Monday, December 12, 2011

Another Analyst Discovers the Bakken, North Dakota, USA

SeekingAlpha link here.
We continue to see an exciting transformation within the US oil and gas business. Buoyed by high global oil prices, solid growth is being reported across the entire sector. Drilling down further into the data, into the shale patch specifically, the advent of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking has led to some exceptional growth. Consequently new investment stars have emerged in the names of Brigham, Northern, and Kodiak.

From 2010 to 2011 these logged sales growth of 150%, 230% and 450% and from 2011 to 2012 they are projected to bump sales by a further 90%, 100%, and 330%. These are enviable growth figures, especially considering the weak economic backdrop.
It looks like the analyst was a bit slow on BEXP; it is no longer listed. 

The analyst notes:
A broad rule of thumb is to construct full year 2013 EPS estimates by up to five times Q4’12 EPS for high growth companies, four times Q4’12 EPS (or occasionally less) for low growth companies and something in-between for others.
The analyst lists almost every independent shale oil and gas operator, but singles out these five:
  • Hess
  • Kodiak
  • Whiting
  • Carrizo Oil and Gas
  • Plains Exploration
Of course, my two favorite are KOG and WLL.
This is not an investment site; see disclaimer on the right. When I say a particular company is a favorite of mine, it has nothing to do with investing. It has to do with the company's business model, niche, execution of business model, etc. When I say I like a particular company, I am talking about the company, not the share price. Generally speaking, it's been my experience that a company with a great business model, a great niche, a wide moat, great execution, etc., will also be a great company for a long-term investor.

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