Friday, July 6, 2012

No Gusher for CLR North of Williston -- Reported IP Was In Error -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA


August 16, 2017: the 6,800-bbl IP reported by BR in the Charlson field was a typographical error over at the NDIC

July 20, 2012: see comments. This was a typo/error by NDIC. The CLR well file report shows the IP to be 491.  However, the 6,800-bbl IP reported by BR in the Charlson field seems to be correct.

July 8, 2012: the reported IP is probably an error based on comments from several readers. We should know later this week; watch for NDIC correction. If it is an error, the likely IP was 499.

Original Post
Link here to daily activity report.
  • 21068, 4,91, CLR, Irgens Rexall 156-99-1801H, Williams
The well is in East Fork oil field, about ten miles northeast of Williston. 

By the way, this location/permit was originally a Newfield permit, acquired by CLR.

For newbies, you can check out some initial high production wells at this page.

$7 Billion on Fracking the Bakken in North Dakota in 2012

From Oil and Gas Financial Journal: Over $7 billion will be spent on fracking in the Bakken.

That's just in 2012:
But it's important to point out what is being spent on hydraulic fracturing this year in the Bakken shale, as noted above. WarlickEnergy is forecasting that more than $7 billion will be spent during 2012 to fracture the growing number of completed Bakken wells.

This play could very well be the largest oil discovery in the U.S. outside of Alaska, and estimates of the area's reserves are staggering. The US Geological Survey reported that the Bakken shale is home to approximately 4.3 billion barrels of oil recoverable with current technology, but estimates of total reserves range from 200 billion to 400 billion barrels. The USGS also estimates that the Bakken could hold more than 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.  
I have to chuckle. Folks (very few) write me to tell me they have trouble finding stories on the Bakken and/or stories on North Dakota at this blog. I wonder if they accidentally posted at the wrong site?

But I digress. Some back-of-the envelope calculations:

2,000 Bakken wells will be drilled this year. $7,000,000,000 divided by 2000 wells --> $3.5 million/well.

"They" say the average Bakken well in North Dakota costs anywhere from $7 million to $10 million, and that half of the cost is fracking. So, the numbers seem to jive. My hunch is that $7 billion is low,  however. But whatever it is, it's significant. 

Ryder Scott: June - August, 2012 Newsletter -- Nice Story on the Bakken

Link here and then click on June - August 2012, newsletter.

Meandering Ramblings -- Almost Absolutely Nothing About the Bakken -- DO NOT READ IF YOU CAME HERE FOR THE BAKKEN

I was on the road the past three days, driving from San Antonio, Texas, to Los Angeles, California.

It was "catch-as-catch-can" keeping up with the blog. I'm sure I missed a lot, but I have a general feeling of what's going on. A huge "thank you" to all the readers who kept sending me links and stories. I did not get a chance to reply to all comments. Sorry.

Some observations during the trip:

1. If one did not read newspapers, one might not realize the economy was doing so badly. The roads were very, very busy. I was surprised how busy I-10 in west Texas was. I was surprised with all the truck traffic.  I was concerned about being stranded on I-10 with no traffic to help me. Not to worry. Lots of traffic, and lots of highway patrol.

2. I left at 10:30 p.m. on July Fourth "eve" -- I generally drive at night -- it's cooler, and less traffic. I would have driven straight through, but I had the opportunity to visit my sister and her family in Tucson. I set cruise control at 55 miles per hour, ladi back, and closed my eyes, letting the 2005 Chrysler minivan take over. Just joking, except for the speed. When driving I do set the cruise control to 55 and just meander down the freeway. My setting finally caught up with reality in California. The speed limit in west Texas was 80; the speed limit in Arizona was 70, and the speed limit, as soon as I crossed the state line from Arizona, was 55 for trucks and cars pulling trailers. I don't recall the speed limit for everyone else. I just stayed at 55 until I got to LA metropolitan area. Then it was NASCAR racing.

3. The highlight of the road trip might have been the NASCAR race I got to participate in. About 100 miles from San Pedro, my destination, and starting at the edge of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, the NASCAR race began. The race lasted about an hour.

Generally, NASCAR has truck racing Friday night, the "junior" cars on Saturday, and the Sprint race on Sunday. The Los Angeles NASCAR race is 24/7, and trucks, minivans, conventional cars, and coal-powered cars are all on the track at the same time. Curves and straightaways are six-lanes wide, sometimes wider. Each direction.

