Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Domestic Politics Here?

Link to
Moreover, [CVX] is expected to strengthen its position in the oil market. In our opinion, the high exposure of the company in deepwater exploration would prove to be instrumental in driving its future growth. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) imposed a ban on awarding new contracts in the United States to BP due to the tragic Gulf of Mexico oil spill incident. We believe Chevron is in a good place to win the contracts being denied to BP in the auction expected to take place in March next year. This would help the company obtain some of BP's market share and start supplying oil to the United States government and armed forces.
"Start supplying oil to the United States government and armed forces." ????

Spacing In The Bakken -- Idle Chatter Once Again -- But It's So Much Fun

Back on June 23, 2012, the MDW poll asked the question whether a mineral owner would prefer 640-, 1280-, or 2560-acre spacing, or does it even manner with regard to the Bakken boom? I don't remember the results but I seem to recall it was something like 70-30 with the vast majority preferring smaller spacing units.

I am not a mineral owner, so I don't have a dog in that fight, but I was asking the question from the perspective of a 65-year-old male with a desire to see at least one well on "his" land ("his" mineral rights) before he began his Long Rest.

Again, this is just idle chatter. There is no "right" answer.

But this is why I asked.

Now, remember, once there is production in any one well in a spacing unit, there is no urgency to drill another well in terms of losing the lease. If the operator has a producing well, he may or may not be inclined to drill another well any time soon. It is very possible that any mineral owner with just a few mineral acres might be lucky to see one well on his "land." Based on comments, some folks have waited a lifetime for a well on "their land."

In the original post, I included the section and the permit numbers, but I thought that might make it too personal. For that reason, I have removed "identifying data" so as not to bring in the current "owner" of that section.

So, then look at section xx-1xx-9X, in the xxxxx oil field. There is one producing well in that section, #xxxxx, spudded back in 2008 - 2009 time frame on 640-acre spacing. And that's the only well that's been drilled in that section all these years. So, if the original owner had 640 mineral acres in this section, he had at least one well, with royalty checks from one well. And royalty checks which have been decreasing significantly after that first year or so: from 9,000 bbls of oil per month back in April of 2009, to 2,000 bbls of oil per month in October, 2012.

But, then, wait, what's this? Another check, and another check? Sometime between 2009 and 2012, section xx-1xx-9x became part of a 4-section spacing unit. And two more wells, sited in other sections, are providing royalties because they are part of 2560-acre spacing unit. So, now this gentleman who was kinda hoping for just one well before his Long Rest is now bragging about three wells from which he is collecting royalties.

And, not only that, there are seven more permits/wells in that 2560-acre spacing unit that will be drilled in the next six months or so. By the end of 2013, this gentleman can brag about his nine wells. And only two will actually be sited in his section where his farmstead is. All because of that 2560-acre spacing.

Granted, there are other issues like lease bonuses, and percent of each well. But right now, this snapshot in time for this 65-year-old gentleman, he has one producing short-lateral well that was drilled in 2009. If there had been no change in the spacing unit size, it's very possible that's all he would have for the next 'umpteen' years.

Again, with 640-acre spacing, this gentleman has a single producing well, and that's it. With 2560-acre spacing, he will soon be receiving royalties from nine (9) wells. If he's also the surface owner, it's even better: seven of these nine wells will not be on his land. Smile.

Enbridge: Update On Southern Access Extension

Yahoo! In-Play:
Enbridge launches open season for Southern Access Extension: Co announced a binding open season to solicit commitments from shippers for capacity on the proposed Southern Access Extension pipeline, to be constructed, owned, and operated by U.S. subsidiary Enbridge Pipelines (Illinois) L.L.C. The new pipeline will transport crude oil from Pontiac, Illinois, at Enbridge's Flanagan Terminal, where it will receive crude oil from Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P.'s Lakehead System, to Patoka, Illinois. The 165-mile (265-kilometer), 24-inch diameter pipeline will be constructed as a stand-alone project with an anticipated in service date of early 2015.
This is really, really cool. MDW just blogged about this extension a few days ago (December 7, 2012, to be exact):
  • a 265 km, 24-in od, Southern Access Extension Pipeline from Flanagan, IL, to Patoka, IL; estimated $800 million; initial capacity will be 300,000 bopd; contract for supply will be Marathon Petroleum
  • Enbridge could increase capacity if demand is warranted (additional horsepower or increasing od to 30 inches
  • Subtotal: $0.8 billion

Catching Up -- Nothing To Do With The Bakken; ObamaCliff; Interest Rates At Zero Forever; Omaha Steaks

I was gone most of the evening. So much to catch up on. I might just hit the high points; go back and fill it out later. Or not. So lots of disjointed thoughts -- not the Bakken. Those will be in stand-alone posts.

