Tuesday, April 9, 2013

The Disappearing Bakken Story Explained


April 12, 2013: Alan Von Altendorf also posted an article at SeekingAlpha, The Myth of US Energy Independence, April 2, 2013. I did not post it at the time.

April 10, 2013: Yes, SeekingAlpha pulled the article by Alan von Altendorf.  The writer provides an explanation:
I have retired as an analyst, and thank SA for prompt action in removing an article that contained a material error. I sent SA the following in response to a note they received from Continental Resources:
I unreservedly and profoundly apologize for having misunderstood the notation pertaining to CLR's audited 1P oil reserves. It was a terrible mistake on my part. I accept sole responsibility for publishing an article about CLR that Seeking Alpha's alert readers rightly condemned as rubbish. -- Alan von Altendorf
Mr Von Altendorf needs to un-retire. It is incredibly important for analysts like him to observe and comment on the Bakken. As I noted below, for all we know, he may be correct. A lot of what we see in the Bakken appears not to make sense. Maybe more later: for now, I hope Mr Von Altendorf unretires.

Oh, by the way, the article was still on my iPad when I woke up this a.m. I was using my laptop last night when I mentioned I couldn't find the article. I had forgotten I had downloaded the article on the iPad on the bus when I left Logan Airport. So, I got to see the article again this a.m. but the iPad was too quick for me. Before I could go back and figure out how to "save" it, the iPad refreshed the screen. Zap. Gone.

A reader sent me this short note:
Seem to recall he had CLR's Bakken proven oil reserves in only double digit millions, like maybe $13 or $18. Kept saying how small they are. I am not close to this, but there is the smell test.
Original Post

I assume I just can't find it but I've gone to two URL's sent to my be trusted readers, and did a search with the key words at SeekingAlpha and I get a dialogue box that the story has been removed. I'm sure I'm just missing it, but if it is removed, that in itself will be quite a story.

Again, I assume I am just not seeing it. My problem.

Having said that, if it is gone, that's too bad. I was going to have so much fun with that story. For folks who missed it, some character wrote a short novel, I guess one would call it a novella, about the Bakken, saying that the Bakken is destined to fizzle. In the manner in which he wrote the article I don't think it was libelous but it may have come close.

Interestingly, the URL is still there (one cannot get rid of URLs on the internet): http://seekingalpha.com/article/1330811-bakken-boom-destined-to-fizzle?source=yahoo. But it's really something. It's completely disappeared.

I hope the article gets re-posted. I will be upset if SeekingAlpha does not provide an explanation. This is too sweet.

I was going to have such fun with it. The author's premise was that the Bakken was all hype, that it was just a matter of time before this house of cards would fall and that everyone "believing in the Bakken" were all dupes. That may be, but what an interesting group of dupes. Starting with Statoil for buying BEXP not too long ago.

And now this Rigzone today: foreign companies boost investment in US shale plays.
Investment by foreign oil and gas companies played a significant role in the development of U.S. shale plays, according to a recent report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Foreign oil and gas companies invested 20 percent, or nearly $27 billion, of the $133.7 billion total investment from 2008 to 2012 as part of 73 deals, EIA reported Monday. The rest of the investments were part of outright acquisitions – including BHP Billiton Petroleum's acquisition of Petrohawk Energy Corp., or joint ventures among U.S. companies and financial institutions.
Since 2008, foreign companies have entered into 21 joint ventures with U.S. acreage holders and operators, investing more than $26 billion in tight oil and shale gas plays. These investments include Sinochem Group's $1.7 billion joint venture with Pioneer Natural Resources to buy a stake in West Texas' Wolfcamp shale play.
We may all be dupes, but we've got very good company. 

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