Thursday, March 8, 2012

First Time Unemployment Benefits Rise UNEXPECTEDLY -- One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

Reuters: No evidence that job market is getting worse

Link to Reuters article here.
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week, a government report showed on Thursday, but not enough to change perceptions that the labor market was strengthening.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 362,000, the Labor Department said. Even with the increase, claims are still near their lowest in four years.
"... but not enough to change perceptions that the labor market was strengthening."

Let's see: how long have "we" been saying the labor market was strengthening? I think it's been a couple of years.

Update: about two hours after posting the above note, US NEWS made this observation:
Similarly the warmer weather made it easier for people to get out of their house to go shopping and to eat out at restaurants. It is no surprise that most retailers reported stellar sales in February....For many consumers in the Northeast, natural gas heating bills are down 20-40 percent this year, and that goes a long way to pay for higher gasoline prices at the pump.

As a result I suspect we will get a somewhat more sober picture of the economy with the March and April data. My guess is that we will get some "payback" in the form of a slower growing labor market and somewhat weaker consumption. The consumer side of the economy will still be growing, but it won't look as strong as it does now. Indeed, by May, with home heating costs no longer offsetting higher gasoline prices, we might once again hear talk of another slowdown.
As noted, one step forward, two steps back. Killing the Keystone XL keeps looking like a most ill-advised and irresponsible decision.

2 comments:

  1. I'd hardly consider 8000 two steps back. Look at the numbers. Based on the past few months it's more like 5 steps forward and one step back.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was looking at the broader picture, not just the past few months.

      The unemployment rate for the past three months as posted by Gallup: 8.5% (December), 8.6% (January); and 9.1% (February) -- the most recent reporting period.

      Yeah, I think the one step forward, two steps back is just about right.

      Delete