First, the ObamaCliff: It's actually getting to be quite fun to see all these folks making money on the ObamaCliff: a) the accelerated dividends (whoo-hoo); b) Warren Buffett buying $1.2 billion worth of his stock back from a shareholder before that shareholder goes over the cliff next year; and, c) nothing to do with the ObamaCliff directly, but Google stashing $10 billion in tax-free accounts off-shore is just simply priceless.  By the way, I can't even keep up with all the corporations accelerating their dividends. And, of course, that's just a "stunt." Will amount to a hill of beans in the end. The bigger story that no one is talking about: DOD sequestration alone is enough to throw the economy into a recession.

Second, more and more "trial balloons" and articles preparing us for going over the fiscal cliff, including this one.  Again, the Damocles sword known as DOD sequestration will fall on January 1, 2013. This should be great political theater. Then comes the debt ceiling.

Third, now that it's official -- interest rates will remain at zero until unemployment is below 6.5%, there's no hurry to buy that house. Rates will still be low a year from now. And two years from now. Banks borrowing money at 0.001 percent and charging 19% on credit cards are going to do very, very well.

Fourth, at the current "burn" or "run" rate, Don tells me that US debt will be $25 trillion in 49 months. 49 months --> a new president. In my mind, once the debt hit $8 trillion, I no longer paid attention. It's all become one big joke that no one takes seriously any more. If you can defend $25 trillion debt regardless who you voted for, you are in a different universe than I am.

Fifth, I'm beginning to think Israel is a paper tiger, or as George Bush would say, "all hat, no cattle." After all that sabre (saber?) rattling earlier this year over Iran, things in the Mideast keep smoldering along. And you have to love the White House characterizing the North Korean launch of that .... that .. that .. whatever it was .... as provocative.  I was initially upset with that characterization but it's exactly right. Whatever it is, the thing is tumbling out of control. With any luck it will land where we most want it to land.

Sixth, Florida with almost a million permits for concealed weapons, and a Federal appeals court strikes down an Illinois law that barred folks from carrying loaded guns in public. No comment.

And finally, and then all of this and the above will be out of my system: this is the first year in a long time I won't be celebrating Kwanzaa. It was a mandatory event when I was stationed overseas.


Personal notes:

First, gift recommendation (after you donate to the Salvation Army): Omaha Steaks. This is incredible. They have a $49 special. I believe regular price is about $150:
Holiday Favorites Combo 47427GZ   2 (5 oz.) Filet Mignons
  2 (5 oz.) Top Sirloins
  4 (4 oz.) Gourmet Burgers
  8 Potatoes au Gratin
  1 (16 oz. pkg.) Omaha Steakhouse® Fries
Reg. $142.00 | Save $92.01 | Now Only $49.99 
The "GZ" must stand for "gift zone.

Okay, that's incredible. Free shipping and $50 for a very nice gift for almost anyone, but especially for seniors who no longer need anything to take up space in their homes as they are downsizing.

But if that's all there was, I wouldn't post. When you put that single item in your cart and begin to checkout, Omaha Steaks, gives you an opportunity to buy one or two more items for an even bigger savings. If you take one of those choices, which I did, when you checkout, you are given another option but this time you are given 5 minutes to make a choice (I believe it was lobster tails for less than what I pay in Rockport, Massachusetts; I did not take that choice). And then, at checkout, one last opportunity for another great item at a huge discount.

My daughter got me started on Omaha Steaks about three years ago, and I am very, very impressed.

