Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Thursday; Miscellaneous Links; ATT/Apple Setting Sales Records; Oasis With Two Nice Wells; Fidelity With a Nice Well

Bakken Operations

Active wells: 181 (intra-boom low is 180; hit earlier this week)

Wells coming off confidential list, Thursday:
20030, 1,283, Fidelity, Amundson 23-14H, Stanley, t10/12; cum 19K 10/12;
22044, del, Zavanna, George 19-30 1H, Stockyard Creek, a great well; 21K first full month;
22349, 1,587, Oasis, Ricky Federal 5602 43-35H, Bonetrail, t6/12; cum 34K 10/12;
22350, 1,193, Oasis, Bobby 5602 43-35H, Squires, t7/12; cum 25K 10/12;
22646, drl, BEXP, Jerome Anderson 10-15 4H, Alger,
22935, drl, CLR, Salem 3-6H, Dollar Joe,

Other links

RBN Energy: after the flood.
A veritable flood of more than 3 MMb/d of new crude production from the US and Canada will come into the Houston region by 2015 via long awaited new pipeline infrastructure. The most immediate impact will be to back out light sweet crudes from the Gulf Coast region – as early as 2013. Today we assess how the changes will affect light sweet crude pricing. 
Fossil fuel will supply 80% of energy for US in 2040 -- US DOE report via Less than 11 percent will be provided by taxpayer-dependent energy sources (wind, solar).

ATT smart phone sales setting a new record,
The wireless carrier is selling smartphones at a record pace -- 6.4 million already in the first two months of the quarter, according to Ralph de la Vega, CEO of AT&T's mobility arm. De la Vega, speaking at an investor conference today, said he now expects to sell 26 million smartphones this year, 1 million more than previously expected
Given that the iPhone typically represents 70-80% of AT&T's smartphones, the carrier's record numbers for the quarter so far bode well for Apple. Apple will likely also see a boost from its rapid rollout of the iPhone 5, which is already offered in nearly 50 countries and will be available in more than 50 additional countries by the end of the month.
Apple is clearly expecting a blockbuster quarter, having issued guidance for a record $52 billion in revenue on the strength of not only the iPhone 5 but also the new iPad mini and the just-updated full-size iPad, as well as recent updates to most of the company's Mac and iPod lines. [standard disclaimer: this site is not an investment site; do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here]
Meanwhile: the last of the four major US telecoms has just announced it will now offer the iPhone. T-Mobile USA says it will begin selling the iPhone in 2013

For investors only: update on Halcon as an investment, [standard disclaimer: this site is not an investment site; do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here]

For investors only: update on American Eagle Energy as an investment, [standard disclaimer: this site is not an investment site; do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here]. For newbies who do not recognize American Eagle, click here and scroll down for American Eagle Energy.

Not a Bakken Story: Rich Californians, Hawaiians, New Yorkers Will Pay Nation's Highest Marginal Tax Rate

Link to
Thanks to passage of Proposition 30 last month, high-income Californians would pay the nation's highest marginal income tax rates -- nearly 52 percent -- if "we" go over the ObamaCliff.
Cue up Connie Francis.

Who wants to bet against me that Kobe Bryant will ask to be traded from the LA Lakers to San Antonio Spurs or Miami Heat before the end of 2013?

Speaking of which, Kobe goes over 30,000 life-time points tonight. Despite the LA Lakers apparently imploding, Kobe should be able to get the 13 points or so that he needs.

[As far as Hawaii and New York City: more to come.]

But Americans are content/satisfied.

