Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Blogging; Bailing Hay To Feed Sheep For the Coyotes To Eat

Because I am now back to taking care of our granddaughters full time, my pattern of blogging has changed a big. I am able to post first thing in the morning, uninterrupted, but then almost nothing all day long, until later in the evening.

It is impossible to keep up with all the earnings reports during earnings season, even during the best of times, but when devoting quality time to a seven-year-old and a ten-year-old, it makes it even more difficult. So, links to earnings will be hit and miss. Let me know if I miss anything really important.

I did miss the new high for the Dow today; I find that incredible. I guess all the speeches by Mr Obama on his plans to help the rich and the poor (while pretty much hammering the middle class) seems to be helping the market. The rich should get a break with the 28% corporate tax and the poor will get ... well, whatever they ever get. I guess in this case, ObamaCare.

And now, even after that news about the Dow today, I see futures are up huge right now. Of course, I doubt that will last, but it is interesting to say the least.

Part of the reason, of course, is because analysts now see the Great Recession was never as bad as the GOP made it out to be. It was actually pretty mild, I guess, as recessions go. Thank goodness for all that stimulus money. And, of course, re-calculating GDP probably helped a lot, also. It's nice to be able to re-write history, especially while history is still being made. There's a great western song with the hook, "a legend in his own time."

But "it's hard to be humble" is even better.

It's Hard To Be Humble, Mac Davis

Seriously, back to the Bakken. Have you all seen the incredible wells EOG is reporting? If this is due to their new completion technique, things are going to be changing in the Bakken. Can you say "ceramics"? You may not have to next year.

EOG will report another well with 100,000 bbls of oil in the first three or four months of production. The Oil Drum's last post is supposedly today or tomorrow. Fitting.

People still don't understand the flaring issue in the Bakken. Dry natural gas production in the Bakken is like GM's problem with the Volt. GM loses about $5,000 on every Volt they sell, but they feel good about selling 'em. Bakken operators can sell natural gas for $3.00/unit (whatever a standard unit of natural gas is). Unfortunately it costs an operator $5.00/unit to hook up the natural gas pipeline (running a single pipeline a gazillion miles to a remote well, and then selling it ONEOK for processing before it can be put in the national pipeline, to be sold at a loss (again, we are talking about dry natural gas, not liquids; that's another story. Remember, natural gas cannot simply be put into a pipeline like crude oil can.).

This all reminds me of a great little book that I bought (and read) many years ago: Today I Bailed Some Hay to Feed the Sheep the Coyotes Eat.

I would continue, but I'm at the end of my battery -- I forgot to keep it charged during the day -- and I don't have my charger with me.

Good luck to all.  Listen to Mac Davis at the video above.

This Is Really Bad News For Mr Obama's Legacy; Happy Days Are Here Again

The Wall Street Journal is reporting the Great Recession was not all that bad. Like the government actions after the 2010 spill in the Gulf of Mexico, one wonders if government actions actually made things worse in the long run?
The U.S. economy expanded at a stronger pace in 2012 than previously measured and the great recession was less severe, new data from the Commerce Department shows.
The country’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, expanded at a 2.8% pace last year versus a previous estimate of 2.2%, due to periodic revisions released Wednesday by the agency’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The figures also show the 2007 to 2009 recession was less severe than previously thought, with the economy shrinking at an average annual 2.9% pace, compared with the previously reported 3.2% contraction. The recession stretched, officially, from December 2007 through June 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, which determines the widely accepted benchmarks for U.S. business cycles.
Happy days are here again.

Maybe that's why Dow futures look to stun tomorrow. 

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Thursday; EOG Has Another Incredible Well; Oasis Has A Nice Well

If these phenomenal EOG wells are the result of their new completion techniques, this will be very, very interesting.
  • 20633, 1,236, EOG, Fertile 53-3024H, Parshall, t2/13; cum 405K 7/17;
  • 22213, 1,732, WPX, George Evans 14-23HD, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 296K 7/17;
  • 23531, 1,597, Oasis, K A Sutton Federal 5300 24-15T, Willow Creek, t3/13; cum 175K 7/17;
  • 24639, SI/NC, Thunderbird Resources LP/GMX Resources, Fairfield State 21-16-2H, Whitetail/St Demetrius, no data

20633, see above, EOG, Fertile 53-3024H, Parshall:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

23531, see below, Oasis, K A Sutton Federal 5300 24-15T, Willow Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Dow Futures Look Awesome

Because I don't have television in the new apartment, I missed this: I guess the Dow hit a new all-time high today.

Futures don't mean squat, but even with that all-time high today, I see Dow futures are up an incredible 67 points right now, and oil is up another 50 cents, about $105.50. I sure hope President O'Bama is not scheduled to speak tomorrow. Well, actually I do. I am a long-term investor and all my dividends are automatically reinvested. I prefer a falling market some days. Smile.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you might have read here.

This Has To Be One Of The Longest Stretches With WTI > $100 In Quite Some Time; We Will Miss The Oil Drum

It is amazing what happens when the industry alleviates the choke point at Cushing.

I believe July 31, 2013, was supposed to be the last day for The Oil Drum, the peak oil web site but there were a heck of a lot of articles posted at that site today, including:
  • British gas profits during winter chill
  • Canada's economy expands in May as retail offsets oil
  • Bakken shale will keep OPEC on its toes
  • Small firms, not big guns drive Bakken shale
  • Iraq headed for first annual drop in oil output in three years (this is huge, folks)
  • "Why the peak oilers are still right"
  • Three (3) reasons peak oil might not be such a big deal -- LOL
  • Lawyer who sued Chevron in Ecuador is now being sued by Chevron
  • England looking more and more that it will frack
  • Radioactive Japanese sea -- this will never end
By the way, I missed this one from The Oil Drum from two days ago, an update of the "Red Queen." Lots of graphs. My hunch is two people will read the entire essay. One person might understand it. I think this question and the author's reply was priceless.  

The question:
Do you have any numbers on how many wells have already been plugged and abandoned in the Bakken Play since 2008?
The answer:
As of now I do not have data on any number of wells plugged and abandoned in Bakken since 2008.
Of the wells I studied with full time series that started as from January 2010, I found no well getting plugged and abandoned as of May 2013.
The fact is, almost NO Bakken wells have been plugged and abandoned. Some weeks ago I looked at the first several hundred Bakken wells looking for plugged and abandoned wells and quit that exercise because it became pointless. 

For all his data and all his analysis, I find it incredible, this analyst did not even have such basic information as that -- how many Bakken wells that have been plugged and abandoned. And if he ever posts that data, he has to separate out those that were never drilled to planned total depth, such as the Oasis well reported this month that was drilled to 3,000; developed problems, and they simply cut their losses, plugged and abandoned it, and moved on. But it will be called a plugged and abandoned Bakken well, when in fact, it wasn't. It wasn't even a well. It was a shallow hole.

Wow, This Is Cool....And Something Tells Me The Mainstream Media Has Not Said A Word

ClimateDepot is reporting:
  • 1,122 record cold temps in the U.S. in one week 
  • July in the USA ends on a frigid note as record cold outpaces warmth nearly 10 to 1 
  • 71% of he US below normal temperature in 2013 
  • South America in massive deep freeze 
Wow, global warming ended 15 years ago ("paused" as the activist scientists like to put it) but now it appears we aren't even pausing; we're actually getting cooler. 

