Tuesday, December 18, 2012

For Investors Only: Heckmann and Abraxas

Link to SeekingAlpha.com.

I've had several "for investors only" today, so why not another.

This one on Heckmann and Abraxas.  A fair amount of Bakken involvement for each.

Again, the disclaimer: this is not an investment site; do not make any investment decisions on what you read at this site.

What We Learned From the Los Angeles Port Strike ...

... how to do it on the East Coast (though I doubt "they" need any pointers).

Unions ready to shut down the entire east coast and gulf coast ports. I don't know if that includes oil tankers.
Contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association and United States Maritime Alliance broke off today, raising the likelihood of a Maine-to-Texas dock strike at year-end.
Wow, it never quits. The west coast longshoremen went on strike: they wouldn't accept the $195,000/year offer. Up from $165,000 if I recall correctly.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Wednesday

Wednesday Morning
Bakken Operations

Active rigs: 187 (steady, but trending up)

Wells coming off the confidential list today, Wednesday, December 19, 2012:
  • 20795, 1,895, Whiting, 3 J Trust 34-8PH, Bell, t6/12; cum 84K 10/12;
  • 22372, 1,775, Whiting, 3J Trust 24-8PH, Bell, t6/12; cum 88K 10/12;
  • 22392, 1,382, Zenergy, Wahlstrom 3-10H, Elk, t8/12; cum 26k 10/12;
  • 22585, drl, BEXP, Lonnie 15-22 4TFH, Ragged Butte,
  • 22680, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Clermont 18-19-158N-100W, Wildcat,
  • 22847, 1,582, XTO, Kaldahl 34X-11C, Dollar Joe, t9/12; cum 18K 10/12;
  • Funny how fast things can change. Just a few months ago (September 14, 2012) there were five rigs working Dollar Joe oil field. Tonight, there is one -- just one -- rig in Dollar Joe. It looks like, with the exception of one or two sections, this entire field is not held by production.
  • For newbies: Bell field is the field that attracted Whiting's interest in the Pronghorn; enough to pay a bonus of $12,500/acre.
  • Elk field needs to be updated; the "grasslands" south of Williston.
This is some preliminary data:

20795, conf, Whiting, 3 J Trust 34-8PH, Bell,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

22372, conf, Whiting, 3J Trust 24-8PH, Bell,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

22392, conf, Zenergy, Wahlstrom 3-10H, Elk,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

22847, conf, XTO, Kaldahl 34X-11C, Dollar Joe,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Des Moines, Iowa, To Feel Global Warming -- Not A Bakken Story


December 20, 2012: the blizzard is raging. (the link may be dynamic)

Blizzard conditions with heavy snow and high winds are impacting eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, portions of Michigan and northwestern Illinois with snow-packed roads.
The heaviest snow is falling at a rate of up to an inch per hour in this zone. There have been reports of thundersnow in some of the heaviest bands of snow. Gusts up to 50 mph are causing blowing snow, lowering the visibility to less than 1/4 of a mile.
December 19, 2012: how big is this storm gonna be? Here's the forecast for Wisconsin (sent in by Don):
A dangerous winter storm will impact the area tonight through Thursday. Travel will become impossible and potentially life-threatening by late tonight through ...Thursday. Plan on whiteout conditions and 2 to 4 foot snow drifts in open areas. Snowfall totals will range from 14 to 18 inches across portions of northeast Iowa into southwest and central Wisconsin. 6 to 12 inches of accumulation are expected across southeast Minnesota into west central and central Wisconsin. Winds will increase to 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 mph, leading to blowing and drifting snow tonight through Thursday.
December 19, 2012: looks like this is going to be one BIG winter storm.  By the way, there is a great op-ed in today's WSJ on global warming.  And here's another.  I will post the highlights soon, but if you can't wait, go to the links. Global demand for coal will rise 2.6% over the next six years; but not in the US. What's wrong with this picture?
Last year alone, demand for coal rose 4.3 percent, with 67 percent of that increase coming from China.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is the only region where coal usage isn’t expected to increase. The domestic coal market continues to face competition from cheap natural gas, and coal demand in the U.S. is expected to drop 2.5 percent a year, the report said.

