it is unlikely that applications for new mines and plants will receive an accelerated resolution. (Just consider the case of decision on the Keystone Pipeline, which continues to drag on.) If there is a sudden discovered need for new coal and nuclear power plants they will not be there to answer that call, and nor can they be for over a decade after the call is made. 
Absolutely incredible.

The dots continue to connect. Actions have consequences.

Wells Coming Off Confidential; No Sign Of Fracking Problems: Look At IPs/Production;Two Typical OXY Wells; Interesting Siting for Three EOG Wells; Huge QEP Well; Oasis With Four Huge Wells (70K in < 4 Months); Both Middle Bakken & Upper Three Forks For Oasis

Monday, February 25, 2013
22560, drl, Petro-Hunt, Fort Berthold 148-94-21A-20-1H, Eagle Nest
23262, drl, BR, Mesa Verde 44-22MBH, Clear Creek,
23406, 57, True Oil, Hagen Federal 41-25 25-30H, Red Wing Creek, check spacing size; t1/13; cum-

Sunday, February 24, 2013
21077, 0, Whiting, BSMU 1707, Big Stick, a Madison well; t11/12; but not dry
21913, 138, OXY USA, Bill Cody 1-20-29H-141-96, St Anthony, t8/12; cum 8K 12/12;
22028, 2,737, QEP, MHA 2-32-29H-150-91, Heart Butte, check spacing unit size;** t11/12; cum 31K 12/12;
22812, 202, CLR, Flying W 1-25H, Blacktail, t12/12; cum 3K 12/12;
22927, 262, CLR, Butch 1-29H, Stoneview, t12/12; cum 3K 12/12;
23277, 2,000, Newfield, Darlene Federal 152-97-13-24-3H, Westberg, t1/13; cum --

Saturday, February 23, 2013
20577, 1,886, EOG, Bear 19-2116H, Spotted Horn, well in middle of spacing unit; unusual location;* t9/12; cum 44K 12/12;
20578, 1,667, EOG, Bear Den 18-21H, Spotted Horn, well in middle of spacing unit; unusual location;* t9/12; cum 62K 12/12;
21680, 800, Liberty Resources, Nygaard 150-101-28-33-1H, Pronghorn, t9/12; cum 56K 12/12;
21688, 957, EOG, Bear Den 103-21H, Spotted Horn, well in middle of spacing unit; unusual location;* t9/12; cum 46K 12/12;
22150, 503, OXY USA, Richard Jablonsky 1-13-24H-141-97, St Anthony, t8/12; cum 15K 12/12;
22303, 1,952, Oasis, Thomas S 5300 41-12B, Crazy Man Creek, t10/12; cum 70K 12/12;
22304, 1,364, Oasis, Celia S 5300 41-12T, Crazy Man Creek, t10/12; cum 43K 12/12;
22347, 2,621, Oasis, Basey 5300 44-12T, Crazy Man Creek, t9/12; cum 54K 12/12;
22348, 2,661, Oasis, Kovars 5300 44-12B, Crazy Man Creek, t9/12; cum 48K 12/12;
22401, 876, Liberty Resources, Lukenbill 155-101-11-2-1H, Cow Creek, t9/12; cum 53K 12/12; a nice well, see below
22714, drl, BEXP, D D 26-35 1H, Squires,
22929, 1,898, BEXP, Vachal 3-34 2TFH,  Alger, t12/12; cum 10K 12/12;
23192, 1,085, Hess, BL-Myrtrice-156-96-2536H-1, Beaver Lodge,  t12/12; cum 23K 12/12; great well, see below
23404, 856, XTO, Unni 21X-27B, Midway, t12/12; cum 9K 12/12;
23472, 1,734, QEP/Helis, P. Levang 4-14/23H, Blue Buttes, great well; t11/12; cum 45K 12/12;

 22303, 1,952, Oasis, Thomas S 5300 41-12B, Crazy Man Creek, t10/12; cum 70K 12/12 (representative of the Oasis wells on this pad); note how fast it was hooked up to gas line:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

23472, 1,734, QEP/Helis, P. Levang 4-14/23H, Blue Buttes, great well; within a month or so, on a NG pipeline

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

23192, 1,085, Hess, BL-Myrtrice-156-96-2536H-1, Beaver Lodge, great well; already on gas line:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

22401, 876, Liberty Resources, Lukenbill 155-101-11-2-1H, Cow Creek, a nice well; not a gas line, yet:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

21689, conf, Bear Den 10402116H, Spotted Horn, also a great well:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold


*Wells sited in unusual position, in the Spotted Horn oil field.

