- BEXP: 15
- CLR: 39
- EOG: 2
- Fidelity: 3
- Hess: 15
- KOG: 13
- Oasis: 9
- OXY USA: 8
- Petro-Hunt: 15
- Slawson: 6
- Triangle: 8
- Whiting: 22
- Dunn: 31
- McKenzie: 65
- Mountrail: 33
- Williams: 49
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The company estimates most North Dakota takeaway capacity has been built out north of Lake Sakakawea, but oil output has been almost equal on both sides of the lake. That means there will be “a lot of demand in the future” to move barrels from south to north in order to access outbound infrastructure, Tesoro vice-president of logistics Rick Weyen said today at the Bakken Product Markets and Takeaway Capacity conference in Denver, Colorado.
Crude producers are continually looking for feasible ways to reach more outbound capacity, he said. Tesoro's High Plains pipeline system, which currently moves crude from north of the lake to its 70,000 b/d refinery in Mandan, North Dakota, via a 12-inch line could be that solution.
“A lot of rail companies are awfully close to our pipeline. We're working hard with a lot of rail facilities to come up with connection agreements,” Weyen said, adding Tesoro could make announcements on rail facility connection agreements over the next couple of months.
“We think rail is long term, it's going to be the way Bakken crude is moved…the pipeline is there to serve and help the shippers get the crude from the production area to the rail facilities,” he said.I have no idea how this will all end, but I do remember some folks commenting that once the pipeline is all in place, it's all over for rail. Here is a very different opinion. I find this very, very intriguing, to say the least.
US barge owner Kirby said Thursday that Bakken crude oil would soon find a rail route to the West Coast, where vessels would pick it up to deliver to California and Washington refineries.
"There are investments being made to facilitate that as we speak," CEO Joe Pyne told analysts during a fourth-quarter earnings call.
While Kirby executives have previously considered the possibility of West Coast routes for Bakken oil, it was the first time they sounded confident that the trades would happen.
Pyne did not go into detail about what share of that market Kirby hopes to snag or how soon the shipments might start.
North Dakota's booming oil production has shaken up midstream markets, with railroads, river barges, coastal barges and a few Jones Act tankers picking up the slack while pipelines get built.
Pyne said those dynamics for crude oil transportation will keep shifting for several years before a more permanent trend takes hold.
Calumet is proposing a diesel plant for the South Heart area. Also more natural gas plants in local area. Potential for Carbo Ceramics proppant plant further east. Dickinson has a big tank fabricator that needs to expand. Watford City, with 20,000, and Killdeer, with 5000+, will need a regional center to shop at and get services, as retail and consumer services can't get labor or housing for labor. Dickinson will be the Minot for the Bakken south of the river.
An additional 22,000 people are expected to settle in Dickinson over the next seven years, further stretching the city’s infrastructure as it struggles to keep up with water supply, wastewater and other issues.
At the end of the current biennium, the city is looking at $42.1 million of debt incurred from borrowing from the state’s revolving fund loan program for infrastructure costs, and could add $40.5 million of debt more on top of that if the state doesn’t step in to help.
Under a bill sponsored by Rep. Robert Skarphol, R-Tioga, $12 million would be granted to Dickinson to help fund water infrastructure needs through a change in the state’s oil and gas production tax allocation and impact aid program.
But Dennis Johnson, president of the Dickinson City Commission, said that is not nearly enough.I can never keep track of the North Dakota budget, but at this link, posted back in May, 2011:
Thanks in part to the development of the Bakken play, the U.S. currently is importing less than 50 percent of the oil consumed nationwide, according to BLM statistics. Those same statistics also show that the price drilling companies are willing to pay for onshore parcels has more than tripled in the past three years, roughly the time period when the Bakken began to explode on the scene.Ah, yes, I do remember the naysayers. Opportunities missed.
Labor unions enthusiastically backed the Obama administration's health-care overhaul when it was up for debate. Now that the law is rolling out, some are turning sour.
Union leaders say many of the law's requirements will drive up the costs for their health-care plans and make unionized workers less competitive. Among other things, the law eliminates the caps on medical benefits and prescription drugs used as cost-containment measures in many health-care plans. It also allows children to stay on their parents' plans until they turn 26.