Original Post

Link here to a weather channel. The link may be dynamic. For Des Moines:
  • Wednesday: Rain and snow, mainly after 4 pm. High near 39. Light northeast wind increasing to 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Wednesday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Windy, with a north northwest wind 14 to 19 mph increasing to 21 to 26 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
  • Thursday: Snow before 7am, then areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow between 7am and 1pm, then areas of blowing snow after 1pm. Temperature falling to around 21 by 11am. Wind chill values as low as 5. Windy, with a northwest wind 23 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Meanwhile, nationally:
Coastal rain and inland snow are likely across New England on Tuesday, with heavy snowfall possible across northern Maine. Meanwhile, a winter storm continues to affect the central Rockies, with up to a foot of snow possible in parts of Utah and Colorado, and as much as 2-3 feet possible on mountain peaks. This storm is forecast to move into the Plains and Upper Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday.
 It looks like the central Rockies storm will move into the Plains, but not into North Dakota.

I assume these storms are normal for this time of the year.

For Investors Only: Connecting Utica Dots; Utica -- $10,000 / Mineral Acre


December 20, 2012: regarding Gulfport (see below); from Yahoo! In-Play --
Gulfport Energy announces acquisition of additional Utica acreage, provides 2013 production guidance: Co announced that on December 17, 2012 it entered into a definitive agreement to purchase approximately 30,000 net acres in the Utica Shale in Eastern Ohio for approximately $302 million. The parties have now amended that agreement to provide for Gulfport's acquisition of approximately 7,000 additional net acres for approximately $70 million, resulting in a total acquisition price of approximately $372 million. The transaction, which will increase Gulfport's leasehold interests in the Utica Shale to approximately 137,000 gross (106,000 net) acres, excludes 14 existing wells, along with certain acreage surrounding each well. The proposed transaction is expected to close prior to year-end. Gulfport will continue to serve as operator of its acreage in the Utica Shale. 
December 19, 2012: add this to the mix of stories below. Statoil has just announced it acquired 70,000 acres in the Marcellus.  $590 million. "Liquid-rich part of the Marcellus."  $8,500/acre. Rivals the prices paid for the Bakken. One certainly does not get the feeling that the price of oil is going to trend down, nor that the demand for oil is going to trend down.

Original Post

A reader sent a short comment earlier today mentioning the companies below. I don't follow these companies, and I don't follow the Utica much, so I would not have noticed this. But the reader suggests there is a lot of activity (headlines, share prices, additional acreage; raising capital) in this arena.

Gulfport Energy Corp (GPOR): Gulfport acquires some Utica acreage -- Motley Fool.
With the amount of expansion currently under way from companies in the Utica shale, particularly the very oil-rich western section in Ohio, it's looking like the region could become the next Bakken. And Gulfport (NASDAQ: GPOR), one of the top oil companies in 2012, has just upped its stake in the area by 30,000 acres, at a cost of $300 million. In this video, Motley Fool energy analyst Joel South takes us through some of the plans the company has for the new land, and how much the capital expenditures required for the growth are going to cost.
Magnum Hunter (MHR): Why MHR popped -- Motley Fool. Popped about 10%.
UBS initiated coverage on the stock with a buy rating and a $6 price target. That gave investors enough to jump in today even though there wasn't any significant news from the company.  
Richest oil play in the US (ERF): Motley Fool.
... energy analyst Joel South discusses Enerplus'  recent decision to sell its valuable oil assets in Manitoba for $220 million in order to reduce its debt as well as expand its working interest in the company's Sleeping Giant play in the Williston Basin.  At 4.2 times annual funds flow, the increased position in the Williston provides Enerplus with tremendous value in additional to centralizing its operations. Enerplus also see additional benefits from this light oil play with infill drilling in addition to using enhanced oil recover techniques to increase production.
Evergreen Energy (EVEP) -- SeekingAlpha.com -- Utica shale for a 50% discount.
One company that's well positioned to benefit from interest in the Utica shale is EV Energy Partners, an upstream Master Limited Partnership with a $2.5 Billion market cap. EVEP currently holds a vast working interest in the Utica shale, which it plans to sell because the speculative nature of the play makes it inappropriate for a distribution-focused MLP. As we'll see, the market has priced EVEP's Utica acreage far below its likely sale price. A sale that even comes close to previous prices gives EVEP enormous upside potential.
BP set to join "gold rush" in the Utica -- Columbus Business First --
BP Plc has started moving into its new operations center in the Youngstown area, signaling that the world’s mega-oil companies are coming to Ohio to drill for oil and natural gas in the Utica shale play.
BP said Monday it plans to begin drilling operations in eastern Ohio as early as January.
PDC Energy (PDCE): up 2.3% on a day when the market is down.