This has been commented on before at other blogs, I believe. EOG is putting in some short laterals (640 acres on 1280-acre spacing). Three of four wells on one pad are on the Saturday list above. In addition, in the spacing unit immediately to the west there are four more such wells (short laterals on 1280-acre spacing)
  • 23267, drl, EOG, Bear Den 17-16H, Spotted Horn, short lateral on 1280-acre spacing; runs north
  • 23268, drl, EOG, Bear Den 25-16H, Spotted Horn, short lateral on 1280-acre unit; runs north
  • 23269, 1,607, EOG, Bear Den 24-1621H, Spotted Horn, t8/13; cum 96K 11/13; short lateral on 1280-acre unit; runs south;
  • 23270, drl, EOG, Bear Den 8-1621H, Spotted Horn, short lateral on 1280-acre unit; runs south;
  • 20577, see above
  • 20578, see above
  • 21688, see above
  • 21689, conf, Bear Den 10402116H, Spotted Horn, also a great well; see above
Just to the west of these eight wells, is a 2560-acre spacing unit, L-shaped, with a 2-well pad:
  • 19157, 1,476, EOG, Bear Den 04-20H, short lateral; one section spacing; t3/11; cum 141K 12/12;
  • 23063, drl, EOG, Bear Den 100-2017H, 1280-acre spacing,
and a 4-well pad with a splayed arrangement:
  • 19170, 1,882, EOG, Bear Den 07-17H, short lateral, 640-acre spacing; t1/11; cum 127K 12/12/
  • 23064, drl, EOG, Bear Den 108-1708H, long lateral,
  • 23065, drl, EOG, Bear Den 20-1708H, long lateral,
  • 23066, drl, EOG, Bear Den 102-1708H, long lateral
It's not as simply as a direct one-to-one ratio, but some might argue that an IP of 2,000 for a short lateral equates to an IP of 4,000 for a long lateral. 

** Meanwhile, over in Heart Butte, a 4-well pad with two wells running north on a "long, narrow" 640-acre spacing unit (actually still ICO); and two wells running southeast on a "long, narrow" 640-acre spacing unit:
  • 20487, 606, QEP, MHA 1-04-03H-149-91, t11/11; cum 127K 12/12; running southeast,
  • 20488, 1,571, QEP, MHA 3-04-03H-149-91, t11/11; cum 173K 12/12; running southeast,
  • 20489, 933, QEP, MHA 3-32-29-150-91, t11/11; cum 110K 12/12; running north,
  • 20490, 2,609, QEP, MHA 1-32-29H-150-91, t11/11; cum 215K 12/12; running north,

This data (spacing units for these wells could be incorrect; it's based on GIS map server and scout tickets; need to confirm with well files when they become available).

Global Warming To Clobber The Midwest -- Again

Weather Channel is reporting:
As we start the new workweek, Winter Storm Rocky will target the snow-weary Plains and Midwest. 
And so it goes. Follows on Winter Storm Q.

Sunday (today) -- Denver: 6 to 12 inches of new snow. Blizzard warnings are in effect for eastern Colorado.

Monday / Monday night:
Parts of Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and northwest Missouri once again have the potential to see some of the heaviest accumulations with 6 to 12 inches likely, and the potential for over 12 inches in some places.
One can find the Weather Channel winter storm names here; if there is another winter storm, it will be "Saturn" followed by "Triton" and "Ukko."

Connect The Dots

Maybe I will expand on this later, but getting ready for the Daytona 500, so more blogging will have to wait.

However, you might all have fun connecting the dots between these two links.

The first link: Mike Filloon's analysis of the Mississippi Lime -- the wells are getting better.

The second link: Acorn Energy's presentation at Enercom.

It goes without saying that once you connect the dots, you will agree that what is happening in the Mississippi Lime will hold true for the Bakken. (Actually, it's already been proven true over the past few years.)

Wow, Wow, Wow -- Bloomberg -- February 22 -- Is The Price of Gasoline Tied To the Keystone Pipeline?

The whole video is interesting.

Someday the link will be broken: this was the URL:

But go to 2:30 at the video: expert suggested that gasoline and Keystone XL related. Incredible. Absolutely incredible. The comment was thrown out and quickly passed over. And then, finally at 4:00 minutes they get back to the Keystone XL.

Now, go back to my poll. Wow. I'm glad to see the Bloomberg folks are reading the MDW. This is the first time I've seen a mainstream media discussion suggesting the singular reason for the soaring gasoline price was the policy decision to kill the Keystone XL 1.0 pipeline one year ago.