To offset that, the nation's largest labor groups want their lower-paid members to be able to get federal insurance subsidies while remaining on their plans. In the law, these subsidies were designed only for low-income workers without employer coverage as a way to help them buy private insurance.This is so much fun. I am helping my older granddaughter with cursive writing. Bless her teacher: the latter takes cursive writing seriously. On the front page of the WSJ: the new script for teaching handwriting is no script at all.
Illinois took the rare step Wednesday of postponing a bond auction just hours before it was expected to launch, as concerns grew among investors over the state's deep pension hole.
While Illinois still has ready access to capital markets, state officials feared a jump in interest costs to attract buyers if they went forward with plans to sell $500 million in bonds for school and transportation projects. Bond investors have become increasingly leery of the state because of a deadlock in the Illinois Legislature over how to fill a $96.8 billion pension shortfall, considered by researchers as the worst among U.S. states.
"It's the first real market indication that, because of our fiscal condition, we couldn't sell bonds," said Brian Battle, director of trading at Performance Trust Capital Partners in Chicago, referring to his home state. His firm had no role in the Illinois bond sale.This story I might read thrice, also. Fits into David Graeber's book that I am reading: Debt: The First 5,000 Years. It also explains why Geithner's idea of getting rid of the debt limit makes sense to some folks.
The potential jump in borrowing costs is the latest sign of growing fiscal challenges in Illinois. The state already is paying the highest interest rates—at about 3.2% on its 10-year bonds, according to Thomson Reuters Municipal Market Data—among U.S. states, and the Illinois government is behind on its bills to hospitals, doctors and pharmacies by an estimated $8.4 billion, according to the state comptroller's office.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Friday downgraded the state's debt, aligning Illinois and California as the lowest-rated states. But while California's rate outlook is positive, the credit-rating firm warned of further downgrades of Illinois if the pension issue isn't addressed.
The decision by Gov. Pat Quinn, a Democrat, to delay Wednesday's bond sale sparked renewed calls for immediate action among lawmakers who have been debating potential fixes for more than two years. "The governor's delayed bond sale should direct our attention to the indisputable truth about pensions," said Illinois Senate President John Cullerton, a Democrat.OH, OH.
The euro-zone debt crisis has ground growth in France to a halt, pushing unemployment to a 13-year high and driving up state-backed jobless-insurance payments. The system is set to post a €5 billion ($6.71 billion) deficit this year, bringing its total debt to €18.6 billion, according to a report published last week by the Cour des Comptes, the country's national auditor.
The pension system is straining France's finances, too. In 2010, when the then-government passed a law to increase the minimum retirement age to 62 from 60, it hoped to balance the pension system's budget by 2018. But a state agency said in December that the pension system will show a shortfall of around €20 billion in 2020 if nothing more is done. This year, the deficit is estimated to reach €12 billion.Op-ed: when hospitals become killers.
In 2011, the lethal germ known as CRK—short for carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella—raced through the National Institutes of Health Medical Center in Bethesda, Md. Antibiotics couldn't stop it. Infection-control precautions recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention could not contain it. Six patients died because of it, including a 16-year-old boy.
Last week, public-health researchers released alarming data in the journal Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology showing that the same germ that swept through the NIH is invading hospitals across the country. Researchers writing this month in another medical journal, Emerging Infectious Diseases, warn that CRK poses "a major threat to public health."
Since the discovery of CRK in 2000, it has been found predominantly in New York City and the mid-Atlantic region. But Los Angeles County, one of the few places where CRK is being tracked, detected 356 cases in the second half of 2012. "Upwards of fifty percent" of patients who contract CRK die, according to NIH researchers.Op-ed: As contractions go ... zero growth in the fourth quarter, but don't worry, the Fed is here....exactly what I said yesterday: Ben has marching orders to spend as much as he needs to prevent a second consecutive quarter of contraction which is the definition of "recession" in some people's books.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week stayed in a range consistent with job growth and incomes rose in December by the most in eight years, mildly positive signs for a still-fragile economy.And that's the spin: the headline is correct -- jobless claims surge, and the story says the "number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week STAYED in a range consistent with job growth ...."