Read more here:

Not a Bakken Story But Several Readers Interested In Regional Stories: PolyMet and Twin Metals; Minnesota With Larger Deposit of Precious Metals Than Previously Estimated

Link here to
The company that controls mining rights to 32,000 acres on the doorstep of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area said Tuesday that the land contains 19 percent more copper, gold and palladium than it previously estimated, making Minnesota home to one of the world's largest deposits of precious metals.
"These are not minor mineral holdings," said Bob McFarlin, vice president for government and public affairs for Twin Metals, a partner in the planned project, which released the results of the new geological analysis. "The state is sitting on an absolute economic juggernaut for generations to come."
The value of the mineral wealth in the area was pegged last summer at more than $100 billion. The new estimate released Tuesday assigned high confidence to the presence of 13.7 billion pounds of copper, 4.4 billion pounds of nickel and 21.2 million ounces of palladium, platinum and gold. The platinum and palladium deposits would be one of the largest outside of South Africa.
The project, along with a proposed mine run by PolyMet Mining Corp., has raised alarms among environmentalists, who worry about the potential impact on northern forests and lake country. PolyMet, which plans a $600 million open-pit project near Hoyt Lakes, is now preparing for the environmental approval process, which it expects to start next year.

Seven (7) New Permits; BEXP With Three Nice Wells; Whiting With a Nice Well;

Bakken Operations

Active rigs: 181 (was at its intra-boom low of 180 today, new low)

Seven (7) new permits:
  • Operators: EOG (3), Petro-Hunt (2), BEXP (2)
  • Fields: Camp (McKenzie), Little Knife (Dunn), Ft Buford (Williams), Parshall (Mountrail)
    Comments: None
Wells coming off confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Producing wells completed:
  • 23234, 521, Whiting,Bill TTT Federal 42-4TFH, Sanish, t10/12; cum 1K 10/12;
  • 23235, 1,702, Whiting, Gordon TTT Federal 41-4H, Sanish, t10/12; cum 5K 10/12;
  • 22883, 509, Whiting, Cvancara 21-14TFH, Alger, t11/12; cum --
  • 21771, 3,080, BEXP, Jack Cvancara 19-18 2H, Alger, t10/12; cum 7K 10/12;
  • 22381, A, BEXP, Vachal 3-34 4TFH, t--
  • 21712, 2,604, BEXP, Rich 30-31 3H, Todd, t10/12; cum 17K 10/12;
  • 22696, 2,898, BEXP, Ross-Alger 6-7 3H,  Alger, t10/12; cum 8K 10/12;

Filloon on Continental Resources; EURs of 1.5 Million Bbls in the Best Bakken?


December 6, 2012: so, is there any Three Forks well with more than a million bbls? Yes:
1987, 150, CLR, Woodrow Star "A" 1, Antelope, Sanish Pool, t10/58; cum 1.060 million bbls 10/12; still producing

Original Post

Link here to

How good is the best Bakken?

Remember all that early talk of EURs averaging somewhere between 300- and 500-thousand bbls? Then KOG started talking about one-million-barrel EURs in the best Bakken.

Now, this from Mike Filloon:
.... interest in NE McKenzie has grown significantly over the past two years. QEP Resources' acquisition of Helis's acreage in Croff and Grail fields proves this value. The best wells in this area targeted the upper Three Forks, with consistent EURs of 1000 MBoe. Wells have modeled to a maximum EUR of 1500 MBoe. This area is inconsistent with the rest of the basin, as the upper Three Forks outperforms the middle Bakken in this field. In the general vicinity of this field, the upper Three Forks has produced 10 wells with more than 1101-1500 Mboe. The middle Bakken has produced 8 within this range.
Again, in case you missed it: some folks are talking about EURs of 1.5 million bbls in the best Bakken (assuming I read the article correctly). 

We've already seen any number of Bakken wells drilled in the last four or five years that have exceeded 500 thousand bbls. Visit "Monster Wells" and scroll down.

Not About the Bakken. The ObamaCliff? Fortunately We Can Get $1.2 Trillion In Revenue Without Raising Rates; Congress Must Agree -- Voting With Their Feet: Leaving DC

Link here to Real Clear Politics.

Apparently that remains "in play": that we can get "there" from "here" without raising rates based on Congressional latest vote.

Voting with their feet.

Congress is taking off for a long weekend, and when we talk "long weekend," we are really talking long weekends. Their weekend is starting on a Wednesday, at noon. Pretty nice.

