Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Random Look At An Old Multiple Payzone Well in The Williston Basin

Three payzone well, total production, ~ 2.63 million bbls; now PNA

  • 235, 478, Hess, Lalim-Borstad 35-41, Tioga field, Madison; t1/53; cum 283K; PNA;
  • 235, 429, Hess, Lalim-Borstad 35-41, Tioga field, Ordovician; t8/67; cum 956K; PNA;
  • 235, 265, Hess, Lalim-Borstad 35-41, Tioga field,  Devonian; t7/84; cum 1.40 million; PNA;
For other monster wells in the Williston Basin, click here

Ten Facts About The COP Spin-Off -- SeekingAlpha

Link here to SeekingAlpha.com.

One share of Phillips 66 (PSX) for two shares of COP.

COP: 4.5% dividend, likely.

PSX: 2.2% dividend, likely.

Annual dividend increases from each company, again likely.

Distribution will occur Monday, April 30, 2012.

The Phillips 66 shares are currently trading at $35.68. The post-spinoff Conoco is currently trading at $54.52. The combined Conoco is trading at $72.33. Let's say you owned 100 shares of Conoco, worth $7,233. Your 50 shares of Phillips 66 would be worth $1,784. Your post spinoff Conoco shares would be worth $5,452. That equals $7,236 in total, implying that the "when issued" market is trading at a negligible premium right now.

Eight (8) New Permits -- The Mercer Well On DRL Status -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report, April 24, 2012 --

Operators: CLR (2), G3 Operating (2), Whiting, Hunt, Petro-Hunt, and SM Energy

Fields: Cartwright (McKenzie), Elm Tree (McKenzie), Wolf Bay (Dunn), Bell (Stark), and Lone Tree Lake (Williams)

G3 Operating has permits for two wildcats in Williams County.

Three wells were released from "tight hole" status and not one reported an IP. Two were Red River wells and one was a Bakken well in Mercer County. Whiting had one of the Red River wells (in Golden Valley County) and CLR had the other Red River well, in Bowman County.

The Mercer County well:

Carpe Diem Links Regarding North Dakota

North Dakota leads nation in growth.  North Dakota led the country with a 10.7% annual gain. North Dakota was second (2.9%) in quarterly increase behind West Virginia (3.44%) for 1Q12. -- Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

Shale-based economic boom.

Holy Mackeral! Expected $10; Actual $12 -- A Blow-Out

Updates

April 25, 2012: AAPL is up an astounding $51 in pre-market trading.

Original Post

Disclaimer: this post was typed on the fly while listening to CNBC and flipping back and forth to financial websites. There may be errors, especially with the numbers.

Disclaimer: I've never owned shares in AAPL and don't own any shares in AAPL now and won't be buying any shares in AAPL. Apple, Inc., is simply my favorite company.

AAPL.

Beats expectations by $2.26 and most talking heads all day thought AAPL would miss. The CNBC analyst following AAPL appears absolutely stunned. He says he's looking for something to "calm" this down, but can't find anything. Can't explain why ATT and Verizon did not foreshadow these numbers. Obviously it's all about overseas growth this most recent quarter. [This is the big story of the day: the CNBC analyst completely missed the China story; they were focused on ATT and Verizon iPhones and felt that AAPL was going to miss on number of iPhones sold. This is a CHINA story. And this affects more than just AAPL. Think energy.]

35 million iPhones.
12 million iPads.
7 million iPods (stronger than expected)
4 million iMac desktops/laptops -- a little light [for newbies: AAPL has announced a new operating system later this summer; rumors of refresh in hardware this summer; the big quarter for iMacs is the quarter before school starts and the first full quarter of fall semester]

Everybody is too focused on the cash horde; tiring. Cash at end of 2Q12: $110 billion.

AAPL CFO: Highest March quarter ever for earnings, revenue. They can't make the iPhones fast enough; they sell them as fast as they make them. iPads flying off the shelves overseas.

One analyst: "Huge."
Another analyst: "A very good number."
Maria: "A blowout."
Maria: "Another blowout." She's about to have a stroke.
Maria: "posting another very strong quarter."

2Q12 revenues: $39.2 billion; forecast $36.8 billion

Ten seconds after the announcement and Maria the talking ahead is asking how can they keep going? What can they do next? A bit tiresome. "They've" been asking that from AAPL from the very beginning.

Up $25 after hours immediately following the announcement. Now, at 4:50 p.m. EDT, it's  up $41.22/share.

Wow, I'm glad I'm not short AAPL.