I do not recall the "mainstream media" mentioning that South America was in a massive deep freeze.

Note the "global warming" tag has moved to the "new" climate year, 2013 - 2014.

Greece Is Playing The EU; This Really Is Quite Incredible: IMF: Greek Bailout Not Big Enough, Needs Another $14.6 Billion By End of 2015.

Sounds a lot like Mr O'Bama; never enough money.

And the outlook could be even worse -- if the IMF/Greece assumptions are too optimistic.

Well, you know that will happen. You really believe that Greece will meet targets by 2015. LOL.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
Greece faces an additional financing shortfall of nearly €11 billion ($14.6 billion) by the end of 2015, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, warning that the gap could be bigger if growth falls short of estimates.
That figure is higher than earlier euro-zone projections, and combined with the IMF's estimate of the amount of debt relief Athens needs, could force Europe to cover any extra financing needed to keep Greece afloat, including potential write-offs of rescue loans extended to Greece over the past three years, in order to make the country's debt load sustainable.
That puts the IMF at odds with the euro zone's strongest member, Germany, where the government is avoiding talk of debt reductions and new Greek loans ahead of elections in September.
But if the Germans don't mind paying for the Greeks and their vacations, that's fine with me; I have no dog in this fight. This is simply here for archival purposes.

Greek GDP: $290 billion (2011) and probably less now. Several US companies have market caps greater than Greek's GDP, including General Electric at $250 billion.

What an incredible basket case, and the Germans keep paying for this craziness. And the Greeks do this without nuclear missiles, the preferred method for North Koreans to extract concessions from the West.

Montana Completions

From the FairfieldSunTimes:

In Powder River County’s Bell Creek Field, Denbury Onshore, LLC, filed completion reports for three wells, all tapping the Muddy Formation. The BCUD 5614R with a total depth of 4,850 feet; the Bell Creek Consolidated 33-14R with a total depth of 4,765 feet; and, the Bell Creek Consolidated 04-03OW, with a total depth of 2,604 feet. No Initial Potential (IP) numbers were reported.

In Richland County, Whiting Oil and Gas Corporation reported the completion of the Christiansen 34-12-1H. The Bakken well reported an IP of 403 bopd.

In Roosevelt County, Oasis Petroleum North America LLC reported the completion of two Bakken Formation wells.
  • The Disco 2959 13-30H reported an IP of  735 bopd.
  • The Dave T 2958 13-25H reported an IP of 1,361 bopd.
Two completion reports were filed for Teton County wells by Primary Petroleum Company USA, Inc.
  • The Rockport 16-19-27-6HZ tapped the Potlatch Anhydrite
  • The Rockport 14-19-27-6HZ is targeting the Nisku Formation
No IP numbers were reported for the wells.


In Wibaux County’s Pine Field, Denbury Onshore, LLC filed completion reports for four wells, all tapping the Siluro-Ordovician.
  • Unit 22-33 has a total depth of 9,640 feet and reported an IP of 2 bopd (no typo)
  • Unit 24-19 has a total depth of 9,750 feet and reported an IP of 14 bopd (no typo)
  • South Pine Unit 33-30 has a total depth of 9,624 feet and reported an IP of 2 bopd (no typo)
  • Unit 42-31 has a total depth of 9,900 feet and reported an IP of 180 bwpd (no oil) -- no typo.

MDU Earnings: Beat By One Cent

Press release here.
  • Adjusted earnings per share of 25 cents compared to 17 cents last year, 47 percent increase
  • GAAP earnings per share of 24 cents compared to 29 cents last year
  • E&P adjusted earnings improved 66 percent with oil production growth of 37 percent construction business improves earnings 39 percent and reports higher backlog of $1.2 billion
  • natural gas utility sees 14 percent increase in sales
  • electric utility has 4 percent growth in retail sales
  • pipeline and energy services group diesel topping plant construction well underway

Random Note On Ten (10) Oasis Wells Sited In Cottonwood Field, Burke County, 30-158-92

It appears:
  • #19628 is on a single pad.
  • #25900, 25307 - 25310 (five wells) are on one pad.
  • #25723 - 25724 (four wells) are on one pad.
The wells:
  • 19628, 774, Oasis, Paradise 5892 11 -30H, Cottonwood; middle Bakken, t7/11; cum 94K 5/13;
  • 25726, drl, Oasis, Mahaila 5892 21-30H; Enget Lake; middle Bakken
  • 25725, drl, Oasis, Jase 5892 21-30T; Enget Lake; Three Forks
  • 25724, drl, Oasis, Barnes 5892 21-30B; Enget Lake; middle Bakken
  • 25723, drl, Oasis, Rivera 5892 21-30T; Enget Lake; Three Forks
  • 25310, drl, Oasis, Harvey 5892 21-30B; Cottonwood; middle Bakken
  • 25309, drl, Oasis, Gasser 5892 21-30T; Cottonwood; Three Forks
  • 25308, drl, Oasis, Norris 5892 21-30B; Cottonwood; middle Bakken
  • 25307: DRY, Oasis, Cottle 5892 21-30X; Cottonwood; Three Forks (the well file says "DRY" for #25307); 
  • from the file: A TD of 2,247' was reached yielding unnaceptable displacements from wellhead. The existing hole wasP & A'd with cement to approximately 60'. Oasis Petroleum intends to permanently P&A surface hole by filling the exsting casing to surface cutting casing 3' below grade, and capping the abandoned wellbore.
  • 25900: drl, Oasis, Cottle 5892 21-30T; Cottonwood; Three Forks

The Cottonwood wells will run west to east (30-158-92 -->29-158-92)
The Enget Lake wells will run east to west (30-158-92 -->25-158-93)

Eleven (11) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

Rise in price of oil today was impressive. Sweet.

Active rigs: 180

Eleven (11) new permits --
  • Operators: XTO (3), Whiting (2), BR (2), MRO (2), Statoil, QEP
  • Fields: Grinnell (Williams), Camel Butte (McKenzie), St Anthony (Dunn), Moccasin Creek (Dunn), Rosebud (Williams), Grail (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Bakken Excerpt From Hess 2Q13 Earnings Report; Costs Down; Production Up

Results are starting to reflect what we've been saying all along -- costs are decreasing; production is increasing; from the press release:
Bakken: Net production from the Bakken oil shale play averaged 64,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter of 2013, an increase of 16 percent from the same period last year. Full year Bakken production guidance remains 64,000 to 70,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. During the quarter, Hess brought 42 operated wells on production, bringing the year-to-date total to 72 wells. Drilling and completion costs per operated well averaged $8.4 million in the second quarter of 2013, an improvement of 28 percent versus last year’s second quarter.

Hess Reports Earnings

Press release here:
Hess Corporation today reported net income of $1,431 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2013. Adjusted earnings, which excludes the gain on sale of our Russian subsidiary and other items affecting comparability, were $520 million or $1.51 per common share. Net cash provided by operating activities was $1,247 million in the second quarter.

Absolutely Amazing How Storage Can Increase So Quickly At Cushing -- CBR And New Pipelines

EIA oil atats: crude dn 400k b, but Cushing dn 1.9 mil b. Distillates down 500k, gasoline up 800k. Runs dn 1 pct point to 91.3%.

Price of oil: up 50 cents; reversing downward trend.

Trending today:
  • GDP not a good number, though it could have been worse
  • China says they will keep their economy humming 
  • everything points to continued Fed stimulus
  • market responds - now up almost 100 points

An Inconvenient Truth

Three days ago I posted: the gap will widen.

