Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Six (6) New Permits -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report, October 25, 2011 --

Operators: CLR (4), Petro Harvester, Hess

Fields: East Fork, Indian Hill, Sergis, Oliver, WIldrose.

Hess has a wildcat in Williams.

A dry hole reported:
  • 15602, DRY, Baleen, LLC, Quantum Wanner 27-1, Stark County, Wildcat, this was yet another stab at the Lodgepole -- hard to find. This well was spud in April, 2007, and didn't do anything; the company considered other options before finally asking the state for permission to permanently abandon the well.
Results of only one well reported
  • 20047, 95, Murex, Olivia Marie 32-5H, McGregor Field, Williams, Bakken; it's in a good field; I would have expected better; I don't see the frack report in the well file but I might have missed it

Nabors, QEP and National OIlwell Varco All Beat Estimates -- For Investors Only -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link to "Earnings Central" at sidebar at the right. Nabors report was particularly interesting.

Tomorrow, COP and HES report.

XOM will report at the end of the week.

Maybe It's Just a Slow Day For Bakken News -- And That's Why I Post This ...

.. but it's actually a very good article explaining why banks don't want your money.

It's really quite interesting.
Bankers have an odd-sounding problem these days: they are awash in cash.
Droves of consumers and businesses unnerved by the lurching markets have been taking their money out of risky investments and socking it away in bank accounts, where it does little to stimulate the economy.
And it costs banks to insure that money, a cost they don't like to incur.

Take It From a Retired Wildlife Biologist -- Wind Turbines and 007: License to Kill


From MDU message board, don't listen to me, listen to a retired wildlife biologist -- pretty sad --
Just some of my thoughts re wind farms. First, be advised that I am a retired wildlife biologist with 35 years professional experience and even though I have been away from the field for many years the principles have not changed. Many hundreds of thousands of birds will be killed flying into the paths of blades. Especially during migration periods. Evolution has not provided behavioral modification to protect birds from 100 MPH blade tips any more than 70 MPH vehicles. Many or even most of the bird strikes will go undetected and/or unreported since predators and scavengers will clean up the mess and we will not know the full impacts unless specific long term studies are completed. I doubt there will ever be any modifications or limitations or prohibitions imposed upon the industry.

Original Post
The whooping cranes are passing through North Dakota on their migration south. Many of them will end up just south of where I live in San Antonio, Texas. My wife and I have gone out to see them on several occasions. Quite magnificent.

This is the quote from Mike Szymanski, waterfowl biologist for the North Dakota Game and Fish Department:
When disturbed, Szymanski said they [whooping cranes, not biologists] can risk injury or death from power lines, barbed wired fences or other obstructions.
I'm not exactly sure what he meant by "when disturbed." But it is interesting that he left out the most contentious issue at the moment regarding whooping cranes and other migratory birds: wind turbines. I guess wind turbines fall under the category of "other obstructions."

He did note:
Szymanski said hunters and others can confuse whooping cranes with pelicans, swans or egrets and its a violation to disturb whooping cranes.
The US Fish and Wildlife Service has applied for an exemption to allow wind turbines to kill whooping cranes:
Back in July, 2011, Reuters reported that the Obama administration is working on a plan that will permit wind developers to kill endangered whooping cranes who fly in the path of the turbine blades.
The formal language of the Administration is less pointed but the impact the same.
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service intends to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on a proposed application for an Incidental Take Permit (ITP) issued under Section 10(a)(1)(B) of the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended (Act).
If approved, wind developers will be permitted to 'take' an unspecified number of endangered species including the whooping crane. 'Take' under the Endangered Species Act, is defined as the injuring or killing of endangered species. 
I don't know where this application stands. 

By the way, if you are in the Corpus Christi, Texas, area this winter, you should take time to visit the whooping cranes. These are our favorite tour guides: Rockport Birding and Kayak Adventures. Captain Tommy Moore uses very small boats, and gets very, very close to the whooping cranes as well as scores of other species. I believe my wife cataloged 125 different species when she last went out. The birds are very used to these small, unobtrusive boats and continue to feed, almost no matter how close we get. You are guaranteed to see whooping cranes. In addition, there is a very good chance you will see some dolphins in the gulf on the way out to the birding sites.

On Track for 1,902 New Permits for Calendar Year, 2011 -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

As of yesterday, October 24, 2011, the state of North Dakota had issued 1,522 new permits for oil wells. This is on track for 1,902 permits this calendar year.

Comparing this to past years:

  • 2006: 422
  • 2007: 497
  • 2008: 953
  • 2009: 626
  • 2010: 1,680
  • 2011: 1,902 (est) -- ACTUAL: 1,926
The 1,726 is impressive, but look at that jump from 2009 to 2010.

My figure of 1,522 is based on my data base. It will probably vary with the official state statistics, but not by much. I update the daily activity report with new permits on a daily basis.

Update on Six Wells on "One" Pad -- Pleasant Valley -- Hess -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.

This update provides a bit more detail on issues regarding fracking, cost of fracking, different strategies, etc.

This helps one understand the difference between the Hess strategy and the BEXP strategy, at least with one snapshot in time.

Cap and Trade on Airlines -- The President Does Not Support -- And a Bit of Trivia At the End -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

I saw the headline last night but did not read the story. Link here.

The US House of Representatives on a voice vote rejected the EU decision to place cap and trade controls on European airlines. But that was not the best part.

