Saturday, November 17, 2012

ObamaCare: North Dakota Elects to Defer to Federal Government

Updates

November 19, 2012: why ObamaCare is still no sure thing
At its core, ObamaCare is a massive entitlement expansion. Between vastly increased Medicaid eligibility and new premium subsidies, it is expected to bring 30 million more people onto the federal government's entitlement rolls. The law anticipates that the states will take on the burden of implementing the expansions, but states can opt out of both (exchanges and expansion of Medicaid).
November 19, 2012: it looks like North Dakota got it right (again) on this one, deferring to the Federal government on health exchanges. Look at the California experience
"We are in our countdown period," said Peter Lee, executive director of Covered California, the state's new health insurance marketplace that opens in October 2013.
Under the federal law, the state-run exchange aims to fundamentally reshape the health insurance market by negotiating with insurers for the best rates and assisting consumers in choosing a plan. The exchange must also help millions of Californians figure out whether they qualify for an expansion of Medicaid, the government insurance for the poor, or federally subsidized private coverage.
Federal officials have a lot riding on the California effort. How the state's insurance exchange fares will be an important test of [ObamaCare] at a time when many Republican-led states are resisting implementation. California leaders also hope they can harness the purchasing power of the exchange to improve patient care and make healthcare more affordable.
All of that, however, depends on getting enough people — healthy and unhealthy, uninsured and insured — to enroll. If that doesn't happen, the state could lose billions in federal dollars and insurance premiums could soar. The task is daunting, given the size and diversity of California's population, said Paul Fearer, an exchange board member.
Where is Cesar Chavez when we need him? He could max out the enrollment lists. 

November 18, 2012: for the informationally-challenged: link to ObamaCare

Original Post
Link here to LA Times.

Exchanges:
State exchanges: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington (as of November, 2012)

No-state exchanges (defer to the federal exchange):  Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming (as of November, 2012)

Partnership exchanges with the federal government: Illinois (as of November, 2012) -- hardly surprising

Undecided about exchanges, state vs federal government: Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia (as of November, 2012)

Random Update of A Few Wells; Updating The Helis Wells in the Grail

In addition to these two wells, I have updated a few others at this post.
  • 19323, 2,521, Helis, Thompson 1-29/32H, Grail, t8/11; cum 293K 9/12; a Three Forks well; 28 stages; 3.3 million lbs; 
  • 19056, 825, Hess, Devils Canyon 17-1H, Lone Butte, 29 days; fracture data never submitted (assuming it was fracked?), t8/11; cum 108K 9/12;
So, how are the other Helis Grail wells doing? See below. Be sure to note the test date and the total production to date; really quite amazing. It appears the entire Grail is held by production. It is active, but not particularly noteworthy. Remember, QEP bought Helis this past year.

Helis Oil permits in the Grail:
  • 19894, PA/794, Helis, Gabbert 4-2/11H, Grail, t2/12; cum 7K 9/12; 6 stages; 560K lbs;
  • 22879, 1,873, Helis,Gabbert 4-2/11HR, t9/12; cum 117K 9/13;
  • 22880, 1,834, Helis, Bert 2-2/11H, t7/12; cum 152K 9/13;
  • 19898, 2,421, Helis, Gabbert 3-3/10H, Grail, t10/11; cum 253K 9/13;
  • 19680, 2,246, Helis, Johnson 1-4/9H; Grail, t9/11; cum 237K 9/13;
  • 17267, PNC, Helis,
  • 16689, 142/AB, Helis, Linseth 4-8H, Grail, t6/08; cum 78K 9/12;
  • 21437, 2,256, Helis, Lawlar 16-8/5H, Grail, t4/12; cum 211K 9/13;
  • 16856, AB, last produced 12/11; 185, Peterson 15-15H, Grail, t6/08; cum 83K 9/12;
  • 18448, 2,429, Helis, Andrecovich 5-17/16H, Grail, t9/10; cum 316K 9/13;
  • 22194, 1,248, QEP/Helis, Moberg 13-17/16H, Grail, Three Forks, 30 stages; 3 million lbs, t2/13; cum 151K 9/13;
  • 20226, 1,598, QEP/Helis, Moberg 4-20/21H, Grail, t12/11; cum 260K 9/13;
  • 21052, 1,684, QEP/Helis, Moberg 15-22/15H, Grail, t12/11; cum 172K 9/13;
  • 19379, 1,379, QEP/Helis, Kirkland 13-23/14H, Grail, t8/11; cum 179K 9/13;
  • 22363, conf, QEP/Helis,Kirkland 15E-23/14H,
  • 21054, 1,601, QEP/Helis, Veeder 1-27/34H, Grail, t2/12; cum 181K 9/13;
  • 21465, 1,907, QEP/Helis, TAT 15-33/28H, Grail, t5/12; cum 306K 9/13;
  • 21456, 2,014, QEP/Helis, TAT 13-35/26H, Grail, t7/12; cum 218K 9/13;
  • 17722, 2,068, QEP/Helis, Henderson Federal 4-26/35H, Grail, t1/11; cum 200K 9/13;
  • 23278, conf, QEP/Helis,
  • 16929, 517, QEP/Helis, Levang 4-28H, Grail, t8/08; cum 54K 9/13;
  • 20780, 2,190, QEP/Helis, Henderson 1-28/33H, Grail, t6/12; cum 243K 9/13;
  • 17894, PNC
  • 19323, 2,521, QEP/Helis, Thompson 1-29/32H, Grail, t8/11; cum 406K 9/13;
  • 22378, PNC, Helis,
  • 23626, PNC, Helis,
  • 19104, 1,203, QEP/Helis, Henderson 16-34/27H, Grail, t5/11; cum 230K 9/13;
  • 22371, 3,668, QEP/Helis, Hazel 13-34/27H, Grail, t5/13; cum 94K 9/13;