All the above typed, and posted, and the link to the "Business Insider " has not yet posted any AAPL earnings. At 4:46 no update from this "live" site. My initial post was date/time-stamped (note the time-stamp is Central Daylight Time, one hour earlier than Eastern Daylight Time).

Remember all those concerns about the passing of Steve?

Wow, now the Fast Money folks are eating crow. Wow.

Wells To Watch: Oasis Wells in Crazy Man Creek

Crazy Man Creek: a few miles west of the bull's eye of the Bakken
Updates

November 7, 2012: there are now nine wells active, drilling, or permitted in section 12-153-100 (some will be drilling south into Willow Creek oil field);

Davis, #19638:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20121111769115937584104759654821
BAKKEN5-20120000000
BAKKEN4-20120000000


Permits

2015
31177, conf, CLR, Jefferson 10-17H1, no production data,
31176, conf, CLR, Jefferson 9-17H, no production data,
31175, conf, CLR, Jefferson 8-17H1, no production data,

2014 (list is complete)
30240, loc, CLR, Bud 5-30H,
30239, loc, CLR, Bud 5-30H1,
30238, loc, CLR, Alfsvaag 5-31H,
30237, loc, CLR, Alfsvaag 4-31H1,
29845, drl, CLR, Stangeland 5-7H,
29844, drl, CLR, Stangeland 4-7H1,
29843, drl, CLR, Hayes 5-6H,
29842, drl, CLR, Hayes 4-6H,
29841, drl, CLR, Maynor 3-35H,
29840, drl, CLR, Maynor 2-35H1,
29839, drl, CLR, Maynor 1-35H,
29251, drl, Zavanna, Sigurd 5-8 7H,
29250, drl, Zavanna, Sigurd 5-8 5TFH,
29249, drl, Zavanna, Sigurd 5-8 3H,
29248, drl, Zavanna, Sigurd 5-8 1TFH,
29245, PNC, CLR, Maynor PNC,
29036, conf, CLR, Stangeland 2-7H,
29035, conf, CLR, Stangeland 3-7H1,
29034, conf, CLR, Hayes 2-6H,
29033, conf, CLR, Hayes 3-6H1,
28938, conf, CLR, Bud 2-30H
28937, conf, CLR, Bud 3-30H1,
28936, conf, CLR, Alfsvaag 2-31H,
28935, conf, CLR, Alfsvaag 3-31H1,
28139, conf, CLR, Jefferson 7-17H,
28138, conf, CLR, Jefferson 6-17H1,
27630, conf, CLR, Brogger 6-4H1, producing,
27629, conf CLR, Brogger 7-4H, producing,

2013 (list is complete)
26480, 900, CLR, Brogger 5-4H1, t7/14; cum 101K 3/15;
26479, 856, CLR, Brogger 4-4H, t7/14; cum 108K 3/15;
25914, 1,060, Zavanna, Bills 5-8 1H, t8/14; cum 127K 3/15;
25912, IA/1,162, Zavanna, Bills 5-8 3TFH, t8/14; cum 36K 3/15; taken off-line November, 2014; very few days on line;
25906, 724, CLR, Jefferson 4-17H,
25905, 1,073, CLR, Jefferson 3-17H1,
25904, 951, CLR, Jefferson 5-17H, t1/14; cum 82K 6/14;
25566, 432, CLR, Brogger, 3-4H, t9/13; cum 68K 6/14; off-line / intermittent production since 2/14;
25565, 439, CLR, Brogger 2-4H1, t8/13; cum 44K 6/14; off-line / intermittent production from 1/14;

Issued in 2012 (after original post)
22225, 868, Oasis, A K Stangeland 5300 43-12T, Crazy Man Creek, 3,777 bbls in September, 2012, first month with production, t9/12; cum 104K 6/14;
22303, 1,952, Oasis, Thomas S 5300 41-12B, Crazy Man Creek, 6,303 bbls in September, 2012, first month with production, t10/12; cum 190K 6/14;
22304, 1,364, Oasis, Celia S 5300 41-12T, Crazy Man Creek, 8,939 bbls in September, 2012, first month with production, t10/12; cum 137K 6/14;
22347, 2,621, Oasis, Basey 5300 44-12T, Crazy Man Creek, 23,990 bbls in September, 2012, first month with production, t9/12; cum 134K 6/14;
22348, 2,661, Oasis, Kovars 5300 44-12B, Crazy Man Creek, 15,146 bbls in September, 2012, first month with production, t9/12; cum 141K 6/14;
22762, 599, CLR, Jefferson 2-17H, Crazy Man Creek, Bakken, 19,792 bbls run in full month of September, 2012; first produced in August, 2012; t8/12; cum 127K 6/14;
22986, 613, CLR, Alfsvaag 1-31H, Crazy Man Creek, Bakken, t10/12; cum 187K 6/14;
23017, 4,174, Oasis, Ashlin 5300 44-12B, Willow Creek, Bakken (sited inside Crazy Man Creek), t2/13; cum 160K 6/16;
23018, 2,559, Oasis, Andy 5300 44-12T, Willow Creek, Bakken (sited inside Crazy Man Creek), t2/13; cum 116K 6/14;