And now confirms:
The president has been decrying the growing gap between rich and poor in the U.S. to help sell his retread tax-and-spend proposals. But those policies have already produced record levels of income inequality.
In his speech in Illinois last week, and at events since, Obama described income inequality in the starkest terms. "This growing inequality is morally wrong," he said, and "undermines the very essence of America."
To be sure, income inequality is a standard trope for liberals, who always use it to advocate more wealth redistribution.
And Obama's latest focus neatly coincides with his plans to push for more federal spending and taxes on the "rich" in coming budget battles.
But what Obama conveniently leaves out of his sermons is that income inequality has grown faster on his watch than any time in the past two decades, at least.
For investors, Mr O'Bama is the gift that keeps on giving. 

Incredible How Little Facts Are Omitted By Mainstream Media

This was the headline today: GDP surges! Up 1.7% from last month's dismal 1.1%.

In fact, last month's initial reading was 1.8%. Had that remained unchanged, today's GDP would have actually shown a decline in GDP from 1.8% to 1.7%.

But, the revised GDP for last month was a dismal 1.1%.

It will be interesting to see the revised GDP number next month, and how it is reported.

Two quarters of less than 2% growth suggests movement toward a recession.

Tomorrow we will see the fictional weekly jobless report.

And Friday, the equally fictitious monthly unemployment number. I can hardly wait.

As I mentioned to a reader via e-mail, my non-Bakken highlight of the week is seeing how the mainstream media reports the jobless numbers.

I was wondering why the market took off today: the Fed can't use today's numbers to argue for tapering.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site; do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or what you think you may have read here.

The Great Gatsby -- And Where He Is Buried

I always get a kick out of the timing of some posts. Earlier this morning I posted some data regarding the housing needs projection for the Bakken oil patch. I hinted where the data was presented.

Now, a reader sends me a link to an article which provided that answer in a very unexpected way.

At the second link, which is about The Great Gatsby (and still playing in Williston):
My favorite scene in the movie - blink hard and you will miss it - is the scene of the dirt poor life of early 20th century North Dakota that James Gatz came from before he re-styled himself as Jay Gatsby of West Egg on Long Island, New York. The location of Gatsby's boyhood North Dakota upbringing was not an invention of the film, like hip-hop music in the 1920's. It is in the Fitzgerald novel. Fitzgerald himself was from Minnesota where he likely had heard stories of the extreme poverty and brutal climate of western North Dakota.
History teaches that times and fortunes change, and times and fortunes have changed a lot in North Dakota. Recently, at the University Club in downtown Chicago, more than a dozen North Dakota business leaders spoke at the Opportunities in North Dakota and the Bakken Summit. Topics included oil and gas, real estate, and service businesses. Wow, Mr Gatsby, if you could see North Dakota now.
This is a must-read article. Of course, I wouldn't post anything about the Bakken that isn't a must-read, would I?

A big "thank you" to the reader for sending me this link/story. I had seen the headline earlier but had not visited the site until I got that note.

A Note To The Granddaughters

By the way, I don't recall reading The Great Gatsby in high school or college. I read it for the first time about three years ago. In fact, I read it a couple of times; I don't think I really "got it" the first time I read it. I was always fascinated by "West Egg." Oh, yes, that reminds me. I was in my F. Scott Fitzgerald phase. I was trying to remember why I would have read The Great Gatsby. But that was it. I was in my F. Scott Fitzgerald phase, reading bios of him and Zelda. I think I've talked about Zelda before on this blog. Oh, yes. Here it is. I won't repeat.

For those who are interested in a bit of trivia, here's an interesting story on where F. Scott Fitzgerald is buried:
F. Scott Fitzgerald, the author of The Great Gatsby, was born in St. Paul, Minn.; he's associated with that city, as well as Paris, the Riviera and New York. But he's buried in Rockville, Md., outside Washington, D.C., next to a highway between strip malls and train tracks.
At the time of his death, Fitzgerald considered himself a failure. After the Great Depression, readers and publishers were no longer interested in tales of the Jazz Age, and he was hard-pressed to find his novels on bookstore shelves.
When he died unexpectedly before Christmas in 1940, Fitzgerald's wife and his lawyer arranged for his body to be sent from California to Maryland, to be buried next to his father in a family plot at St. Mary's Catholic Church.

Wednesday Morning Links, News, And Views -- Part II -- More Evidence Of Global Warming -- Economy At "Stall Speed" And Not Responding -- One Million Fewer People Will Get Employer-Health Insurance In 2013 -- Best Laptop For College-Bound Student: MacBook Air

Evidence of more global warming, I guess:
Wisconsin Energy beats by $0.06, beats on revs: Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.52 per share, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.46; revenues rose 7.2% year/year to $1.01 bln vs the $0.96 bln consensus.
Strong natural gas sales during a cooler than normal spring and the impact of the company's share repurchase program were positive factors contributing to our solid results for this year's second quarter," said Gale Klappa, chairman, president and chief executive officer. "A cool June, however, significantly reduced demand for air conditioning across the region," Klappa added. "By comparison, June temperatures last year were much warmer than normal."
And that wasn't a "one-off." Here at the WSJ's "Heard on the Street":
It just isn't a great summer for natural-gas bulls. For starters, it isn't hot enough. This week is typically among the hottest of the year, but forecasts suggest it will be 18% cooler than normal in the U.S., according to analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
WSJ Links

Walter Mossberg compares Google's new Chromecast with Apple TV.  Bottom line:
If you're an all-Apple household with $99 to spare, AirPlay and Apple TV work great. But, if you want a less costly solution that works with all your devices across platforms, and can wait while Google gradually gets more apps to adopt it, Chromecast is a winner.
What's the best laptop for a college-bound student? Q&A from Walter Mossberg:
Based on your criteria, I'd recommend, without hesitation, the latest edition of Apple's MacBook Air, which is light, sturdy, thin, fast and gets over 10 hours of battery life on a single charge.
Maybe no recession, but certainly at stall speed
Here is the stuff of nightmares: You are piloting a plane that is losing altitude and not responding.
As the Federal Reserve concludes a two-day meeting Wednesday, it may be presented with fresh data hinting at such a calamity for the U.S. economy. First-class passengers like Mr. Stock Market appear blithely unaware as they enjoy a complimentary beverage. Those crammed in coach are starting to feel some bumps.
The economy isn't in a recession, but it will probably remain near what economists call "stall speed" following Wednesday's report on second-quarter gross domestic product. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires see annualized growth of just 0.9%—tied for the second-lowest level of the expansion.
That follows growth of 1.8% and 0.4% in the previous two quarters. Growth below 2% for multiple quarters is thought to heighten the risk of recession.
President O'Bama offers deal on corporate tax. Beware young, angry men bearing gifts. If it's all that great of a deal, it should have been offered five years ago.