What a great country. I assume shipping dates are such that there's not much more time if you want your gift to reach its destination by the end of the year. I was surprised at the US Post Office to hear that regular shipping TODAY will not get the package to its stateside destination by December 24th. That's almost two weeks from now and the US Post Office regular shipping can't get it anywhere in the states in that amount of time, now.

Global Warming

Irrefutable facts that global warming advocates never address:
  • "man-made" CO2 represents but 3% of all greenhouse gases, even less if you include water vapor. Water vapor is the number #1 "greenhouse gas" by a huge margin; again, CO2 represents but 3% of all greenhouse gases; eliminate all man-made CO2 and one still has 97% of the other gases to deal with, including water vapor
  • the increase in atmospheric CO2, from 2010 to 2011, is measured at "nearly two parts per million"; the annual variability of atmospheric CO2 is 3 - 9 parts per million

Eight (8) New Permits -- The Williston Basin

Bakken Operations

Active rigs: 185 (steady, but increasing -- was 181 earlier this week)

Eight (8) new permits --
  • Operators: American Eagle (2), OXY USA, Hunt, GMXR, Murex, Petro-Hunt, Whiting
  • Fields: Little Tank (McKenzie), Charlie Bob (McKenzie), Otter (Williams), Pleasant Hill (McKenzie), Colgan (Divide), Manning (Divide)
  • Comments: Murex has a permit for a wildcat in Divide County;
Wells coming off confidential list were reported earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Producing wells completed:
  • 22044, 700, Zavanna, George 19-30 1H, Stockyard Creek, t10/12; cum 33K 10/12;
  • 23416, 895, Murex, Jade Brenna 2-11H, Rawson, t11/12; cum --
  • 23326, 343, Cornerstone, South Coteau, Opseth 6-29-30H, t12/12; cum --
  • 23582, 903, Whiting, Lacey 43-2TFX, Sanish, t11/12; cum --

Random Note on the Brooklyn Oil Field -- The Bakken

Brooklyn oil field has been updated.

Brooklyn oil field has always intrigued me. I'm not sure why.

It's simply a square, non-descript, 36-section oil field, northeast of Williston, north of "1804" on the way out to the "lake."

It is "owned" by CLR and for reasons unclear to me, "he" has been drilling the heck out of this field. There is no urgency with regard to leases; the 36 sections are now all held by production.

For the longest time, there has always been one rig on this field. Today, while updating the field, I notice there are now three (3) rigs working this field. For such a small, non-descript field, in which all sections are now held by production, it is curious to see what appears to be "frenzied" activity. As best I can tell, there are no Eco-Pads, but section 10-155-98 does have seven wells sited on it, on the southern line. Only one of the wells is complete, and that horizontal is running north.

None of these wells look they will make the "monster list" of wells, but they must all be nice wells to explain this degree of activity. It appears they will all hit 150,000 bbls within the first two years. And they will continue to produce for 39 years, on average. The duration of production matters not as much as the EURs. In the better Bakken, EURs are now estimated to be 750,000 to 900,000 bbls; in the best Bakken, EURs of 1.5 million are being talked about. So far, no "dry" wells in the Brooklyn, and it would be hard to believe that any of these wells won't reach 500,000 bbls before it's all over (primary production).

But I'm still intrigued: three rigs on one little, non-descript, mediocre field? 

Wells Coming Confidential List Thursday

Bakken Operations

Active rigs: 184 (steady, but up three over the past several days; surprising)

Wells coming off the confidential list on Thursday
  • 21096, 597, Murex, Keegan Scott 25-36H, Lonesome, t6/12; cum 41K 10/12;
  • 21912, 487, Hess, BW-Horrie 149-101-0805H-1, Sather Lake, t10/12; cum 15K 10/12;
  • 21977, drl, CLR, Florida 3-11H, Camp,
  • 22905, 764, CLR, Frisco 1-31H, Glass Bluff, t10/12; cum 15K 10/12;
  • 22922, drl, BEXP, Syverson 1-12 2TFH, Stony Creek,
  • 22975, drl, SM Energy, Holm 14-12HB, Siverston,
  • 23022, 1,645, Newfield, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-2H, Westberg, t7/12; cum 35K 10/12;

Global Warming To Hit Southern California Overnight -- Not a Bakken Story

Link here to LA Times.
Roads in the Angeles National Forest will close at 10 p.m. Wednesday because of expected snow and ice from a storm making its way to Southern California from the Gulf of Alaska.
The Angeles Forest Highway from Upper Big Tujunga Canyon to Aliso Canyon Road will be shut down, said officials with the Los Angeles County Public Works Department. Upper Big Tujunga Road from Angeles Forest Highway to Angeles Crest Highway also will be closed.   
I assume this is pretty normal for this time of year.