Unlike most NASCAR races where there are spotters and crew chiefs, Los Angeles NASCAR drivers are pretty much on their own. I "canceled" cruise control and flowed with the slower drivers at about 70 mph. Just like the NASCAR races you see on television, the drivers that are several laps down are driving much slower than the top ten. I was probably thirty or forty laps off the lead, but I was maintaining minimum speed required to race the Los Angels NASCAR: 69 mph. I was impressed there was no drafting, but I was also impressed how close three cars could get and still not scratch each other's paint job. The moment that two cars crossed in front of me, going at least 90, one coming from the left lane, one coming from the right lane, was impressive. Fortunately, they timed their passing to miss each other. On the other hand, I missed the opportunity to see a great wreck -- it would have made the highlight reel last evening.

As mentioned, the race lasted about an hour: I-10 entering the metropolitan area; to highway 57 south towards Santa Ana; highway 91 west toward Los Angeles again; south on I-110 to San Pedro. At least that's how I remember it. I didn't have a map and didn't have time to turn on the iPad google maps, so I just followed the in-car compass, heading south or west, knowing that I would eventually hit the coast. If any doubt which lane to be in, I just followed the semis pulling "Chinese" trucking company logos -- knowing they were headed to the Los Angeles/Long Beach ports in the San Pedro Harbor.

Oh, which reminds me, the little subcompact trapped between the 18-wheeler and the cement wall on the ramp was very exciting. The truck driver deserves a lot of credit for swinging out to the left preventing the subcompact from becoming a sub-subcompact.

And, by the way, the best part of the race: NO ROAD RAGE. It appears that over the years, the drivers in the Los Angeles NASCAR race have matured. There were no signs of road rage: no honking, no flashing of lights, no forcing folks off the road, no shootings. It appears the new Los Angeles NASCAR rule is: "no harm, no foul." As long as no one is actually hurt, no one gets upset with near-accidents. Cutting other drivers off has become an art form, and drivers that are cut off, don't mind. They marvel at how close cars can come at 90 mph while the drivers are texting. There really is no time for ROAD RAGE when one is texting at 90 mph in an urban NASCAR race. It also explains why attendance at oval race tracks is down; folks can experience it for themselves in LA.

4. It was interesting to watch the progression of customers at Starbucks across the US.  In Boston: 90% are under 25 years of age, and 90% using Mac (and everyone is on a computer). In San Antonio, 75% are under 25 years of age; 75% are using computers, and most are Macs, but Dell is still hanging in there. In El Paso, it was all travelers on the interstate. I was the only one using a computer.  And here in San Pedro, a upper middle class area, 90% are older than 50 years or so in age; no once, except me is on a computer. And, yes, 100% of computer users in this Starbucks are using an Apple. An old, white MacBook, to be specific.

5. The only highway construction I saw along the entire 1,400 mile trip were two huge interstate interchanges, one in El Paso. I forget where the other one was.

6. Oh that reminds me, Indio. Indio, California. Wind farm capital of the US. If you think oil derricks are bad, drive I-10 through Indio. You all will be happy with CLR, Whiting, Chesapeake, KOG, NOG, Oasis, and 100 other drillers in North Dakota. (Yes, I know NOG is not a driller.) I am seldom surprised by anything I see any more (30 years in the USAF exposed me to a lot), but I was blown away (almost literally) by what I saw in Indio. I thought I was in a 3rd world country that had no environmental protection laws. It was incredible.

I noted that about 20% of the wind turbines were not turning. I assume they were choked back to conserve wind.

Seriously, I think ten years from now, if not sooner, there will be a backlash, especially as these new turbines start showing their age.

7. Weather report. It got up to 106 degrees in the Arizona / California desert. Now along the San Pedro coast, a nice cool 75 - 80 degrees.

Eight (8) New Permits -- The Williston Basin -- CLR Has a Gusher -- Zenergy Has a Great Well -- Daily Activity Report -- July 6, 2012