Smart College, Kentucky, reaps $250 million donation; one of the largest in US higher-education history:
Tiny Centre College in rural Danville, Ky., said Tuesday it received a gift believed to be worth $250 million in stock from the A. Eugene Brockman Charitable Trust, one of the largest gifts in U.S. higher-education history.
The gift, which consists entirely of stock in closely held Universal Computer Systems Holding Inc., likely breaks the record for gift-giving to liberal-arts colleges, according to a list maintained by the Chronicle of Higher Education. It tops a $200 million gift given to Claremont McKenna College in 2007. It also follows Michael Bloomberg's $350 million donation to Johns Hopkins University, making the Centre College gift the second-highest overall in 2012 and 2013. Among all donations since 1967, Mr. Bloomberg's ranks as No. 11 and the Brockman Trust's ranks as No. 19, according to the Chronicle.
Centre College officials said the money paves the way for 40 full-ride scholarships each year starting in 2014 for students majoring in science and economics. In just a few years, a significant share of the student body at the school, which will have a total enrollment of nearly 1,400 students this fall, will be Brockman Scholars. Tuition, room and board at Centre is $45,100 for the 2013-14 academic year.
With the US deficit at $16 trillion, the $12 billion cost incurred by delaying the employer-mandate is peanuts.
The Obama administration's move to delay a mandate on businesses to provide health coverage will mean $12 billion in lost tax revenue and additional costs, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
The nonpartisan CBO said one million fewer people will get employer coverage in 2014 as a result of the postponement, and half of those will turn to new government health-insurance exchanges or Medicaid for coverage.
Earlier this month, the Treasury Department said it was delaying for one year the enforcement of penalties that could be charged to employers with 50 or more people for not providing adequate health insurance in 2014. The department also delayed various reporting requirements.
Op-ed: Detroit as a business cluster. Reading the op-ed, I couldn't stop thinking Bakken, business cluster, opportunities.

Op-ed: the stock market beats GDP as economic bellwether. The initial quarterly numbers are usually wrong—and they're poor predictors of future economic growth. [Right on cue: as noted by the writer, the initial GDP for last month was revised downward to 1.1%; today's initial GDP is pegged at 1.7%. By the way, the government recently changed the way it calculated GDP, providing a bit of lift due to definitional changes.]

Williston Housing Needs Continue To Rise -- July, 2013, Assessment

In the most recent edition of The Williston Wire, there was yet another story about the debate on the need for continued/more temporary housing in Williams County.

One piece of data was sent to me by a reader from a banking conference held in a windy city east of Minneapolis, but west of New York City.

This is the projected housing demand for four counties in the oil patch over the next decade:

Current pent-up demand (need housing right now); again numbers rounded:
  • McKenzie County (Watford City): 3,000
  • Stark County (Dickinson): 1,500
  • Ward County (Minot): 3,500
  • Williams County (Williston): 5,000
2013 - 2023, additional demand
  • McKenzie County (Watford City): 2,000
  • Stark County (Dickinson): 10,000
  • Ward County (Minot): 9,000
  • Williams County (Williston): 25,000 (no typo)
Total demand through 2023
  • McKenzie County (Watford City): 5,000
  • Stark County (Dickinson): 12,000
  • Ward County (Minot): 13,000
  • Williams County (Williston): 31,000
The County has been working this issue since 2007. I remember a comment from a reader back in the 2009 time-period in which he said that the failure to react to the projections of housing needs at that time would continue to haunt us well into the boom.

Canada: CBR Vs Pipeline

During 2011, it was all about "approving the Keystone." Most of us had the feeling, including me, that the world, as we knew it, would come to an end if the Keystone was not approved.

During 2012, there were many, many articles, pro and con on the Keystone.

During early 2013, things seemed to be quieting down; not a lot of press; things seemed to be in a holding pattern, but in the past week or so, the logjam on news stories about moving Canadian oil seems to have broken.

This is at least the third story I've posted in the past week on moving Canadian oil. One almost gets the feeling everyone now knows how this will play out. 

RBN Energy:  Canadian rail vs pipeline.
New pipeline capacity from Cushing to the US Gulf Coast, expected online at the end of 2013 and early in 2014, will ease the congestion that has stranded a lot of Western Canadian crude in the Midwest. There will subsequently be more opportunity for Canadian oil sands crude to reach Gulf Coast refineries by pipeline. Yet at the same time Canadian bitumen producers, rail terminal operators and railroad companies are jointly developing unit train loading terminals in Alberta - including one announced yesterday by Kyera Corp and Kinder Morgan Energy Partners. These terminals plan to load Canadian crude for delivery to the Gulf by rail. Today we ask how rail can compete with pipelines on this route.
We have previously described growing Western Canadian heavy crude “bitumen” production and the challenges of getting it to market .  Bitumen production from oil sands is expected to increase from about 1.8 MMbd/ in 2012 to 3.6 MMbd/d in 2020 (source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers – CAPP). Oil sands crude is thick like treacle and difficult to move by pipeline because it doesn’t flow well. Yet the largest market for this heavy crude is over 2 thousand miles away from the production areas at US Gulf Coast refineries configured to process similar grades from Mexico and Venezuela . Travelling that kind of distance is most efficiently accomplished by pipeline. But to get heavy crude moving in a pipeline it has to be diluted with roughly 30 percent natural gasoline or condensate diluent to make “dilbit” crude. Diluent adds to the cost of pipeline transportation because it has to be hauled to the bitumen production site and  does not have the yield characteristics that heavy crude refiners need.
This is what RBN Energy suggests:
Our analysis suggests that producers believe that bitumen transport by rail could compete with pipelines on cost – provided that the most efficient rail movements are used. And that means using unit train loading and unloading terminals. It also means removing most of the diluent from the bitumen for rail transport to increase the payload of crude being transported. As we will see in the next episode in this series, Canadian producers are also working with railroads and terminal developers to minimize the cost of bitumen transportation from the wellhead to the rail terminal. The chart below from terminal operator Canexus’ Annual General Meeting presentation this past May (2013) indicates the comparative economics that can be achieved. 
The series will continue. 

So, What's The Price Of Rice In China? -- Wednesday Morning Links, News, And Views -- Part I

It seems like just yesterday that folks said the earth's population was running out of food, and that global warming was making things worse. So this story caught me by surprise: Asia's rice glut is expected to worse. The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
Asia is awash in rice, as favorable weather and government support for farmers combine to produce a bumper crop.
The glut is driving down prices for big rice importers in Africa and China. But consumers in some of the biggest rice-producing nations, including Thailand and India, are paying higher prices as surplus supplies sit in government warehouses. Asia's surplus will have little impact in the U.S., which produces different varieties of rice.
When traveling by train from New Delhi to neighboring states, a common sight in the countryside is rice piled high on wooden plinths, protected only by plastic tarps. In Thailand, the government has considered using a warehouse at the city's old airport to store rice because other storage facilities are full.
The surplus is the result of good weather and government programs that encourage rice growing. World rice stockpiles are expected to rise 2% this year, the ninth consecutive annual increase, according to the London-based International Grains Council.
Nice article from Platts to help shed light on RINS and fuel exports.  So far, RINS not leading to surge in exports.

EU joblessness: down for first time in two years
Further evidence emerged Wednesday that the eurozone economy is on the mend after struggling with a recession that's seen unemployment edge toward the 20 million mark.
Figures from Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, showed that the number of unemployed across the 17 European Union countries that use the euro fell by 24,000 in June to 19.27 million.
That's the first fall since April 2011 and adds to the weight of recent evidence that suggests the recession in the eurozone has — or is about to — come to an end.
Headlines only; no links; it is easy to subscribe to The Williston Wire.

Construction begins on US Highway 2/85 at 11th street.

City of Williston plans new office building; 17,800-ft-square; Williston Development Center.