Rex Energy (REXX): five commodity stocks moving on news -- SeekingAlpha.com.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read at this site. "Anon 1" some a short note and listed many of these companies as seeing a lot of action: either share prices popping or headlines of activity. If you scroll these and go back to the links, one starts to see a number of dots that might be worth connecting.

Again, I, personally, am not interested in these companies as investments. I don't invest in any of these listed, and have no plans to do so. I am interested in these because a) readers generally have some interesting insight to stories that I miss; and, b) they put the Bakken in perspective.

Rate of Return on Spearfish Wells -- The Williston Basin

A reader alerted me to this. Very, very impressive.

Surge Energy Presentations, December, 2012, go to slide 12. These are Spearfish wells on the Canadian side of the Williston Basin (yes, part of the Williston Basin), the Waskada (Spearfish):
  • these wells cost about $1.3 million (target capital costs/well)
  • net present value (NPV) of these wells: $2.1 million
  • they payback that $2 million in about 18 months (less than 2 years)
  • rate of return: >55%
Compare to middle Bakken wells: about $10 million/well.

Apple Computer tries to achieve a 45% margin. Just saying.

Tilting At Windmills -- Not The Bakken; An "Energy" Story Out of Colorado

Colorado Springs, CO, population: 420,000
Number of protesters: "about 20" -- the number was probably rounded up -- see photo.

A thank you to a reader for sending me the link.
This used to be a land proud of its oil barons. Now the energy industry that has brought wealth and jobs across the interior West is prompting angry protests by citizens sporting gas masks and using bullhorns at public hearings.
A generation after the fictional oil tycoons of the TV soap “Dynasty” gave Denver’s oil and gas industry a glamorous sheen, the Rocky Mountain region appears to be questioning its romance with the industry. New drilling technology has moved oil and gas production from the sparsely populated plains, where oil rigs are embraced as job creators, closer to cities and suburbs. Now, conflicts are increasing along the populous eastern fringe of the Rockies.
Gas-mask-wearing protesters are confronting city and county officials considering whether to limit or ban hydraulic fracturing, a drilling procedure in which water, sand and chemicals are forced deep underground to pry oil and gas from rock. Fracking, as the procedure is called, has led to an energy boom in areas previously unattractive to energy producers, but it is also raising concerns about air and water quality.
The protests in Colorado have gotten intense....
Something tells me the average Colorado resident prefers to have a SUV if given the option. 

KOG Ups CAPEX From $750 Million to $775 Million for 2013; Plans 61 Net Operated Wells. Guidance: Exceed 80% Y/Y Oil Production Increase

From Yahoo! In-Play (sent to me by a reader -- thank you).
Kodiak Oil & Gas approves a $775M 2013 capital expense budget, up from $750M in 2012, including $600M toward drilling and completing 61 net operated wells. KOG projects to average 29K-31K boe/day in sales volumes for 2013, which would exceed 80% Y/Y growth.
I thought this might be coming based on recent daily activity reports and permitting activity.

Renewable Energy Causing Problems For Germany

Link here to Der Spiegel.com.
Behind this worry stands the transition to renewable energy laid out by Chancellor Angela Merkel last year in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Though the transition has been sluggish so far, Merkel set the ambitious goals of boosting renewable energy to 35 percent of total power consumption by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050 while phasing out all of Germany's nuclear power reactors by 2022.
The problem is that wind and solar farms just don't deliver the same amount of continuous electricity compared with nuclear and gas-fired power plants. To match traditional energy sources, grid operators must be able to exactly predict how strong the wind will blow or the sun will shine.
But such an exact prediction is difficult. Even when grid operators are off by just a few percentage points, voltage in the grid slackens. That has no affect on normal household appliances, such as vacuum cleaners and coffee machines. But for high-performance computers, for example, outages lasting even just a millisecond can quickly trigger system failures.