Daily activity report, July 6, 2012 --

New permits:
  • Operators: BR (3), KOG (2), SM Energy (2), Petro-Hunt
  • Fields: Siverston (McKenzie), McGregory Buttes (Dunn), Ranch Creek (McKenzie), Clear Creek (McKenzie)
Wells coming off confidential list today:
  • 20152, 805, EOG, Short Prairies 4-2322H, Round Prairie, t1/12; cum 30K 5/12;
  • 20647, 835, Whiting, Helling 31-27H, wildcat, t1/12; cum 17K 5/12
  • 20662, 75 (no typo), EOG, Vanville 22-2623H, Thompson Lake, cum 10K 5/12;
  • 20817, drl, BR, Conner 34-9H, Haystack Butte, s1/12;
  • 20887, 1,455, EOG, Clarks Creek 13-1806H, Clarks Creek, t3/12; cum 23K 5/12;
  • 20890, 600, EOG, Clarks Creek 11-0706H, Clarks Creek, t3/12; cum 35K 5/12;
  • 20892, 1,352, EOG, Clarks Creek 16-0706H, Clarks Creek, t3/12; cum 29K 5/12;
  • 21657, 1,844, Zenergy, Forland 28-33H, Siverston, t3/12; cum62K 5/12;
  • 21693, WI, Enduro Operating/Ward-Williston, MRPSU 30-22, Madison well; Mouse River Park,
  • 21796, drl, SM Energy, Dahl Federal 2-15H, s1/12;
  • 21942, drl, Newfield, Inga 150-99-11-2-10H, Tobacco Garden, s1/12; 
  • 23126, no data, Hunt, Sioux Trail 1-1-12HX, Divide,
  • 23127, no data, Hunt, Alexandria 1-33-28HTX, Divide,
20891, IA, Clarks Creek 12-0719H, Clarks Creek, was reported earlier, and is part of three-well site including #20890 and 20892 above. Spacing for #20891 is 2560 acres.  Spacing for these three wells, in fact, is 2560 acres.  #20891 was reported earlier (October 3, 2011):
  • 20891, 1,167, EOG, Clarks creek 12-0719H, McKenzie
Idle chatter: some time ago, I was given grief by "Connie" that I posted daily activity reports when one could just as easily go to the source. In this case, it turns out that had I not posted this, it would have taken a long time going through the NDIC website to find the data on #20891. Since it was already posted on the blog, a simple 10-second search found it. Thanks, "Connie," for allowing me to comment.

Nine (9) producing wells were completed, including:
  • 21068, 4,991, CLR, Irgens Rexall 156-99-1801H, Williams
  • 20998, 3,024, BEXP, Charles 3-10 2H,
  • 20999, 2,603, BEXP, Cherrey 34-27 1H, Williams
Operator transfer:
About 122 wells transferred operator from Denbury Onshore to Zavanna, LLC,

Jobs -- June, 2012


July 8, 2012: Timing is everything; this is quite incredible. Earlier, "anonymous" sent me a note telling me that the unemployment numbers were better under those politicians than any politician I had voted for (I don't know how "Connie" knows who I vote for, but I digress.) I don't post Connie's comments due to spelling, punctuation, grammar, and language. I wish I had posted that comment. It is now being reported that unemployment dropped in every state that elected a Republican governor in 2010. Just saying. This won't be reported in the mainstream media.

July 8, 2012: Forget the blame game. I don't care who is responsible or what your myth is -- the point is this: this is a jobless recovery and the trend seems to suggest things have gotten worse, and the mainstream media continues to try to spin it.  A reader sent me this: The new job increase in Jan, Feb and March averaged 225,000 PER month. April, May, and June  was 217,000 TOTAL ... for all three months. Spin it any way you want. Those are the facts. Blame anyone you want. But we will see
July 8, 2012: Forget the blame game, but with regard to jobs, this is the worst recovery in modern era following the end of the recession. There are multiple reasons, but it was predicted a while back it would be a jobless recovery. We all have our myths on why the recovery is "dead last" in modern history. 

July 7, 2012: This subject just won't go away. Now we learn that the president has used the same line regarding the "jobs number" for 30 months

Later, 10: 30: I have to laugh. Someone said my blog should be re-titled to "reflect reality." Shortly after receiving this comment, this story appeared in the LA Times: "Obama: The jobs number is a step in the right direction." If his goal is a government-centric, welfare state, ala Europe in the 1930's, he is correct. I have been reading the Stephen Spender autobiography which reminded me of that.

Later, 9:45 a.m.: I am going to try doing a better job and make sure that each and every post has something to do with the Bakken. Apparently a couple of readers did not like this post because a) it had nothing to do with the Bakken; and, b) it "did not reflect reality." (I cannot make these things up.) Anyway, to tie this post in with the Bakken, from PennEnergy comes this story: US offshore oil and gas potential limited only by regulators.  It should be noted that the comment period for regulating fracking in the Bakken has been extended until September 10, 2012 (earlier story). Sometime after the end of the comment period, Federal fracking regulations will redun-date the state regulations. At that time we will have a controlled experiment: we can watch the oil activity in the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation vs the oil activity in the Dickinson, North Dakota, area.