US Energy: Abundant, Cheap, Reliable


December 6, 2012: Tim Cook discusses Apple's move to bring back to the US some manufacturing of Apple products (promo teaser for CNBC interview). AP story here.

 Original Post

Link to Yahoo News (turn down the volume).
When the biggest company in America is reported to be, for the first time in a generation, bringing some of its high-tech computer manufacturing back to plants on the home front from those in Asia, something has to be going on. 
At the very least, it merits further investigation into why Apple  suddenly decided to assemble iMacs in the U.S.
For Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, this new reality is not only part of what he expects will be a growing trend, but also an indirect endorsement for the country's cheap and reliable energy.
"I think the real story is that the U.S. is likely going to be the low cost center of energy outside of the Middle East," Saut says in the attached video. "But who wants to build a plant there?"
With regard to energy, two words: a) cheap; b) reliable.

Oh, I almost forgot: as long as it isn't coal. 

Apple iTunes Tip of The Day -- Nothing To Do With The Bakken

Earlier I mentioned Apple's upgrading of iTunes, now iTunes 11.

This has nothing to do with iTunes per se, but some folks might be interested. Years ago, it was a pain to convert a YouTube video to an MP3 audio. Now it is so easy, a caveman can do it. Again, this will convert the video to an audio only: after conversion you will have the audio (generally, a song) in your iTunes inventory, but not the video.

This is how you do it.

First, bring up this site, "converting YouTube to MP3."

Then, in a different window, open the YouTube video you want to convert.

Third, copy the URL of that YouTube video -- the "http://......" at the top of the browser.

Fourth, paste that URL in the second long box at the "converting" site.

Fifth, click on "Convert Video." The conversion is instantaneous. You will not see anything happening, except for the next screen with a rectangular light green box pop up, and it happens so quickly, you may not even notice it.

Now, this is the tricky part. One would think that you are done. NOT! You have successfully converted it, but to get it on your computer, you need to "download" it.

To download it, in the top rectangular light green box, click on "download."

From there, computers and operating systems will vary. You might have to search where your computer/operating system places/saves/downloads things. For the current Apple operating system, downloads are placed/saved/downloaded in the area called "Downloads" which is found in the "hard drive icon" on the desktop. Click on that, click on "downloads," and move your newly converted video/MP3 song to iTunes. It will show up at the bottom of your iTune list, in alphabetical order with other converted YouTube videos.

For Investors Only: Pipelines

Link to Bloomberg.
Until 10 years ago, tax-advantaged master limited partnerships, or MLPs, were leftovers from the oil boom of the 1980s, when they were used to attract individual investors to the exploration business. They emerged in the 2000s as the vehicle of choice for pipeline companies that hurried to keep up with the pace of drilling in new fields like the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania and the Bakken Shale in North Dakota.

It would take $251 billion in investment over 25 years to build pipes, processing plants and other infrastructure needed for all the new exploration, the Interstate Natural Gas Alliance of America trade group estimated in a 2011 report. The spending is already ahead of those estimates, and most of it is being done by MLPs, according Eduardo Seda, an analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. in New York. MLPs don’t pay U.S. income taxes and distribute most of their free cash as taxable income to investors through partnership units, which trade like stock. 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read at the Million Dollar Way. 

Tea Leaves -- Random Comment -- Idle Chatter -- Sleeper Story in The Williston Basin: The Red River

It is very, very tedious but I periodically go through the wells/permits at the NDIC site, one at a time, maybe two hundred (200) at a time, to get a feeling of what is happening.

Today I went through about 200 wells drilled back in 2008 and was surprised to see the results of the Continental Resources wells that targeted the Red River formations (and there are several). There are too many to list, but one gets an idea of some of these wells at the "Monster Wells" page; when you get there, scroll down to the Red River. There are not many there because I use a cut-off of at least 750,000 bbls but CLR has quite an impressive Red River inventory.