In a separate report, the Commerce Department said American incomes rose 2.6 percent last month. That was the biggest increase since December 2004 and well above analysts' expectations for a 0.8 percent gain.
However, much of the increases in personal incomes over the last two months have been due to special dividends and accelerated bonuses to beat tax increases that were due to begin this month.
The big rise in incomes suggests total consumer spending power entered the new year on a stronger footing, even if the gains may not have been distributed evenly throughout the workforce.
The economy faces the threat of across-the-board spending cuts scheduled for March, as well as the possibility the government might default later this later year and trigger another recession.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits bounced off five-year lows last week, pulling them back to levels consistent with modest job growth.Last week, the numbers were outstanding, though no one believed them. But had they been accurate, it would have suggested the economy was turning around, at least in terms of unemployment.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 38,000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's claims figure was unrevised.As noted at the top of the post, this is consistent with the government releasing figures before the data is finalized and/or "adjusted." The prior week's claims figure was unrevised. Did they ever revise it?
First time claims benefits (unemployment) jumped to the highest number in five weeks (371,000) and the four-week moving average jumped significantly to 365,750, an increase of almost 7,000.Let's see what the four-week rolling average was:
The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, gained 250 to 352,000, suggesting a steady improvement in labor market conditions.Look at that, again. New claims up by 250. Two observations: first, that's an incredibly small number for an economy the size of the US. That number sounds like it came from a New York City suburb. And then the "roundness" of that number. Not 249, or 251, but 250 exactly. Lots of rounding going on.
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While the Permian Basin is known as the U.S.’ largest oil producer, operations seem to be shifting from the western side of the basin to the eastern side, and the shift has a lot of people preparing for another boom.
The Cline Shale formation, also known as the Lower Wolfcamp or Wolfcamp D, is located on the eastern edge of the Permian Basin. The formation runs about 140 miles north to south and is around 70 miles wide. Counties included in the Cline Shale are Mitchell, Coke, Fisher, Glasscock, Howard, Irion, Nolan, Reagan, Scurry and Sterling. Other reports also mention Upton, Tom Green, Crockett, and Schleicher counties. The formation is said to run 200 to 550 feet deep.
With the Cline Shale becoming more and more popular, many oil companies are moving in and setting up shop.
Some of those companies are Apache Corporation, Laredo Petroleum, Firewheel Energy, LLC and Pioneer Natural Resources. With these large companies moving into the area, Greg Wortham, mayor of Sweetwater, didn’t want the same problems that happened in Midland, Odessa and surrounding towns that weren’t prepared for the oil boom, to occur in towns around him. Worthham formed the Cline Shale Alliance in hopes of bringing together the area’s small towns to start preparing for the next oil boom.April 19, 2014: there are reports that Devon has pulled out of the Cline --
One of the most surprising events is that Devon has all but pulled its operations out of the Cline Shale, predominantly due to "a lot of variability" in production at test sites. While this has tempered expectations for some, supporters of the play say not to be swayed, as larger energy companies have been known to divert their attention from unconventional or unproven plays. Just last year, Royal Dutch Shell disclosed that it would be pulling out of the fastest-growing formation on the planet, the Eagle Ford.June 27, 2013: random update on the Cline. -- 30 billion bbls recoverable -- current estimate
The Cline Shale is about 140 miles long, 70 miles wide, and 200-550 feet thick stretching through the Permian Basin and southward. Test wells are exceeding expectations and indicate the shale could contain 3.6 million barrels of recoverable oil per square mile or as much as 30 billion barrels in total. Yes, billion. That's multiples of the likely production from other well-known shales such as the Bakken up north or the Eagle Ford here in Texas.Fact check, compared to the Bakken:
April 29, 2013: update from Sweetwater, TX, 100 miles ENE of Midland, where it appears they are getting ready to drill the Cline.
- the better Bakken: 6 wells/section x 600K EUR/well = 3.6 million bbls/square mile
- middle Bakken: 60 feet thick; Three Forks: 300 feet thick
- CLR: estimates of 24 billion to 48 billion bbls of recoverable oil
- Williston to Dickinson: 130 miles
- Williston to Stanley: 70 miles
- 30-second sound bite: the Cline is probably another Bakken
Investor site StreetAuthority is gushing over the potential of other shale fields in the United States. It says one shale formation in particular now being explored in Texas could hold as much as 30 billion barrels of recoverable oil and fuel, dwarfing the estimated 4.3 billion barrels in North Dakota's Bakken shale.