Later, 9:00 a.m.: By this afternoon, the Drudge Report front page will have changed, but right now, the Drudge Report is full of "cup-half-empty" stories. It is quite incredible how bad this story -- the jobs story -- really is. No matter how you paint it, it's bad, bad, bad.

Original Post

Holy jobs market, Batman!

Remember: the magic number is 200,000.

I have not read the story. I read the headline. I skimmed a few paragraphs. Unemployment still at 8.2 percent. Only 80,000 jobs created. The magic number is the mainstream media's agreed-upon number for number of new jobs needed each month to result in full economic recovery by .... drum roll ... 12 years.  So, if we give the Obama team three terms, ...
For the first six months of the year, U.S. employers added an average of 150,000 jobs a month. That's fewer than the 161,000 a month for the first half of 2011. And it shows that the job market is weakening.

"It's a disappointing report," said George Mokrzan, director of economics at Huntington National Bank in Columbus, Ohio. He said the job gains are consistent with sluggish economic growth. 
But based on a comment from Curt yesterday, he's happy with how things are going. His cup is half-full. 

The "market" must be a "cup half empty" also -- the market fell upon the news.

I'm an eternal optimist. With regard to the jobs report, yes, my cup is half-empty. And dropping. But on most things, my cups are half-full.

[Update: this came in as a new comment for Curt. I would not have had time to look for it, but thanks to another reader: "Fox business news came out with 2 different statistics today.. Jobs created in April 2012, 66,000; May, 70,000; June, 80,000."

So, with that, let's go back to some folks with a half-full cup. We will go back to March, 2012: this Washington Post story was just one of many reporting how good things were getting. And this from the New York Times, May 31, 2012.

200,000 jobs/month is the "magic number."  April + May + June =  216,000.

Yup, my cup is half empty when it comes to jobs under this administration. The recession officially
 ended in 2009.]

Catching Up

In Progress. Posting is being updated. Almost all of these links / stores were sent in by readers over the past few days.

1. Jobs

2.  New billion-dollar fertilizer plant being proposed, from the Grand Forks Herald:
Plans are moving along for a $1 billion nitrogen fertilizer plant that could make use of the natural gas now being flared off in western North Dakota’s Oil Patch.

The North Dakota Corn Growers Association announced Monday that a feasibility study has been completed for the plant, with the steering committee of corn growers and fertilizer industry consultants looking at building the facility in North Dakota, South Dakota or Minnesota.
I will be very, very surprised if it's built in Minnesota. I assume the promoters are looking to get the three states to compete for the project.

3. Bismarck Tribune reports on a "treasure map of the Bakken." Unfortunately, the Tribune does not provide a link. I will find it later.  It's been my experience, "print" media just hates to provide links to other sites.

4. RBN Energy: link to RBN Energy: coal to gas switching, Part I; Part II

5. A lot of dots to connect. If I have time, I may to it later, but regular readers will understand. It appears the Poles and our own President Obama have a lot in common when it comes to shale gas.

6. Link to Independent Stock Analysis.

7. "Collusion" appears to the "word du jour." This is a wrap-of regarding the inquiry of  Japan's Fukushima nuclear crisis. Yesterday, it was Countrywide, here in the US. And then there's a couple of natural gas companies.

8. I am posting / linking this link only for a bit of humor.  According to yet another computer model:
Since the late 1800s, the globe has warmed by about 1.33 degrees Fahrenheit (0.74 degrees Celsius). 
0.74 degrees Celsius change since 1800's -- let's make that 1812 -- a good year for a war and easier to subtract from 2012 -- 200 years -- and the earth has warmed up 0.74 degrees? Neither statistically significant nor reproducible. Exactly where were these thermometers placed in 1812? At least the study blames the Chinese for once and not the former president.

9. Key "Democrat" vote in North Carolina overrides the governor's veto: fracking to be allowed in North Carolina.
The oil and natural gas industry supports more than 135,000 jobs in North Carolina and a recent study shows that, with the right policies, more than 40,000 additional jobs can be created throughout the state by 2020. 
This story has been posted across the mainstream media for several days.  Apparently the deciding vote was cast by a representative that was either (choose one or more that fit): red-green color-blind, confused, duplicitous, or to use the "word du jour": in collusion with the oil and gas industry. 

10. Peak oil? What peak oil? More from SeekingAlpha.

11. Another one bites the dust. Another Obama-backed green energy project, Nevada Geothermal Power, pre-announced it is turning off the lights