If interested, check the CLR wells in Cedar Hills oil field. Interestingly, today there are no rigs in that large field. However, CLR has one rig in the general area:
  • 23818, conf, CLR, MPHU 32-10H, Medicine Pole Hills, 
Looking at some of the Red River wells in the immediate area:
  • 5456, 200, CLR, Wallman-Rausch 1-8, Medicine Pole Hills, a West Red River well, t12/74; cum 630K 10/12; and still active and coming up on its 40th birthday in a year or so. 
  • 5530, 110, CLR, Susag-Wallman 1-17, Medicine Pole Hills, a West Red River well; t3/75; cum 416K 10/12
  • 5749, 100, CLR, MPHU 42-16, Medicine Pole Hills, a Red River well; t5/76; cum 485K 10/12;
  • 11797, 90, CLR, MPHU 44-14, Medicine Pole Hills, a Red River well; t11/85; cum 381K 10/12
  • 11891, 6 (no typo), CLR, MPHU 31-10, Medicine Pole Hills, a Red River well, t1/86; cum 195K 10/12; a vertical well that could not have cost much;
Time precludes me from continuing, but one gets the idea. A single CLR rig targeting the Red River in southwest North Dakota. 

Three North Dakota Counties Among 15 Highest Paying Counties Across the ENTIRE US

Link here to The Dickinson Press.
The boom in the state’s oil patch and strong farm prices have given a big boost to personal incomes in North Dakota, putting per capita pay in some places on par with the most famously rich counties in the U.S.
Three western North Dakota counties — Williams, Billings and LaMoure — posted average personal incomes in 2011 that place them sixth ($81,170), 11th ($76,798), and 14th ($74,875), respectively, among the nation’s 3,113 counties, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.
LaMoure County is an outlier: way east of the oil patch and far from any large metropolitan area. This county, about 1,100 square miles in size (compare with Rhode Island, 1,200 square miles), has a population of about 4,000 people, giving it a population density of about 4 people per square mile.

Notably missing: McKenzie County. 

Quick! Name the biggest town in LaMoure County.

Nothing To Do With the Bakken -- Added Jobs: Less Than Expected; Citi To Cut 11,000 Jobs

This is not about the Bakken; if you came to the site for the Bakken, scroll down to posts below.

To newbies: this is for personal use only, for archival purposes only. At one time I had trouble keeping track of these numbers, so this is for my benefit only.  This is not meant for those following the Bakken.

There are two different stories here: one is unemployment (the magic number is 400,000); the second story has to do with employers adding new jobs (the magic number is 200,000)

The magic number of new unemployment claims is 400,000 -- the lower the better. The last report, bad news: hovering around 395,000.

Now, this, the magic number for new jobs: 200,000 -- the higher the better. Today's report: we've gone under the magic number -- only 118,000 new jobs were added.

Citi To Cut 11,000 Jobs

The plan will cut 11,000 jobs worldwide, including 1,900 jobs in the institutional clients group, most of whom, I assume are in New York City. That's in the same ballpark as the 18,000 Hostess/Twinkie jobs lost. Cue up Connie Francis.
  Remember: the magic number is 200,000
Link here to Reuters.
Private-sector employers added 118,000 jobs in November, shy of economists' expectations.
Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 125,000 jobs.
October's private payrolls were revised slightly down to an increase of 157,000 from the previously reported 158,000.
Foreshadowing the Great Recession of 2013.

Housekeeping -- The Bakken -- Misc Posts -- The Sage Grouse Loses -- Defense Dept Three-Ring Circus

Wells coming off confidential list have been posted.

I get an occasional comment from folks wondering about barges and Bakken oil, at the link above, there is another link that will take you to an article on barges and oil.

And finally, the number of active rigs in North Dakota has dropped to an intra-boom low -- a new low -- 180.

Other Links

Speaking of barges, the low Mississippi is threatening the Missouri.

Motley Fool's take on ONEOK's decision to cancel the Bakken Crude Express oil pipeline.

A link later, when I find a good one: the update on the Albion, NE, town meeting re: Keystone XL. Early reports suggest nothing unexpected.

