Saturday, December 17, 2011

Truer Words Never Spoken --

Minyanville did not mince any words discussing the president's decision to pull all US troops out of Iraq.

I said earlier, before I saw the Minyanville post, that the president was throwing Iraq under the bus. I guess I'm not the only one who has said that.

Regardless, for investors, an opportunity.
By year-end, all US military personnel will be out of Iraq, and the newly formed Iraqi security forces will be tasked with keeping the peace, protecting the oil fields, and repelling attacks from enemies of the state.

This marks the conclusion of US military presence in Iraq since 2003. It also serves as a rather unpopular topic of political discussion, especially given the election year that's fast approaching.

But, then again, war is never a popular topic to stump on during an election year.

Should civil war or an incursion happen before November 4, 2012, then the blood spilled, the hundreds of billions of dollars spent, and the forfeiture of oil reparations to pay for the war will paint this seemingly clever political maneuver as selfish and foolish.

That's the risk a president takes, however, when he doesn't listen to the military tactics of his generals.

This type of political posturing is just one of the reasons it would behoove America greatly to rapidly expand its domestic onshore energy policy.
It's rare for business analysts to be so direct when discussing events in the political arena, although I'm starting to see a bit more, although it is still rare.

It looks like Maliki is history unless he allies himself with Iran. 

For Investors Only -- Miscellaneous Links

1. Thursday, December 15, 2011: KOG up 3%.

2. KOG's year in review, 2011, Motley Fool.
At the end of 2010, KOG put forth its 2011 capital spending plan for the coming year. At $200 million, it was the largest projected investment in the company's history. Kodiak planned to drill 28 gross wells and complete 26 gross wells in the Bakken and Three Forks oil plays in North Dakota. The company expected to average 5,000 to 6,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, finishing the year at a production rate of 9,000 BOE/D. Let's see how things shaped up.
Motley Fool looks how the year panned out for KOG. 

3. Motley Fool picks KOG for 2012; the street's not so sure  -- Denver Business Journal

4. How will SSN do in 2012? -- Motley Fool

5. A great 2011 for SSN. -- Motley Fool

6. Whiting USA Trust II files for IPO of up to $385 million. -- Reuters

7. Raymond James says best stock picks may double in 2012 -- includes CVX, WLL.  Raymond James listed 13 stocks in order of potential upside: CVX was #11; WLL was #3.

8. Four energy plays that don't need an army -- includes CLR. Minyanville.

This is not an investment site; see disclaimer at sidebar at the right. I invest in stocks in the Bakken, but I do not trade in those companies. I accumulate shares and hold them over the long term. I will not be buying any new shares or selling any shares related to the Bakken in the next month or so.

Two Wells Recently Spudded in Mercer County -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA


March 13, 2012: "no" oil in Mercer County -- ND geologist. The link is to a Bismarck Tribune article by Lauren Donovan. Something tells me he wishes he had not driven to Beulah for the presentation. His thoughts were summed up by this line: "...the analysis for Mercer County presented Monday night by State Geologist Ed Murphy was not dazzling." I assume the link will eventually break, but don't go looking for it; you won't be missing anything. I don't know if the local farmers were happy to hear this or not, but based on all the Debbie Downer stories, I assume the Mercer County farmers, in general, were thrilled. "Hot damn."

January 27, 2011: someone recently asked if there was any "new" drilling in Mercer County in 2011. I think the original post (below) answered that question.

Just out of curiosity, I looked permits issued for Mercer County:

The two permits in the original post below, #17623 and #17877 were issued in 2008.

One one permit issued for Mercer County in 2009:
  • 17955, PNC, CLR, permit expired
I do not find any permits issued for Mercer Count in 2010 in my data base; hard to believe; I may have missed one or two.

For 2011, I find only one permit
  • 21284, DRY (9/26/13), Cirque Resources, Old Engine Oil 16-4H, Wildcat, Mercer, s10/24/11; still on "drl" status as of August 17, 2012.
Original Post

Someone noted two wells being drilled in Mercer County; these are true wildcats. Can't wait to see what they find:
  • 17623, TA-->DRY-->PNC, Statoil/BEXP, Wanner 25 1-H, Wildcat, Mercer County; s11/6/11; placed on temporarily abandoned list on February 10, 2012
  • 21284, DRY (9/26/13), Cirque Resources, Old Engine Oil 16-4H, Wildcat, Mercer, s10/24/11
I think these are the farthest east and south of the de-risked Bakken.

From what I can tell, there's nothing in Mercer County, yet. Here's an "old" CLR Mercer County well that appears to be a bust:
  • 17877, PA/84, CLR, Traxel 1-31H, Wildcat/Beaver Creek Bay, Mercer County; s8/09; t12/09; cum 12K 12/13; even so, it continues to show up on the NDIC dockets requesting spacing and permission to develop; I don't get it, but if this well ever pans out, .....

Again, No Housing Available In the Bakken Oil Patch -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

The Dickinson Press link here.

This can't be said too many times: don't come to western North Dakota without having a place to stay lined up before you get here.

There is "no" room at the inn.

The town does not have a homeless shelter.

If rooms are available at a local motel -- and there is some slack in that arena -- some rooms becoming available that we haven't seen in the recent past -- the rates are generally $189/night and as high as $250/night  in some motels, particularly those that have suites.

Traveling Today -- Less Blogging

Random Observation: Front Page News in LA Times -- North Dakota Flood Victims Still Awaiting Aid

LA Times link here.

The link takes you to the Saturday edition (December 17, 2011) of the LA Times. On the front page, third story down is the headline: North Dakota Flood Victims Still Awaiting Aid.

I'm sure by the time most people read this post, the page will have changed, but I find it remarkable that this would be a front-page story in the LA Times. I did not read the article. I can only imagine the reason for this being a front-page story, but I am quite surprised.