KOG Presents At Merrill Lynch

Link here to SeekingAlpha.com.
This is the slide that always bring all the attention to Kodiak and what we’re doing and it has been a growth story. There are no questions. This year has been a year of execution, what we’re trying to accomplish. You’ll see our growth on the far right side. We’ve taken the company basically from 10,000 barrels a day as we entered the year and we hope to exit somewhere close to 27,000 to 30,000 barrels a day. We started the year a little bit slow. We had some acquisitions work that we brought in late 2011-early 2012, integrated that into our company during the first quarter. I think the second and third quarter has been a lot of fun.
We’re all of a sudden rocking on all cylinders here. We’re completing somewhere in the neighborhood of five to six wells with each of our fractures every month now. So we’ve got a busy fourth quarter scheduled, about 26 net wells that we anticipate completing, that’s comprised 23 that we operate ourselves approximately, three not operated. So people ask how we’re going to get from our current 16 range that we exited Q3 with to 27 as pretty simple. The wells are there, we’ve got hold if the weather cooperates a little bit with us. We have two crews that are completing wells right now.
So, on an average we’re getting 10 wells done each month.
The entire presentation is incredible. Don has pointed out several times that one could have bought shares in this little company for 60 cents/share not too long ago.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. See the "disclaimer" and the "welcome" for more. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here. 

Week 46: November 11, 2012 -- November 17, 2012

Note: unfortunately, several important stories do not get posted here because they are "buried" in multiple-story posts.

Bakken operations
New production records in September
Baytex: some of their best wells ever
North Dakota: twelve (12) percent of US oil output
Bakken could produce 4 million bopd by 2025
US to surpass Saudi in production by 2017; surpass Russia by sizeable margin by 2015

Economic development
Wall Street firm to invest millions in new Williston development
Williston, Minot set new permitting records
Dickinson: $1 billion
New Home of Economy in Minot
Headlines from the Williston Wire
Bakken will need 50,000 more workers by 2015
Hotel in Alexander will go up in 90 days
Acme Tools to build in Williston

Deals
Targa Resources to buy Bakken assets $1 billion

Trivia
CO2-EOR in North Dakota 
Coolest link of the week: photos of BNSF crude-by-rail terminals

Commentary
Friday night ramblings
Drilling in North Dakota: federal land vs private land

Dickinson: Projected Growth; Cost Of That Development -- $1 Billion

Assuming the EPA does not shut down the Bakken, of course.

Link here to the Bismarck Tribune.
Dickinson residents took a look at their future Thursday night and saw a population that doubles to 41,000 by 2025 and a vast array of new streets, water lines and towers, sewage lagoons and other improvements to handle it.
They also saw that the cost of $900 million to absorb 20,000 more people amounts to about $45,000 for each one of those newcomers, spread out over time.
The numbers were unveiled in a comprehensive land use plan prepared by KLJ Engineering. The plan shows how and where the city will spread out based on annexation and development requests. And it shows the infrastructure that will have to get there first and existing streets that will have to be rebuilt to carry the new traffic out there.