A survey of members of the Association of German Industrial Energy Companies (VIK) revealed that the number of short interruptions to the German electricity grid has grown by 29 percent in the past three years. Over the same time period, the number of service failures has grown 31 percent, and almost half of those failures have led to production stoppages. Damages have ranged between €10,000 and hundreds of thousands of euros, according to company information.
Sounds like Germans are going to be buying a lot of surge protectors and uninterrupted back-up power supplies. And personal / private generators, I suppose. 

Fifteen (15) New Permits -- The Williston Basin

Bakken Operations

Active rigs: 186 (wow, that's surprising, well above the intra-boom low of 181)

Fifteen (15) new permits --
  • Operators: Burlington Resources (6), Oasis (3), XTO (2), American Eagle (2), BEXP (2)
  • Fields: Hawkeye (McKenzie), Willow Creek (Williams), Painted Woods (Williams), Colgan (Divide), Alkali Creek (Mountrail)
  • Comments: The six BR permits are all in the northeast quadrant of section 15-152-95; there is one producing well in that section:
  • 18020, 2,182, BR, Badlands 21-15H, Hawkeye, t2/10; cum 228K 10/12;
No wells came off the confidential list today.

No producing wells were completed.

The Denbury Onshore Shipton well was posted as a dry well; reported earlier here -- information sent in by a reader (thank you).

The True Costs of Solar Energy Start To Come Clearer

Wow, it never quits.

Solar power will cost California "non-users" as much as $700 million annually.
Pacific Gas & Electric, the state's biggest utility, will pass on about $700 million in annual costs to people without solar systems when the state hits the cap, according to Denny Boyles, a spokesman. Southern California Edison will transfer about $400 million annually, according to spokesman David Song, for a total of $1.3 billion from the three utilities.
That's about 3.9 percent of the $33.5 billion spent on electricity in 2010 in California, based on the latest figures available from the U.S. Energy Department.
"The problem exacerbates with each new system that goes on a roof," said Mark Bachman, an analyst at Avian Securities Inc.
"Utilities will need to get reimbursed for their grid costs by a shrinking number of consumers."
California is already among the top five states for most expensive electric rates, about 14 cents/kwh; compare to North Dakota's 7 cents/kwh.

Also, as posted earlier, renewable energy will actually increase requirements for fossil fuels.

So the "haves" will pass on higher utility costs to "not-haves." 

My hunch is that GE makes the new meters that have to be retro-fitted on all the homes that put solar panels on their roofs. Good, bad, or indifferent when it comes to solar energy, it is what it is.

Master Limited Partnerships: Natural Gas Gathering, Crude Oil Shipment

Link to SeekingAlpha.com: MLPs.
According to PIMCO, the pipelines segment of the energy sector is attractive because of "strong asset quality, long-term contracts, noncyclical cash flows and significant growth in pipeline capacity."
Indeed, pipeline owners have stable business models that depend more on the volume of transported products than on product prices.
That is exactly why, despite the plunge in natural gas prices caused by the surge in the supply, pipeline operators have continued to grow their top and bottom lines. Moreover, margins are not under the pressure, as the competitive pressures are almost absent because pipeline operators usually service different geographical areas.
(Still, it should be noted that some pipeline operators may include the gathering and processing operations, which do expose them to short-term fluctuations in commodity prices).
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here.

Random Look At Four New EOG Wells Still On Confidential List


January 20, 2013: IPs are not yet provided but production runs are now available for these four wells. It appears natural gas pipelines are not yet run out to these wells:

20577, conf, EOG, Bear Den 19-2116H, Spotted Horn, middle Bakken, running north; short lateral but sundry form suggests 1280-acre spacing if approved by NDIC,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

20578, conf, EOG, Bear Den 18-21H, Spotted Horn, middle Bakken, sMarch 15; TD, April 3;  short lateral running south, but sundry form suggests 1280-acre spacing if approved by NDIC;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

21688, conf, EOG, Bear Den 103-21H, Spotted Horn; sMay 22; TD, May23; Three Forks, short lateral running south, but sundry form suggests 1280-acre spacing if approved by NDIC; gas, 4,000 to 5,000 units with 5 - 10 foot flares:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