Issued prior to 2012, not otherwise noted below

19638, 2,563, Oasis, Davis 5300 42-12H, Crazy Man Creek, t9/12; cum 141K 6/14; 36 stages; 4.1 million lbs, sand and ceramics; huge decline in production in the fourth month of production; on natural gas line;
19639, 2,414, Oasis, Cook 5300 42-12H, Willow Creek, t9/11; cum 217K 6/14;
19982, 1,197, Zavanna, Bruce 5-8 1H, Crazy Man Creek, Bakken; t1/12; cum 240K 6/14;
19984, 787, CLR, Brogger 104H, Crazy Man Creek, Bakken, t8/11; cum 162K 6/14;
20833, 461, CLR, Jefferson 1-17H, Crazy Man Creek, Bakken, t8/11; cum 176K 6/14;
20120, 385, XTO, Olson State 11X-16, Crazy Man Creek, Bakken, t12/11; cum 121K 6/14;

Original Post 
(Note: well data may be updated from original post)

Elsewhere they're talking about the Oasis wells in Crazy Man Creek (the link is broken; Teegue couldn't stand all the nonsense at the discussion group). There are no less than nine Oasis wells permitted, drilling, or drilled at the moment sited in section 12, T153-R100W, Crazy Man Creek, just a few miles west of the bull's eye of the Bakken.

Crazy Man Creek is a small, rectangular field, running north/south, comprising about 23 sections. 

These nine are all in straight line running west-east about 150 feet north of the south line of the section (data is updated above and might not be updated below)
  • 19638, running north, 2,563, Oasis, Davis 5300 42-12H, t9/12; cum 141K 6/14; 
  • 19639, running south, 2,414, Oasis, Cook 5300 42-12H, t9/11; cum 217K 6/14; cased hole, 4.3 million pounds (1.7 sand; 2.6 ceramics)
  • 22225, running north, 868, Oasis, A K Stangeland 5300 43-12T, Crazy Man Creek, t9/12; cum 104K 6/14;
  • 22303, running north, 1,952, Oasis, Thomas S 5300 41-12B, Crazy Man Creek, t10/12; cum 190K 6/14;
  • 22304, running north, 1,364, Oasis, Celia S 5300 41-12T, Crazy Man Creek, t1/13; cum 137K 6/14;
  • 23017, 4,174, Oasis,  Ashlin 5300 44-12B, Willow Creek, t6/13; cum 160K 6/14;
  • 23018, 2,559, Oasis, Andy 5300 44-12T, Crazy Man Creek, t5/13; cum 116K 6/14;
  • 22347, 2,621, Oasis, Basey 5300 44-12T, Crazy Man Creek, t1/13; cum 134K 6/14;
  • 22348, 2,661, Oasis, Kovars 5300 44-12B, Crazy Man Creek, t2/13; cum 141K 6/14;
A couple things to note.

Well files are available for:
  • 22303: middle Bakken well;
  • 22304: Three Forks well;
  • 19638: middle Bakken well;
  • 19639: middle Bakken well;
  • 22225: Three Forks well;
  • 22347: Three Forks well;
  • 22348: middle Bakken well;
The "B" designation in two of the wells (22348 and 22303): middle Bakken.
The "T" designation in two of the wells (22348 and 22304): Three Forks.
The lack of designation in some of the earlier wells (probably middle Bakken).
The "S" designation in two of the wells (22303 and 22304) -- on the same pad; probably family name.

*********************

A Note to the Granddaughters

I am about halfway through Siddhartha Mukherjee's The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography of Cancer, c. 2010. I happened to see it the softcover book at the Yellow Umbrella Bookstore in Chatham, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, last week. I didn't know whether to get it. I don't care to read books on medicine. It may be the one genre, along with murder mysteries and romance novels, that I don't care to read. 