Street Authority writes: "Devon's wells show that the formation contains 3.6 million recoverable barrels of oil per square mile. As the Cline is roughly 9,800 square miles in size, this works out to estimated reserves in excess of 30 billion barrels.The Clineshale.com website.
The Cline Shale oil play lying at roughly 9,250 feet below the surface along the eastern flank of the Midland Basin could possibly be a key component for energy independence for the U.S. The play area runs roughly 140 miles north-south and about 70 miles wide through Howard, Glasscock, Reagan, and Sterling Counties.
Devon and Chesapeake recently reported impressive test well results. Devon’s wells show the formation contains 3.6 million barrels of recoverable oil per square mile. A rough approximation, taking into account the 9,800 square mile area of the Cline, indicates over 30 billion barrels of recoverable oil. This exceeds both the Bakken and Eagle Ford by far.
The USGS estimates the Bakken Shale to hold up to 4.3 billion barrels of recoverable oil, and the Eagle Ford has estimates at as much as 7 to 10 billion barrels of total recoverable reserves. John Richels, president of Devon, gave an expected type curve value of 570 MBOE for a Cline Shale well, with 85% being oil and NGLs.
A U.S. farm boom showing few signs of a let-up isn’t translating into more opportunities in one of the most robust areas of the economy. Farmers, ranchers and other agricultural managers will see the steepest decline of any employment category by 2020, losing a projected 96,000 jobs this decade out of 1.2 million positions, part of a broader trend toward less labor in the sector, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The drop comes even as agricultural managers have the highest median wage of any of the top 20 declining categories, at more than $60,000 a year. Farm owners like the Liefers are able to manage larger tracts of land without hiring overseers. Full-time farm managers hired by others can handle more property for more clients, said Jerry Warner, a past president of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, a farm- management organization based in Denver.A chicken and egg problem. Lack of enough farm workers --> need to innovate/automate? Or did innovation/automation --> to decrease in farm workers?
The U.S. economy shrank from October through December for the first time since the recession ended, hurt by the biggest cut in defense spending in 40 years, fewer exports and sluggish growth in company stockpiles. The decline occurred despite faster growth in consumer spending and business investment.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that the economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter. That's a sharp slowdown from the 3.1 percent growth rate in the July-September quarter and the first contraction since the second quarter of 2009.
Economists said the surprise decrease in the nation's gross domestic product wasn't as bad as it looked. The weakness was primarily the result of one-time factors. Government spending cuts and slower inventory growth subtracted a total of 2.6 percentage points from growth.Does that mean excluding these one-time cuts, GDP would have almost tripled analysts' expectations, from 1% (analysts' expectations) to 2.5% (estimates by Obama-friendly economists)? First we had the government publishing unemployment numbers based on estimates from states who never forwarded the data; now we have a new way of measuring GDP: forgeddaboutdaonetimefactors.
Over the next three years seven Gulf Coast region terminal operators will build an estimated 19 MMBbl of new crude oil storage capacity. Those storage expansions are being made in preparation for as much as 3.1 MMb/d of new crude supplies expected into the Gulf Coast refining region over the next two years from new pipeline projects. Today we summarize the efforts that terminal operators are making to get ready for the flood.
The company on Tuesday started offering consumers a new version of Office—the widely used bundle of personal-computer applications—that for the first time arrives along with a version that can be "rented" for a monthly fee, similar to how people subscribe to cable or to Netflix Inc.'s movie service.
Microsoft is pushing hard to get most people to opt for Office 365, as the subscription version is known, for an upfront annual fee of $99.99, or $9.99 a month for a pay-as-you-go option. (People buying Office along with a new computer can pay a $79.99 annual subscription for Office 365.)For no cost, Apple pushes updates of its operating system for free, and almost seamlessly (only asking whether I want to install the update). Of course, operating systems and applications are very different but I don't think average users are going to fall for this. MSFT is hoping DOD falls for it. DOD is going to have make a huge decision on whether they want to spent $99/employee/year for upgrades that almost never matter. In fact, the only reason some folks upgrade is so they can share information with others who have upgraded. MSFT "Office" is generally not backward-compatible.