21689, conf, EOG, Bear Den 104-2116H, Spotted Horn, short lateral, running north, Three Forks, but sundry form suggests 1280-acre spacing if approved by NDIC; running north:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

December 19, 2012: I posted this video a long, long time ago, but with the incredible Bear Den wells (see below), I thought it would be "fun" to post this video again, for those who may have missed it:
Bear Den Trucking, North Dakota Bakken

Original Post

A reader alerted me to these four wells, confirmed at the NDIC website. It appears that October was the first month of production; I did not see these wells on the September report.

These are short laterals, but the NDIC GIS map suggests they are sited in the middle of a 1280-acre spacing unit. They will come off the confidential list in late February/early March, 2013.
  • 20577, conf, EOG, Bear Den 19-2116H, Spotted Horn, monthly -15,492 bbls
  • 20578, conf, EOG, Bear Den 18-21H, Spotted Horn, monthly - 22,546 bbls
  • 21688, conf, EOG, Bear Den 103-21H, Spotted Horn, monthly - 17,150 bbls
  • 21689, conf, EOG, Bear Den 104-2116H, Spotted Horn, monthly - 18,395 bbls
For newbies, these are huge wells based on the IPs, but eventually they, too, will experience a decline. And, again, these are short laterals. One can't simply double these production numbers for a hypothetical long horizontal, but some might do that to get a rough idea how these would compare to a long horizontal.

It looks like, based on the legal names, two will be short laterals running north, and two will be short laterals running south; based on legal names, it looks like two will be Three Forks wells, and two will be middle Bakken wells, but simply a hunch. I could be way wrong.

These wells are very, very close to the "Helis" Grail to the west.

Interesting, and coincidentally, I was running through the share prices of various Bakken-centric producers earlier today; EOG was having a pretty good day, flirting with it's all-time high.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read at this site.

Tectonic Changes in Crude Oil Loading and Unloading: Plains All American Rail


December 24, 2012: Plains All American rail -- SeekingAlpha.com
The move highlights the transformational currents under cutting the pipeline business. As crude oil has been unable to transverse the current pipeline system to reach the refineries on the coasts, the railroads have stepped up with more direct routes that bypass the congested Cushing, OK oil hub. Not only is it a boon to railroads struggling with weak coal shipments, but exploration and refinery companies are access to better pricing than currently available. Is this a solid long-term plan or short-term moves that will back fire? Spending limited capital on short-term benefits can have lasting impacts to asset quality.  
The Presentation

You can see the PAA Rail presentation here, December 13, 2012.

Click on PDF link when you get to the PAA webpage. The presentation shows PAA Rail with two oil-loading rail terminals in North Dakota:
  • Manitou, ND: capacity, 20,000 bopd; future capacity, 2H12: 65,000 bopd (not part of the 5-terminal deal; already owned by PAA (if I understand the presentation correctly)
  • Van Hook, ND: capcity, 35,000 bopd; future capacity, 2H13: 65,000 bopd  (acquired in most recent deal)
There will be two loading terminals in the Niobrara:
  • Tampa, CO: expected capacity, 65,000 bopd, expected operational, 2H13
  • Carr, CO; current capacity, 15,000 bopd; future capacity, 2H13, 30,000+ bopd (acquired in the five-terminal deal
The terminal acquired in this 5-terminal deal in the Eagle Ford:
  • Gardendale, TX: current capacity, 40,000 bopd
The unloading facilities:
  • Bakersfield, CA
  • St James, LA
  • Yorktown, VA (not part of the 5-terminal deal)
For newbies: think of 65,000 bbls of oil in one 100-unit train. (note: the link is to a post more than a year old, so prices have probably changed)

Original Post

Back on December 7, 2012, I posted the "biggest story of the day," the Plains All American deal to buy five (5) crude oil rail terminals serving the Eagle Ford, the Bakken, and the Niobrara.