But there was something about the book that attracted me to pick it up, to look at it more closely. I liked the feel, the font, and the fact that it had a golden sticker on the front, "Winner of the Pulitzer Prize."

Some years ago I read Daniel Yergin's The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power.  It is an outstanding book. The best part about it for me was that it brought me up to date with the history of oil companies, who begat whom, how they begat, and why they begat. Its subtitle, like Mukherjee's book, could have been: "a biography of oil." Like cancer, oil has become a personality, a living entity. 

And so with Mukherjee's book: it truly is a biography. I'm only halfway through, buy my hunch is that by the time I am finished I will know the life of "cancer" from birth through its teenage years. That is probably about how far "we" are in defeating this scourge -- up to the teenage years. 

On so many levels this story is absolutely fascinating. For me, the best parts are too personal to allow me to record at this time. I may do so eventually.

But a vignette is in order. I've always enjoyed classical history, for example, the war(s) between the Greeks and the Persians. 

It turns out the daughter of Cyrus, Atossa, was married to Darius, successive Achaemenid emperors of Persia. In the middle of her reign, Atossa developed breast cancer -- of course, it was not called that then, nor did anyone have any idea what it was, but it was unbearably painful. 
If Atossa had desired it, an entire retinue of physicians from Babylonia to Greece would have flocked to her bedside to treat her. Instesd, she descended into a fierce and impenetrable loneliness. She wrapped herself in sheets, in a self-imposed quarantine. Darius' doctors may have tried to treat her, but to no avail. Ultimately, a Greek slave named Democedes persuaded her to allow him to excise the tumor.
Mukherjee says "we" don't know how it all turned out, how long she lived after the "surgery," and what she died of, but at least it was a temporary success. She lived long enough to grant the slave Democedes anything he wanted. His request? To return to his homeland, Greece.
Darius had been planning a campaign against Scythia on the eastern border of his empire.... Atossa pleaded with her husband to turn his campaign westward -- to invade Greece.
That war and the series of Greco-Persian wars that followed were the result.

It's interesting. I've studied and read about the Greco-Persian wars in high school (or middle school); in college, and in Air War College (United States Air Force senior officer school in residence and in seminar) and not once did anyone suggest this very human explanation for the reason Darius turned to Greece at this particular moment in time. I never even thought to ask the question, "why?" After all, the Scythians (and any number of other non-Persians) shared a land border with Persia and would have been a more immediate concern. Greece was hardly a problem, it appears in retrospect, and certainly not something that jumps out at you if thinking about where Persia might invade "next."

Gulf Coast Refinery Interest -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

Updates

August 22, 2012: update of three refinery projects in North Dakota (April 7, 2012).

August 22, 2012: In the Bakken; the Trenton Diesel Refinery; apparently on track (a PDF file); all permits; financing being arranged; construction to begin soon; to be completed late 2013; 

Original Post

I wanted to add this story as a short update, just a link to an already-posted story, but it didn't seem to fit anywhere.

It has to do with refineries, something I've only recently touched upon. It seems, all of a sudden, folks are interested in refineries: refineries closing on the East Coast; a new Saudi/Shell refinery at Port Arthur; and, now, this: Gulf Coast seeing a resurgence in interest in refining.

Data points:
  • cheap natural gas / surge in natural gas production is leading to a renaissance for the chemical refining industry in Texas
  • a number of energy companies will reinvest in refining plants in the region
  • Dow announced (April 19) plans for a new $1.7 billion natural gas refining plant at its Freeport facilities, Houston; just part of Dow's $4 billion investment plan for the region
  • others, including Royal Dutch Shell, COP, will invest $8.7 billion in the region
Pretty remarkable.

Only One Number I'm Interested In This Week

This is the only number I'm interested in this week: where WTI settles at close of business, Friday.

I say that because yesterday, throughout the day CNBC "advertised" a talking head that opined that oil was likely to go under $100 by the end of the week. If CNBC mentioned that this one time yesterday, they mentioned it a dozen times. Finally he was on, and yes, indeed, he said that oil was likely to go below $100 by the end of the week.

****************

A Note to the Granddaughters

Welcome home! You told me all about your wonderful one-week vacation to Florida / Disneyworld / EPCOT Center. You really were impressed! The first thing the younger one said when we picked up the family at the Manchester, NH, airport: "Wow, it really is colder here than it is in Florida."