First phase of quality apartment residences to begin; 160-acre; 330 apartments.  Entire develpment called The Ridge; first phase, the Prairie Pines at the Ridge.

Debate over need for crew camps/temporary housing in Williams County continues.

2012 ND Crime Statistics released:
Western North Dakota's oil-producing counties have gotten a bit of a bad rap as far as crime goes, but the state's attorney general says increases in crime there have not been out of line with population increases.  Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem said approximately 25 percent of North Dakotans live in 12 of the busiest oil-producing counties. While crime has increased in those counties, it also has increased across the rest of the state.  Stenehjem unveiled the state's crime statistics for 2012 this week.
Human interest story: overseas workers helping in the oil patch:
Little did the two young women know that when they met at the airport in Beijing in early June it would be the start of a beautiful friendship.  In Qinyan Guo and Shuangyi Dai's homeland a mountain range divides their two Chinese provinces, but in Williston their lives have converged over shopping, learning English and American fast food.  Guo, known as Carly, and Dai, who took the name Ruby, are part of a cultural exchange program that has brought 42 students (23 women and 19 men) to the city from China, Jamaica, Jordan and Moldova to work at the iconic golden arches - McDonald's.
Groundbreaking for new lounge, restaurant, meeting space in Crosby.

For long-term residents in western North Dakota, this really is a big deal: Cash Wise Foods opens in Watford City. 
Cash Wise Foods has opened in Watford City, the first tenant in a commercial development by Minneapolis-based Oppidan Investment Co.  
The 130,000-square-foot development is expected to be fully occupied and open by the end of the year.  Other tenants, including Alco, American Smokewagon BBQ, Happy Joe's Pizza, Happy Rice Buffet, Mailbox Solutions, Oppidan Investment Co., Red Wing Shoes, Taco John's, Tractor Supply Co. and Z Wireless, are expected to open for business beginning in November. 
Two new hotels, restaurants planned for New Town.

Sounds like the boom continues. When I was growing up in Williston, if even one of these projects was happening, it would have been a big deal. But go back through the list and count the number of new projects.

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Sometimes IPs Don't Even Come Close To Telling The Whole Story: All Three Of These Are Three Forks Wells; All In The Same Section

Some additional comments:
  • all three of these wells are on a 5-well pad; these three are on DRL status; two others on CONF status
  • two of three below were originally permitted to be middle Bakken wells; changed to TF wells
  • the Three Forks is often thought to be best on the fringes of the middle Bakken, or the pinchout; these wells are smack dab in the middle of the middle Bakken play in western North Dakota
Another well sited in this section:
  • 18211, 1,000, Slawson, Minx 1-29H, Big Bend, middle Bakken; 18 stages; 176,800 lbs; blew out while fracking; t10/09; cum 188K 6/13;

Sometimes IPs don't even come close to telling the whole story:

NDIC File No: 20810     API No: 33-061-01743-00-00
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 6/4/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SWSE 29-152-92     Footages: 300 FSL 1330 FEL     Latitude: 47.949777     Longitude: -102.476832
Current Well Name: MOOKA 2-29-20TFH
Elevation(s): 1907 KB   1884 GR   1884 GL     Total Depth: 20090     Field: BIG BEND
Spud Date(s):  11/15/2012
Casing String(s): 9.625" 1722'   7" 10573'  
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10573-20090     Comp: 6/4/2013     Status: F     Date: 6/15/2013     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 21565     Cum MCF Gas: 7768     Cum Water: 9582
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 6/15/2013     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 669     IP MCF: 395     IP Water: 337
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


NDIC File No: 24217     API No: 33-061-02308-00-00
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 6/6/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SWSE 29-152-92     Footages: 300 FSL 1380 FEL     Latitude: 47.949776     Longitude: -102.477036
Current Well Name: MOOKA 3-29-20TFH
Elevation(s): 1907 KB   1884 GR   1886 GL     Total Depth: 19942     Field: BIG BEND
Spud Date(s):  11/20/2012
Casing String(s): 9.625" 1885'   7" 10534'  
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10534-19942     Comp: 6/6/2013     Status: F     Date: 6/24/2013     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 21694     Cum MCF Gas: 11658     Cum Water: 9336
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 6/24/2013     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 733     IP MCF: 423     IP Water: 407
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

NDIC File No: 24218     API No: 33-061-02309-00-00
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 6/5/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SWSE 29-152-92     Footages: 300 FSL 1355 FEL     Latitude: 47.949776     Longitude: -102.476934
Current Well Name: MOOKA 4-29-20H
Elevation(s): 1906 KB   1884 GR   1885 GL     Total Depth: 19865     Field: BIG BEND
Spud Date(s):  11/18/2012
Casing String(s): 9.625" 1743'   7" 10463'  
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10463-19865     Comp: 6/5/2013     Status: F     Date: 6/8/2013     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 23656     Cum MCF Gas: 9670     Cum Water: 11110
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 6/8/2013     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 997     IP MCF: 482     IP Water: 893 Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Tweets Are Tweets, And Where There's Smoke, There's Fire

There are two reasons why a company might spin off assets.

Earlier it was reported that OXY USA might spin off its California assets.

Regular readers also know that Chevron is moving people and resources from San Francisco to Houston.

I may be reading too much into these two stories, or reading too much between the lines, but headlines are headlines, and tweets are tweets.

Confirmation: Canada Is Not Sitting Around, Waiting For The President To Make A Decision

Platts is tweeting:
Kinder Morgan, Keyera to complete 40,000 b/d Edmonton crude oil rail loading terminal by Q2 2014; may later boost to 125,000 b/d.
Put this bit of trivia into context.

See this post yesterday, and updated today. Canada not sitting around waiting for the Keystone XL to be approved. You know, before this is all over, things may work out better than expected. To the Canadians, the president will be seen as the jerk they already think he is -- unable to make a decision one way or the other -- and Canada will still sell all the oil then can produce. 

Put all of this into the context of an earlier Platts essay: CBR will keep on chugging.

A $10,000 Wrinkle


August 8, 2013: "the fix is in" -- Matt Drudge

Original Post
The New York Times calls it a wrinkle:
As President Obama barnstorms the country promoting his health care law, one audience very close to home is growing increasingly anxious about the financial implications of the new coverage: members of Congress and their personal staffs.
Under a wrinkle that dates back to enactment of the law, members of Congress and thousands of their aides are required to get their coverage through new state-based markets known as insurance exchanges.
But the law does not provide any obvious way for the federal government to continue paying its share of the premiums for the comprehensive coverage.
If the government cannot do so, it could mean an additional expense of $5,000 a year for individuals and $11,000 for families under some of the most popular plans.
Not surprisingly, that idea is unpopular on Capitol Hill. 
Conspiracy theory: this was not an oversight. Capital Hill lawyers are not dummies. They put this in the bill as such to get the bill passed: they could honestly say that Congress did not get the usual Congressional break. They were subject to the same law that everyone else was subject to.

Had Congress exempted themselves in the original bill, it never would have passed. In fact, it's very possible President Obama would not have allowed it. No doubt President Obama is very, very sincere that his health bill is the best thing since ... well, FDR's social security program.

You can bet that this will be corrected with a simple amendment attached to an unrelated bill that must be passed, such as a defense appropriations bill, or a "continuing resolution bill" to continue funding the government. Congress will take care of themselves and their secretaries (and interns). Not to worry. Nothing will change for Congress.