Random Look At One Township in Little Knife Oil Field

A reader mentioned that there were still five spacing units not held by production in this township, 147-97, if I did not misinterpret the comment, which is always possible.

Looking at the NDIC GIS map that is true, but there are enough wells on confidential status to suggest the remaining spacing units will be held by production soon, if not already. There are "no" dry wells in the Bakken.

Anyway, it gave me an excuse to look at the wells in section 10-147-97, which I thought would have been all BR. But it turns out, there is a Hess-operated 3-well pad, all wells on confidential.

So, here's a look at the wells in section 10-147-97:
  • 18576, 1,190, BR, Concord 24-10H, t2/11; cum 109K t51/13; ~ 20 stages;
  • 23058, 860, Hess, LK-M Elisabeth 147-97-1522H-2, t1/13; cum 66K 5/13;
  • 23059, 644, Hess, LK-M Elisabeth 147-97-1522H-3, t1/13; cum 49K 5/13;
  • 23060, conf, Hess, LK-M Elisabeth 147-97-1522H-4, t2/13; cum 62K 5/13;
  • 22210, 1,920, BR, Concord 34-10MBH, t9/12; cum 87K 5/13;
  • 21454, 2,846, BR, Concord 44-10MBH, t9/12; cum 69K 5/13; 30 stages; 3.5 million lbs;
The three-well pad (#23058, #23059, and #23060) is an illustrative case for newbies. This pad is sited well inside section 10, but based on the names of the wells, all wells will be drilling south into the 1280-acre spacing unit south of section 10. Mineral owners with acres in section 10 won't participate in royalties from these wells. All three wells will be running south.

Saturday Morning WSJ Links

Wow, great book reviews.
A woman of some importance, Constance, Franny Moyle, the story of Oscar Wilde's wife (and two sons).

You are what you read, M. Proust's Library, Anka Muhlstein.

Before Plymouth Rock, and after, The Barbarous Years, Bernard Bailyn.

From Sicily to Dachau, The Liberator, Alex  Kershaw.

Where the myths began, The Patriarch, David Nasaw, about the Kennedys, specifically Joseph.
Lego and me, A Million Little Bricks, Sarah Herman.
 And that's just a sampling. A whole lot more.

A bookman's guide to E-book readers: the reviewer got a lot of it right, but blew it when he suggested the Kindle Paperwhite for "your teenage son, to keep him reading." Getting the Kindle in lieu of an iPad or iPad mini would be a fail. Of course, he would prefer an Android, but this article was talking tablets only. I also question the Nook recommendation for "your sibling, the occasional reader." I wouldn't buy a tablet that was only an e-book for an occasional reader. Again, it would be the iPad mini. But the essay is light reading; introduces folks to the tablets as book readers.

There's an interesting essay on whether to sell assets now before taxes increase next year. Of course, this only applies to the top 2% of Americans. Hardly worth reading, but a quick scan puts a different light on the subject.  It won't be mentioned in the article, but I don't know how many times I've been told not to base buying/selling decisions based on tax consequences. We're seeing how the upper 2% of Americans follow this advice this year.

Finally, an article on life-insurance policies that are draining away due to low interest rates, and some options.  I haven't read the article, but 10 - 1 I will wager: one option was not discussed.

Biggest chuckle of the day, the graph accompanying the story, why Microsoft beats Apple. Wow, I've been hearing that mantra for ten years. Even the writer is skeptical, starting with "Microsoft COULD be the better value." Wow, that's a strong endorsement, considering the headline. Is this just another blog?

Might be an interesting read: fuel rationing is hard to gauge; analysis of actions taken after Sandy.

No links but Petraeus and Twinkies pretty much get equal play in today's Journal.

Peggy Noonan again. Always good. But fell a rung or two after her article just before the election.  I haven't read this article yet but a quick scan suggests it's a "dog bites man" story. Stating the obvious.If she doesn't mention the internet / social networking, she reveals a blind spot.

The Twinkie, a Suicide. I no longer care but it was one of the most-read posts on the blog this week.

And a whole lot more, but that should get you started.