By the way, one of the talking heads, one of the males, completely misspoke when he suggested the glut at Cushing was the reason for the high price of gasoline. Or at least I'm missing his line of reasoning. At least two of the three talking heads thought oil would be down to $85 by now and headed toward $70, mostly because of the expectation that Canadian oil sands at huge discount (currently discounted as much as $60 to Brent) would be reaching the US gulf coast heavy oil refineries by now.

Results of the poll.
Background to the poll.
The poll -- February 17, 2013 -- a full week before Bloomberg asks the very same question. The very same question.

A big "thank you" to Don for finding this video and sending the link this way.

Webcasts: Enercom Conference, February 19 - 21

When I first started blogging about the Bakken, I thrived on the Enercom conference webcasts. Now there is so much information coming out of the Bakken (and out of North America, for that matter), that it almost becomes overwhelming. Scratch that "almost." It has become overwhelming.

However, "anon 1" has provided the link: Enercom Conference.

The following are minor notes for my use; not to be used by others; subject to errors, misinterpretation; visit the linked site and access the corporate presentations; I assume the presentations will be posted for about a month before they disappear.

Raymond James provides overview:
  • slide 2: global oil demand is sputtering; stocks are tracking with oil; natural gas will get better
  • slide 3: our 2013 demand projection: 300 - 500K below consensus; US oil supply growth is screaming higher -- our 2013 supply projection: 200K - 500K above consensus; global oil inventories max out in next 6 - 12 months; key issues: Saudi, Mideast geopolitics, global economy
  • slide 4:  oil supply forecast Raymond James under-forecast; EIA really, really underforecast
  • slide 13: supply vs demand; Japan is key to 2013
  • slide 15: global oil inventory hits record highs in 2013; graphic is quite graphic
  • slide 16: Saudi must cut; Saudi has already cut 1 million bopd; Raymond James thinks Saudi must cut more before year 2013; provides reasons why Saudi might not cut
  • slide 18: how much OPEC needs to cut in 2014
  • slide 19: what solves structural oil problems -- lower oil prices
  • slide 20: WTO disconnect choppy but sustainable
  • slide 34: outlook for oil independence -- RJ says to pay attn to this graph
Triangle Petroleum:
McKenzie County, core - 22,000 net acres, 2 rigs; Williams County, core/other -- 14,000 net acres; Montana/Station Prospect -- 50,000 net acres; Rockpile will add a 2nd frack spread; sand storage/rail off-loading/maintenance facility able to support 3 - 4 frack spreads; expanding into cased hole wireline services, operational by 2Q14; Caliber Midstream pipeline
Acorn: "the digital energy company"
provides history of evolution from 2D to 4D seismic; graph showing cost of replacing each barrel of oil (from around $7.50/bbl in 1998 to around $27.50/bbl in 2011); the graph regarding effectiveness of fracking is incredible: 20% of frack stages produce 80% of the oil/natural gas; 50% of frack stages produce zero oil/natural gas; the most effective play: the Barnett shale at 47% (total sample of 11 plays: 24%); Permian Basin - 22%; Eagle Ford - 21%; Bakken 30%. Of the oil plays, it looks like Bakken is among the best with regard to fracking effectiveness (slide 10); "stark difference" between a good well and a bad well (slide 11); #1 reason for poor frack: failure to understand subsurface (and that's why 4D seismic so important); revolutionary fiber sensor emerged from DOD (nice picture of US submarine, slide 16)
Emerald Oil:
continuous 1-rig drilling program; will drill 10 gross/7.5 net-operated wells in 2013; slide 7: repeats Harold Hamm's assertion that there are 24 billion bbls technically recoverable oil from the middle Bakken and upper Three Forks plays (note the wording); 51,000 net acres in the Bakken (MT and ND); core area in McKenzie and Dunn counties; EOX at $6/share ~ $2,000/net Bakken acre vs the peer group average of ~$9,000/net Bakken acre

Six-Million-Dollar Hotel Almost Complete in North Dakota's Coal Country

The Bismarck Tribune is reporting:
Stanton, you will hardly recognize your old school building when a $6 million transformation into a worker hotel is complete. 
The change from a ’50s-era building with long classroom wings into a hotel with front desk, 91 rooms, professional laundry, television lounge and lunch room is way beyond minor plastic surgery, and a lot faster.
Industrial Contractors Inc., of Bismarck, and its parent company, API Group, put the project on a very fast track starting in December.
The company purchased the building this fall to provide a local and stable housing source for the itinerant workers who come from all over for maintenance outages in Coal Country.
The linked article has a lot more about this project. It's quite incredible.

And it's not part of the Bakken.


Making the rounds. If "owner" of this photo wants credit, let me know, or if it needs to be removed from the blog, let me know.