Wells Coming Off Confidential Llist Wednesday; 4/6 Go To DRL Status; EOG Has Another Gusher In Clarks Creek

  • 20513, 2,365, EOG, Riverview 3-3130H, Clarks Creek, t3/13; cum 116K 6/13;
  • 23286, drl, Statoil, Bures 20-29 4TFH, Alger, no data,
  • 23405, 183,  Fidelity, Jerry 15-22H, Stanley, t3/13; cum 17K 6/13;
  • 24086, drl, Statoil, Sax 25-36 4TFH, Banks, no data,
  • 24402, drl, SM Energy, Koeser 3X-26HB, Siverston, no data,
  • 24504, drl, Hess, BB-State 151-96-3625H-4, Blue Buttes, no data,

 20513, see above, EOG, Riverview 3-3130H, Clarks Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

OXY Could Spin Off California Assets; Misses on 2Q13 Earning

Reuters is reporting:
Chief Executive Steve Chazen indicated in April that Occidental's Middle East operations might be put up for sale , and analysts also expect the California division to be spun off.
Also, in the report:
Occidental Petroleum Corp posted a smaller-than-expected quarterly profit on Tuesday, hurt by lower oil prices in the Middle East and North Africa, where the fourth-largest U.S. oil company is considering an exit. 
Quarterly profit was $1.58 vs $1.60. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.  

Update On CBR Vs Pipeline In The Bakken; Enbridge Reports Disappointing Numbers

Platts is reporting:
Volumes on Enbridge Energy Partners' North Dakota crude pipeline system are on the rise in connection with less competitive netbacks for sending Bakken Shale crude by rail, the company said Tuesday.

We "expect improvement on our North Dakota system as a result of significant narrowing of pricing differentials between the market centers and the North Dakota supply basin," President Mark Maki said on a call to discuss the company's second-quarter earnings.

Crude-by-rail movements have increased in recent years in North America because of a lag in pipeline capacity to ship booming low-cost shale oil production, notably from the Bakken, to destination markets
Zacks reports disappointing numbers:
Enbridge (EEP) reported second-quarter 2013 adjusted earnings of 13 cents per unit, falling behind the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 22 cents. The quarterly figure was also lower than the year-earlier profit of 23 cents.

Total revenue in the quarter was up almost 7.8% year over year at $1,672.7 million from the year-ago level of $1,551.1 million. The reported figure was however below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,750.0 million.
Also at Zacks:
Enbridge Energy remains optimistic about its long-term growth. It expects various organic projects to be commissioned in 2013 and 2014. These projects are characterized by their longer term and lower risk. The partnership’s business model will assist the initiative of its parent company – Enbridge Inc. – in increasing capacity in the Lakehead System and the Eastern Access Projects with its commissioning scheduled for 2014. The partnership is undertaking various growth initiatives in the Liquids segment as witnessed by pipeline expansion for expediting movement of resources from the Bakken region.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anyting you read here or think you may have read here.

ONEOK 2Q13 Earnings Release

Press release:
ONEOK today announced second-quarter 2013 net income attributable to ONEOK of $0.9 million, or zero cents per diluted share, which includes a non-cash, after-tax charge of $71.0 million, or 34 cents per diluted share, in the energy services segment.  In the second quarter 2012, net income attributable to ONEOK was $61.0 million, or 29 cents per diluted share.
Excluding the impact of the non-cash charge in the energy services segment, second-quarter 2013 results increased compared with the same period last year.
The improved second-quarter 2013 results reflect significantly higher natural gas volumes gathered and processed, and natural gas liquids (NGL) gathered as a result of completed growth projects in the ONEOK Partners segment, and new rates and the benefit of colder than normal weather in the natural gas distribution segment.
Other items of interest:
  • ONEOK Partners placing in service in the second quarter the following projects:
  • The 600-mile Bakken NGL Pipeline that has a current capacity to transport 60,000 barrels per day (bpd) of unfractionated NGLs in the Williston Basin to ONEOK Partners' 50 percent-owned Overland Pass Pipeline;
  • The 100-million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) Stateline II natural gas processing facility in western Williams County, N.D.;
  • An ethane header pipeline that creates a new point of interconnection between the partnership's Mont Belvieu, Texas, NGL fractionation and storage assets, and several petrochemical customers; and
  • A significant portion of the Divide County, N.D., natural gas gathering system; the remaining portion is expected to be completed in the second half 2013.

Six (6) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; Statoil With A Nice Well

Active rigs: 181

Six (6) new permits -- 
  • Operators: Oasis (2), Hess (2), Whiting (2)
  • Fields: South Tobacco Garden (McKenzie), Beach (Golden Valley), Cow Creek (Williams)
  • Comments:
Only one came off the confidential list today; went to DRL status

Five (5) producing wells completed:
  • 24172, 2,079, Statoil, Panzer 22-23 5TFH, Alger, t6/13; cum --
  • 24217, 733, Slawson, Mooka 3-29-20TFH, Big Bend, t6/13; cum 22K 6/13;
  • 20810, 669, Slawson, Mooka 2-29-20TFH, Big Bend, t6/13; cum 22K 6/13;
  • 24218, 997, Slawson, Mooka 4-29-20H, Big Bend, t6/13; cum 24K 6/13;
  • 20879, --, HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-1A-12-2H, McGregory Buttes; t--; cum --; producing; gas units were said to be quite high according to the file report; fracking data not available yet

Manning Acquitted

US Army Pfc Bradley Manning acquitted of aiding the enemy for giving secrets to WikiLeaks.

Twilight In The Desert

A reader suggests: Twilight in the Desert.

From Amazon, the book description:
[The author] reveals a Saudi oil and production industry that could soon approach a serious, irreversible decline. In this exhaustively researched book, veteran oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his three-plus decades of insider experience and more than 200 independently produced reports about Saudi petroleum resources and production operations.
He uncovers a story about Saudi Arabia’s troubled oil industry, not to mention its political and societal instability, which differs sharply from the globally accepted Saudi version.
It’s a story that is provocative and disturbing, based on undeniable facts, but until now never told in its entirety. Twilight in the Desert answers all readers’ questions about Saudi oil and production industries with keen examination instead of unsubstantiated posturing, and takes its place as one of the most important books of this still-young century.
Published back in 2006. I guess the Prince decided to go public now that he's read the book.

The book has received 112 reviews with an average rating of 4.2 on a scale of 1 to 5.

Burlington, North Dakota, Feeling Effects Of The Oil Boom; Outside The Oil Patch

It's hard to remember a sleepier town in North Dakota than Burlington -- except maybe for Grassy Butte. For newbies, Burlington is just west of Minot, and for all intents and purposes, outside the Bakken play. It is in Ward County, not one of the Bakken oil counties by a long shot. But, like Minot, it is feeling the effect of the oil boom.

The Minot Daily News is reporting:
The 197-acre Harvest Heights project is utilizing much of the scenic natural landscape along the hills overlooking a broad valley. The lots begin at the bottom of the hill. Others are terraced above in a well planned community that offers a myriad of spectacular views.
"The nice concept of this is about 35 acres remains as undeveloped space," explained Feist. "It will be green space with natural trees and foliage that will be undisturbed as much as we possibly can. It should complement the views from the lots, most of which range from 1,200 to 1,500 square feet."
Amber Alexander, Real Builders sales and marketing, calls the project "one of a kind" and unique to the region.
"We are trying to bring something different with the views and the sizes of the lots," said Alexander.
While Harvest Heights is the most visible development in the Burlington area and on schedule to become available to the public yet this year, other development projects are either getting under way with physical construction or are in the planning stages.
A 148-unit apartment complex has been designed and is scheduled to be built along U.S. Highway 2 & 52. The Highlands Ranch project on County Road 10 above the former Speedway Restaurant has been platted by a developer from California. It includes more than 500 lots.
A developer from California. More than 500 lots. Hard to tell that the boom is over. 