Don noted a bit of trivia with regard to the story that warmed the cockles of my heart and thus thought it deserved posting.
With the legislation, which passed by voice vote, lawmakers joined the airline industry and the Obama administration in opposing the EU Emissions Trading Scheme scheduled to go into effect on Jan. 1. The bill now goes to the Senate, where there is currently no companion legislation.

The measure directs the transportation secretary to prohibit U.S. carriers from participating in the program if it is unilaterally imposed. It also tells other federal agencies to take steps necessary to ensure that U.S. carriers are not penalized by the emissions control scheme.
It's hard for me to believe that the president did not support the EU initiative. According to Al Gore, the greatest threat to humankind is global warming, and airlines are some of the biggest offenders of emitting greenhouse gases.

Of course, everything in that last sentence is bogus but that's another story.

By the way, I'm reading a great book: The Great Sea, David Abulafia, c. 2011. From page 6:
Change, when it occurred, took place very slowly, ... around 8000 BC there was a very gradual warming [similar to what might be going on now], and this resulted in changes in flora and fauna [plants and animals] that sometimes set these small groups of people on the move in search of their traditional prey, and sometimes encouraged a search for alternative types of food, especially that provided by the sea. The sea gradually rose, by as must as 120 meters, as the ice caps melted. The contours of the modern Mediterranean become more recognizable as isthmuses turned into islands and sea coast retreated to roughly their current position; but all these was too slow a process to be readily visible..
I can only assume this global warming in 8000 BC was due to all the coal-powered utility plants in wide use in Europe at the time.

The Vikings would come later, and with their coal-powered ships transiting the Atlantic Ocean would cause the global warming that allowed colonizing Iceland, Greenland, and Nova Scotia.

Think Tank RAND Retracts Recent Study -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

The subject of the story does not interest me. Link here.

What interests me is the fact that one of the most renowned think tanks, RAND Corp, made a huge mistake by data mining web sites without confirming the source or the accuracy, it appears. On the surface, it appears that RAND simply mined internet data, probably using google searches for the most part.
The Rand researchers relied on data posted by CrimeReports.com, which they mistakenly believed included LAPD data. Knopman said Rand was not blaming the website. She said Rand reviewers, digging deeply into the data, only recently discovered that it did not include LAPD reports.
This is an understatement:
He said he could understand how the researchers might have made the mistake, but also said they ought to have noticed the lack of crime reported in Los Angeles as compared to other cities. "I think they should have been able to figure it out by seeing a huge pocket of no crime data," he said.
And then, as one delves deeper, it seems to get worse. RAND used only 20 days of data -- 20 days of data, incredible -- and admitted there was a huge margin of error. It seems that with such little data, and admitting a huge margin of error, this report should never have been released in the first place.

One has concern that RAND was rushing to be politically correct in California.

For Investors Only -- Filloon's Series on Bakken Small Cap Stocks -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Part I.
Part II.
Part III.
Part IV.
Part V.
Part VI.
Part VII.
Part VIII.

Small caps are on a tear, as investors continue to buy risk. The Bakken has been a focus area of this move as Brigham was purchased by Statoil. The Brigham sale has induced investment in the remaining players as companies are inexpensive. This could cause a period of consolidation as other names, like Petrohawk, have also been purchased. One thing is certain, is there will be other companies purchased, especially those with large, concentrated acreage.
And after tonight's feature story -- the Bakken -- on Brian Williams' new show, the interest will grow exponentially.

Of the Seven Most Recently Reported Wells, One Dry, Two Reported IPs; Four Not Completed

Link here.

The fracking backlog continues. Of the seven wells most recently reported, four were placed on DRL status meaning that they were not completed/fracked within the six month confidential period.

One was dry, but it was due to problems with drilling. The well was in a de-risked area; it was not a wildcat.

One of the two other wells was a nice Petro-Hunt well in the very good Charlson field:

Random Comment on Chesapeake Wells in Southwest North Dakota -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Gary sent me this information some time ago. I think I posted some of it, but can't remember how much. Again, this helps me understand the activity in the Williston Basin:
In regards to the Chesapeake wells in southern Stark County: If those wells hit with viable production numbers, Dickinson has just seen the tip of a full blown oil frenzy around here... But my real comment on the drilling rigs still being on site.. In talking to a knowledgeable driller just a few weeks ago he made the comment that there is a shortage of work over rigs and that the rigs are staying on the pad and doing a lot of the jobs that the work over rigs used to do. No doubt also because of a shortage of fracking crews, also. 

Stark County Trivia -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

A big "thank you" to Gary for forwarding me this information. In the big scheme of things, not important, but it helps me understand the Bakken activity a whole lot better. Again, a big thank you:
  • 20449, DRY, Whiting, Marsh 21-16TFH, Dutch Henry Butte, TF
According to Gary: The Marsh well that was "Dry."  They screwed up when they where cementing the casing to isolate the fresh water aquifers from the well.  I heard they got the depth of cement wrong so they had to start over with a new permit and hole.. skidded the rig a few feet and got busy and drilled another whole on same pad... I guess it worked because that rig is on the Solberg Pad now...  
The re-entry well:
  • 21483, 2,503, Whiting, Marsh 21-16TFH-R; Dutch Henry Butte; another nice well; a re-entry; t11/11; cum 57K 3/12;
There are "no" dry wells in the Bakken.