Three quick bullets:
  • the Eagle Ford will likely surpass the Bakken
  • regular readers already know the potential of the Bakken
  • yesterday, the story that Niobrara estimates have soared
Now, today, Motley Fool has a story on the PAA / crude oil rail terminals.
Plains picked up five crude oil rail terminals from the U.S. Development group for $500 million. Four of the terminals are operating, and the fifth is under construction.
Three loading terminals: three terminals are for loading oil, one each in the Eagle Ford, Bakken Shale, and Colorado's Niobrara region.
Two unloading terminals: the two unloading terminals are in St. James, LA, and Bakersfield, CA.
Once the acquisition is official, Plains rail business will sport some impressive stats, including terminals on the East, West, and Gulf coasts, a crude oil loading capacity of 250,000 barrels per day, and an unloading capacity of 350,000 bpd.
For those of us with a passion for analyst expectations, Credit Suisse responded to the deal by increasing its 2013 and 2014 EBITDA estimates for Plains by $85 million and $98 million, respectively. It popped next year's EPS estimate up $0.19 for good measure.
  • Bakken oil to Yorktown on the East Coast,
  • Niobrara oil to Bakersfield on the West Coast, and
  • Eagle Ford oil to the Gulf Coast
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Make no investment decisions based on what you read at the site.

Earnings: 4Q12

4Q12 Earnings

All 4Q12 earnings will be reported at this page; link will be on sidebar at the right, under "Earnings Central." When we start to see earnings reports for this quarter, I will move "Earnings Central" to the top of the sidebar until the earning seasons is over.

I don't have time to check/update earnings on all companies listed below. If you see one that I have missed, feel free to send it in (anonymous comment or by e-mail) and I will post it.

Comment: companies are starting to warn about 4Q12 earnings. First was SLB, then BHI.

Miscellaneous articles:
General update:

Alcoa: earnings in-line; revenues top forecasts

Week of January 14 - January 18 in bold
EPS estimates in parentheses following the ticker symbol (according to Yahoo!Finance)

AXAS: Abraxas Petroleum chalked up revenue of $19.1 million. The seven analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ foresaw a top line of $18.2 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 22% higher than the prior-year quarter's $15.6 million. EPS came in at -$0.03. The nine earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.00 per share. Non-GAAP EPS were -$0.03 for Q4 against -$0.12 per share for the prior-year quarter. GAAP EPS were -$0.13 for Q4 versus -$0.06 per share for the prior-year quarter.; earnings call; boe flat over past three years, but decrease in NG offset by increase in liquids (good news); looking for 5,000 boepd exit rate by end of 1Q13; Last year, we participated in 27 outside-operated Bakken Three Forks wells. And so far this year, we've participated in 11 more. Generally, no one represents a large capital commitment, but together they do. That's a planning and budgeting issue. We like to be in better control of our capital expenditure plus overall operations, so we've made the decision to sell most of our non-op Bakken interests. The frac on the Joy went off without a hitch and the well's been on production ever since except for some weather and minor workover shut-ins. The Raven 2H and 3H, we weren't so lucky. Both encountered downhaul mechanical issues that required remedial work that resulted in a significant settlement with our third-party service provider, I might add. The fracs were completed in February, and both wells have been on production since. We're not as happy with the frac on the 2H as we were with the 3H. But the 2H is producing on our type curve while the 3H is producing well above our type curve.

BAX ($1.26):  January 24

BEXP: see STO below

BHI (61 cents):  January 23, before market open --

BK (54 cents): earnings in-line; 53 cents; BK down almost 3% on the market;

CHK: beats estimates -- almost double;

CLNE:  March 12

CLR: press release; "the market" was enthusiastic; webcast February 28;

CNP: beats by 10 cents; transcript; Motley Fool;

COP: beats by a penny; but guidance down; share price hit; transcript;

Crescent Point:

CRR (CARBO Ceramics) (86 cents): Carbo Ceramics reports EPS in-line, beats on revs
CVX ($3.00): $3.70; link here; transcript;

DNR: beats, 36 cents vs 29 cents; transcript;

DVN: February 20

ECA: April 18

EEP: February 11 (webcast February 14)

ENB: misses by 2 cents; transcript here;

EOG: beats by 26 cents; huge quarter; raises dividend; transcript here.