Platts: CBR Will Keep Chugging

Platts is reporting:
While many have warned the economic viability of moving crude by rail is threatened by the narrowing of the benchmark Brent-West Texas Intermediate spread, a group of railroads are still singing its praises, vowing that the shipping phenomenon has staying power.
At the same time, big upstream operator Newfield Exploration last week called CBR–a growing abbreviation for that mode of transportation–more of a “logistics” move to ship crude from the Utah’s Uinta Basin, instead of a way to gain price advantages.
So, how can there be so many differing opinions on the transportation method that has rapidly taken the crude logistics industry by storm?
See story at the link.

By the way, MDW was one of the first to refer to shipping oil by railroad with the acronym CBR.

The earliest post I can find in which I used the "CBR" tag was back on May 9, 2012. The link was to a story in which EOG mentioned that it had received  its first crude from the Bakken shale oil fields in North Dakota at  the St. James, Louisiana terminal on April 15 (2012). Wow, that was just less than a year ago. 

Earnings: NOV, Arch Coal

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

National Oilwell Varco: earnings fall 12% on margins; the largest U.S. oilfield equipment provider, reported a 12 percent fall in second-quarter profit as margins remained under pressure in the North American land-drilling market. Net income attributable to the company fell to $531 million, or $1.24 per share, for the quarter ended June 30, from $605 million, or $1.42 per share, a year earlier.

Twelve (12) companies announced increased dividends.

Arch Coal beats by $0.04, misses on revs; Co says that the the outlook for U.S. thermal coal is improving: Reports Q2 (Jun) loss of $0.29 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of ($0.33); revenues fell 20.6% year/year to $766.3 mln vs the $919.73 mln consensus.

Europe's Renewable Romance Fades -- The WSJ ...

... just as President Obama's infatuation with wind soars....

The WSJ op-ed piece here.
Europe has bet big on wind and solar energy, and many environmental advocates would like America to follow. Wind and solar have a role in the U.S. energy economy, but we would be wise to see the cautionary tale in the European experience and adjust our plans accordingly.
Wind and solar generate 3.5% of America's electricity today, but Denmark gets 30% of its electricity from wind and hopes to produce 50% by 2020. Germany, Europe's largest national economy, produces roughly 12% of its electricity from wind and solar today, and it wants renewable energy to account for 35% of electricity generation by 2020.
Clean energy powered by renewable resources is understandably attractive. But the honeymoon with renewables is ending for some Europeans as the practical challenges of the relationship become clear.
The first challenge is cost. Germany has reportedly invested more than $250 billion in renewable energy deployment, and its households pay the highest power costs in Europe—except for the Danish. On average, Germans and Danes pay roughly 300% more for residential electricity than Americans do.
Another challenge of Europe's growing dependence on renewable energy is far more serious: the potential loss of reliable electrical supply. It's one thing to ask consumers to pay more for cleaner energy; it's another to force them to endure blackouts. 
I used to have strong feelings about renewable energy in this country, but I have pretty much lost interest. "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."

Americans should now be aware of the scams, the cost, the futility of solar and wind, but if Americans don't mind paying higher utility bills for opportunity to burn candles during rolling blackouts, that's their prerogative.  We have a democracy and if folks want to approve these projects, that's their right.

I'll continue posting links/stories about global warming (which stopped some 15 years ago) and renewable energy for archival purposes, but I've pretty much lost interest in the whole subject.

This one is almost too good to pass up. This sounds like Becky never took a science course after eighth grade. An entire "science" article with about as much science in it as saying "the sun came up in the east today."

Apparently Becky was very, very impressed with a "lake" in the Arctic that disappeared earlier this  summer. But then this:
The lake, about the size of an Olympic swimming pool, started forming in mid-July, LiveScience first reported on July 23. The size and timing of the lake are typical for this time of year and location, the researchers said.
A reader suggests Becky is padding her resume for a future application as Director, EPA.

Alberta Oil Incident Worsens

This story is starting to get some legs: the Alberta oil incident worsens. I first posted this story/link a few days ago. This may be the straw that breaks the camel's back as President Obama continues to dither on approval/disapproval decision for the Keystone. This is a most troubling headache for the Canadian producers:
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Canada's largest independent oil producer, raised the amount of oil released from an uncontained series of leaks at an oil-sands site in Alberta to nearly 6,000 barrels of heavy crude, up from an initial report of 175 barrels, regulators said.
"Because it's ongoing, the volume will continue to increase," Cara Tobin, a spokeswoman for the Alberta Energy Regulator, or AER, said Monday.
Late Saturday, the province's regulatory authority changed the status of the incident to "ongoing" from "over" and raised the reported volume from four separate leaks to a total of 5,975 barrels of oil. That came more than a week after local media said more than 4,500 barrels of oil had leaked, citing internal company data. 
The Calgary-based company hasn't confirmed any figures regarding the size of the leaks and has said little about the scope of the problem. On July 25, it released a statement attributing the cause to unspecified "mechanical failures of wellbores in the vicinity of the impacted areas." Wellbores are holes drilled to explore for or recover oil.

Tuesday Morning Links, News, And Views -- An Update On Syria

Active rigs: 179

RBN Energy: Nova Scotia natural gas for northeast United States; right place, wrong time?

WSJ Links

There isn't much in today's paper that catches my attention. I posted this story yesterday about point-and-shoot digital camera sales plummeting, due to smart phones and iPads. Here was another bit of trivia I had not thought about:
"It's the classic case of an industry that is unable to adapt to shifts in user demands," said Christopher Chute, a digital imaging analyst at IDC.
While adding Internet connectivity through Wi-Fi has been commonplace in many consumer electronics, digital cameras remain largely stand-alone devices. Only one in six digital cameras shipped this year will be equipped with Wi-Fi, according to IDC.
BMW launches its first mass-production electric car, and it doesn't cost much more than the Volt.
... the auto maker's first mass-production electric car, saying his company would need to boost sales of plug-in and battery electric vehicles dramatically by 2025 to meet regulatory requirements.
The BMW i3 is expected to go on sale in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2014 where it is expected to be priced at $41,350 before federal tax and other incentives. An optional "range extender"—a small gasoline motor—will likely boost the price tag to $45,000.
Personally, I still don't see the market for these high-priced, short-range, automobiles. I think consumers are going to get incredible deals, especially in leasing when these automobiles all hit the market.  Apparently these BMWs will compete with the Tesla S, another hot-selling electric car, priced at $65,000. I honestly don't get it. Of course, I walk or ride a bike whenever I can.