Ah, yes, it never fails, another great Apple story, WSJ, page D1, iTunes gets an upgrade without missing a beat. I thought the same thing. There had been lots of chatter and excitement about iTunes 11; and then when I got the automated reminder it was ready for downloading, I clicked a few keys, and in seconds -- I think it took less than five seconds -- I had iTunes 11 downloaded. Apparently Walter S Mossberg was impressed, too. I haven't read the entire article yet. For newbies: this is more than just about music. It's my understanding that the entire Apple mobile IOS concept works off iTunes software; this is a huge deal, and it went off without a glitch.

Birth of a Gothic Fascination, the Civil War and photography, at the Huntington Library, in San Marino, CA, where I hope to be in two weeks.

Networks can only berate selves: prime-time ratings at the four major broadcast networks are down a combined 9 percent among viewers in the 18-to-49 age bracket most coveted by advertisers since the season began. Lots of excuses, but probably most responsible: a lack of appealing new programming. Cable is doing well; so viewers are there if the networks have something to offer.

Page B1, still the WSJ: clerks bring LA port to a halt. [Update: there is word that a deal has been reached; it just needs to be voted on; unions got everything they wanted, including their $200,000 salary, no layoffs, good for six years.]

Oil output near 15-year high, page B2, WSJ.

Detroit's unsold cars pile up, page B3, WSJ.  This story follows the story of GM's 140-day inventory of pickup trucks (health inventory is 70 days); the huge sales for Japanese cars this past quarter.

Canadian Pacific to cut 4,500 jobs; WSJ, page B4.

Google explainer-in-chief can't explain Apple, interview, page B7, WSJ.  Apple's biggest worry: Google CEO Eric Schmidt may get Cabinet post. Google's only competitor right now: Apple.

Does 11% unemployment sound good to you? That's where we are headed if Congress doesn't hurry.

Federal court to sage grouse: you are on your own; Fairfield (MT) Sun Times:
Two Wyoming associations in November celebrated the ruling by an Idaho federal district court rejecting demands by an environmental group to restrict federal land use following the court’s 2011 ruling that the Bureau of Land Management violated federal law in preparing two Resource Management Plans.  The Wyoming Stock Growers Association and the Petroleum Association of Wyoming, after days of hearings in April, filed a brief advising the court that the Western Watersheds Project may not tell the BLM how to perform its job nor is the group entitled to “interim measures” while the BLM acts because it did not demonstrate the likelihood of irreparable harm or that the balance of hardships tips in its favor.  
Defense layoffs coming: I was in the USAF for 30 years. Some of those years were spent in headquarters. Periodically -- actually it seemed quite often -- we went through exercises of sending out what amounted to "layoff notices" only to have them rescinded. It wasted a huge amount of time, but since a lot of headquarters folks didn't have much to do anyway, this gave them something to do while waiting to go home, or go to another meaningless meeting (think Dilbert).

And, so here we go again. The White House has directed DOD to start planning for the ObamaCliff.

This time the layoffs will occur. There is no chance that a deal to prevent going over the ObamaCliff will occur before the end of the year. By law, spending cuts take effect, spending cuts that are significant. So, folks will get layoff notices, and then January 1, 2013, if I understand the law, the cuts take effect immediately and people will be laid off.
Half of the automatic spending cuts would fall on the Pentagon. The $500 billion would be in addition to the $487 billion in cuts to defense spending mandated in the Budget Control Act. The department began implementing those reductions in its 2012 budget.
The Pentagon has repeatedly said over the past year that it had not begun planning for the automatic cuts because it had not received guidance to do so from the budget office. In recent months, at the direction of Congress, it had begun looking at the impact the cuts would have.
DOD has a knack for moving money around with smoke and mirrors. I can imagine DOD finding a way to delay layoffs if there is some assurance that a deal will be made. They will move the "spend plan" to the left, technically zeroing out the last three months of the year. When the deal is made, they move the "spend plan" back to where it was.