EPD (65 cents): Enterprise Products beats by $0.02, misses on revs

ERF:  February 25

GEOI (bought by Halcon [HK], below)


HAL (61 cents):  72 cents; topped expectations; HAL surged in trading.

HES ($1.25):$1.66 vs $0.39 a year earlier; cites huge Bakken production; Yahoo! In-Play;

HP ($1.29): beats by $0.11, beats on revs:

HK (Halcon; previously GEOI): February 28; before market opens

Kinder Morgan - KMP (66 cents): January 14

KOG: missed on revenue and earnings, but still huge; 11 cents vs 12 cents (analysts) and loss of one penny a year earlier; transcript;


LINE: February 18

MDU: loses a penny/share on write-down; $1.15 vs $1.19 a year earlier after adjustments; share price up; investors like guidance;

MMR (McMoRan) (- 1 cent): came in exactly on target; lost a penny; compared to earning 16 cents the same quarter last year;

MPC (Marathon Petroleum) ($2.09): $2.24; compared with a loss of 21 cents one year earlier; cheap domestic oil replaced expensive foreign oil; doubled its dividend; announced a 2.65 billion share buyback;

MRO (Marathon Oil): misses by 12 cents; beats on revenues;

MUR ($1.33): January 30

NBL:  February 7

NBR: beats by 15 cents; press release;

NFX: 4Q12/2013 full year;

NOG: beats by 7 cents; press release; (flashback, this was 3Q12: 27 cents vs 22 cents 2Q12; beats by a penny; transcript;)

NOV: $1.56; nice numbers but shares drop;

OAS:  press release; year-end review by Z-Man (Steve Zachritz); beats on both top and bottom lines; transcript; 49 cents vs 47 cents (analysts);

OKE:  press release; earnings transcript;

OKS:  February 25; as a dividend play;

OXY ($1.67) : $1.83; press release here.
PAA:  beats by 3 cents; beats on revenues;

PSX ($1.67):  $2.06; announces fourth-quarter earnings of $708 million and adjusted earnings of $1.3 billion. This compares with earnings of $2.0 billion and adjusted earnings of $379 million during the fourth quarter of 2011. Eleven cents/share; adjusted, $2.06.

QEP: beats on top and bottom lines; press release;

RIG: February 24

SD: press release;

SLB ($1.08): "surges" past expectations on top and bottom line; $1.02; Motley Fool here; increases dividend

SM: beats on both top and bottom line; 45 cents vs 24 cents (analysts); transcript;

SRE: beats by 10 cents; transcript;



STO (BEXP):  May 3

STR:  February 11

T (45 cents): misses by a penny; but revenues better than expected; strong growth in wireless and U-Verse;

TPLM: April 15

UNP: beats expectations; trading at all-time highs;

USEG:  March 11

VLO: reported net income attributable to Valero stockholders of $1.0 billion, or $1.82 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to net income attributable to Valero stockholders of $45 million, or $0.08 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2011.  Included in the fourth quarter 2012 results was a noncash asset impairment loss of $37 million after taxes, or $0.06 per share.
For the year ended December 31, 2012, net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $2.1 billion, or $3.75 per share; transcript;


WFT: February 19

WHX:  March 15


WLL: press release, beats by 9 cents; transcript;

WMB: press release; impacted by drastically lower propane, ethane prices; misses on revenue and earnings; 25 cents vs 26 cents (analysts); transcript;

WPX: misses by 11 cents; press release;

XOM: beats ($2.20 vs $1.97); earnings up 6%; transcript;

 XLNX (37 cents): Xilinx beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides Q4 revs below consensus 36.44 +0.24 : Reports Q3 (Dec) earnings of $0.38 per share, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.37; revenues fell 0.3% year/year to $509.8 mln vs the $527.33 mln consensus.

Still Another Example of the Bakken's Effect on the National Economy

Link here to Bloomberg.com about American Railcar Industries' interest in rival Greenbrief.
Greenbrier has been struggling with moderating demand this year from oil companies.
The Lake Oswego, Oregon-based company grew rapidly in 2011 as strong demand for railcars to transport crude oil and sand for hydraulic fracturing enabled it to ramp up production and raise prices.
The company said last month it received orders for 2,900 railcars during the fourth quarter ended August, nearly half of what it got a year earlier.