Sitting on the back burner, pun intended, the Mideast may be ready to boil over -- or so reports The Journal today.
The region is much closer to a broad conflagration than most Americans realize, with Sunnis now facing off against Shiites, and secularists against Islamists across a wide swath of lands. The dream of fostering a new wave of democratic, multiethnic governments—embraced by two successive American administrations—may be withering before our eyes.
The problems start with the bloody turmoil in the streets of Egypt, the cornerstone of American influence in the region for 35 years. There, a new military strongman seems more intent on crushing the Muslim Brotherhood than heeding American counsel to find a way to include the Islamists in a new government.
Meantime, Syria has become a proxy war for the entire region, pitting Shiites against Sunnis and drawing in combatants from all over. The nasty Alawite/Shiite axis of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iran and Hezbollah has fought back to even with Sunni opposition forces, armed by Persian Gulf states and, soon, the U.S.
This now is essentially a sectarian war, and it's starting to spread next door to Lebanon. Sunnis there resent the fact that Hezbollah's Shiite fighters have been using Lebanon as a springboard to enter the fight on behalf of Mr. Assad. Car bombs and street fights between Sunni and Shiite groups are popping up; Lebanon is in danger of sliding back into its familiar rut of sectarian war.
Iraq now also seems infected. While most Americans have largely checked out of Iraqi news, a new wave of Sunni-Shiite violence is building. On Monday alone, 18 bombs exploded, killing at least 58 people. Whatever stability a decade of American military presence left behind seems newly imperiled.
Wouldn't it be interesting if Bakken oil --> undermined Saudi economy --> Mideast conflagration? Ah, yes, "the Bakken has some oil, but not much." I forget who said that. Her blog site is now silent.

But without doubt, this is my favorite (and most humorous) story coming out of the Mideast: watching Washington try to tell us that the military ousting of Mr Morsi in Egypt was not a military coup. Say what? Really? My hunch is that the debate will simply wither away like so many other scandals and, in the end, no one will really care -- as if anyone really cares now.

Lame duck. The president's proposals for helping the middle class are DOA.

Monday, July 29, 2013

Well, That Was Easy -- Only One Well Coming Off The Confidential List Tuesday -- And It Goes To DRL

23077, DRL, CLR, Oscar 2-24H, Stoneview, no data

Tea Leaves: President Obama Getting Ready To Kill Keystone XL 3.0 (Or Whatever Iteration We Are On)


August 5, 2013: Michael Fitzsimmons at SeekingAlpha is asking: Keystone-XL Pipeline: delayed so long it no longer matters? Tactically, the pipeline does not; strategically, it matters. It matters a whole lot.

July 30, 2013: In light of my comments below, a reader was nice enough to send a great article on the same subject from the Financial Post. Interestingly, some of the same observations were made.
President Obama’s latest smug comments on the Keystone XL oil sands pipeline suggest the Canadian project’s odds of being approved under his watch are waning.
Thankfully, Canada hasn’t stood still while the U.S. President dithered.
So many new pipeline options have emerged that Keystone XL’s relevance is diminishing as each one gains momentum.
I replied to the reader, in light of that article, his comments, and my comments made last night (part of the original post):
My most recent comments regarding the Keystone XL reflect my frustration, sarcasm, -- short term, we can do without the Keystone but long term there are so many reasons for the Keystone -- exactly as you pointed out. The good news: we will see the Keystone (or a newer version)  some day, but it may happen after President Obama leaves office.

I think his decision (actually he will probably listen to John Kerry) will reflect how much he values the US-Canadian relationship.
Sometimes statesmen do things for bigger reasons than the stated reason.

Original Post

On a day that the market was down, and almost all energy stocks were "red" (with some notable exceptions like KOG and OAS), TransCanada was up over 1% even with this New York Times story. It certainly seems TransCanada investors don't want the company to build this pipeline.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Don't make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Rigzone is reporting.
U.S. President Barack Obama has called into question the number of jobs that would be provided from the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline in a New York Times interview over the weekend.
Republicans have frequently stated that there would be a large number of jobs created if the pipeline is approved for construction, Obama said, adding that he disputes their premise.
“Republicans have said that this would be a big jobs generator,” Obama said in the interview. “There is no evidence that that’s true. The most realistic estimates are this might maybe 2,000 jobs during the construction of the pipeline, which might take a year or two, and then after that we’re talking about somewhere between 50 and 100 jobs in an economy of 150 million working people.”
The president noted that even the temporary increase of 2,000 jobs that might be created during the construction of the pipeline, which would cost about $5.3 billion to build, was “a blip relative to the need.”
It's obvious the US no longer needs this pipeline.

I don't think anyone cares any more.

I don't think anyone is even following this story any more except a few bloggers.

TransCanada will be better off without this albatross for the next ten years of legal fights, bad PR, sabotage.

Canada can move on with a new plan. More freight trains.

Shenanigans In Washington With The National Debt -- No Change In 70 Days -- Fascinating, Isn't It?

CNS News is reporting:
According to the Daily Treasury Statement for July 26, which the Treasury released this afternoon, the federal debt has been stuck at exactly $16,699,396,000,000.00 for 70 straight days.
That is approximately $25 million below the legal limit of $16,699,421,095,673.60 that Congress has imposed on the debt.
The portion of the federal debt subject to the legal limit set by Congress first hit $16,699,396,000,000.00 at the close of business on May 17. At the close of every business day since then, it has also been $16,699,396,000,000.00, according to the official accounting published by the Treasury Department.
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. 

A Small Rewrite, Shakespeare

A Bad Mood Rising...

... sometimes I am in a bad mood when I start blogging. If so, it usually has to do with some incredibly dumb news story but as soon as I start blogging about the Bakken, my mood changes, especially when I see something like this:
22158, 996, CLR, Kuhn 2-12H, t5/12; cum 204K 5/13; still producing at 10,000 bbls/month; 29 days to total depth; gas as high as 6,000 units; the seam was 12 feet thick; 60 - 90 foot flares; 40 stages; 3.8 million lbs sand frack; ceramics were not mentioned.
CLR just received several permits for more wells next to this one.

This well is a non-descript well on the prairie -- no one would think twice driving by it -- and it's IP was not all that impressive (compared to Statoil IPs) ... and yet ... 200,000 bbls of oil in one year, and it is still producing 9,000 bbls of oil/month. (Except that while drilling it had flares as high as 90 feet which would have been pretty impressive --)

It is not on a pump.

Remember when we used to look for 100,000 bbls in one year? Now, the "new norm" is 200,000 bbls in one year.

And this well would have been less expensive than several years ago:
  • pad drilling
  • 29 days to total depth vs 60 days in the early days of the boom
  • infrastructure in place
  • drilling and completion costs have come down in the oil patch; more supply; less demand
40 stages is not unusual any more; technically they've proved they can do 60 stages. The sundry suggests it was all sand. Regardless, it was less than 4 million lbs of proppant.

And there is a reason I posted the entire stub below. See if you can guess why I posted it.

NDIC File No: 22158     API No: 33-053-03921-00-00     CTB No: 122158
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 4/24/2012     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SESE 12-152-100     Footages: 570 FSL 430 FEL     Latitude: 47.994516     Longitude: -103.413536
Current Well Name: KUHN 2-12H
Elevation(s): 2055 KB   2034 GR   2047 GL     Total Depth: 21450     Field: CAMP
Spud Date(s):  2/20/2012
Casing String(s): 9.625" 1970'   7" 11210'  
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11210-21450     Comp: 4/24/2012     Status: F     Date: 5/6/2012     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 203731     Cum MCF Gas: 280227     Cum Water: 58277
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 5/6/2012     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 996     IP MCF: 1256     IP Water: 333
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

A Bad Moon Rising, CCR