Underground Coal Gasification (UCG)

Another source of energy to keep track of.

Link here to Forbes.
Coal Gasification is a well-known, tried and true technology, dating back to the mid-1800s.  Town gas, as it was then known, lit the streets of London and other cities in the 1860s, (thereby helping to save the sperm whale – whose oil was used in lighting municipalities around the globe – from extinction).
UCG essentially involves a process that captures the imagination: heating underground coal seams to the point of combustion.  It involves drilling two wells – at some distance from each other – into the coal seam.  The first well supplies oxidants (a mixture of water and air or water and oxygen), which are injected into the location where the process is actually occurring.  The second well permits the syngas produced to escape under pressure to the surface.  This gas contains approximately 80% of the original energy content of the coal, and is a combination of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and methane.

Daily Ticker: Fracking Good for the Economy?

Link here to a throwaway article. Regular readers, I doubt, will see much new here. A feel-good story.
In a welcome development almost no one saw coming, America's greenhouse gas emissions have fallen to 1992 levels and are expected to continue to decline, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA).
In addition to a sluggish economy and more fuel efficient cars, "fracking" has been a big driver of this trend. "Fracking" is shorthand for hydraulic fracturing, the process of extracting natural gas from shale rock. The EIA projects U.S. greenhouse emissions will fall below 2005 levels by 2040.
"It is a revolution," says Joel Kurtzman, a senior fellow at the Milken Institute. "We should be using it. We should be embracing it. It's domestic. We spend $350 billion a year buying foreign oil. We can replace almost all of that with natural gas."

SolarCity Slashes IPO Share Price -- Nothing To Do With The Bakken

MDW blogged about this Monday; mentioned the IPO should be watched (LA Times link). The "green energy" fad is over?
SolarCity Corp. expanded the size of its highly anticipated initial public offering but knocked down the share price in what analysts said was a bid to boost investor demand.
The San Mateo company said in a Wednesday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it plans to sell 11.4 million shares at $8 apiece. That values the company, which is one of the country’s largest providers and installers of residential and commercial solar power generating systems, at about $584.6 million.
Earlier, SolarCity had pegged its valuation at roughly $1 billion, expecting to sell 10.1 million shares at $13 to $15 each. The company is known for the financing options it gives customers, including a lease program designed to limit upfront costs for homeowners.
So, we'll see. 

$90 million vs $150 million. Whatever.

The Hoot Owl Oil Field Updated; Linked At Sidebar At The Right -- Remember: The Salvation Army This Season

The Hoot Owl oil field has been updated. It is now linked at the sidebar at the right.

When I get caught up, I will add some additional information about the Red River formation. For now, if you see the "Hoot Owl oil field," think Whiting and the Red River formation. 


The January Effect on Bakken-Centric Independents

Part 5. Magnum Hunter. --


Part I: NOG
Part II: Goodrich Petroleum and Cabot Oil & Gas
Part III: Emerald, KOG, Triangle
Part IV: Crimson Exploration 
Part V: Magnum Hunter. --
Part VI: Halcon.

Wednesday Morning Links -- Not The Bakken -- For the Bakken, Scroll Up or Down


March 11, 2013: French millionaires still leaving the country to avoid taxes; most probably going to Belgium or London. 

Original Post

Wells coming off confidential list have been posted. When you get to the link, scroll down.

Miscellaneous Links/Briefs

Homeless to a billionaire, rags to riches, born in 1944. Grew up in poor single-parent home.  First job at age 9.