I remember when we were stationed overseas, eastern Turkey, and we would hear back from our families and/or friends that they were worried about us when they read a headline about some terrorist act in the region in which we lived. Generally, we had no idea what they were talking about. Either it was such a minor "act of terror" we had not even been told of it, or it was so far away from where we were it affected us not.

I was reminded of that yesterday when I told my wife that there was an earthquake yesterday morning in California centered exactly where my brother-in-law and his wife live, where the swallows come back every year. Or is it the Monarch butterflies? Whatever. Capistrano/Huntington Beach: a 3.2 trembler yesterday morning.

So, last night on the drive up to Manchester, my wife calls her brother to ask about the earthquake. Her sister-in-law, Cindy, answers (she does not read my blog so she will not see her name in print). May asks her about the earthquake.
"Flavio, was there an earthquake here today?" she yells across the room to her husband.

"Well, there most certainly way," comes the reply ("and don't interrupt me while I'm watching golf" is his unsaid thought, no doubt).

"I guess there was. I didn't feel it," she tells May.
So, there you have it. A 3-inch, one-column story -- linked at Drudge? Is that where I saw it? -- devoted to this trembler and a) some didn't feel it, even at the epicenter; and, b) those who did, didn't find it newsworthy to tell their spouses.

Maybe we'll feel a bigger one when we visit this summer.

To Report Today: QEP, T, AAPL, BHI, STR, NBR

Long, long list of companies reporting today. Link to WSJ -- subscription may be needed.

  • QEP -- after market close
  • NBR -- after market close
  • T -- beat expectations; wow, nice bounce for ATT, up 3% in early trading;
  • AAPL -- time not provided; generally late in day
  • BHI -- profits dip, but beats expectations
  • STR -- after market close
Earnings Central here.

RBN Energy: Overview of the Eagle Ford -- And A New Number for the Bakken

Updates

Later, 9:51 am: I posted the story below earlier this morning, posting it quickly to get it to readers while waiting for the day to start, not thinking much about it.  But on the way into Boston this a.m. I thought about the article again, and three thoughts came to mind:
a) regardless of how this plays out (Eagle Ford vs Bakken), this is really quite something. For Texas, the story is "lost" because it was already known as an oil state; this just adds another chapter. For North Dakota, it is amazing (for me) to see North Dakota playing at the same level as Texas when it comes to oil. Not many have associated North Dakota with oil;
b) by Texas standards, that really is not much of a difference between 1,300- and 1,500-thousand bbls/day, especially when they are just projections and anything can happen; and,
c) for North Dakota -- well, at least for me -- 1,300-thousand -- 1.3 million bbls of oil per day really is a huge number. I think it's a "new" number, and it's not very far off -- 2016? 
I don't know about you, but almost tripling "our" output between now and 2016 is quite remarkable. Think of the pipeline that needs to be laid, the unit trains that will be added, and the number of F-350's on the back roads being driven by women who need to check the status of the wells, the pipelines, and just about everything else.  

Original Post
Link here to RBN Energy.
Last week we covered the incredible growth and potential of the Bakken, where production is just over 600 MB/d headed toward 1,300 Mb/d in 2016 based on Bentek forecasts.    
We were immediately inundated with demands for equal time from that other super-high-growth tight oil play – the Eagle Ford.  “Hey”, say the Eaglefordians – “We are now the most active horizontal oil play, blowing past the Willison Basin late last year. Don’t you think we deserve just as much airtime?”  Yes, they do.  This week the total Eagle Ford rig count came in at 274 with 202 targeting oil.  According to www.eaglefordshale.com, both numbers are records.
The numbers are definitely off the scale. From only 50 Mb/d as recently as April 2010, Eagle Ford production is now over 500 Mb/d (yes, 10X in two years) and according to Bentek headed to 1,500 Mb/d in 2016, or a couple of hundred thousand barrels per day over the Bakken.  
For investors, the opportunities have increased several-fold.

Carpe Diem: Eagle Ford vs Bakken

Carpe Diem provides a first look/comparison of the Eagle Ford in Texas with the Bakken in North Dakota.

I'm posting the link for obvious reasons, but I'm not concerned about an "oil race." I assume the Eagle Ford will surpass the Bakken. It will be what it will be.

Carpe Diem says there are 217 active rigs in the Eagle Ford. The record number of rigs in North Dakota is 213; not all rigs are targeting the Bakken, though probably about 95% are targeting the Bakken.

Carpe Diem on Speculation

Carpe Diem has several posts regarding "speculators" and price of oil, natural gas.  Here they are: