Friday, February 10, 2012

Common Sense -- Wind -- The Numbers Just Don't Add Up -- And Consequences Will Be Ugly -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

[Related article: The Netherlands pulls the plug on off-shore wind; Spain suspends all renewable energy projects.]

Red sent me the following link to the Independent. Great, great editorial. 
Russia's main gas-company, Gazprom, was unable to meet demand last weekend as blizzards swept across Europe, and over three hundred people died. Did anyone even think of deploying our wind turbines to make good the energy shortfall from Russia?

Of course not. We all know that windmills are a self-indulgent and sanctimonious luxury whose purpose is to make us feel good. Had Europe genuinely depended on green energy on Friday, by Sunday thousands would be dead from frostbite and exposure, and the EU would have suffered an economic body blow to match that of Japan's tsunami a year ago. No electricity means no water, no trams, no trains, no airports, no traffic lights, no phone systems, no sewerage, no factories, no service stations, no office lifts, no central heating and even no hospitals, once their generators run out of fuel.

Modern cities are incredibly fragile organisms, which tremble on the edge of disaster the entire time. During a severe blizzard, it is electricity alone that prevents a midwinter urban holocaust. We saw what adverse weather can do, when 15,000 people died in the heatwave that hit France in August 2003. But those deaths were spread over a month. Last weekend's weather, without energy, could have caused many tens of thousands of deaths over a couple of days.

Why does the entire green spectrum, which now incorporates most conventional parties across Europe, deny the most obvious of truths? To play lethal games with our energy systems in order to honour the whimsical god of climate change is as intelligent and scientific as the Aztec sacrifice of their young. Actually, it is far more frivolous, because at least the Aztecs knew how many people they were sacrificing: no one has the least idea of the loss of life that might result from the EU embracing "green" energy policies.

Frau Merkel has announced that Germany is going to phase out nuclear power, simply because of the Japanese tsunami. Well, that is like basing water-collection policies in Rhineland-Westphalia on the monsoon cycle of Borneo. As I was saying last week, the Germans have a powerfully emotional attachment to everything that is "green", and an energy policy based on renewables will usually win German hearts. But it will not protect the owners of those hearts from frostbite and death due to exposure, for wind can often be not so much a Renewable as an Unusable, and also an Unpredictable, an Unstorable, and -- normally when it's very cold -- an Unmovable.

The seriousness of this is hard to exaggerate. The temperature in the Baltic countries last weekend was -33 degrees Celsius. The Eurasian landmass from Calais to Naples to Siberia was an icefield in which hundreds of millions of people were trapped. Without coal, oil and nuclear energy, mass deaths of the old and the young would have occurred on the first night. Three nights on of such conditions, and even the physically fit would have been dying of exposure, as the temperature inside dwellings fell and began to match that of the outside, an inverse image of what happened during the French heatwave 10 years ago, when there was no escape from the heat.

Yet you will see nowhere in Dail Eireann, or Brussels, or the Palace of Westminster, a serious discussion about energy policies based on these realities, or which acknowledges that wind usually doesn't blow when it is very cold, or that even when you have strong and steady winds blowing, you will still have to have created a parallel and duplicate energy supply to provide cover for when the wind stops. And merely to create that standby energy system will generate a zillion tons of carbon dioxide.

Wind power in Ireland actually produces only 22pc of its capacity: would you spend $100,000 on a car if it meant that $78,000 of the purchase price was wasted? It gets worse. On a really cold day, we actually need about 5,000 megawatts, but yesterday wind was producing under 50 megawatts: a grand total of 1pc of requirements.

Yet despite such appalling figures, we legally prohibit civil servants from even looking at the nuclear option. They won't even take a phone-call on the subject. Instead, the fiction has taken hold amongst our media classes that we are close to being an exporter of renewable energy through the much-vaunted interconnector with Britain. But this is grotesquely untrue. We shall actually be exporting through the connector only 3pc of the time, and importing 86pc, with the system otherwise idle.
As I have noted elsewhere, and this article validates, the wind power numbers do not add up.  After all this time and all this investment, "yesterday wind was producing a grand total of one (1) percent of requirements.

Former Shell CEO: $5.00 Gasoline Is Very Possible Before End of Year


February 14, 2012: Lehigh Valley says the same thing --
American motorists have seen the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline rise above $3.50 a gallon on just three occasions, but it has never happened this early in the year. Analysts say it's likely a sign that pain at the pump will rise to some of the highest levels ever seen later this year.

In 2008, average gasoline prices had hit inflation-adjusted records nationally by the summer, but they didn't climb above $3.50 a gallon across the U.S. that year until April 21, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge Report. It happened again last year, but not until March 6.

But $3.50 a gallon gasoline is already here in 2012, weeks before refineries typically shut down for springtime maintenance, and weeks before the states switch from their less expensive winter blends of gasoline to more complicated and pricier summer blends.
February 10, 2012: is India's demand for oil insatiable, as the former Gulf CEO says? Read this NY Times article; the answer is obvious. In case the link breaks, this story is about India, touting US as a reliable ally, continues to buy oil from Iran despite US/EU sanctions.

February 10, 2012: in central Massachusetts, there are some (only a few) service stations now selling premium gasoline for $4.10/gallon. In real terms, that's not all that far from $5.00. In fact, a couple years ago, making a  prediction that gasoline would hit $5.00 was a bit fantastic for some to believe. But now that premium is at $4.10, it is not all that bold to predict $5.00 gasoline. If premium is $4.10 in central, rural Massachusetts, I can only imagine what some stations are selling premium gasoline for in Los Angeles, NYC, or Washington, DC.

Some suggest that gasoline will easily rise another 60 cents this spring (refinery issues, for the most part),

For some, $4.00 gasoline might as well be $5.00 gasoline. Just saying. And that explains the current data showing significant demand destruction.

Original Post

This former Shell CEO has seldom been wrong. He is very direct.

He made a very, very good point about headlines that IEA is cutting its forecast for oil demand. The forecast is NOT FOR LESS demand, the forecast is for a SLOWING IN THE INCREASING RATE OF DEMAND.

Demand will continue to increase, just not as fast as originally forecast.

The former Shell CEO points out that the insatiable Chinese and Indian demand is being overlooked.

By the way, here's a reminder of what happened when oil spiked to $140; shortly thereafter, with the recession, back into the $40's.

Nice Article in the National Geographic on the Bakken and Similar Tight Oil Formations

Chris alerted me to this National Geographic article on the current state of oil production in the US due to the Bakken and similar shales. Nothing new for regular readers of this blog.

A big "thank you" to Chris for this link; a nice article (and a nice photo) for newbies.

Collapse in Bakken OIl Prices -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

We've been talking about this for the last couple of days, but this is a very nice analysis of the collapse in price of the price of Bakken oil. A big "thank you" to "anon 1" for the link.

I believe I recently posted my thoughts of the ramification of this collapse.

The Four (4) TFS Benches -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

From a reader in response to today's posting on Surge's plan for waterflooding:
If you go to and click on operations then click on red river units you will read about the 7th largest onshore oil field in the lower 48. Cedar Hills Unit Red River B is described as a continuous DOLOMITE formation. They also talk about secondary recovery injecting air and water. They have been producing from this field since 1995.
I went to NDIC GIS map and zoomed in on Bowman County, picked out a random group of wells and came up the following results. Well file #16699 has produced 221,416 barrels of oil since 10/8/07. Looking at the monthly production record you can see that production for the last month was 5,721 BBLS. Its lowest point of production was in October of 2008 at 1,668. Since then production has steadily increased to today's rate.

Now look at well file 13948 and you will see a well that runs adjacent to and parallel to the first well. This well was completed 2/26/97. It produced 284,697 barrels of oil by June of 2008 before becoming an injection well.

About 4 months after 13948 became an injection well, 16699 started to rebound and has done very nice ever since.

Aren't the productive zones of the Bakken and Three Forks a continuous layer of DOLOMITE? Do you suppose there may be any similarities with the Red River Dolomite and the Bakken?

Do you suppose that some day when Continental has 4 horizontal wells drilled in the MB and each of the 4 TFS benches that they will only be 1/2 done drilling? With all those first wells eventually becoming injection wells.
Yes, I think that's a huge likelihood -- only 1/2 done.

Finally: USAF Likes the iPad (Maybe) -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

Link here to LA Times.

After years of denying its members access to Apple products (except at headquarters and graphics shops) the USAF is now embracing the iPad (maybe).
The U.S. Air Force is thinking about buying some iPads — somewhere between 63 and 18,000 of them.
In a notice posted on the Federal Business Opportunities website, the Air Force’s Air Mobility Command office says it is specifically interested in purchasing the iPad 2, but will also consider other brand-name tablet devices. The tablets will be used as electronic flight bags for flight crew members and trainers — replacing the hefty bag of manuals and navigation charts currently used by pilots and navigators that can weigh as much as 40 pounds.

“The airline industry is way ahead of us on this,” Capt. Kathleen Ferrero, a spokeswoman for the command, told Bloomberg News. “Most if not all the major airlines are already switching to tablets.”

Apple products are increasingly being embraced at the federal level, both by the military and other federal agencies. As of September the U.S. Marines had more than 30 iPads in cockpits across their fleet of helicopters and fighter jets, The Times reported, and just this week the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said its employees would be getting iPhones rather than BlackBerry smartphones.
All I can say is "about time." The USAF has always prided itself in being a leader in technology, but by refusing to "go Apple," it is lagging. Privately, many USAF members already use Apple computers and tablets. 

And if they go with another tablet, ... sad. I guess the Kindle or the Nook will give Air Force officers something to read on those long flights.

Random Note on the Patten 1-33-34H -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA -- February 10, 2012


December 18, 2016: no explanation in the file report for the recent bump-up in production after coming off-line for a couple of months. Well  #30411 was possibly fracked at this time.
  • 18705, 990, Hunt, Patten 1-33-34H 1, Parshall, t7/10; cum 282K 5/17;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

November 27, 2012: the well has been back on line since January, 2012, and a pump is in place, apparently answering the question. The well was off-line for 30 days in May-June (2012) but is now back on line, producing about 3,500 bbls oil per month.

Original Post

Elsewhere they are asking why this very good well is off-line?
  • 18705, 990, Hunt, Patten 1-33-34H-1, s4/10; t7/10; AL; cum 282K 5/17; no production in December (2011); 2,000 bbls in just 19 days in November (2011); prior to that, 5 - 6,000 bbls/month; hyperbolic decline, starting with 21K first month of production, dropping to 13K the second month, and then down to 5K/month; in 2014, about 2,500 bopm
Tagged to follow-up later. Possibly taken off-line to put a pump on; possibly a work-over rig if the pump was already on.

Update, July 10, 2012: generally about 4,000 bbls/month; in May, 2012, on-line for only 16 days and produced only 1900 bbls.

Twelve (12) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

GMXR has a nice well; Eternal Energy cancels all its North Dakota permits; a Lodgepole reef well in the Dickinson area comes up DRY; BEXP temporarily abandons a Mercer County well; 0/7 wells completed on "tight hole list"; 19 wells on DRL status report an IP

Daily activity report, February 10, 2012 --

Operators: Hess (6), Oasis (2), Denbury Onshore, Zenergy, CLR, and Liberty Resources

Fields: Siverston, Battleview, Elk, Manitou, Camp, Cottonwood, Cow Creek

It looks like Hess has permits for a 6-well pad in Manitou field (Mountrail County). See first comment below. The six permits will be three wells each on two different pads; to me it appears three horizontals will run north, and three horizontals will run south. Four will probably be middle Bakken and two will probably be Three Forks:
  • #22393 - HESS, EN-DAKOTA N-155-94- 211609H-3, 
  • #22394 - HESS, EN-DAKOTA N-155-94- 211609H-2, 
  • #22395 - HESS, EN-DAKOTA N-155-94- 211609H-1,
    #22396 - HESS, EN-DAKOTA S-155-94- 211609H-4,
  • #22397 - HESS, EN-DAKOTA S-155-94- 211609H-5, 
  • #22398 - HESS, EN-DAKOTA S-155-94- 211609H-6,
Seven (7) wells were released from "tight hole" status; amazingly, not one of them was completed/fracked (0/7).
  • However, amazingly, nineteen (19) wells on DRL status reported an IP, including:
  • 19481, 1,094, Hess, Barney 18-1H, Williams, Bakken, 
  • 19737, 1,341, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-1, McKenzie, Bakken,
  • 19900, 1,037, Hess, EN-Cvancara A-155-93-3231H-3, Mountrail, Bakken,
  • 20086, 1,266, Petro-Hunt, Fort Berthold 150-94-3B-10-1H, McKenzie, Bakken,
  • 20772, 1,181, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-1, Mountrail, Bakken,
  • 20901, 1,232, EN-Weyrauch B-154-93-3031H-1, Mountrail, Bakken,
  • 21540, 1,512, GMXR, Evoniuk 21-2-1H, Billings, Bakken,
Three Eternal Energy permits were cancelled; Eternal Energy now has zero (0) permits in North Dakota.

BEXP has temporarily abandoned:
  • 17623, TA, BEXP, Wanner 25 1, Mercer County (Scout Ticket, NDIC, shows it still on the confidential list)
Zenergy transferred one well to Triangle USA Petroleum:
  • 19738, conf, Triangle Petroleum, Frederick James 3-10H, wildcat,
And, rounding out this fairly lengthy report, Armstrong reports a DRY hole:
  • 19975, DRY, Armstrong Operating, Zastoupil 1-7, Stark County; this well was targeting a Lodgepole reef in the Dickinson area; the elusive Lodgepole reef

North Dakota Taxpayers Subsidizing Utility Costs for Neighbors in North Carolina

Link to story about 23 acres of solar panels providing electricity to 600 homes in North Carolina.
Mooresville-based SunEnergy1, which built the system, said it is the largest rooftop system in the state and one of the largest in the nation. A 20-megawatt solar farm that company is building in Plymouth is larger, but it's on the ground.

Toys "R" Us touts the 5.38-megawatt system being built atop its distribution center in New Jersey as the largest in North America, according to the Charlotte Business Journal.

The solar project Ikea plans in the university area will span 3 acres. Its rooftop will support more than 4,000 solar panels and generate 1.3 megawatts per year, enough to power about 100 homes.

The federal government allows a project owner to take 30 percent of the project cost as a federal tax credit. N.C. law allows the owner to take 35 percent of costs as a state tax credit.

The panels have a 25-year warranty, but their useful life could reach 50 years.

Jack Van Der Poel, Shoe Show's vice president and chief financial officer, said that until now, the push for solar power had never gained momentum, because technology was so expensive and paying for projects only by selling the energy took several years.

"But over the last few years, by having these tax credits, the whole project pays for itself in about five to six years," he said. "If you didn't have those, it would probably take a good 20 years.

Read more here:
So, everyone in the state of North Carolina and all US taxpayers help subsidize the utility costs for 600 homes in Cabarrus County, North Carolina.

I think that's very, very generous of us.

This should end the discussion on fairness of farm subsidies and oil depletion tax breaks.

Electric Truck Catches Fire -- Not Once But Twice -- Nothing To Do With the Bakken

Arne sent me this link. I would have missed it.
A hybrid electric truck caught fire twice in Allentown on Wednesday afternoon. The small, but smoky fires warped the front of its 24-foot-long box enclosure, but no one was hurt.

City firefighters let the truck's 24 lithium ion batteries smolder while Zero Truck Corp., the 905 Harrison St. company that owns the truck, called for technicians to remove the batteries safely.

"That's 400 volts," said fire Battalion Chief Scott Henrick. "We're not touching that."

The technicians did not arrive Wednesday, but the truck was moved to a secure lot behind the Zero Truck building. Henrick said company officials hope to have the experts look at the truck Thursday morning.
Wow, talk about a lot of energy in responding and securing, and it appears the story is still not over. The technicians had yet to arrive.

Maybe it's just me, but for the very few coal-powered vehicles that are out there (in comparison to "conventional" vehicles) it sure seems like there are a lot of fires.

Oil Patch Tour of in an Urban Setting -- Los Angeles --

I had never thought of looking for a YouTube video of this subject but it makes sense. I've always been impressed how the Californians have adapted so well to having sucker rod pumpers next to their homes and businesses. In the residential areas, one hardly notices them. In some areas, they are part of industrial parks and look like such. But, in general, not an eyesore except to some. For everyone who does not like them, there is one who loves to see them, such as me (or is it, "such as I love to see them"?).

Here's the YouTube link. I only watched part of it, so if there is something in the video you think I should note, let me know. I will watch it later, after I get some more notes up.

"Anon 1" sent this -- early this morning. Thank you.

What a Great Friday Morning Treat -- Waterflooding Schematic for Surge Energy -- Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

A huge "thank you" to "anon 1" for sending this link on Surge Energy. A lot of questions come in regarding Surge Energy. "Anon 1" sent it to show the waterflooding schematic, slide 11 of 17, for tight oil. Very interesting. Enjoy.