Unusually frigid and snowy conditions blanketed much of the island of Great Britain in snow earlier this month. The winter wonderland was spotted from above by NASA's Terra satellite on Jan. 26.
The snow started falling mid-month when a storm system blowing in from over the North Atlantic combined with unusually chilly conditions ushered in by a pattern called the Scandinavian Block, according to Accuweather.com. This high-pressure pattern sits in place over Scandinavia and funnels cold air toward the United Kingdom from over the Baltic and western Russia, according to the U.K. Met Office.
Hess beats by $0.40, beats on revs.
Earnings of $1.66 per share, $0.40 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.26; revenues rose 9.9% year/year to $9.7 bln vs the $9.59 bln consensus.
Exploration and Production earnings were $517 mln in the fourth quarter of 2012, compared with $527 mln in the fourth quarter of 2011. Fourth quarter oil and gas production was 396,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 367,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter a year ago, primarily reflecting an increase in production from the Bakken oil shale play and the resumption of operations in Libya, partly offset by the shut-in of the Valhall Field in Norway for the quarter due to the redevelopment project. Net production from the Bakken oil shale play averaged 64,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter of 2012, an increase of 68% from 38,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the same period last year.
During 2012, the Corporation added 214 mln barrels of oil equivalent to proved reserves and sold 83 mln barrels of oil equivalent of proved reserves through asset dispositions. The additions, which are subject to final review, replaced approximately 141 percent of the Corporation's 2012 production, resulting in a reserve life of 10.3 years.
under pressure from an activist investor to break up the company, reported a fourth-quarter profit on Wednesday as production from its wells in North Dakota's Bakken oilfield soared. Hess posted a profit of $566 million, or $1.66 per share, compared with a loss of $131 million, or 39 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 10 percent to $9.69 billion, Hess said.Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)
on Wednesday reported a quarterly profit as the U.S. refiningcompany processed higher amounts of cheaper domestic crude oilin its plants, helping lift refining margins.PSX:
The company reported a fourth-quarter profit of $755 million, or $2.24 per share, compared with a loss of $75 million, or 21 cents per share, a year earlier.
The refiner more than doubled its fourth-quarter dividend to 35 cents per share and said its board approved an additional $2.65 billion share buyback program.
announces fourth-quarter earnings of $708 million and adjusted earnings of $1.3 billion. This compares with earnings of $2.0 billion and adjusted earnings of $379 million during the fourth quarter of 2011. Eleven cents per shares; adjusted: $2.06/share.
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"In other words, because of the Bakken and the Eagle Ford shales and so many other terrific domestic prospects, one of our major refinery powers no longer needs to import expensive oil from other countries to feed its refineries, and this trend is only going to get stronger," Cramer explained.I thought the easy money had been made in the Bakken but it looks like for investors, still opportunities. I'm thinking of Hess, as another example.
Valero reported net income attributable to Valero stockholders of $1.0 billion, or $1.82 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to net income attributable to Valero stockholders of $45 million, or $0.08 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2011. Included in the fourth quarter 2012 results was a noncash asset impairment loss of $37 million after taxes, or $0.06 per share. For the year ended December 31, 2012, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $2.1 billion, or $3.75 per share.So, how did investors react to the news?
Eighty-Eight Oil LLC announced today its plans to construct and operate a unit train facility on BNSF Railway’s mainline near the Guernsey crude oil pipeline hub. The facility will be directly connected to EEOLLC’s existing Guernsey crude oil terminal which has two million barrels of storage and currently receives crude oil from Butte Pipeline, Belle Fourche Pipeline, Platte Pipeline, and the Rocky Mountain Pipeline System.
The Guernsey terminal also maintains truck unloading facilities. The facility will be the first rail transloading terminal capable of loading multiple crude types including those from the Williston Basin (e.g. Bakken), the Powder River Basin (e.g. Niobrara), Southwest Wyoming, Big Horn Basin and Canada.
“Because this terminal is being designed to handle multiple crude types, we are confident of its long term viability,” says Jerry Herz, Superintendent of EEOLLC. “Further, by connecting our terminal to BNSF’s expansive railway system, we can provide producers of the Rocky Mountains and Canada further flexibility in adding value to their production and transporting it to markets throughout the United States.”This is a huge story.
Within a few months of production, even if gas is flared, mineral rights owners are paid for the flared gas at market rates.
Joshua Edwards's eighth-grade paper about the Black Plague came with a McDouble and fries. Joshua sometimes does his homework at a McDonald's restaurant -- not because he is drawn by the burgers, but because the fast-food chain is one of the few places in this southern Alabama city (Citronelle) of 4,000 where he can get online access free once the public library closes.Maybe later. There are a lot of story lines in that article.
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Republican governors of Kansas, Nebraska and Louisiana are pushing to eliminate personal and corporate income taxes, setting up a possible fight with the Obama administration, which has already vowed to reform the nation’s tax code this year. To make up the lost revenue, these governors would raise the state sales tax.Scandinavia. A European nation. I can't make this stuff up. My hunch is that before the day is over, that story will be corrected. One can only hope so. Screenshots are sure nice.
Krugman says the Republican plan to hike state sales tax could be modeled after the European nation Scandinavia, a country with very high sales tax rates and a “less progressive tax system” than the U.S. The revenue generated by the high taxes are used to provide Scandinavian citizens with a “very good social safety net” and more financial security, according to Krugman.
(Interestingly, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. these days trades more like a train stock than anything else, owing to its Burlington Northern railroad division acting as the its biggest source of profits and most of Berkshire's cyclical exposure. Any serious selling in Berkshire based on a cooling railroad sector would be a gift to investors looking to grab this unrivaled collection of assets at an even slimmer premium to book value than it currently commands.)Yes, Berkshire is a railroad stock right now -- and the article failed to mention the Bakken.
This conference is in response to the sudden challenge being faced by U.S. petroleum companies who are pumping crude out of the Bakken shale in North Dakota and Montana. The sudden increase in volume has resulted in the problem that the companies are having problems shipping the crude to the refineries. Truck and rail are being used and the volume has put an enormous strain on the supply of tank cars and available tank trucks. This conference is a follow up to our highly successful 2012 Bakken Crude Oil Logistics Conference, where we had over 135 attendees, numerous sponsors, and a great lineup of speakers. This event is organized to help bring together the crude producers, the rail companies, truckers, barges, and those who provide technology solutions to help develop a more efficient supply chain.
Though air travel emissions now account for only about 5 percent of warming, that fraction is projected to rise significantly, since the volume of air travel is increasing much faster than gains in flight fuel efficiency. (Also, emissions from most other sectors are falling.)I assume when the NY Times says "5 percent of warming" they are converting CO2 emissions to warming. If they are not, it's even more ridiculous. It is estimated that global warming will result in a one to two-degree increase in global temperature over the next century. Let's say five degrees, just to get way outside the range of argument. Five percent of five degrees is ... 0.25 degree; a fourth of a degree.
So if you take five long flights a year, they may well account for three-quarters of the emissions you create. “For many people in New York City, who don’t drive much and live in apartments, this is probably going to be by far the largest part of their carbon footprint,” says Anja Kollmuss, a Zurich-based environmental consultant.Meanwhile, I assume Anja is on the ski slopes today laughing at the crazy Americans who actually worry about these things. Five percent of three percent of three percent of two degrees over the next century. New Yorkers -- some of the highest taxed folks in the world -- who worry about this, or take Anja seriously -- need to move to an income-tax-free state ASAP.
... the Irish material is all spelled out so clearly. This is partly because Irish law codes were the work of a class of legal specialists who seem to have turned the whole thing almost into a form of entertainment, devoting endless hours to coming up with every possible abstract possibility. Some of the provisos are so whimsical ("if stung by another man's bee, one must calculate the extend of the injury, but also, if one swatted the bee in the process, subtract the replacement value of the bee") that one has to assume they were simply jokes.Something tells me that Anja's five percent of three percent of three percent of two degrees over one hundred years is not a joke. But maybe, then again, it is.