Back Up to 185 Active Rigs

An interesting jump from a recent intra-boom low of 181 active rigs, and for newbies: several "North Dakota" rigs have moved across the state line to Montana.

Random Note Comparing COP Bakken Production To An Overseas Prospect

Don sent me a throwaway article on a COP sale of asssets, but it gave me an opportunity to compare COP's Bakken production with this particular COP overseas (Algerian) prospect.

It is now difficult for me to sort out COP and BR now that I've learned that COP bought 50% of Corral Creek (or Bakken in general; I forget the details) from BR (and BR is a wholly-owned subsidiary of COP, but be that as it may).

From my data base at the blog, regarding COP (BR) (I still lump the two):
  • 3Q12 earnings call: 620,000 net acres; 26,000 boepd; ramped up from five to eight rigs; 
  • 626,000 net acres, COP/CEO at Houston conference, May 16, 2012
  • 460,000 net acres (Investopedia, March 29, 2011; Annual Report, 2010)
  • Looking to acquire more, Annual Report, 2010
  • 8 rigs (May, 2012); looking to ramp up to 9 - 10 rigs (same link)
From the Bakken, BR produces about 26,000 boepd (last reporting period)

From the throwaway article linked above:
ConocoPhillips’ 2012 net production from the [Algerian] fields was the equivalent of 11,000 barrels of oil a day.
And I bet it's a lot more grief to manage/drill Algerian oil fields than North Dakota oil fields.

Economic Development in Dickinson: LTR Moving, Expanding

Best data point in the article -- origin of Light Tower Rentals:
LTR is planting roots in Dickinson. The oil field rental company broke ground on a new facility in the Five Diamond Development ....

LTR, which started as Light Tower Rentals in 1994 in Odessa, Texas by John Avary and Ted Hogan, rents not only light towers and generators, but winch trucks, heaters and a slew of other Oil Patch needs, according to its website.
This is a new facility. LTR had been located off Highway 22.

And more:
The light towers are composed of four lamps similar to those used on athletic fields for night games, he said. The 26-foot mast holds 1,250 watt light bulbs. The generators range from 70,000 to 300,000 watts.
LTR rents to anyone who needs the equipment they provide, including road crews, Slavey said.
“When they were doing (Highway) 22 up here all the light towers … were ours,” he said.

How Important Is The Bakken? Very -- SeekingAlpha on Nucor Steel

Link here to SeekingAlpha.com.

Wow, I think back on all the folks who said the Bakken was all hype, only affecting North Dakota, and then, even that, not much. But now another example of how the Bakken has positively affected the entire nation: the shale gas boom brings hope for Nucor. The Bakken is NOT mentioned in this article, but something tells me Nucor is in the Williston Basin. Smile.

RBN: Tectonic Changes in Storage and Distribution of US Energy

Unless I missed them, I did not see any wells coming off the confidential list today.

RBN Energy: a look at Magellan Midstream Partners; the company has a leading position in crude storage and distribution in:
  • Cushing
  • Houston
  • Corpus Christi
Coming on line in the near future:
  • the Longhorn Reversal project, first phase, initial, 75K bbls/day; from Crane in the Permian Basin to Houson (early 2013)
  • the Seaway pipeline from Cushing to Houston wil expand from 150K to 140K bbls/day (early 2013)
  • the Double Eagle Pipeline in South Texas to start delivering 100K bbls/day of condensate to Corpus Christi
Magellan Midstream Partners assets were originally part of Williams Energy network.
Just two years ago, Magellan could comfortably have been described as a refined products distribution company with a network of 50 terminals and 9600 miles of pipelines stretching through the center of the US from Grand Forks, ND to Houston, TX
During 2011 about 77 percent of the company’s operating margin came from the refined products pipeline system. 
In 2010 however, Magellan made a strategic purchase from BP of 7.8 MMBbl of crude oil storage in Cushing, OK as well as pipelines linking several refineries in Houston and Texas City. Since that asset purchase, Magellan’s has concentrated its expansion investment on crude oil storage and distribution. By the end of 3Q2012 Magellan’s crude assets still only represented 10 percent of the company’s operating margin but 85 percent of their $1.3 B expansion budget is devoted to expanding these crude oil assets.