From the Los Angeles Times: doomsday for the southern California toll roads. I recall having driven on one of these toll roads. I was amazed at the high toll, and that was years ago. The "freeway" was almost entirely empty. I could tell then that the toll roads were in deep trouble, and that was years ago.

From Yahoo! In-Play: United Tech to sell Pratt & Whitney Power Systems unit to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

From Yahoo! In-Play: Sempra Energy's Sempra U.S. Gas & Power receives final approvals for power-purchase agreement with Southern California Public Power Authority: Co announced that the cities of Los Angeles and Burbank have approved a 20-year agreement to purchase 250 megawatts of solar power from Sempra U.S. Gas & Power's proposed Copper Mountain Solar 3 project to be constructed in Boulder City, Nev., approximately 40 miles southeast of Las Vegas. The Copper Mountain Solar 3 agreement provides the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power with the bulk of the power produced by the solar power plant -- 210 MW -- through an agreement with the Southern California Public Power Authority (SCPPA).  

WSJ Links

Section D: nothing of interest.

Section C: 
New player joins the pension fray: why the interest? Rhode Island's rollback of public-employee retirement benefits has turned the small state into a national battleground over pension.

High energy prices or E&P is spent: bad news for the oil industry in unlucky '13.

Section B: nothing of interest.

Section A: 

Front page story -- unions dealt blow in UAW's home state -- did not read. weighs in -- with graphs that even Detroit high school students should be able to read.

Page 2, huge story, only story on page 2: court backs loaded guns in public -- did read -- the Seventh US Circuit Court of Appeals struck down an Illinois law enacted decades ago which barred people other than those in law enforcement from carrying a loaded gun outside the home or carrying unloaded guns that can easily be reached. This will end up in the Supreme Court.

US judge approves A123 sale to China's Wanxiang. It is interesting to see how familiar the Chinese company names are becoming. I think Americans would warm up to investing in Chinese companies if the names were, should we say, more Anglicized. I assume Wanxiang is pronounced "wan-chang" or "wan-ching." I assume in the not too distant future we will see a Chinese start-up named "Quaxiang." Pronounced "ka-ching."

Hollywood wimps out and makes a formula film -- Holman W. Jenkins, Jr, "Promised Land"

Op-ed: we can't fix the budget in secret. Did not read -- written by a US Senator. Wrong. We can fix the budget in secret. We fixed the US health care system in secret.

Op-ed: French millionaires flee to Belgium. I remember receiving a comment some time ago saying Belgium taxes were higher than French taxes. No source, so not posted. In fact, French taxes are higher than Belgium's: a) proposed high income tax rate, French, 75%; Belgium 54%; b) Belgium has no capital-gains tax on equities; under Hollande, the capital-gains tax rate will go from 20% to 35%; Belgium lacks any "wealth tax." French "wealth tax" will kick in at 0.5% on assets over 800,000 euros.

Busting the trust fraud: Ohio cleans up tort bar's asbestos bankruptcy scam. Did not read.

Durum, Hard Spring Wheat, and That Global Warming Issue

Wednesday Morning Links -- Energy Links -- May or May Not Contain Bakken Stories

Wells coming off the confidential list today have been posted. When you get to the link, scroll down.

RBN Energy: Part 3 of the series on changes affecting the gulf.
In Part 1 of the series (see Echo and the Blending Men) we looked at the new 6 MMBbl Enterprise ECHO crude terminal being touted as a delivery point if the NYMEX list a Houston crude futures contract.  
In Part 2 (see Nederland Crude Wonderland) we looked at the Energy Transfer Partners/Sunoco Logistics Nederland Terminal at Port Neches on the Texas/Louisiana border between Beaumont and Port Arthur 100 miles East of Houston. That terminal has been in place since the beginning of the twentieth century and now has 22 MMBbl of storage capacity. 
This time we turn our attention to the Oiltanking Houston (OTH) Terminal on the Houston Ship Channel east of downtown Houston.
For comparison, capacity at Cushing is 62 million bbls.

The Bakken: two fast growing Bakken picks -- OAS, NOG -- from a respected contributor.

South Dakota conference helping businesses learn how to cash in on the Bakken. If nothing else, the speakers are already cashing in on the Bakken.